Essential Research: 56-44 to Coalition
The latest Essential Research result has Labor gaining a point on two-party preferred for the second week in a row, with the Coalition now leading 56-44, and has Labor gaining three points on the primary vote – a very unusual occurrence in this series, which publishes weekly results derived from a two-week rolling average. Labor’s primary vote is at 33%, with the Coalition and the Greens each down a point to 49% and 10% respectively.
The first of the supplementary questions measures respondents’ knowledge rather than opinions: namely, the question of whether interest rates are higher or lower now than they were when Labor came to power, the purpose presumably being to determine whether misapprehensions are behind Labor’s diabolical polling. A majority (35% to 20%) were in fact aware that they were now lower, but only 10% thought they were a little lower against 25% for a lot, when the official interest rate has in fact gone from 6.75% to 3.75%. Respondents were then asked how much credit they gave Labor for the drop: 7% said a lot, 19% a fair amount, 27% a little and 35% none. Further questions cover the casualisation of the workforce, the mining boom, the value of various industries to average Australians, and the notion that the government is engaged in “class warfare” (28% agree, 46% disagree).
Further polling snippets:
• Yesterday’s Sunday Mail reported that the Galaxy poll of Queensland respondents covered in the previous post also found that Kevin Rudd’s lead over Julia Gillard in the state at 67-21, and at 62-37 among Labor voters.
• News Limited tabloids carried another Galaxy poll yesterday, this one conducted online from a national sample of 606, which showed support for gay marriage at 50% against 33% opposed. However, 26% of respondents said legislation to allow gay marriage would make them less likely to vote Labor, against only 22% who said more likely.
• Labor has gone public with polling conducted for it by UMR Research, which apparently found that 25% of respondents “would vote for” Julian Assange if he ran for a Senate seat. This tendency was fairly evenly spread among supporters of different parties: 39% for Greens, 26% for Labor and 23% for Coalition. The combined figure is similar to the 23% of respondents to a Galaxy poll in September last year who rated themselves “likely” to vote for Katter’s Australian Party at the Queensland state election: 11.5% would actually do so. It is not clear if the poll was entirely national, as the report from Phillip Coorey in the Sydney Morning Herald only spoke of results from New South Wales and Victoria, which perhaps surprisingly showed slightly stronger support for Assange in the former.
Preselection:
• Tasmanian Labor Senator Nick Sherry, who had already announced he would not contest the next election, has brought forward his retirement. David Killick of The Mercury reports the vacancy looks set to be filled by Lin Thorp, member for the state upper house seat of Rumney from 1999 until her defeat in 2011. Thorp has the backing of Sherry’s Left faction, including from Premier Lara Giddings. However, earlier reports suggested others in the Left wanted a younger candidate, and that a move was on to have the party’s administrative committee reserve the position for a candidate from northern Tasmanian – with Launceston commercial lawyer Ross Hart fitting the bill on both counts. Notably, Unions Tasmania secretary Kevin Harkins, who was said to have been locked out preselection in 2007 because Kevin Rudd had him confused with Kevin Reynolds, and again in 2010 because Rudd did not want to admit to his mistake, had ruled himself out because “we’re likely to have a very conservative government in just a tad over 12 months’ time, (and) the best place for me is with the union movement”.
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Funny how tweeting is a waste of time but triathlons (or for that matter stunts) are OK.
by Gorilla on May 21, 2012 at 5:41 pm
Katharine Murphy has received tweets which have persuaded her that Thomson got a “mixed reception”. Be interesting to see what she writes tomorrow.
by lizzie on May 21, 2012 at 5:41 pm
ahem
by bluegreen on May 21, 2012 at 5:41 pm
nicely put Finnigans…
by joe2 on May 21, 2012 at 5:42 pm
dany le roux@497,
Minder/Enforcer/Bouncer ?
by C@tmomma on May 21, 2012 at 5:43 pm
They’ll need to run paid ads to do it and have to run them from now until the election.
by bluegreen on May 21, 2012 at 5:43 pm
Gauss
No get yours.
Thomson’s half brother is not Mr Thomson. His name is Struan Robertson.
