Essential Research: 56-44 to Coalition
The latest Essential Research result has Labor gaining a point on two-party preferred for the second week in a row, with the Coalition now leading 56-44, and has Labor gaining three points on the primary vote – a very unusual occurrence in this series, which publishes weekly results derived from a two-week rolling average. Labor’s primary vote is at 33%, with the Coalition and the Greens each down a point to 49% and 10% respectively.
The first of the supplementary questions measures respondents’ knowledge rather than opinions: namely, the question of whether interest rates are higher or lower now than they were when Labor came to power, the purpose presumably being to determine whether misapprehensions are behind Labor’s diabolical polling. A majority (35% to 20%) were in fact aware that they were now lower, but only 10% thought they were a little lower against 25% for a lot, when the official interest rate has in fact gone from 6.75% to 3.75%. Respondents were then asked how much credit they gave Labor for the drop: 7% said a lot, 19% a fair amount, 27% a little and 35% none. Further questions cover the casualisation of the workforce, the mining boom, the value of various industries to average Australians, and the notion that the government is engaged in “class warfare” (28% agree, 46% disagree).
Further polling snippets:
• Yesterday’s Sunday Mail reported that the Galaxy poll of Queensland respondents covered in the previous post also found that Kevin Rudd’s lead over Julia Gillard in the state at 67-21, and at 62-37 among Labor voters.
• News Limited tabloids carried another Galaxy poll yesterday, this one conducted online from a national sample of 606, which showed support for gay marriage at 50% against 33% opposed. However, 26% of respondents said legislation to allow gay marriage would make them less likely to vote Labor, against only 22% who said more likely.
• Labor has gone public with polling conducted for it by UMR Research, which apparently found that 25% of respondents “would vote for” Julian Assange if he ran for a Senate seat. This tendency was fairly evenly spread among supporters of different parties: 39% for Greens, 26% for Labor and 23% for Coalition. The combined figure is similar to the 23% of respondents to a Galaxy poll in September last year who rated themselves “likely” to vote for Katter’s Australian Party at the Queensland state election: 11.5% would actually do so. It is not clear if the poll was entirely national, as the report from Phillip Coorey in the Sydney Morning Herald only spoke of results from New South Wales and Victoria, which perhaps surprisingly showed slightly stronger support for Assange in the former.
Preselection:
• Tasmanian Labor Senator Nick Sherry, who had already announced he would not contest the next election, has brought forward his retirement. David Killick of The Mercury reports the vacancy looks set to be filled by Lin Thorp, member for the state upper house seat of Rumney from 1999 until her defeat in 2011. Thorp has the backing of Sherry’s Left faction, including from Premier Lara Giddings. However, earlier reports suggested others in the Left wanted a younger candidate, and that a move was on to have the party’s administrative committee reserve the position for a candidate from northern Tasmanian – with Launceston commercial lawyer Ross Hart fitting the bill on both counts. Notably, Unions Tasmania secretary Kevin Harkins, who was said to have been locked out preselection in 2007 because Kevin Rudd had him confused with Kevin Reynolds, and again in 2010 because Rudd did not want to admit to his mistake, had ruled himself out because “we’re likely to have a very conservative government in just a tad over 12 months’ time, (and) the best place for me is with the union movement”.
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Joe, I was referring to Abbott, sorry. Not Lawler. Apologies for any confusion
by Burgey on May 21, 2012 at 7:20 pm
Did anyone see the old fart on ABC TV News asked his opinion about Thomson?
“I think he’s just SCUM.”
What place does this kind of disgusting speech have on ABC News?
by Bushfire Bill on May 21, 2012 at 7:20 pm
While the head of BHP-Billiton was proclaiming that Australia was becoming unfriendly towards the mining industry, his company has contradicted this by its actions.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-05-20/vale-loses-to-australia-as-mine-laws-curb-market-share.html
Relevant quotes from a long article:
Vale SA (VALE5), the world’s largest iron-ore producer, is poised to lose market share to Australian rivals Rio Tinto Group (RIO) and BHP Billiton Ltd (BHP) as Brazil imposes stricter environmental rules on new mining projects and labor costs soar.
Brazil’s share of the seaborne iron-ore market may sink to 27 percent by 2016, down from 31 percent now, as the country boosts capacity by 188 million tons, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Australia will probably add about 502 million tons, taking its market share to 50 percent from 41 percent.
