Essential Research: 56-44 to Coalition
The latest Essential Research result has Labor gaining a point on two-party preferred for the second week in a row, with the Coalition now leading 56-44, and has Labor gaining three points on the primary vote – a very unusual occurrence in this series, which publishes weekly results derived from a two-week rolling average. Labor’s primary vote is at 33%, with the Coalition and the Greens each down a point to 49% and 10% respectively.
The first of the supplementary questions measures respondents’ knowledge rather than opinions: namely, the question of whether interest rates are higher or lower now than they were when Labor came to power, the purpose presumably being to determine whether misapprehensions are behind Labor’s diabolical polling. A majority (35% to 20%) were in fact aware that they were now lower, but only 10% thought they were a little lower against 25% for a lot, when the official interest rate has in fact gone from 6.75% to 3.75%. Respondents were then asked how much credit they gave Labor for the drop: 7% said a lot, 19% a fair amount, 27% a little and 35% none. Further questions cover the casualisation of the workforce, the mining boom, the value of various industries to average Australians, and the notion that the government is engaged in “class warfare” (28% agree, 46% disagree).
Further polling snippets:
• Yesterday’s Sunday Mail reported that the Galaxy poll of Queensland respondents covered in the previous post also found that Kevin Rudd’s lead over Julia Gillard in the state at 67-21, and at 62-37 among Labor voters.
• News Limited tabloids carried another Galaxy poll yesterday, this one conducted online from a national sample of 606, which showed support for gay marriage at 50% against 33% opposed. However, 26% of respondents said legislation to allow gay marriage would make them less likely to vote Labor, against only 22% who said more likely.
• Labor has gone public with polling conducted for it by UMR Research, which apparently found that 25% of respondents “would vote for” Julian Assange if he ran for a Senate seat. This tendency was fairly evenly spread among supporters of different parties: 39% for Greens, 26% for Labor and 23% for Coalition. The combined figure is similar to the 23% of respondents to a Galaxy poll in September last year who rated themselves “likely” to vote for Katter’s Australian Party at the Queensland state election: 11.5% would actually do so. It is not clear if the poll was entirely national, as the report from Phillip Coorey in the Sydney Morning Herald only spoke of results from New South Wales and Victoria, which perhaps surprisingly showed slightly stronger support for Assange in the former.
Preselection:
• Tasmanian Labor Senator Nick Sherry, who had already announced he would not contest the next election, has brought forward his retirement. David Killick of The Mercury reports the vacancy looks set to be filled by Lin Thorp, member for the state upper house seat of Rumney from 1999 until her defeat in 2011. Thorp has the backing of Sherry’s Left faction, including from Premier Lara Giddings. However, earlier reports suggested others in the Left wanted a younger candidate, and that a move was on to have the party’s administrative committee reserve the position for a candidate from northern Tasmanian – with Launceston commercial lawyer Ross Hart fitting the bill on both counts. Notably, Unions Tasmania secretary Kevin Harkins, who was said to have been locked out preselection in 2007 because Kevin Rudd had him confused with Kevin Reynolds, and again in 2010 because Rudd did not want to admit to his mistake, had ruled himself out because “we’re likely to have a very conservative government in just a tad over 12 months’ time, (and) the best place for me is with the union movement”.
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Good evening all.
Have just seen news footage of Thomson addressing the House. He said that Ch7 were underneath his bathroom window filming his then pregnant wife in the shower! Something really needs to be done about the media. They are out of control.
by confessions on May 21, 2012 at 8:10 pm
The state of the nation tonight is that millions believe Thomson would get up in front of parliament, with all the sanctions available for misleading the house and abuse of privilege, and lie about everything he mentioned. Not exaggerate, not stretch the truth, but lie about everything.
This is all based on the poisonous atmosphere that has been generated about him in the past.
One vox pop participant today said he was “just SCUM”, so viciously you’d think Thomson had done him a personal disfavour.
This is what Abbott has brought to our national discourse: hatred, the lynch mob, assumed guilt, and a malignant approach to just about everything he claims, as a conservative, to treasure.
God help us… what would an Abbott Prime Ministership be like?
by Bushfire Bill on May 21, 2012 at 8:10 pm
guytaur
In that case, I’ll make sure I do. (You remembered what I said!!)
by lizzie on May 21, 2012 at 8:11 pm
deflationite – okay if you are comfortable in doing so, would you share some examples for I have never been asked.
Apart from which footy team question the other common one is what suburb do I live in
by mexicanbeemer on May 21, 2012 at 8:12 pm
Just ONE use of Thomson’s phone or credit card needs to be proven that it is false and the whole case against him breaks down.
What should the penalty to Abbott be if Thomson is not proven guilty?
What should the penalty to Abbott be for trashing the presumption of innocence and separation of powers?