So I suggest if you want to go off half cocked you get your equipment inspected .:P
by ruawake on May 21, 2012 at 5:43 pm
Leone, re “The Shire”. I have a friend who used to live in the Shire about 30 years ago, I asked him what it was like now and he replied “Bogans and Bluebottles!”.
by Michael Cusack on May 21, 2012 at 5:44 pm
The links to the reports of that research are on the last page of the last thread. They discussed IQ, conservatism and prejudice. The researchers were at pains to point out that this couldn’t be used describe individual people i.e. that because someone had conservative views they would have a low IQ and greater levels of prejudice.
It found the group scores (from what i can make out without seeing the actual results), kids who have low IQ’s grow up with more conservative views and greater racial prejudice than kids with higher IQ scores. This is not to say kids with high IQs don’t do so too, or that kids with low IQ’s don’t grow up with progressive views and less racial prejudice.
Also this is not finding a course, just a correlation. Other factors may be at play other than the IQ scores.
irony alert.
Maybe they are just copying their dumbcluck redneck parents. 
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on May 21, 2012 at 5:44 pm
Between Bolano saying “fings” and Thomson saying “everythink” we have the makings of a future Ch 9 telemovie.
by deflationite on May 21, 2012 at 5:44 pm
Up here on the Central Coast, can someone tell Ms Katharine Murphy, everyone has been solidly on Craig’s side in the media, and on facebook. They normally aren’t on the Gillard government’s side, btw.
by C@tmomma on May 21, 2012 at 5:44 pm
dumb conservatives = ignorance
smart conservatives = greed
by deflationite on May 21, 2012 at 5:46 pm
C@tmomma
OH – head up from newspaper while bolano on – “he looks like a crook”…
by Lyne Lady on May 21, 2012 at 5:46 pm
The takedown of Jackson is a task waiting to be done.
Uhlman will have been provided with ample info regarding Jackson’s inconsistencies in this HSU matter.
It will be worth watching whether he has the skills necessary to actually counteract her “up until now” unchallenged assertions about her role in the whole scheming cesspit.
If it was Kerry O’Brien it would not have been pretty. With Uhlmann it will likely be prettty pathetic.
by Greensborough Growler on May 21, 2012 at 5:47 pm
deflationite
hit the nail on the head – abbott is the best at
everythink
and
nothink
and he’s supposed to be a rhodes scholar! Jesuits FAIL!!
by Lyne Lady on May 21, 2012 at 5:48 pm
Another failed Murdoch decision
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/themediamachine/index.php/theaustralian/comments/tens_breakfast_shifts_the_deckchairs/
by bluegreen on May 21, 2012 at 5:48 pm
i call him a member of the “nothink” brigade…. heaven help us!
by Lyne Lady on May 21, 2012 at 5:48 pm
“Jackson’s accent has a touch of it as well.”
She is a Mandeville Hall, Toorak, girl. The most exclusive Catholic girls school in Australia.
by joe2 on May 21, 2012 at 5:48 pm
Puffy thanks for that and I understand the findings and have seen evidence to support it.
The only thing I find interesting is that many seats that clearly have a high number of voters with uni degrees and good jobs yet vote strongly for the Liberals.
I understand that much of it is cultural but how can these people so be in support of someone like Tone
by mexicanbeemer on May 21, 2012 at 5:48 pm
Gorilla
by lizzie on May 21, 2012 at 5:48 pm
G.G. he will fail.
by joe2 on May 21, 2012 at 5:49 pm
guytaur @ 386
Try the simpler (but true) explanation. I was out for a while and way behind catching up.
by bemused on May 21, 2012 at 5:50 pm
The hung Parliament has done Australia a favour. Now all know what type of man Mr Abbott is as he goes after his precious.
by guytaur on May 21, 2012 at 5:51 pm
by lizzie on May 21, 2012 at 5:52 pm
Jacqueline Maley says
Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/politics/believe-him-or-not-thomson-rises-to-occasion-20120521-1z0jw.html#ixzz1vULYY6yb
Clearly Jacqueline Maley doesn’t use SMSpup to compose detailed SMS and send to people as though its coming from your phone
However Thomson laid out all of the information at one time. Maley avoids reminding the reader that the FWA report was investigated by 1 person, that Kathy Jackson’s partner, Lawler was appointed by Abbott and subject to claims of interference. Both investigator and Lawler are on long leave and not available for questioning by Parliament.
