Essential Research: 56-44 to Coalition
The latest Essential Research result has Labor gaining a point on two-party preferred for the second week in a row, with the Coalition now leading 56-44, and has Labor gaining three points on the primary vote – a very unusual occurrence in this series, which publishes weekly results derived from a two-week rolling average. Labor’s primary vote is at 33%, with the Coalition and the Greens each down a point to 49% and 10% respectively.
The first of the supplementary questions measures respondents’ knowledge rather than opinions: namely, the question of whether interest rates are higher or lower now than they were when Labor came to power, the purpose presumably being to determine whether misapprehensions are behind Labor’s diabolical polling. A majority (35% to 20%) were in fact aware that they were now lower, but only 10% thought they were a little lower against 25% for a lot, when the official interest rate has in fact gone from 6.75% to 3.75%. Respondents were then asked how much credit they gave Labor for the drop: 7% said a lot, 19% a fair amount, 27% a little and 35% none. Further questions cover the casualisation of the workforce, the mining boom, the value of various industries to average Australians, and the notion that the government is engaged in “class warfare” (28% agree, 46% disagree).
Further polling snippets:
• Yesterday’s Sunday Mail reported that the Galaxy poll of Queensland respondents covered in the previous post also found that Kevin Rudd’s lead over Julia Gillard in the state at 67-21, and at 62-37 among Labor voters.
• News Limited tabloids carried another Galaxy poll yesterday, this one conducted online from a national sample of 606, which showed support for gay marriage at 50% against 33% opposed. However, 26% of respondents said legislation to allow gay marriage would make them less likely to vote Labor, against only 22% who said more likely.
• Labor has gone public with polling conducted for it by UMR Research, which apparently found that 25% of respondents “would vote for” Julian Assange if he ran for a Senate seat. This tendency was fairly evenly spread among supporters of different parties: 39% for Greens, 26% for Labor and 23% for Coalition. The combined figure is similar to the 23% of respondents to a Galaxy poll in September last year who rated themselves “likely” to vote for Katter’s Australian Party at the Queensland state election: 11.5% would actually do so. It is not clear if the poll was entirely national, as the report from Phillip Coorey in the Sydney Morning Herald only spoke of results from New South Wales and Victoria, which perhaps surprisingly showed slightly stronger support for Assange in the former.
Preselection:
• Tasmanian Labor Senator Nick Sherry, who had already announced he would not contest the next election, has brought forward his retirement. David Killick of The Mercury reports the vacancy looks set to be filled by Lin Thorp, member for the state upper house seat of Rumney from 1999 until her defeat in 2011. Thorp has the backing of Sherry’s Left faction, including from Premier Lara Giddings. However, earlier reports suggested others in the Left wanted a younger candidate, and that a move was on to have the party’s administrative committee reserve the position for a candidate from northern Tasmanian – with Launceston commercial lawyer Ross Hart fitting the bill on both counts. Notably, Unions Tasmania secretary Kevin Harkins, who was said to have been locked out preselection in 2007 because Kevin Rudd had him confused with Kevin Reynolds, and again in 2010 because Rudd did not want to admit to his mistake, had ruled himself out because “we’re likely to have a very conservative government in just a tad over 12 months’ time, (and) the best place for me is with the union movement”.
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
To be honest, I’ve regarded Ms Lette as a pseudette ever since 1979.
by fiona on May 21, 2012 at 10:37 pm
Deewhytony if it got out the escort agencies recorded all their clients their revenue would likely dry up. There could be some worried clients at present.