What should the punishment to Abbott be for bringing the whole parliament into disrepute?
by Centre on May 21, 2012 at 8:12 pm
Boerwar
Might not last a term
by Schnappi on May 21, 2012 at 8:12 pm
Kathy Jackson has the second highest wage of any unionist, with car etc she is the highest paid. No ballpark.
by ruawake on May 21, 2012 at 8:12 pm
ML
What do you know about the member for Hughes. One tainted vote.
Herrernan is subject to allegations of a gay hate attack. Two tainted votes.
How about sticking with tradition ethics and history and go with courts deciding who is guilty. Hat means no such thing as a tainted vote.
by guytaur on May 21, 2012 at 8:13 pm
Thomson vote is not tainted for the simple fact that he has not been found guilty in any court of law
by mexicanbeemer on May 21, 2012 at 8:14 pm
confessions
I recall gus mentioning it on PB when it actually occurred. Gus was so angry about it too.
Gus resides in Thomson’s electorate
by victoria on May 21, 2012 at 8:15 pm
I’m not disagreeing! I’m calling on squiggle to put up evidence that Jackson’s pay cheque is ball park for a union official. I know it’s not; you know it’s not yet squiggle tries to pass that bull shit off as fact.
by Tom Hawkins on May 21, 2012 at 8:15 pm
Harmers team
http://www.harmers.com.au/templates/tp_AccountSearch.asp
by Schnappi on May 21, 2012 at 8:15 pm
ML
I am sure that not even the ABC would would deign to consider your approach to be a reasonable defence of Mr Uhlman’s outrageous behaviour to the Prime Minister.
I have a formal complaint in.
(I have another complaint in about a former staff of the Mr Howard urging, on national television, that the Prime Minister be kicked to death.)
Class acts.
by Boerwar on May 21, 2012 at 8:15 pm
Uhlmann did OK. Heather Ewart editorialised in such a very biased manner, again.
They forgot to mention two fair work employees missing in action. Why didn’t Chris ask Kathy where her boyfriend was, right now?
by joe2 on May 21, 2012 at 8:15 pm
Annual pay for Employees in a small business is $232,062,907 (1-4) according to Census stats (2008)
http://www.census.gov/econ/smallbus.html
I have a number of issues when a salary outways the profit.
by zoidlord on May 21, 2012 at 8:15 pm
ModLib
I’ve tried to avoid this whole stink, never paid it much attention, so I’m possibly not up to speed, but this what I think about KJ.
1) She’s Greek.
2) She strikes me as credible, but way out of her depth. It looks like she’s been developed by the union movement and woops, quelle surprise, she’s taken it to heart
3) committed, strong, – a leader.
Nothing wrong with a high salary in those circumstances
by Mr Squiggle on May 21, 2012 at 8:16 pm
Thanks Tom for clarifying your comment
by mexicanbeemer on May 21, 2012 at 8:16 pm
Mr Squiggle
She is Greek?? What the heck is that supposed to mean
by victoria on May 21, 2012 at 8:17 pm
Ms Jackson is on $270,000. He little helper in FWA is on, I heard somewhere or other, on $400,000.
North Shorer material, for sure.
If this keeps up I may have to drop my aspiration to become a North Shorer Class person.
by Boerwar on May 21, 2012 at 8:17 pm
BB
I stated earlier someone I think Abbott is shaping up to be like as PM. Robert Mugabe.
by guytaur on May 21, 2012 at 8:18 pm
Mr Squiggle – Paul Howes AWU put his salary on his twitter feed a week or so ago and said it would be on the website before long. Can’t remember exactly how much but it was about 1/2 that of Kathy Jackson
by BH on May 21, 2012 at 8:18 pm
and Harmers has a pro bono policy
see if you can guess which part fits Jackson, and which part Ashby
http://www.harmers.com.au/ProBonoInitiatives/631/n/3/0/0/
by sprocket_ on May 21, 2012 at 8:19 pm
that’s interesting considering I would have thought that Paul Howes union was larger therefore more able to pay its leadership team.
by mexicanbeemer on May 21, 2012 at 8:20 pm
Combined income of $670k……….and the lawyers are doing it for nix!
by Last name red wombat on May 21, 2012 at 8:20 pm
It’s actually not a smart way to operate. For a start he’s making a rod for his own back in the event the coalition do win the election next year. He’s rolled the ball down the hill, and it’s running away out of control. Plus all these high standards he’s insisting on. Can he be confident that his dud front bench won’t fall foul of them at some point?
Secondly, he’s making the mistake Rudd made by raising expectations. He’s leading everyone to believe that an elected coalition govt will repeal the raft of measures Labor has implemented, which is incredibly risky. And with all his carry on about lies and lying, we wouldn’t want Abbott to not be able to do the things he is promising.
