Essential Research: 56-44 to Coalition
The latest Essential Research result has Labor gaining a point on two-party preferred for the second week in a row, with the Coalition now leading 56-44, and has Labor gaining three points on the primary vote – a very unusual occurrence in this series, which publishes weekly results derived from a two-week rolling average. Labor’s primary vote is at 33%, with the Coalition and the Greens each down a point to 49% and 10% respectively.
The first of the supplementary questions measures respondents’ knowledge rather than opinions: namely, the question of whether interest rates are higher or lower now than they were when Labor came to power, the purpose presumably being to determine whether misapprehensions are behind Labor’s diabolical polling. A majority (35% to 20%) were in fact aware that they were now lower, but only 10% thought they were a little lower against 25% for a lot, when the official interest rate has in fact gone from 6.75% to 3.75%. Respondents were then asked how much credit they gave Labor for the drop: 7% said a lot, 19% a fair amount, 27% a little and 35% none. Further questions cover the casualisation of the workforce, the mining boom, the value of various industries to average Australians, and the notion that the government is engaged in “class warfare” (28% agree, 46% disagree).
Further polling snippets:
• Yesterday’s Sunday Mail reported that the Galaxy poll of Queensland respondents covered in the previous post also found that Kevin Rudd’s lead over Julia Gillard in the state at 67-21, and at 62-37 among Labor voters.
• News Limited tabloids carried another Galaxy poll yesterday, this one conducted online from a national sample of 606, which showed support for gay marriage at 50% against 33% opposed. However, 26% of respondents said legislation to allow gay marriage would make them less likely to vote Labor, against only 22% who said more likely.
• Labor has gone public with polling conducted for it by UMR Research, which apparently found that 25% of respondents “would vote for” Julian Assange if he ran for a Senate seat. This tendency was fairly evenly spread among supporters of different parties: 39% for Greens, 26% for Labor and 23% for Coalition. The combined figure is similar to the 23% of respondents to a Galaxy poll in September last year who rated themselves “likely” to vote for Katter’s Australian Party at the Queensland state election: 11.5% would actually do so. It is not clear if the poll was entirely national, as the report from Phillip Coorey in the Sydney Morning Herald only spoke of results from New South Wales and Victoria, which perhaps surprisingly showed slightly stronger support for Assange in the former.
Preselection:
• Tasmanian Labor Senator Nick Sherry, who had already announced he would not contest the next election, has brought forward his retirement. David Killick of The Mercury reports the vacancy looks set to be filled by Lin Thorp, member for the state upper house seat of Rumney from 1999 until her defeat in 2011. Thorp has the backing of Sherry’s Left faction, including from Premier Lara Giddings. However, earlier reports suggested others in the Left wanted a younger candidate, and that a move was on to have the party’s administrative committee reserve the position for a candidate from northern Tasmanian – with Launceston commercial lawyer Ross Hart fitting the bill on both counts. Notably, Unions Tasmania secretary Kevin Harkins, who was said to have been locked out preselection in 2007 because Kevin Rudd had him confused with Kevin Reynolds, and again in 2010 because Rudd did not want to admit to his mistake, had ruled himself out because “we’re likely to have a very conservative government in just a tad over 12 months’ time, (and) the best place for me is with the union movement”.
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
(“haitch” pronunciation is strongly correlated with Catholic upbringing/education.)
No its a state bassed
Victorians skeeel
We say schoool. Victorian now put an upward i flection, the end of words
And when they kiss u they use tbis very strange word, amwar, or so mething
Qlanders call bags ports,
The h pronunciation has nothing todo with christian bros, as they came from all states
by my say on May 21, 2012 at 9:55 pm
Marian Dalton@crazyjane13
The Conscience Vote: Craig Thomson’s day in kangaroo court. http://tinyurl.com/86jxj4u #mediawatch #auspol #qanda #thomson
by Schnappi on May 21, 2012 at 9:56 pm
They run a strict means test for Pro-Bono work at Harmers….what the case might means for the big end of town.
by joe2 on May 21, 2012 at 9:58 pm
shellbell
I agree that forgetting one amongst many would be normal. But, OTOH, the madames or minders would probably have a vested interest in knowing who was who and what was what. You would think that somewhere along the line just one provider remembered something.