But again attention is being focused on the minor part of the issues in relation to HSU. There are bigger issues involving much larger amounts of money that potentially have much more serious matters to be addressed. The NSW police have HSU records going back years and will be looking into things more serious than some escort services.
by davidwh on May 21, 2012 at 10:37 pm
bw
Yes even Greg Shiridan had some good points to make. Away from his shill duties.
by guytaur on May 21, 2012 at 10:38 pm
g
yep
by Boerwar on May 21, 2012 at 10:39 pm
Glad Oakshott is outnumbered on this one.
by guytaur on May 21, 2012 at 10:39 pm
A decent QANDA for a change. No coincidence there are no politicians on the panel.
by Diogenes on May 21, 2012 at 10:39 pm
DWH
I thought that the NSW police had already decided that there was not enough evidence of criminal activity for charges to be laid.
by Boerwar on May 21, 2012 at 10:40 pm
Mr Bolgano also thinks that Mr Thomson is delusional.
by Boerwar on May 21, 2012 at 10:40 pm
No matter what you believe about guilt or innocent of Mr Thomson. Any rational person must agree with him about Abbott trashing innocent until proven guilty. Thus not fit to be an MP let alone Pm.
by guytaur on May 21, 2012 at 10:44 pm
Sorry, that should have Mr Marco ‘Bolano’.
by Boerwar on May 21, 2012 at 10:44 pm
Of course Mr Bolgano is a Man with a lot of integrity, I mean you would by a used car of the bloke, wouldn’t you ?
by Mick Collins on May 21, 2012 at 10:44 pm
Mr Thomson says he wrote a letter about the threat but Ms Jackson there was no such letter.
by Boerwar on May 21, 2012 at 10:45 pm
MC
Cf Mr Bolano, I don’t know anything about him. He might be 100% integrity-wise. Or the reverse. What would we know?
by Boerwar on May 21, 2012 at 10:45 pm
Boerwar only on the credit charge matter because they don’t have jurisdiction over the matter. They passed that matter on to VIC police. NSW police are investigating possible fraud and corruption matters in relation to HSU NSW/HSU EAST. It may not involve Thomson although NSW police did say Thomson remains a person of interest.
by davidwh on May 21, 2012 at 10:45 pm
guytaur
Got my vote
by Schnappi on May 21, 2012 at 10:46 pm
Where is the outrage about Australias modern day McCarthist Abbott led witch hunt?
by guytaur on May 21, 2012 at 10:46 pm
Hockey’s dog ate it?
by Last name red wombat on May 21, 2012 at 10:46 pm
Imagine a meal at the Geoffrey Robertson QC/Kathy Lette dinner table.
It would be a self-importanceathon
by shellbell on May 21, 2012 at 10:47 pm
BB, fancy doing a write up of Q&A’s treatment of Thomson for http://the-abc-has-gone-to-hell.tumblr.com/ ?
by TAHGTH on May 21, 2012 at 10:47 pm
Guytaur lots of people think Abbott isn’t fit to be PM but that may not prevent him from being our next PM. Democracy sucks at times.
by davidwh on May 21, 2012 at 10:48 pm
These escort agency transactions are problematic for FWA and the coalition.
1. They all occur within a limited time-frame, about 7 in total as I recall, all over a two year period. Problematic because you don’t suddenly start using prostitution services and suddenly turn off the tap. Sexual habits are hard to break.
2. All of them are for innocuous sounding businesses like restaurant names etc – hard for a spouse or boss to identify without some digging. So that blows ol’ Pyney’s gripe about why he authorized payment. He authorized payment because he thought it was a restaurant bill.
3. All the bills are in the range of $520 or so – seems to be the going rate for a one trick pony (5 of them). The 6th one was for about $2,450- much, much more than one-trick. Either Thomson was feeling very lonely or was treating the fellas to an orgy. This bill was later transferred to his Diners club account. (which accounts for the 7/6 transaction confusion.)
4. the FWA suggests that the fact that he was in Perth during one transaction in Sydney could be explained by the fact that the Escort Service was “national” (they had escort services throughout Australia, except Victoria and Queensland. Yes I know, it begs the question about just what exactly “national” means) The fact is that many businesses today are national. I run a website that is “national”, but I sure don’t have offices in every city. I simply have reciprocal arrangements with local businesses to service my customers. I get a referral fee. FWA does not examine if this was the case or not. The only infer that Thomson used the escort services in Perth. Unfortunately for them, this is also one of Thomson’s corrupt “traveling with your partner” episodes. But hey, Maybe Thomson was so addicted to hookers he pulled a fast one on his lady and hired another room? FWA did not check that.
