Essential Research: 56-44 to Coalition
The latest Essential Research result has Labor gaining a point on two-party preferred for the second week in a row, with the Coalition now leading 56-44, and has Labor gaining three points on the primary vote – a very unusual occurrence in this series, which publishes weekly results derived from a two-week rolling average. Labor’s primary vote is at 33%, with the Coalition and the Greens each down a point to 49% and 10% respectively.
The first of the supplementary questions measures respondents’ knowledge rather than opinions: namely, the question of whether interest rates are higher or lower now than they were when Labor came to power, the purpose presumably being to determine whether misapprehensions are behind Labor’s diabolical polling. A majority (35% to 20%) were in fact aware that they were now lower, but only 10% thought they were a little lower against 25% for a lot, when the official interest rate has in fact gone from 6.75% to 3.75%. Respondents were then asked how much credit they gave Labor for the drop: 7% said a lot, 19% a fair amount, 27% a little and 35% none. Further questions cover the casualisation of the workforce, the mining boom, the value of various industries to average Australians, and the notion that the government is engaged in “class warfare” (28% agree, 46% disagree).
Further polling snippets:
• Yesterday’s Sunday Mail reported that the Galaxy poll of Queensland respondents covered in the previous post also found that Kevin Rudd’s lead over Julia Gillard in the state at 67-21, and at 62-37 among Labor voters.
• News Limited tabloids carried another Galaxy poll yesterday, this one conducted online from a national sample of 606, which showed support for gay marriage at 50% against 33% opposed. However, 26% of respondents said legislation to allow gay marriage would make them less likely to vote Labor, against only 22% who said more likely.
• Labor has gone public with polling conducted for it by UMR Research, which apparently found that 25% of respondents “would vote for” Julian Assange if he ran for a Senate seat. This tendency was fairly evenly spread among supporters of different parties: 39% for Greens, 26% for Labor and 23% for Coalition. The combined figure is similar to the 23% of respondents to a Galaxy poll in September last year who rated themselves “likely” to vote for Katter’s Australian Party at the Queensland state election: 11.5% would actually do so. It is not clear if the poll was entirely national, as the report from Phillip Coorey in the Sydney Morning Herald only spoke of results from New South Wales and Victoria, which perhaps surprisingly showed slightly stronger support for Assange in the former.
Preselection:
• Tasmanian Labor Senator Nick Sherry, who had already announced he would not contest the next election, has brought forward his retirement. David Killick of The Mercury reports the vacancy looks set to be filled by Lin Thorp, member for the state upper house seat of Rumney from 1999 until her defeat in 2011. Thorp has the backing of Sherry’s Left faction, including from Premier Lara Giddings. However, earlier reports suggested others in the Left wanted a younger candidate, and that a move was on to have the party’s administrative committee reserve the position for a candidate from northern Tasmanian – with Launceston commercial lawyer Ross Hart fitting the bill on both counts. Notably, Unions Tasmania secretary Kevin Harkins, who was said to have been locked out preselection in 2007 because Kevin Rudd had him confused with Kevin Reynolds, and again in 2010 because Rudd did not want to admit to his mistake, had ruled himself out because “we’re likely to have a very conservative government in just a tad over 12 months’ time, (and) the best place for me is with the union movement”.
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
by guytaur on May 21, 2012 at 6:04 pm
Easy peasy. The one showing Thommo’s D/L with a “p” in the surname and a dud valid expiry date was in all probability used with a fake credit card.
by Gorgeous Dunny on May 21, 2012 at 6:05 pm
Joe2 @ 517:
And Peta Credlin is a Sacred Heart College, Geelong, girl, which is well up the list.
by fiona on May 21, 2012 at 6:06 pm
MSPup sends birthday greetings to my siblings and in-laws pre-ordered to continue for a a couple of decades, as long as i keep earning the points for it, and they do not change their mobile numbers. It looks like I send the messages from my phone. No-one can say I forgot their birthday!