If there are alibis that demonstrate that in at least one case:
(1) Mr Thomson’s credit card was used
(2) Mr Thomson’s driver’s licence number was used
(3) Mr Thomson’s phone was cloned
While Mr Thomson was somewhere else, then the onus of proof becomes very difficult for the prosecution for any other possible instances.
by Boerwar on May 21, 2012 at 9:59 pm
Ms Lette is name dropping. I am getting a bit sick of her already.
by Boerwar on May 21, 2012 at 9:59 pm
Greg Sheridan the US is the villian in this. Not Assange
by guytaur on May 21, 2012 at 9:59 pm
g
Mr Sheridan is quite right on that count and is quite right that Mr Assange should have blacked out the names of the innocent.
by Boerwar on May 21, 2012 at 10:00 pm
You get the impression she has rehearsed some funny lines and is eager to get them out to impress the punters.
by Mod Lib on May 21, 2012 at 10:01 pm
ML
IMHO, she is the fly in the ointment of an excellent panel.
by Boerwar on May 21, 2012 at 10:02 pm
Good waterboarding question
by Schnappi on May 21, 2012 at 10:02 pm
bw
I would agree. Two caveats.
1). There have been no credible reports of harm done to any innocents.
2). You have to know who the innocent are to blank out their names.
by guytaur on May 21, 2012 at 10:03 pm
Channel 7 and its cameras have form. Ref my post at 898. I would believe it true rather than not.
My own view is that the whole stinking Augean stables need to be flushed out but how to do it is the question.
Can the Minister for Communications just set up a Leveson style enquiry? Do you need parliamentary approval for a Royal Commission?
Would the sun become a black dwarf before the enquiry was finished, there being so much bile in the excuse that passes for media in Australia?
I used to rubbish my local (free) rag, the Logan and Albert Times. It is a paragon of virtue amongst all the garbage printed today by the msm. I’m not sure I’d even believe any of the classifieds in the Terrorgraph, for example.
by Allan Moyes on May 21, 2012 at 10:03 pm
ML:
Interesting observation. Does Ms Lette think that she is the Oscar Wilde of the 21st century?
by fiona on May 21, 2012 at 10:04 pm
Cf Mr Sheridan’s moral issue with torture, the problem with torture is that you don’t know that torture is ‘worth it’ in terms of saving lives until you do it.
by Boerwar on May 21, 2012 at 10:04 pm
I really like the Russian journalist’s views. On the ball I reckon.
The CIA agent has been getting slam dunked all night poor soul.
by Mod Lib on May 21, 2012 at 10:06 pm
Hmmm. CIA is to the left of the GOP and Murdoch.
by guytaur on May 21, 2012 at 10:06 pm
ML
He is redeeming himself right now. And yeski on the Russki. She is tops.
by Boerwar on May 21, 2012 at 10:07 pm
hahahahaha…..Sheridan a shill
by Last name red wombat on May 21, 2012 at 10:07 pm
The CIA chap is just giving a lesson on how to torture people.
by Boerwar on May 21, 2012 at 10:08 pm
Would Pyne in the chamber be considered torture?
by Last name red wombat on May 21, 2012 at 10:10 pm
It might be just me, but I dont have a huge problem with keeping suspected terrorists up for 16 hours. Water boarding a definite no-no though.
by Mod Lib on May 21, 2012 at 10:10 pm
Bet abbott and his thugs are all ears,probably doing the hokey pokey to the cia bloke and sheridan.
by Schnappi on May 21, 2012 at 10:10 pm
This is an excellent Q&A discussion.
by Boerwar on May 21, 2012 at 10:11 pm
Craig Thomson question
by guytaur on May 21, 2012 at 10:12 pm
ML
You have under-cooked the egg. The purpose of keeping them up for 16 hours is all the things you do to them in the 16 hours – the aim of which is to destroy totally their sense of time.
by Boerwar on May 21, 2012 at 10:12 pm
Wikileaks did not release the unredacted messages – the Journalist at the Gaurdian did, by publishing the password in his book.
by JohD on May 21, 2012 at 10:14 pm
JohD @ 925
I take you point. But perhaps Mr Assange did not exercise sufficient duty of care about whom he trusted with the info.
by Boerwar on May 21, 2012 at 10:15 pm
Q&A titters about Craig Thomson. He is such fun. His rights being trashed are so funny.