But this is all immaterial, as I am still of the view that Labor will be re-elected for a 3rd term.
by confessions on May 21, 2012 at 8:20 pm
Squiggie
Greek ? So what? This is more of a worry.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/features/union-dues/story-e6frg8h6-1226270776249
by poroti on May 21, 2012 at 8:22 pm
There is a major story about corruption here and the media don’t want to know
by Tom Hawkins on May 21, 2012 at 8:22 pm
The media is feral, they actually seem to believe that this kind of intrusion is warranted, if not acceptable.
Where is ACMA in all of this FFS!
by confessions on May 21, 2012 at 8:22 pm
Jacksons ex has something to answer for
David Donovan@davrosz
Jackson’s statement on #730 she knew nothing of similar allegations against her ex-husband Jeff Jackson are incredible http://www.pitcher.com.au/Uploads/041109%20Cash%20Flows%20Put%20Union%20In%20A%20Jam%20-%20Weekend%20Australian.pdf
by Schnappi on May 21, 2012 at 8:24 pm
So squiggle you admit to knowing fark all about the matter at hand?
You should catch up on a few details before spouting this garbage
by Tom Hawkins on May 21, 2012 at 8:24 pm
SMH journo Kate McClymont, who has done most of the Thomson reporting is on Sky. She looks like a younger version of Niki Savva.
ARe the two women related?
by confessions on May 21, 2012 at 8:24 pm
Kathy Jackson admitted she told her FAW Partner Lawler everything & he just sat there, listened and nodded and offered a cup of cocoa
by The Finnigans on May 21, 2012 at 8:25 pm
Blimey eh! As a Union Official, some weeks I worked 75 to 80 hours in a week and got paid for 35.
Even though I had a related University Degree, I had to bargain like crazy just to get $30K per year working those hours foe a Union when in my previous job I got $36K per year.
I don’t regret one second of it because I was doing a job that really counted. It made a difference to so many people’s lives but was hell for my family’s.
It was not uncommon for them to not see me for anything up to 10 days at a time. One night I finished negotiations with an employer at 3.00am and had to attend a mass meeting at 7.00- am that same morning to report back to members.
Sure was easy money!
by scorpio on May 21, 2012 at 8:25 pm
billie at 545,
you were spot on about the pearl earrings and the coiffure.
What this blog is making clear to me today is that the Groupers of the fifties have made a political return.
I thought Tip was delusional when he was reported by Kroeger as saying Abbott was the new manifestation of the DLP.
Having a PM who is a professed atheist must drive them to hate her with a real
passion.
by dany le roux on May 21, 2012 at 8:26 pm
I found it interesting that Jackson made that pro bono slip on 7:30 in same way she made a slip using the word fake at the presser. B
by guytaur on May 21, 2012 at 8:27 pm
Abbott will be remembered as one of Australia’s longest serving Prime Ministers the way Gillard is going at the moment.
by Mod Lib on May 21, 2012 at 8:27 pm
The Finnigans,
Check your e-mail. If possible, can you link the song I posted to you for the benefit of PBérs.
Probably quite appropriate today!
by scorpio on May 21, 2012 at 8:27 pm
The Finnigans
Pyne is out of control. He put out the challenge today re Ashby allegations.
There has to be moar!!!
by victoria on May 21, 2012 at 8:28 pm
What happened to innocent until proven guilty?
by Mod Lib on May 21, 2012 at 8:28 pm
by victoria on May 21, 2012 at 8:29 pm
Did I miss something here or is being Greek, out of your depth and committed what warrants $270k.
What does Australian, well within your depth and committed get you?
I’ll have some of what she is having!
by Mod Lib on May 21, 2012 at 8:30 pm
victoria:
What has Pyne said/done re Ashby allegations?
by confessions on May 21, 2012 at 8:30 pm
@Scorpio/782
I thought the whole point of Union Movement was to Protect the Workers? Not the Unions themselves?
by zoidlord on May 21, 2012 at 8:30 pm
There is a Fairfax person being interviewed on Sky who has just called Mr Thomson ‘crazy’.
by Boerwar on May 21, 2012 at 8:31 pm
ru
After Williamson who is on $330K.
Why does the HSU pay more than other unions?
by Diogenes on May 21, 2012 at 8:31 pm
ML
Getting ACMA involved is using due process.
by guytaur on May 21, 2012 at 8:32 pm
confessions
by victoria on May 21, 2012 at 8:32 pm
@Mod Lib/788
When someone earning $270k a year for being in a union?
What happened to her actual job?
by zoidlord on May 21, 2012 at 8:32 pm
Greedy #TheirABC. Now in its resident care Peter Reith, Judith Sloan and now joins by Kathy Jackson as a regular
by The Finnigans on May 21, 2012 at 8:32 pm
She says that Fairfax has written to Mr Thomson demanding that he withdraw various ‘fals’ allegations he has made in relation to Fairfax.
by Boerwar on May 21, 2012 at 8:32 pm