There, I have outed myself.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on May 21, 2012 at 6:06 pm
Our Lib Government in action in Victoria. They declare a new ambulance station completed that t still a block of mud. Something for Queensland and NSW PBers to look forward to in the future, no doubt.
http://www.weeklytimesnow.com.au/article/2012/05/21/484595_national-news.html
by Greensborough Growler on May 21, 2012 at 6:07 pm
From 2005: “SIM card cloning is easy”
http://www.brookson.com/gsm/cardclone.pdf
Plenty of forum posts from 2004-5 on cloning sims can be found with google. The technology/software was available so it is possible that Thomson’s sim card was cloned. A cloned SIM card would allow a person using it to make calls which would appear to be made using Thomson’s phone.
by bakunin on May 21, 2012 at 6:07 pm
Thomson stated in Parliament today evidence from the AFP that they had been tapping mobile phones and that the billing was different to the calls made. So it is possible, and proven to be possible, to get calls registered to a phone bill of a phone that never made the call.
Gauss you are running out of stuff mate.
by ruawake on May 21, 2012 at 6:08 pm
Curtis making clear cross benches walking away from any more Parliamentary action over the Thomson affair.
by guytaur on May 21, 2012 at 6:09 pm
So there you have it. Their ABC reckons the numbers are not going to change. No Abbott PM next week.
by guytaur on May 21, 2012 at 6:10 pm
I love Melbourne, but the very worst thing about Melbourne is that the first question you get asked when you meet someone is “which school did you go to?”
Cringeworthy culture.
by deflationite on May 21, 2012 at 6:10 pm
Daily Telegraph reporter opens himself and ABC up to lawsuit by saying I think Thomson is guilty.
by guytaur on May 21, 2012 at 6:11 pm
Never heard it asked in the 5 decades I’ve lived here. Must have been the circles in which you mixed.
by Tom Hawkins on May 21, 2012 at 6:13 pm
When I lived in Melbourne it was “who do you barrack for”. The religion of the boot was all important.
by ruawake on May 21, 2012 at 6:14 pm
Patience Grasshopper.
by ruawake on May 21, 2012 at 6:16 pm
ru,
If you’re a new arrival people will ask you who you barrack for. If you say no one. They will dutifully assign you a team.
It’s a bit like an arranged marriage, I know.
A friend of mine became a life time Saints supporter because someone tole him he looked very St.Kilda.
by Greensborough Growler on May 21, 2012 at 6:17 pm
I wouldn’t think FWA have the power to conduct such an investigation. If Thomson believed his phone had been hacked in this way, surely it would be a crime for suck hacking to the police, and he should’ve gone to the police. Has he, in the how many years this investigation has been going on for?
by ltep on May 21, 2012 at 6:18 pm
Andrew Klennell still using newsltd propaganda
he is wrong about hotels, of course they have security video footage
by Meguire Bob on May 21, 2012 at 6:19 pm
ruawake
Possibly, maybe but the HSU is not the AFP. Why would they go to such an elaborate setup, over 5 years, with resolution 5 years later, when a simple sting/ gotcha would be the most obvious way they would go about it?
by Gauss on May 21, 2012 at 6:21 pm
ABC must be pleased that a Drum piece got read into Hansard.
by guytaur on May 21, 2012 at 6:21 pm
Got bombarded with it as a country kid coming to the city for Uni.
When the answer was “Bairnsdale High School” I got lots of blank looks.
by deflationite on May 21, 2012 at 6:21 pm
ru,
Once the Harrassment claims are dealt with and should Slipper be exhonerated, I’m sure Slipper will be looking for compensation from Ashby. I’m sure there would also be a AFP investigation in to the circumstances surrounding this very disturbing case.
Christopher Pyne may not be as chirpy and defiant at that stage.
by Greensborough Growler on May 21, 2012 at 6:22 pm
What’s the betting Lawler is a Riverview boy?
The B. A. Santamaria breeding program seems to have been timed to perfection.
by joe2 on May 21, 2012 at 6:23 pm
by guytaur on May 21, 2012 at 6:24 pm
Who is asserting it is elaborate, I reckon it is dead easy.
by ruawake on May 21, 2012 at 6:26 pm
Gawd the body language “experts” have been wheeled out for Thomson.
[Federal MP Craig Thomson was nervous and appeared uncomfortable during his parliamentary address - but he believed what he was saying, body language experts say.
