Essential Research: 56-44 to Coalition
The latest Essential Research result has Labor gaining a point on two-party preferred for the second week in a row, with the Coalition now leading 56-44, and has Labor gaining three points on the primary vote – a very unusual occurrence in this series, which publishes weekly results derived from a two-week rolling average. Labor’s primary vote is at 33%, with the Coalition and the Greens each down a point to 49% and 10% respectively.
The first of the supplementary questions measures respondents’ knowledge rather than opinions: namely, the question of whether interest rates are higher or lower now than they were when Labor came to power, the purpose presumably being to determine whether misapprehensions are behind Labor’s diabolical polling. A majority (35% to 20%) were in fact aware that they were now lower, but only 10% thought they were a little lower against 25% for a lot, when the official interest rate has in fact gone from 6.75% to 3.75%. Respondents were then asked how much credit they gave Labor for the drop: 7% said a lot, 19% a fair amount, 27% a little and 35% none. Further questions cover the casualisation of the workforce, the mining boom, the value of various industries to average Australians, and the notion that the government is engaged in “class warfare” (28% agree, 46% disagree).
Further polling snippets:
• Yesterday’s Sunday Mail reported that the Galaxy poll of Queensland respondents covered in the previous post also found that Kevin Rudd’s lead over Julia Gillard in the state at 67-21, and at 62-37 among Labor voters.
• News Limited tabloids carried another Galaxy poll yesterday, this one conducted online from a national sample of 606, which showed support for gay marriage at 50% against 33% opposed. However, 26% of respondents said legislation to allow gay marriage would make them less likely to vote Labor, against only 22% who said more likely.
• Labor has gone public with polling conducted for it by UMR Research, which apparently found that 25% of respondents “would vote for” Julian Assange if he ran for a Senate seat. This tendency was fairly evenly spread among supporters of different parties: 39% for Greens, 26% for Labor and 23% for Coalition. The combined figure is similar to the 23% of respondents to a Galaxy poll in September last year who rated themselves “likely” to vote for Katter’s Australian Party at the Queensland state election: 11.5% would actually do so. It is not clear if the poll was entirely national, as the report from Phillip Coorey in the Sydney Morning Herald only spoke of results from New South Wales and Victoria, which perhaps surprisingly showed slightly stronger support for Assange in the former.
Preselection:
• Tasmanian Labor Senator Nick Sherry, who had already announced he would not contest the next election, has brought forward his retirement. David Killick of The Mercury reports the vacancy looks set to be filled by Lin Thorp, member for the state upper house seat of Rumney from 1999 until her defeat in 2011. Thorp has the backing of Sherry’s Left faction, including from Premier Lara Giddings. However, earlier reports suggested others in the Left wanted a younger candidate, and that a move was on to have the party’s administrative committee reserve the position for a candidate from northern Tasmanian – with Launceston commercial lawyer Ross Hart fitting the bill on both counts. Notably, Unions Tasmania secretary Kevin Harkins, who was said to have been locked out preselection in 2007 because Kevin Rudd had him confused with Kevin Reynolds, and again in 2010 because Rudd did not want to admit to his mistake, had ruled himself out because “we’re likely to have a very conservative government in just a tad over 12 months’ time, (and) the best place for me is with the union movement”.
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
On the SMH website:
FMD.
We are so poorly served by the media in this country!
by confessions on May 21, 2012 at 8:33 pm
Dio:
…a bit like:
“WE decide who comes to this union management and the circumstances of their remuneration”
by Mod Lib on May 21, 2012 at 8:33 pm
The Fin Review article http://www.afr.com/p/national/emotional_thomson_attacks_abbott_JLjco1qFXJiPnKN4TuKciN
includes a reference to the Carter/Heffernan alleged assault.
“The issues surrounding Bill Heffernan have been dismissed by the NSW Liberal Party president and state director,” Mr Pyne said on Monday.
This statement clearly pre-empts the outcome of the police investigation into the matter.
“Mr Carter has filed a formal complaint with the Liberal Party and made a statutory declaration, backed by two witnesses, that detailed the incident, which allegedly took place on May 3 at the Breakers Country Club in Terrigal, while police have confirmed they are investigating the incident.”
