Essential Research: 56-44 to Coalition
The latest Essential Research result has Labor gaining a point on two-party preferred for the second week in a row, with the Coalition now leading 56-44, and has Labor gaining three points on the primary vote – a very unusual occurrence in this series, which publishes weekly results derived from a two-week rolling average. Labor’s primary vote is at 33%, with the Coalition and the Greens each down a point to 49% and 10% respectively.
The first of the supplementary questions measures respondents’ knowledge rather than opinions: namely, the question of whether interest rates are higher or lower now than they were when Labor came to power, the purpose presumably being to determine whether misapprehensions are behind Labor’s diabolical polling. A majority (35% to 20%) were in fact aware that they were now lower, but only 10% thought they were a little lower against 25% for a lot, when the official interest rate has in fact gone from 6.75% to 3.75%. Respondents were then asked how much credit they gave Labor for the drop: 7% said a lot, 19% a fair amount, 27% a little and 35% none. Further questions cover the casualisation of the workforce, the mining boom, the value of various industries to average Australians, and the notion that the government is engaged in “class warfare” (28% agree, 46% disagree).
Further polling snippets:
• Yesterday’s Sunday Mail reported that the Galaxy poll of Queensland respondents covered in the previous post also found that Kevin Rudd’s lead over Julia Gillard in the state at 67-21, and at 62-37 among Labor voters.
• News Limited tabloids carried another Galaxy poll yesterday, this one conducted online from a national sample of 606, which showed support for gay marriage at 50% against 33% opposed. However, 26% of respondents said legislation to allow gay marriage would make them less likely to vote Labor, against only 22% who said more likely.
• Labor has gone public with polling conducted for it by UMR Research, which apparently found that 25% of respondents “would vote for” Julian Assange if he ran for a Senate seat. This tendency was fairly evenly spread among supporters of different parties: 39% for Greens, 26% for Labor and 23% for Coalition. The combined figure is similar to the 23% of respondents to a Galaxy poll in September last year who rated themselves “likely” to vote for Katter’s Australian Party at the Queensland state election: 11.5% would actually do so. It is not clear if the poll was entirely national, as the report from Phillip Coorey in the Sydney Morning Herald only spoke of results from New South Wales and Victoria, which perhaps surprisingly showed slightly stronger support for Assange in the former.
Preselection:
• Tasmanian Labor Senator Nick Sherry, who had already announced he would not contest the next election, has brought forward his retirement. David Killick of The Mercury reports the vacancy looks set to be filled by Lin Thorp, member for the state upper house seat of Rumney from 1999 until her defeat in 2011. Thorp has the backing of Sherry’s Left faction, including from Premier Lara Giddings. However, earlier reports suggested others in the Left wanted a younger candidate, and that a move was on to have the party’s administrative committee reserve the position for a candidate from northern Tasmanian – with Launceston commercial lawyer Ross Hart fitting the bill on both counts. Notably, Unions Tasmania secretary Kevin Harkins, who was said to have been locked out preselection in 2007 because Kevin Rudd had him confused with Kevin Reynolds, and again in 2010 because Rudd did not want to admit to his mistake, had ruled himself out because “we’re likely to have a very conservative government in just a tad over 12 months’ time, (and) the best place for me is with the union movement”.
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
davidwh
This is where I suspect you agree with Anthony Albanese. That conservatives uphold the rule of law and respect our democratic traditions.
Obviously the current Coalition is not conservative.
by guytaur on May 21, 2012 at 5:21 pm
Not true:
http://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/House_of_Representatives/Powers_practice_and_procedure/00_-_Infosheets/Infosheet_17_-_Citizens_right_of_reply
by ShowsOn on May 21, 2012 at 5:21 pm
Secondarily Not a bad effort from Thompson, My only criticism is how the speech started, I feel he should have started off talking about his background and the history of his time at the HSU then turned his attention to both the allegations and the media
by mexicanbeemer on May 21, 2012 at 5:22 pm
IT’S THE TREND THAT WILL SAVE US ALL!
by ShowsOn on May 21, 2012 at 5:22 pm
ltep
Jackson seems to think she will be able to address the reps, Obama or SBY style.
by ruawake on May 21, 2012 at 5:22 pm
cat@momma – I missed that but how interesting. I wonder if Thomson has picked that up.