China’s steel demand will remain positive until at least 2025 and production will rise to about 1.1 billion tons by 2025 from about 700 million tons currently, BHP said in March. The company is more than doubling its iron ore capacity by 2020 and this year got initial approval to expand its export harbor in Western Australia, where most of the country’s ore is mined.
“The investing environment in Australia is a little bit friendlier than in Brazil from a political, environmental and permitting standpoint,” said Andrew Cosgrove, a Bloomberg Industries analyst in Princeton, New Jersey. “Brazil may not be seen as the source of new supply in the future that a lot of people are expecting.”
by citizen on May 21, 2012 at 7:22 pm
Methinks he was talking about Hockey, fiona.
by joe2 on May 21, 2012 at 7:23 pm
GG
That would constitute research. I don’t think many of our political journalists are prepared to soil their hands in that way. It’s way easier to listen to Kathy Jackson and draw conclusions from her.
by Aguirre on May 21, 2012 at 7:24 pm
I’ve just got through watching QT and its aftermath and my revulsion at Pyne has reached new heights. Just how unlike-able can a man be?
by BK on May 21, 2012 at 7:25 pm
Joe2
Nah, we all know those sort of payments show up on bank statements in bold red as “‘You randy goat you have been playing Hide the Salami at The House Of The Rising Plum for the FOURTH time this month. Do you think you can hide it from the Missus forever?”
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on May 21, 2012 at 7:26 pm
ha, ha, @ Burgey 650 ‘mass’ confusion, pun intended.
by joe2 on May 21, 2012 at 7:27 pm
Was the ABC’s montage of cuts where Thomson is drinking water, necessary? Shock-horror that during an hour long speech you would need a sip of water now and then.
He must be guilty.
by TAHGTH on May 21, 2012 at 7:27 pm
Thomson said that NSW brothels were required by law to keep videos for 5 years. He asked that FWA investigator check the videos when the allegations were first raised, I doubt the videos are still available after 7 years
by billie on May 21, 2012 at 7:29 pm
OK, lets just for one minute, nay 15 seconds, contemplate that Thomson has done nothing wrong and has been set up. What sort of hell has been made for hm and his family?
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on May 21, 2012 at 7:30 pm
TAHGTH
The “body language experts” dredged up by Fairfax gave the water drinking a positive spin.
by poroti on May 21, 2012 at 7:31 pm
Well we know Uhlman not doing anything to note. Intro to 7:30 was about defence not Thomson.
by guytaur on May 21, 2012 at 7:31 pm
Did anyone notice the woman who irately said “I didn’t say that, I thought Craig Thomson was believable” later in the same ABC snip. All of the people interviewed were well dressed mature self funded retiree types
I don’t think Bushfire will be happy with Toolman tonight
by billie on May 21, 2012 at 7:32 pm
Perfect Puff.
‘root, unfathful dick, inc, payment $570 services provided’…not!
by joe2 on May 21, 2012 at 7:33 pm
Pray tell, where can I do a course to be a ‘body language expert’?
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on May 21, 2012 at 7:33 pm
Yes, I thought that for a moment as well while listening to the news reports (not having seen the speech in its entirety).
I am surprised that he has not been beating down the door to the cops trying to get this cleared up. Its been going for many years and he just recently refused to speak to the cops.
At the very least he has made several bad decisions.
by Mod Lib on May 21, 2012 at 7:33 pm
You want to be an expert in burps and farts?
by Mod Lib on May 21, 2012 at 7:35 pm
ML
The man has not been charged. Why try and smear him by talking about him following well paid legal advice?
by guytaur on May 21, 2012 at 7:35 pm
Joe
How about, “Satisfaction for the Discerning Gent, Appointment Fee $750, Condom Fee $10.00.”
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on May 21, 2012 at 7:36 pm
guytaur: not sure what you mean by ‘smear’?
Is there anything in my post that you disagree with?
by Mod Lib on May 21, 2012 at 7:37 pm
Puff, the Magic Dragon.
Just down the corridor between the Feng Shui lecture theatre and the “Hand writing expert” training room.
by poroti on May 21, 2012 at 7:38 pm
And what where the cops supposed to do, exactly?