4. FWA preemptively suggest a scenario to explain the protestations from Thomson that he was not in Sydney on another two instances he is supposed to have visited a brothel by suggesting that the Brothel did not necessarily bank the transaction on the day of the visit, but later. Seems Brothel owners don’t have cash-flow issues, and are very lackadaisical businessmen. They don’t have EFTPOS services either. I know what you are thinking: THE GIRL CAME TO HIS ROOM. Unfortunately the FWA spends considerable amount of energy placing Thomson near the brothel by analyzing his cabcharge dockets. Can’t use both arguments simultaneously.
These are just some of the issues with the FWA allegations. I am pretty certain a half-decent lawyer will pull them to pieces.
I think Thomson did a pretty good job of setting out his opening arguments today. A whole lot of people are feeling a whole lot more uncomfortable as a result.
He is the kind of hero I like: taking on all comers, smart, thinking outside the box and the underdog. If he goes down, it will be for some insignificant side issue not even seriously pursued in the original investigation. Some kind of booby prize for the punters who lose their shirts, that they will present up as a defense for calling him “scum”.
by JohD on May 21, 2012 at 10:48 pm
Who just happened to be in Canberra today.
And who just happened to have a media release ready to go after Thomson’s speech.
http://www.scribd.com/doc/94254869/Marco-Bolano-Media-Release-on-Craig-Thomson
It would appear Bolano knew he was going to be named. This whole thing stinks to high heaven.
by confessions on May 21, 2012 at 10:48 pm
dwh
Ta. In other words, you are speculating about potential possibilities.
by Boerwar on May 21, 2012 at 10:49 pm
I will watch QandA on IView later but it sounds a very different panel to the usual ones.
If Craig Thomson’s protagonists are out there questioning his sanity, he has some people severely rattled.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on May 21, 2012 at 10:50 pm
by victoria on May 21, 2012 at 10:50 pm
Shellbell
I’d rather not, thank you.
But at least they would each have one steadfast admirer.
(I’m thinking self-admiration, btw…)
by fiona on May 21, 2012 at 10:51 pm
confessions
Mr Bolano would have been foolish indeed not to be fully prepared. I actually have a bit of concern that Mr Thosmon has used privilege to name people who do not have the same options.
Let’s just do a scenario in which Mr Thomson is guilty as hell and they are as innocent as the driven snow… and Mr Thomons abuses privilege….
by Boerwar on May 21, 2012 at 10:51 pm
PTMD
Well, over time I have been accused by quite a swag of Bludgers of being crazy. I just hope they did it because they were rattled.
by Boerwar on May 21, 2012 at 10:52 pm
This whole Thomson affair stinks. Not Thomson, but the which hunt.
The whole trashing of the presumption of innocence (On their ABC,. I saw some obsequious piece of excrement from Newscorpse claim that he was “Guilty”, no matter what the outcome of any ivestigation). Especially from the Opposition
The aparant hounding of his family from the media.
And the total in difference to the involvement of Kathy Jackson in defrauding the HSU, not to mention her partners conflict of interest.
The Opposition and press pack hyenas have dragged our democracy into a very dangerous precedent
by Mick Collins on May 21, 2012 at 10:54 pm
davidwh
When the media reports Abbott’s role accurately, by using a bad photo of Abbott with the headline; “Australia’s McCarthy”
Then see people’s opinion change.
by guytaur on May 21, 2012 at 10:54 pm
Boerwar
How did that turn out?
by victoria on May 21, 2012 at 10:54 pm
I think that the way Kathy Lette referred to “the hand” groping her in bed, at night was disgraceful. Utterly disrepectful of Geoffrey and their marriage.
