Essential Research: 56-44 to Coalition
The latest Essential Research result has Labor gaining a point on two-party preferred for the second week in a row, with the Coalition now leading 56-44, and has Labor gaining three points on the primary vote – a very unusual occurrence in this series, which publishes weekly results derived from a two-week rolling average. Labor’s primary vote is at 33%, with the Coalition and the Greens each down a point to 49% and 10% respectively.
The first of the supplementary questions measures respondents’ knowledge rather than opinions: namely, the question of whether interest rates are higher or lower now than they were when Labor came to power, the purpose presumably being to determine whether misapprehensions are behind Labor’s diabolical polling. A majority (35% to 20%) were in fact aware that they were now lower, but only 10% thought they were a little lower against 25% for a lot, when the official interest rate has in fact gone from 6.75% to 3.75%. Respondents were then asked how much credit they gave Labor for the drop: 7% said a lot, 19% a fair amount, 27% a little and 35% none. Further questions cover the casualisation of the workforce, the mining boom, the value of various industries to average Australians, and the notion that the government is engaged in “class warfare” (28% agree, 46% disagree).
Further polling snippets:
• Yesterday’s Sunday Mail reported that the Galaxy poll of Queensland respondents covered in the previous post also found that Kevin Rudd’s lead over Julia Gillard in the state at 67-21, and at 62-37 among Labor voters.
• News Limited tabloids carried another Galaxy poll yesterday, this one conducted online from a national sample of 606, which showed support for gay marriage at 50% against 33% opposed. However, 26% of respondents said legislation to allow gay marriage would make them less likely to vote Labor, against only 22% who said more likely.
• Labor has gone public with polling conducted for it by UMR Research, which apparently found that 25% of respondents “would vote for” Julian Assange if he ran for a Senate seat. This tendency was fairly evenly spread among supporters of different parties: 39% for Greens, 26% for Labor and 23% for Coalition. The combined figure is similar to the 23% of respondents to a Galaxy poll in September last year who rated themselves “likely” to vote for Katter’s Australian Party at the Queensland state election: 11.5% would actually do so. It is not clear if the poll was entirely national, as the report from Phillip Coorey in the Sydney Morning Herald only spoke of results from New South Wales and Victoria, which perhaps surprisingly showed slightly stronger support for Assange in the former.
Preselection:
• Tasmanian Labor Senator Nick Sherry, who had already announced he would not contest the next election, has brought forward his retirement. David Killick of The Mercury reports the vacancy looks set to be filled by Lin Thorp, member for the state upper house seat of Rumney from 1999 until her defeat in 2011. Thorp has the backing of Sherry’s Left faction, including from Premier Lara Giddings. However, earlier reports suggested others in the Left wanted a younger candidate, and that a move was on to have the party’s administrative committee reserve the position for a candidate from northern Tasmanian – with Launceston commercial lawyer Ross Hart fitting the bill on both counts. Notably, Unions Tasmania secretary Kevin Harkins, who was said to have been locked out preselection in 2007 because Kevin Rudd had him confused with Kevin Reynolds, and again in 2010 because Rudd did not want to admit to his mistake, had ruled himself out because “we’re likely to have a very conservative government in just a tad over 12 months’ time, (and) the best place for me is with the union movement”.
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
bg
Oh what a pity. The loss of one of his numbers would shut Abbott up again just like the period when Slipper was in the Chair.
by guytaur on May 24, 2012 at 12:14 pm
kezza2,
No. He looked ok. Told them that if they had any information to add to the matter to send it to any one of nine enquiries.
But how he is fronting up to media and what he is like behind the scenes ar two different things.
by Space Kidette on May 24, 2012 at 12:14 pm
In my own ineffectual way I have set up an #aca_no_way hashtag to try to do just this.
by Bushfire Bill on May 24, 2012 at 12:15 pm
bg, or impose a fine. They can also just agree to a motion acknowledging a person has committed a contempt.
As to whether Grattan will be called before the committee, I find that unlikely. Most likely the chair will make inquiries and the committee will remind members of the importance of keeping the internal deliberations of private committee meetings private.
by ltep on May 24, 2012 at 12:16 pm
bb
Careful what you post. Jonathan Holmes will start following just to see how many followers there are and their comments.
by guytaur on May 24, 2012 at 12:17 pm
Whomever did the leaking to Old Coke Bottles would probably be better off making a full confession and making the appropriate apologies for having a big mouth. Better than being found out and suffering the stiff penalties that could be brought to bear for such an offence.
by janice2 on May 24, 2012 at 12:17 pm
Good news. St George reversed decision to outsource jobs.