All this of course is coming from a Russian blow-in who’s only been here a few days.
She would know.
by Bushfire Bill on May 21, 2012 at 10:15 pm
Once again. Death by journalists. NEws Ltd. journalists.
Sheridan admits he has no knowledge of the Thomson affair, but condemns him anyway.
by Bushfire Bill on May 21, 2012 at 10:18 pm
We laugh about torture just minutes after being horrified by it.
A funny species we are aint we?
by Mod Lib on May 21, 2012 at 10:19 pm
CIA guy calls it Star Chamber Justice.
by guytaur on May 21, 2012 at 10:20 pm
Mr Jones has just made the point I have made repeatedly: why not a single sex worker or madame has come forward?
by Boerwar on May 21, 2012 at 10:20 pm
Is Kate McClymont of the Sydney Morning Herald the same woman who went to Firbank Anglican Girls Grammar in Brighton, Vic
by billie on May 21, 2012 at 10:20 pm
American blow-in tells us that Thomson is guilty because an American congressman was guilty.
It’s so funny. Thomson is such a figure of fun. He would be laughing too. They discussing torturing him now.
Add that to baseball bats, chaff bags, kicking people to death, burning at the stake and putting targets on him and we have just about the whole suite of disposal methods applied.
The American would be good at spotting frauds. So Jones asks him if Thomson is fraud.
by Bushfire Bill on May 21, 2012 at 10:20 pm
Ms Lette turning it all into herself and dribble.
Next, please.
by Boerwar on May 21, 2012 at 10:21 pm
Interesting that the CIA guy was making good points about Thomson but was cut off pretty quickly.
by BH on May 21, 2012 at 10:22 pm
Tony Jones ends the decapitation of Thomson with a cute reply from Kathy Lette about her son, and the words, “OK, let’s move on.”
Why bother having courts, evidence, justice when Q&A can suss out the turth in the space of a few laughs, a couple of words from a News Ltd journalist and a discussion of torturing the truth out of an Australian Member of Parliament by an ex-CIA torturer?
by Bushfire Bill on May 21, 2012 at 10:23 pm
“…Sweat more than Paris Hilton doing a Suduko”
Like that was spontaneous……yeah right!
by Mod Lib on May 21, 2012 at 10:24 pm
ML
Yep.
by Boerwar on May 21, 2012 at 10:24 pm
If Ms Gessan goes back to Russia she is for the high jump.
by Boerwar on May 21, 2012 at 10:25 pm
Just a Thomson thought ..
At least two of the escort services bills were in the order of thousands of dollars, including the one on the 2UE mock-up.
This would be a bulk bill for several blokes. Whoever organised was shouting his mates as well as himself.
If one of these mates comes forward, all will be revealed.
Of course, after several years, no-one in his right mind would.
Bet they are all hoping they are not on film.
Was it true that these escort places have to keep a film for six years, or is this just an urban legend?
by deewhytony on May 21, 2012 at 10:25 pm
Oops, Ms Gessen is the correct spelling.
by Boerwar on May 21, 2012 at 10:28 pm
dwt
Sure, the 2UE mockup. Bricking.
by Boerwar on May 21, 2012 at 10:30 pm
BB
Perhaps I misunderstood but it seemed to me the ex-CIA guy was alluding that Thomson’s claims may have weight when Lette conveniently hijacked his analysis. story on herself.
by Dee on May 21, 2012 at 10:30 pm
She’d already declared Thomson guilty and a liar so she had to stop the reasonable analysis. Might show her up for the airhead behaviour tonight.
by BH on May 21, 2012 at 10:32 pm
Dee
The CIA guy was using terms like ‘…Star Chambre…’. He used the McCarthy list of 300 as part of his context. Clearly he was saying be careful.
As you say, Ms Lette chimed in at that juncture with, ‘Look at moi…encore une fois!’
by Boerwar on May 21, 2012 at 10:33 pm
Oh she is f#$king hilarious
by Last name red wombat on May 21, 2012 at 10:33 pm
Rob Oakshott next
by guytaur on May 21, 2012 at 10:34 pm
A generally excellent Q&A, less the two grandstanders – Ms Lette and Mr Jones.
by Boerwar on May 21, 2012 at 10:35 pm
Another good panel next week
by guytaur on May 21, 2012 at 10:35 pm