How would she feel if referred to in this way? Utter hypocrite.
by clements steve on May 21, 2012 at 10:54 pm
by Dee on May 21, 2012 at 10:54 pm
v
Well, I was right about what they said I was crazy about, but that does not necessarily mean that I wasn’t crazy, either.
by Boerwar on May 21, 2012 at 10:56 pm
But if he’s as innocent as he claims, why would he even expect to be named by Thomson today, when all the public argy-bargy has occured between Thomson, Jackson and Williamson?
by confessions on May 21, 2012 at 10:56 pm
Mr Oakshott is pretty well saying that the line in the sand for him is whether Mr Thomson has misled parliament.
by Boerwar on May 21, 2012 at 10:56 pm
Boerwar
Therefore it stands to reason that Thomson may be right, and also crazy!
Anyhow night all
by victoria on May 21, 2012 at 10:57 pm
confessions
Because he ‘knows’ that Mr Thomson is delusional?
by Boerwar on May 21, 2012 at 10:57 pm
v
Good night. Sleep well.
by Boerwar on May 21, 2012 at 10:57 pm
Good night, all.
by Boerwar on May 21, 2012 at 10:58 pm
confessions
Knowing the Pyne thing is suss. Knowing he was going to b named is not. He was on the front page of the Terror.
Its why Morris was so despondent on Sly.
by guytaur on May 21, 2012 at 10:58 pm
Boerwar
Jackson has been in our faces for months slagging off at Thomson.
The media refuse to publish his opinion.
Like Thomson said to two journos on twitter. They had written a dozen articles on him without once contacting him for comment.
The FWA requested the report be released under parliamentary privilege.
I don’t see any problems with Thomson rebutting under the same privilege.
by Dee on May 21, 2012 at 10:59 pm
Then why single Bolano out, out of all those other employees?
by confessions on May 21, 2012 at 11:00 pm
Confessions, The Daily Telegraph suggested either today or yesterday that Bolano would be named by Thomson in parliament today, so in that sense Bolano did have prior warning.
Oddly enough, Thomson seems to have become a little chummy with the DT recently.
Guess he can’t use Fairfax…
by Henry on May 21, 2012 at 11:01 pm
guytaur:
I have never heard of Marco Bolano in relation to Craig Thomson’s situation ever before today.
I’ve never seen his name appear in reportage.
by confessions on May 21, 2012 at 11:02 pm
Boerwar
Of course your as nutty as tin of peanut brittle, but that’s understandable, what with all the wet-nurse issues.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on May 21, 2012 at 11:03 pm
Oakeshott nailed the FWA issue. The allegations by Thomson against FWA have to be dealt with quickly. The government should act to require FWA to respond to those allegations quickly.
by davidwh on May 21, 2012 at 11:04 pm
Henry:
If that’s the case then it would explain why Bolano was in Canberra today.
by confessions on May 21, 2012 at 11:04 pm
Really don’t have time for PB currently and also didn’t intend to waste my time on Q & A tonight but got drawn in so just before going back to work matters, for what it’s worth, I’ve got to agree with many here that it was a cracker of a Q & A. The Russian writer Gessen should be nominated for something great, she’d have to be one of the most articulate, unpretentious, honest observers and thinkers currently on the planet. She was the standout but they all spoke sense more often than not and I forgive Ms Lette because it’s hard not only with her career, her son but fancy having to put up also with Geoffrey Robertson and his equally eccentric clients.
by Mick77 on May 21, 2012 at 11:05 pm
JohD@970,
Perspicacious analysis.
I have one question: It has been stated that all bar one of the ‘services’ for Mr Thomson were by Escorts and not in Brothels, therefore the Sex Worker came to the Hotel room, rather than being in the brothel and able to be filmed. Therefore there is a question to be asked of Thomson being that he cannot possibly believe that there was footage of what went on his Hotel rooms with the Escorts. As far as the ‘Touch of Class’ Brothel is concerned, there may not be footage if they only have to keep it for 5 years and his alleged offense occurred > 5 years ago.
So maybe a red herring to ask the police to track this potentially non-existent footage down?
Just being Devil’s Advocate here.
by C@tmomma on May 21, 2012 at 11:05 pm