Is this a form of interference in the police investigation?
by citizen on May 21, 2012 at 8:33 pm
LNRW:
Tut tut, where is your Christian charity? Clearly this poor working couple is doing it tough…
by fiona on May 21, 2012 at 8:33 pm
Who the hell is carol glen
David Donovan@davrosz
@Schnappi5 Yes. And why did Uhlmann not ask Jackson how Lawler had access to HSU official Carol Glen’s personal emails? http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/industrial-relations/fair-work-australia-vice-president-drawn-into-hsu-row/story-fn59noo3-1226263184928
by Schnappi on May 21, 2012 at 8:34 pm
BH and mr squiggle i’m pretty sure Paul howes said salary was 145k on twitter
by virtualkat on May 21, 2012 at 8:34 pm
zoidlord,
That’s what what happened in the two that i worked for. I can’t speak for any others but I feel that there is an opportunity being grabbed with glee by the opponents of organised labour at ther moment to demonise it for political partisan purposes!
by scorpio on May 21, 2012 at 8:34 pm
Kate McClymont, who has done most of the Thomson reporting.
She looks eerily similar to Niki Savva, so I’m presuming the two women are related?
by confessions on May 21, 2012 at 8:34 pm
No. I admit to being interested in how much union officials earn generally.
Given the stress of her job and its responsibilities, I don’t have any issue with hearing she is earning $270K. I think she’s earning it.
I have found an article where Howes is said to be on $146 K (which just pipps me, BTW).
http://www.canberratimes.com.au/national/actu-moves-on-union-governance-20120516-1yrnd.html?skin=text-only
by Mr Squiggle on May 21, 2012 at 8:34 pm
meant to say as well why has she not been mentioned today
by Schnappi on May 21, 2012 at 8:35 pm
Actually, Abbott will be remembered as Australia’s longest serving leaders of the opposition the way Gillard is going at the moment.
And boy doesn’t he know it!
by Son of foro on May 21, 2012 at 8:35 pm
It’s not like all these HSU officials are doing such a farking wonderful job that they deserve such a large salary.
Seriously I’ve said it before I know but the HSU really needs to be disbanded.
by Diogenes on May 21, 2012 at 8:36 pm
victoria:
The only people who can answer that are Liberals!
Mal Brough, James Ashby, JBishop, god knows who else.
by confessions on May 21, 2012 at 8:36 pm
Miranda Devine is now on Sky.
*switches off*
by confessions on May 21, 2012 at 8:37 pm
Schnappi:
Re Carol Glen –
http://www.vexnews.com/2012/05/whipped-high-ranking-fwa-official-michael-lawler-flipped-from-opus-dei-to-the-dangerous-cult-of-kathy-jackson/
by fiona on May 21, 2012 at 8:37 pm
Turning 4 corners off. Too depressing. The McCann case came up at Leveson.
by guytaur on May 21, 2012 at 8:38 pm
ROFL
I doubt if he will ever be prime minister, but should murdoch succeed the LIberals aren’t stupid enought to allow that to happen.
by fredn on May 21, 2012 at 8:38 pm
With the number of seats he is going to play with he can dump to his heart’s content.
Disappointment with new governments is common. A big buffer is the second best defence (the best being to deliver of course).
You guys realise there are 3 other stages of grief after Anger and Denial don’t you? When do we move to Acceptance?
by Mod Lib on May 21, 2012 at 8:39 pm
Kate McClymont who writes scathing articles about the PM.
by BH on May 21, 2012 at 8:40 pm
squiggle is from your side so you can share from the same bag of blue lollies
by Tom Hawkins on May 21, 2012 at 8:41 pm
fiona
Has the Jackson group voting issue been brought up by the media at all? I have not heard of this till you mentioned it.
by guytaur on May 21, 2012 at 8:41 pm
Dio:
When you consider the HSU represents some of the lowest paid workers in the country, the shenanigans we’ve seen play out are simply appalling.
I agree the union needs disbanding.
by confessions on May 21, 2012 at 8:41 pm
How did you know I like the blue smarties?
Have you been hovering beneath my shower window?
by Mod Lib on May 21, 2012 at 8:43 pm
No….No…No…..you cannot pay me $270k…….oh you can……bugger
by Last name red wombat on May 21, 2012 at 8:43 pm
@Mr Squiggle/808
I disagree – it’s not a real job.
When you work from 9-5 Monday to Friday, or some days on the weekend.