Also Thomson hasn’t been charged and Jackson, Jackson, Williamson and Lawler are subject of charges
by billie on May 21, 2012 at 5:52 pm
bemused.
As I am not a member of the Coalition Parliamentary team I will take you at your word
by guytaur on May 21, 2012 at 5:53 pm
IF GILLARD’S STRATEGY IS WORKING, WHY IS SHE GOING TO LOSE THE NEXT ELECTION IN A LANDSLIDE? (EVIDENCE: LOOK AT THE _TREND_).
by ShowsOn on May 21, 2012 at 5:53 pm
by lizzie on May 21, 2012 at 5:54 pm
billie
Is Jackson, Jackson, Williamson and Lawler a legal firm?
by guytaur on May 21, 2012 at 5:55 pm
“The NSW government will ask randomly selected groups of voters known as citizens{‘?} juries to advise on its energy policy, as part of a trial backed by former premier Nick Greiner…”
I would point out that use of the term “citizens’ juries” would be a serious infringement of my Trade Mark rights to the “citizen” brand.
Would Finns Boerwar Fukushima Inc be interested in slapping them with a lawsuit on my behalf?
by citizen on May 21, 2012 at 5:55 pm
billie
I am not impressed if that’s Maley’s attitude.
by lizzie on May 21, 2012 at 5:55 pm
YOU MEAN THE TREND OF TURNING A 52:48 POSITION INTO A 44:56 POSITION?
by bluegreen on May 21, 2012 at 5:56 pm
With this “class warfare” shite….isn’t that another creation of Newscorpse? How is it being attributed to Labor, when likely Chris Mitchell just dreamt it up?
by joe2 on May 21, 2012 at 5:56 pm
joe2 517
aha… so that’s the opus dei connection……
by Lyne Lady on May 21, 2012 at 5:57 pm
bluegreen, kill the cap button, please.
by joe2 on May 21, 2012 at 5:57 pm
Joe2
“She is a Mandeville Hall, Toorak, girl. The most exclusive Catholic girls school in Australia.”
Obviously it is not a finishing school.
by dany le roux on May 21, 2012 at 5:58 pm
Is BoF using Jules pre-election policy of a citizen assembly for energy policy
by mexicanbeemer on May 21, 2012 at 5:58 pm
by lizzie on May 21, 2012 at 5:59 pm
Apparently he will do anything to put off making a decision on the electricity sell off. Not like he has to build any infrastructure or anything.
by bluegreen on May 21, 2012 at 5:59 pm
Pauline Hanson on ID fraud, only on Barcelona Tonight.
He he he. Special investigation to show how to use fake stuff to get free tarts.
by ruawake on May 21, 2012 at 5:59 pm
dany, if you listen, she does do a bit of the posh.
by joe2 on May 21, 2012 at 6:00 pm
bg,
Context comrade.
I thought you might have actually considered we are talking about your issue raised in your chart you posted from Possum which clearly shows the strategy of focus on the means testing of welfare is actually working.
Of course, I presumed you’d have some integrity.
Won’t make that mistake again.
Cheers.
by Greensborough Growler on May 21, 2012 at 6:00 pm
But Bluegreen didn’t the Liberals dismiss the idea of a citizen assembly as a waste of time.
by mexicanbeemer on May 21, 2012 at 6:01 pm
ruawake
I don’t eat pastry much
by lizzie on May 21, 2012 at 6:01 pm
by guytaur on May 21, 2012 at 6:01 pm
Dany le roux
Tonight when you watch the 7:30 Report, look at the size of the pearl stud earings and the glossy well cut head of hair. Her grooming is not obvious and its not cheap!
by billie on May 21, 2012 at 6:01 pm
ru
Maybe Pauline Hanson is going to prove how easy it is to get a drivers licence and credit card faked.
by guytaur on May 21, 2012 at 6:03 pm
I think everyone dissed the Citizens Assembly as a waste of time.
by bluegreen on May 21, 2012 at 6:03 pm
They did indeed (me included)
by mexicanbeemer on May 21, 2012 at 6:03 pm
billie
And it puts a charge on your phone bill does it?
Neither have Jackson, Jackson, Williamson & Lawler? Why the hell would you say Lawlor is the subject of charges.
by Gauss on May 21, 2012 at 6:04 pm