I loved the way Marc Balano said ‘no I wasn’t a union executive I was an organiser’. Love that word ‘organiser’
by BH on May 21, 2012 at 5:23 pm
Well that’s certainly not likely to happen ruawake. It’d be completely inappropriate in my view.
by ltep on May 21, 2012 at 5:25 pm
beemer
I don’t think I said that that only unintelligent people vote conservatively. Puff and Dee have a better handle on the research.
I’m too thomsoned-out to bother with it now.
by lizzie on May 21, 2012 at 5:25 pm
MB
He did mention what he did there.
by Schnappi on May 21, 2012 at 5:25 pm
Shows off
Your incessant use of upper case is very annoying.
by Brian Mc on May 21, 2012 at 5:26 pm
Guytaur it is possible Thomson is innocent and for an innocent person to be subjected to what he has is unconscionable. So yes I agree with AA that people should shut up and let justice run its course.
by davidwh on May 21, 2012 at 5:26 pm
Aside from the Thomson crap
I cant believe PB has not picked up on the class war polling. It is a clear wedge to drive voters back from the coalition.
by bluegreen on May 21, 2012 at 5:26 pm
No you didn’t say “only”, I couldn’t think of a better way of putting it
by mexicanbeemer on May 21, 2012 at 5:27 pm
He is just trying to show-off his densities
by The Finnigans on May 21, 2012 at 5:27 pm
I see Tony’s boy, Uhlmann, will be doing some more work for him tonight.
by BH on May 21, 2012 at 5:27 pm
IT SHOULD BE BALANCED BY BOLDING THE TEXT AS WELL!!!!
by bluegreen on May 21, 2012 at 5:27 pm
mb,
Not sure which speech you were listening to. However, that is precisely what he did.
by Greensborough Growler on May 21, 2012 at 5:28 pm
Thomson has released a statement reminding all the things he raised are on the public record.
Therefore he has not abused Parliament.
by guytaur on May 21, 2012 at 5:28 pm
I’ll ask when I get a chance where Craig lived prior to his current Bateau Bay address. What I do remember is the Bateau Bay house is new and the Thomson’s didn’t move in till 2009 as it was being built for them. What suburb they lived in prior to that, as I said, I will find out. Although it should be in Parliament House records, or AEC records from 2007, I would have thought.
by C@tmomma on May 21, 2012 at 5:29 pm
Schnappi
Yes, I knew Thomson did, my point was it may have been better to have started with that rather than with his opening comments about the sort of crap that sadly too many pollies receive from people
by mexicanbeemer on May 21, 2012 at 5:29 pm
I”M REALLY SORRY ABOUT THAT I”LL TRY NOT TO DO IT EVER AGAIN BECAUSE I WOULDN”T WANT TO UPSET YOUR SENSIBILITIES.
by ShowsOn on May 21, 2012 at 5:30 pm
GG
I was writing about how I would have structured the speech, I know he spoke in very good detail and I though he did so pretty well for someone clearly under pressure
by mexicanbeemer on May 21, 2012 at 5:30 pm
Possums link to the class war polling
http://yfrog.com/hwjhrkp
by bluegreen on May 21, 2012 at 5:30 pm
And underlining it for special effect
by mexicanbeemer on May 21, 2012 at 5:31 pm
blue and green
Upper case plus bolding is very, very annoying. Let’s hope in your case it’s a one-off aberration.
by Brian Mc on May 21, 2012 at 5:31 pm
BG,
“Class war” is actually Liberal code for “you means tested my middle class welfare”.