Dealing with Customers, Fixing Problems, Fixing other people’s stuff up’s, putting up with Managers and Owners of the company, then maybe you deserve that type of salary.
by zoidlord on May 21, 2012 at 8:43 pm
yuo have got to be joking. the PM earns only slightly more than that. she works for a union which collects money from the low paid. it is an absolute travesty that she gets paid this sum of money. 150k max even then she is not worth it. the conflict of interest between her and her husband at fair work australia is a disgrace.
by the spectator on May 21, 2012 at 8:43 pm
The HSU is more than just Hospital cleaners, it basically covers everyone in a Hospital that isn’t a Nurse or Dr
Of course things may have changed since I last went near a Hosptial
by mexicanbeemer on May 21, 2012 at 8:44 pm
Some discussion here re Abbott’s lowering of the bar, setting expectations etc & how he may take a hit on that if elected. I think one of the biggest & most interesting issues around today is that having installed Abbott as P.M, the media will have to decide how to treat him & what to do with him. Given its ownership & the fact that it has skin in the game, I think the media will create a country doing very nicely thank you to replace its current model of a groaning nation on the bones of its arse. I hope I’m wrong, I hope we never have an Abbott P.M. to force this decision on the fourth estate.
by BSA Bob on May 21, 2012 at 8:44 pm
Guytaur,
Not as far as I’m aware – but then a heck of a lot of the detail that VexNews has been citing is only just making its way into the msm. The Jackson-Lawler connexion is a prime example of that.
by fiona on May 21, 2012 at 8:44 pm
It means that is one of my first thoughts when I look/hear her on the 7:30.
‘haitch-ess-yieww’ etc
Its a Melbourne thing. I grew up next to Greeks, good friends when I was a kid.
by Mr Squiggle on May 21, 2012 at 8:45 pm
How about 8 to 8, Mon to Friday, both days of the weekend (or half days at least) then the following week Mon to Fri, and both days of the following weekend (or 3/4 days) then the full Mon to Fri of the next week?
by Mod Lib on May 21, 2012 at 8:45 pm
sounds like a taxi drivers or factory workers routine on 40k max.
by the spectator on May 21, 2012 at 8:47 pm
I disagree that being a Union leader isn’t a job, to say it isn’t is nearly as stupid as the blue v white collar argument that comes up occasionally
I find $270k for a union leader to be excessive but then again this is a matter for the members of the HSU
by mexicanbeemer on May 21, 2012 at 8:47 pm
BSA Bob,
And if any “journalist” shows signs of deviating from the agreed model, we all know what their fate will be.
by fiona on May 21, 2012 at 8:47 pm
@Mod Lib/830
Complain to your Taxi Union Officials
by zoidlord on May 21, 2012 at 8:49 pm
fiona
Yes any such journalist would be exiled to twitter.
by guytaur on May 21, 2012 at 8:50 pm
There is a fair chance that HSU East is going to be wound up since the Feds and NSW are running a race to appoint an adminstrator first in different courts
by shellbell on May 21, 2012 at 8:50 pm
Mr Squiggle
Bollocks.
My dad says “haitch” – he’s an Anglo-Irish Sydney-sider (who loathes Melbourne with a passion) educated by the Christian Brothers. The “haitch” pronunciation is strongly correlated with Catholic upbringing/education.
by fiona on May 21, 2012 at 8:50 pm
Wonder why i have the feeling that not thompson ,but jackson,williamson and jacksons ex husband are the HSU rippoff merchants,the money trail appears to say so.
About time we knew what is in the williamson suitcase confiscated by police two weeks ago.
by Schnappi on May 21, 2012 at 8:51 pm
1 July.
by Son of foro on May 21, 2012 at 8:51 pm
I thought “haitch” would get you a ruler across the knuckles in Catholic schools.
by Mod Lib on May 21, 2012 at 8:51 pm
What a laugh. The press gallery are just one great, big groupthinking bubble who happily follow the herd and toe the line.
by confessions on May 21, 2012 at 8:53 pm
Guytaur,
You are more optimistic than I: serious re-education seems much more likely.
And just remember, nobody expects the Spanish Inquisition.
by fiona on May 21, 2012 at 8:53 pm
ML:
Off running your victory lap again, are you?
by Aguirre on May 21, 2012 at 8:53 pm
@mexicanbeemer/832
It has nothing to do with being blue v white collar argument.
by zoidlord on May 21, 2012 at 8:53 pm
OK, lets lock that date it.
I might just mention at this juncture that we had “peak Abbott” more than 12 months ago, then it was the starting of the new senate, then the carbon tax legislation, then the new year, then the leadership spill……is July 1st going to be the final line in the sand?
by Mod Lib on May 21, 2012 at 8:54 pm
Yes, this is consistent with my own observations as well.
by confessions on May 21, 2012 at 8:54 pm
The more you know about Kathy Jackson & her associates, the more dodgy she looks.
by The Finnigans on May 21, 2012 at 8:54 pm
Zoidlord – I know, I was using an analogy
by mexicanbeemer on May 21, 2012 at 8:55 pm
Ha! Another Howard failure. He appointed special bodies to go after unions. Did not find any of the things FWA has unearthed. So as long and flawed as it is. It is still much much better than JWH could manage.
by guytaur on May 21, 2012 at 8:55 pm