..................She said Mr Thomson used "pacifying gestures, such as lip licking, tongue movements and hand [holding] with one thumb soothing the other, freezing gestures with his both hands locked into position and propping himself up, an averted gaze, rapid eye blinking and tucked chin]
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/thomson-believed-what-he-was-saying-body-language-expert-20120521-1z0pj.html#ixzz1vUUP4vgR
by poroti on May 21, 2012 at 6:26 pm
Heresy!
by joe2 on May 21, 2012 at 6:26 pm
I think I’ll shift to the North Shore.
by Boerwar on May 21, 2012 at 6:27 pm
Jackson did make a weird reference to a Jesuit education.
by ruawake on May 21, 2012 at 6:27 pm
“Santa’s little helpers” seem to be everywhere.
by poroti on May 21, 2012 at 6:32 pm
Meguire Bob 566
the Drum is nothing more than an LNP propaganda machine
by Lyne Lady on May 21, 2012 at 6:32 pm
O.K, ruawake, do you remember the quote? Riverview …Abbott, Hockey, Joyce,…..
by joe2 on May 21, 2012 at 6:32 pm
rua
jackson is weird (full stop!)
LNP loaded with jesuits, happy clappers – god help us!!!
by Lyne Lady on May 21, 2012 at 6:33 pm
Lynne Lady 579
After tonight’s show I totally agree.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on May 21, 2012 at 6:34 pm
B.A. Santamaria was not Jesuit educated – he went to St Kevins – a Christian Brothers school.
by blackburnpseph on May 21, 2012 at 6:34 pm
Been busy all day….did anything interesting happen?
by Mod Lib on May 21, 2012 at 6:35 pm
No Lyne Lady they are not “happy clappers”. It’s different to that.
by joe2 on May 21, 2012 at 6:35 pm
Joe 2 @ 580
Joe Hockey went to St Aloysius not Riverview.
by blackburnpseph on May 21, 2012 at 6:35 pm
Mod Lib
No.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on May 21, 2012 at 6:36 pm
Lyne Lady
Catholics don’t do happy clapping – thats a Baptist, Hillsong type of thing.
by blackburnpseph on May 21, 2012 at 6:36 pm
(My only criticism is how the speech started, I feel he should have started off talking about his background and the history of his time at the HS)
But he did
by my say on May 21, 2012 at 6:36 pm
I think he sent all his kids to Xavier, though. Home base for IPA warriors…
by joe2 on May 21, 2012 at 6:37 pm
If jackson talks in parliament,what would she say that is not in the FWA report.
Think it would open the media to ask questions about abbott and lawler if she does.
http://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/1652161/Kathy-Jackson-wants-her-day-in-parliament
by Schnappi on May 21, 2012 at 6:37 pm
Chris Uhlmann @CUhlmann
On 730. What’s the intriguing link between HSU boss Kathy Jackson and James Ashby, the man who has accused the Speaker of sexual harassment?
by Greensborough Growler on May 21, 2012 at 6:38 pm
Just a normal day, i.e. the Liberals demonstrated they don’t know anything about economics and are only supported by abject morons.
by ShowsOn on May 21, 2012 at 6:38 pm
Puff
Is there a MSPup type service for phone calls, similar to the SMS service?
by psyclaw on May 21, 2012 at 6:38 pm
So where did Bill Shorten and Rob Hulls go wrong?
by blackburnpseph on May 21, 2012 at 6:39 pm
very interesting
by The Finnigans on May 21, 2012 at 6:40 pm
If just one use of phone or credit card is proven to be false, the whole case against Thomson should collapse in my opinion.
Still, the parliament, as we all know including Abbott , is not a court of law and everybody in the Coalition and especially their cheer sqad in the media should MOVE ON!
Not only is Abbott most definitely not fit to be PM and just as definitely is not fit to be an MP, Abbott is NOT fit to be a human being.
(Abbott) an absolute disgrace, an absolute disgrace to any teachings of Jesus. The catholic church should pursuade, publicly even, the little bastard to mend his evil ways for the good of the church.
by Centre on May 21, 2012 at 6:40 pm
Xenophon now on 2GB saying:
(a) Carbon Tax is a disaster that will ruin Australian economy.
(b) He has a better scheme.
(c) He will repeal it if given the chance.
So now we know.
by Bushfire Bill on May 21, 2012 at 6:41 pm
Absolutely.
It would have required a trip to Jaycar to pick a USB GSM sim card reader for $50.00 (this was available in 2003), a download of sim cloning software from the net, plus a couple of hours with Thomson’s phone.
by bakunin on May 21, 2012 at 6:41 pm