All Labor has done is put a few limitations on people earning $150k plus.
by Greensborough Growler on May 21, 2012 at 5:31 pm
BH@455,
It’s not what they say, it’s what they don’t mean to say.
by C@tmomma on May 21, 2012 at 5:31 pm
I can see many people, #MSMhacks, Opposition etc are very disappointed that they cant pin misleading the Parliament tag on Thomson
by The Finnigans on May 21, 2012 at 5:32 pm
by guytaur on May 21, 2012 at 5:33 pm
That and the fake credit are a couple of things Uhlmann could ask Jackson about.
by BH on May 21, 2012 at 5:33 pm
Of course people have picked up on it – it’s just not the subjet under discussion ATM
by Tom Hawkins on May 21, 2012 at 5:34 pm
GG
I actually think the linking of Tony Abbott with the North Shore and trimming the upper end of welfare is a great strategy.
it was clumsy to say they are not real families. That distracted the debate somewhat. But overall the strategy is solid.
by bluegreen on May 21, 2012 at 5:35 pm
Have any PBer’s found any statements regarding KJ when her former husband was setup in a similar fashion?
by Dee on May 21, 2012 at 5:35 pm
[Upper case plus bolding is very, very annoying. Let’s hope in your case it’s a one-off aberration.
YES I AGREE, IT IS HORRIBLE.
by ShowsOn on May 21, 2012 at 5:35 pm
Capital Hill
It’s amusing (not) how often journos can get something wrong. Curtis just reported Thomson accusing Ch7 of “hiding outside his bedroom window.”
Well no, actually.
by lizzie on May 21, 2012 at 5:36 pm
Funny how Andrew, over active, 7 day a week, fact free, blogging is accusing Emerson of indulgent, time wasting, week end, tweeting.
by joe2 on May 21, 2012 at 5:36 pm
Interesting to note the Noposition only ever refers to the FWA Report to make their case about Thomson’s guilt but not the AEC Report that contradicts it.
by C@tmomma on May 21, 2012 at 5:36 pm
I think it is one thing to have a crack at Tone for saying that a family earning over $150k is struggling and worthy of government assistance, but I just don’t like the the bit about o so they live in North Sydney
by mexicanbeemer on May 21, 2012 at 5:37 pm
ruawake
Get your facts right.
http://www.skynews.com.au/topstories/article.aspx?id=752537&vId=
by Gauss on May 21, 2012 at 5:37 pm
Lizzie at 356
Jackson reckons she decided to go after Thomson 3 days after she was discharged after consuming several bottles of wine with Lawler and expects people to believe she never mentioned any of this to Lawler during their drinking session.Pigs Arse.
by canasta76 on May 21, 2012 at 5:37 pm
joe2@485,
Blogging is just long-form Tweeting after all!
by C@tmomma on May 21, 2012 at 5:37 pm
lizzie
Yes. Those mistakes are then run with as if they are facts
by guytaur on May 21, 2012 at 5:38 pm
FYI – I don’t live in North Sydney
by mexicanbeemer on May 21, 2012 at 5:38 pm
BG,
Gratuitous bulldust.
There is nothing to demonstrate the Government’s strategy has been anything but a success. Quibbling just makes you look like a sore loser as Gillard’s strategy actually works.
by Greensborough Growler on May 21, 2012 at 5:39 pm
@abcmarkscott You are kidding me that @CUhlmann is interviewing Kathy Jackson tonight on @abc730. It’s like the Vampire interviews Dracula
by The Finnigans on May 21, 2012 at 5:39 pm
guytaur
Chinese whispers is the favourite game of our super-intelligent, caring msm.
by lizzie on May 21, 2012 at 5:40 pm
Class war wins for the Government – the ALP would have picked it up in polling months ago. The ALP need to get the “battlers” back to their PV. It’s just taking time. Expect more in next years budget. They’ll be looking for a PV of a minimum of 39/40 by June next year. Doubt if they’ll make it – but that’s their strategy. Back to base.
by al palster on May 21, 2012 at 5:40 pm
Bolano has the vestiges of a Cockney accent. He glottal stops and as well says “fings” for things.Makes him sound like a spiv.
Jackson’s accent has a touch of it as well. Must be like Kiwi accents which are contageous if you are at close quarters with one for a while.
by dany le roux on May 21, 2012 at 5:40 pm
BH@479,
But won’t.
by C@tmomma on May 21, 2012 at 5:40 pm
cat@momma – yes and that word ‘fake’ conjures up something that may need looking at further.
Morris made a comment on Agenda wtte that whoever wrote the speech for Thommo was very smart in carefully allocating all his remarks to things that were already in the public domain via the media or FWA or other sources. He cannot then be found to have misled Parliament. Morris seemed quite miffed about this.
by BH on May 21, 2012 at 5:41 pm