by guytaur on May 24, 2012 at 12:19 pm
BH @4453 It was me! With your permission I’ll keep your comment stored on my site with the pome and post I wrote about this. It seems as simple a way as any of starting a list. It was actually joe2 who made the first move, and I followed up, so I’m not sure how he feels about at least making our comments more than a gesture if someone or something much bigger than us doesn’t step in, and real need arises.
http://polliepomes.wordpress.com/2012/05/23/yes-i-do-believe-him-but-have-doubts-about-her/
by PatriciaWA on May 24, 2012 at 12:19 pm
Krzza not rattled at all , just very sad,
Not any of the below
thrown into a state of agitated confusion; (`rattled’ is an informal term) flustered, hot and bothered, perturbed colloquialism – a colloquial expression; characteristic of spoken or written communication that seeks to imitate informal speech discomposed – having your composure disturbed; “looked about with a wandering and discomposed air”
by my say on May 24, 2012 at 12:19 pm
Janice I think there are many people out there who have no worries about which party governs providing they govern in what they believe to be in the best interests of the country and of course themselves. I think many are frustrated by this minority government and negative opposition and won’t change until they get a chance to end it one way or the other. Sadly I think the country will tread water at best until at least the next election.
by davidwh on May 24, 2012 at 12:19 pm
http://www.thefreedictionary.com/rattled
by my say on May 24, 2012 at 12:20 pm
Prof Helen Partridge at Queensland Universtity want regular twitter users to do a study about the told of twitter in our lives.
by guytaur on May 24, 2012 at 12:21 pm
davidwh
You must have missed the meme. This country is not treading water. The OECD gives us tick of being best in world
by victoria on May 24, 2012 at 12:21 pm
Maybe the lady saw CT’s “Wog” turn to “Woollongong”.
If we are talking a high class lady, she would be earning $thousands per week.
$60,000 represents only a fraction of her year’s income and her reputation trashed. She would have to go onto hiding.
ACA have bought the TV story of the century far too cheap.
Indicates lady concerned is from the other side of the business.
by deewhytony on May 24, 2012 at 12:22 pm
Finns
Isn’t bringing jobs from offshore to onshore a BISON? The St George decision.
by guytaur on May 24, 2012 at 12:22 pm
by Bushfire Bill on May 24, 2012 at 12:23 pm
SMH Take on Thomson
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/enough-is-enough-thomson-20120524-1z63o.html
by guytaur on May 24, 2012 at 12:25 pm
Thanks SK
His voice sounded fine. Not wobbly – like you expect to hear from someone “clearly rattled”
The ABC can’t even read a newspaper article properly. They just reported that the details of the leak from the PC was that Kathy Jackson and Marco Bolano may be asked to front the committee. I mean, this is just BS.
Jackson and Bolano have publicly ASKED to appear before the committee.
The detail leaked was this:
Not one mention of this by the ABC, even though they could have revealed it by the usual means. i.e. “it is reported that . . .”
I’m absolutely sick to death of msm incompetence.
by kezza2 on May 24, 2012 at 12:25 pm
I missed the first sentence but I was surprised at the rest of it. I would not have had the courage to front that screaming pack of donkeys and speak clearly and emphatically but somehow he did. He did the right thing by walking away while they were all still squealing and braying.
by BH on May 24, 2012 at 12:25 pm
Synchronisation of stories meeting completed….back to you rogering
by joe2 on May 24, 2012 at 12:28 pm
Hit them where it hurts. Twitterers out there: Join the hashtag #aca_no_way
by Bushfire Bill on May 24, 2012 at 12:28 pm
Perth treasurer busted over email advice that he should introduce a soveriegn wealth fund because it would distract from debt.
http://www.perthnow.com.au/business/2012-state-budget/wa-treasurers-future-fund-clouded-by-emails/story-fndotr3v-1226363701907
Ha! Don’t they know that that those sort of emails need to be sent to their private email addresses!
by bluegreen on May 24, 2012 at 12:31 pm
Has the ATO (tax office) been notified of the $60,000 payment.
Does the lady have an ABN?
Has ACA reported the payment to the ATO?
When/where was the payment made?
Was it in a brown paper bag?
by deewhytony on May 24, 2012 at 12:31 pm
by guytaur on May 24, 2012 at 12:32 pm
There was a young whore of St Kilda
TV gave her much money, which thrilled her
She said “my this is nice”
And for that kind of price
She’d say Jesus himself had once filled her.
by Marrickville Mauler on May 24, 2012 at 12:32 pm
BH,
The media rat pack haven’t got it into their thick skulls that by doing live crosses we see everything they see and can form our own opinions both on the intereviewee’s statements and on the subsequent commentary they provide.
And the noise is gathering that we don’t like the fact that they are skewing the news to suit theirs (or someone elses) opinion. We know we are being screwed and we are vocal about not liking it.