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on May 21, 2012 at 7:38 pm
I detect a shift in the intro this time. Ewart not so anti labor.
by guytaur on May 21, 2012 at 7:38 pm
So the loon is being interviewed
by Last name red wombat on May 21, 2012 at 7:38 pm
ML
This is the presumption of innoncence turned on its head. Why would an innocent person need to go to the police?
He claimed today to have asked FWA to go to the police in order to get them to investigate brothel records.
by Boerwar on May 21, 2012 at 7:39 pm
ML
You said he has refused to talk to cops. As if there is something wrong with that.
That is smear.
by guytaur on May 21, 2012 at 7:39 pm
Surely, by now, all these years later, people must have worked out that there is no “h” when pronouncing “HSU”…
by Mod Lib on May 21, 2012 at 7:40 pm
$270k…………..FFS
by Last name red wombat on May 21, 2012 at 7:40 pm
Ms Jackson on 7.30. Mr Thomson is ‘delusional’.
by Boerwar on May 21, 2012 at 7:40 pm
Pyne being very cautious – I’d imagine he was relieved after ‘Meet the Press’ yesterday didn’t turn up anything new.
by CTar1 on May 21, 2012 at 7:40 pm
Poroti,
Maybe this all happened because CT didn’t reposition the fish-tank?
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on May 21, 2012 at 7:41 pm
$270k………..and she agrres it is large…….she didn’t want it…PLZZZZZZZZZZZZ
by Last name red wombat on May 21, 2012 at 7:41 pm
Mod Lib
I believe it started in Catholic schools – from the Irish. Seems to have spread.
by lizzie on May 21, 2012 at 7:43 pm
Mod Lib
Indeed, pronouncing it as the ” Haitch S U” is very revealing as to ones background.
by poroti on May 21, 2012 at 7:43 pm
$5,192 per week…………..how many unionists subs per week cover this?
by Last name red wombat on May 21, 2012 at 7:43 pm
Not so friendly for Jackson this time.
by guytaur on May 21, 2012 at 7:43 pm
Rubbish.
I have made no accusation against him of guilt. I have just said that I am surprised that he has not been camping out at the police station to grab them first thing in the morning when they come to work.
When this was first discussed I said I would prefer to never hear the name Thomson again, and that sentiment hasn’t changed.
by Mod Lib on May 21, 2012 at 7:43 pm
Ms Jackson admits that she does pillow talk with Mr Lawler.
by Boerwar on May 21, 2012 at 7:43 pm
If the best they can come up with is that CT is delusional, I smell a rat.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on May 21, 2012 at 7:44 pm
ML
Why would he go to the police when FWA are already investigating the allegations, as they have been for the last three something years?
by Boerwar on May 21, 2012 at 7:45 pm
$5192 buckaroonies per week!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
by Last name red wombat on May 21, 2012 at 7:45 pm
Well, well, interrupt the Prime Minister 26 times, but NEVER interrupt Kathy Jackson.
by Bushfire Bill on May 21, 2012 at 7:46 pm
heh I go away from blog and I now see ABC picking up on FWA and Kathy Jackson…
by zoidlord on May 21, 2012 at 7:46 pm
Have to say I just loved the sense of chagrin Kathy demonstrated when talking about how she fought against her salary, but it was pushed through by others and she had no choice!
I wish someone would do that for me so I could protest!!!!
by Mod Lib on May 21, 2012 at 7:46 pm
And they pay her f#@king childcare.
by Last name red wombat on May 21, 2012 at 7:46 pm
fredn @ 649
Well, I did Engineering at RMIT and the Deputy Head of the Electrical Engineering Department used to regale us with anecdotes about “those boys up the road at Carlton Tech” and how hopeless they were.
Thank you for the confirmation
by bemused on May 21, 2012 at 7:47 pm
three something years? So they have worked out how to spell his name. In 2015 they might have tracked down his address…
by Mod Lib on May 21, 2012 at 7:47 pm
I suppose that Ms Jackson publicly calling Mr Jackson ‘delusional’ is defamation. She is not the only one.
If there are no convictions, and assuming that his political career has been destroyed, it would be safe to assume that Mr Thomson has a lucrative career in defamation proceedings to look forward to.
by Boerwar on May 21, 2012 at 7:48 pm
Did you notice.
Not one interruption in the Kathy Jackson interview.
When she became most unhinged the camera cut away to a wide shot of both of them so here face could not clearly be seen.
by deflationite on May 21, 2012 at 7:48 pm