Their arrogance has them stand there with their arrogance and insist we know nothing about journalism. The point is we don’t need to know about journalism but we do know that what they’re dishing up is pure bullshit.
by Space Kidette on May 24, 2012 at 12:33 pm
By definition parliament should not be able to imprison anyone for 12 months or more. Otherwise the less reputable parliamentary parties (eg the LNP) could stack the privileges committee when in government and effectively get people kicked out on the basis of the constitution.
by Smaug on May 24, 2012 at 12:36 pm
“Craig Thomson Affair” Turning point ?
by Mick Collins on May 24, 2012 at 12:37 pm
SK
Hear Hear
by guytaur on May 24, 2012 at 12:37 pm
And women. However, it’s time to speak up in support of Mr Thomson and condemn the filthy tactics used by the Opposition.
I say to him: Hang in there, comrade. Chin up. And sue the bastards ’til their eyes pop!
by Scringler on May 24, 2012 at 12:38 pm
I doubt to many parents would be directing their children in to jouralism
by my say on May 24, 2012 at 12:41 pm
by victoria on May 24, 2012 at 12:41 pm
Our daughter just sent this through about MSM and how differently they can be seen
http://instagr.am/p/K_famgwJPd/
BB – I’ll find your hashtag, thanks.
SK – Middleton, from her tweets this morning, seems to be feeling troubled by the scrum so let’s hope she can use some influence. Her report on SBS last night didn’t mention Thomson and I think that was deliberate on her part. They did a short piece later in the bulletin but not by her.
by BH on May 24, 2012 at 12:42 pm
If i lived on the mainland i would be letting 9 know with a phone call what i think.
But it the cost of a local call for u all
by my say on May 24, 2012 at 12:43 pm
BB – I’m still learning twitter thing. I’ve got the #aca_no_way but how do I respond to it. Do I do it on my page under @BushfireBill or on the hashtag somehow. Taa in advance
by BH on May 24, 2012 at 12:45 pm
Scringler Posted Thursday, May 24, 2012 at 12:38 pm | Permalink
All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing.
- Edmund Burke.
And women. However, it’s time to speak up in support of Mr Thomson and condemn the filthy tactics used by the Opposition.
I say to him: Hang in there, comrade. Chin up. And sue the bastards ’til their eyes pop!
Well then in this case is any o e ringing his electorate office in support
by my say on May 24, 2012 at 12:48 pm
by victoria on May 24, 2012 at 12:48 pm
Love this one. A question for QT today?
by BH on May 24, 2012 at 12:48 pm
For those who missed it this was posted earlier.
http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2012/4781/
by bluegreen on May 24, 2012 at 12:53 pm
by Space Kidette on May 24, 2012 at 12:55 pm
I wonder if some are hopi g he will just walk awsy,’
Thats why he needs to KNOW we support him
by my say on May 24, 2012 at 12:59 pm
by victoria on May 24, 2012 at 12:59 pm
Wilkie and Katter effectively voted for Abbott’s PPL scheme, which was why the vote was 70-70.
by triton on May 24, 2012 at 1:00 pm
How touching…wonder why they didn’t think of it while they were throwing the stones?
by joe2 on May 24, 2012 at 1:01 pm
DWH
The Government is getting on swimmingly with the business of government and their numbers are very, very good.
It is even getting us out of yet another of our Coalition war-messes.
OTOH, the Opposition is not treading water. It is wallowing in dung.
by Boerwar on May 24, 2012 at 1:01 pm
victoria, I think those concerns will only encourage Abbott. He’ll be thinking that a bit more of this and we’ll get a byelection and maybe government.
by triton on May 24, 2012 at 1:02 pm
bg
Is that statistical fool Morgan comparing apples with oranges again?
by Boerwar on May 24, 2012 at 1:03 pm
You just write the hashtag (in this case #aca_no_way) anywhere in any tweets you send. Just make sure it’s exactly the same (including punctuation). That’s it! You’ve joined a hashtag campaign!
The hashag makes sure they all end up in the same place. IF you get enough people writing the hashtag, it starts trending.
by Bushfire Bill on May 24, 2012 at 1:03 pm
BB – I managed it. Just followed how other’s had done it. Hooray, I’m starting to get it and realise that no spaces needed between tweet names.
We all remember how the Oppn and journos told us to lay off Godwin Grech because of his mental state. After weeks of media torture for Thomson the MSM is now ‘concerned’ for his wellbeing – hit me with a hot iron, somebody. I’m so numb with disbelief about them that I don’t think I’d even feel the pain!
by BH on May 24, 2012 at 1:03 pm
triton
Of course that is the end game for Abbott. He is overreaching. It will backfire
by victoria on May 24, 2012 at 1:04 pm