Morgan face-to-face: 58-42 to Coalition; Seat of the week: Eden-Monaro
The latest Morgan face-to-face poll, conducted last week from a sample of 893, shows a slight improvement for Labor, up 1.5% to 32% on the primary vote with the Coalition down half a point to 45.5% and the Greens down 1.5% to 10.5%. This translates into a one point improvement on the respondent-allocated two-party preferred measure, from 59-48 to 58-42, and a half-point improvement on the previous election method, down from 55.5-44.5 to 55-45.
UPDATE (28/5/12): Essential Research has Labor losing one of the points on two-party preferred it clawed back over previous weeks, the result now at 57-43. Primary votes are 50% for the Coalition (up one), 33% for Labor (steady) and 10% for the Greens (steady). Other questions gauged views on the parties’ respective “attributes”, with all negative responses for Labor (chiefly “divided” and “will promise anything to win votes”) rating higher than all positives, and the Liberal Party doing rather better, rating well for “moderate” and “understands the problems facing Australia”. Bewilderingly, only slightly more respondents (35%) were willing to rate the state of the economy as “good” than “bad” (29%), with 33% opting for neither, although 43% rated the position of their household satisfactory against 28% unsatisfactory.
In today’s installment of Seat of the Week, it’s everybody’s favourite:
Seat of the week: Eden-Monaro
Taking in the south-eastern corner of New South Wales, including Queanbeyan, Cooma, Tumut and the coast from Batemans Bay south to Eden and the Victorian border, Eden-Monaro is renowned throughout the land as the seat that goes with the party who wins the election. Until 2007 its record as a bellwether was in fact surpassed by Macarthur, which had gone with the winning party at every election since its creation in 1949, but while Eden-Monaro stayed true to form by being among the seven New South Wales seats to switch to Labor with the election of the Rudd government, Liberal member Pat Farmer held on in Macarthur. The seat bucked the statewide trend in 2010 by recording a 2.0% swing to Labor, in what was very likely a vote of confidence in the popular local member, Mike Kelly.
Perhaps explaining its bellwether status, Eden-Monaro offers something of a microcosm of the state at large, if not the entire country. It incorporates suburban Queanbeyan, rural centres Cooma and Bega, coastal towns Eden and Narooma, and agricultural areas sprinkled with small towns. Labor’s strongest area is the electorate is the Canberra satellite town of Queanbeyan, excluding its Liberal-leaning outer suburb of Jerrabomberra. The coastal areas, which swung particularly heavily to Labor in 2007, can be divided between a finely balanced centre and areas of Liberal strength at the northern and southern extremities, respectively around Batemans Bay and Merimbula. The smaller inland towns are solidly conservative, but Cooma is highly marginal. The area covered by the electorate has been remarkably little changed over the years: it has been locked into the state’s south-eastern corner since federation, and its geographic size has remained fairly consistent as increases in the size of parliament cancelled out the effects of relative population decline. Outside of the interruption from 2007 and 2010, when it expanded westwards to Tumut and Tumbarumba, its boundaries since 1998 have been almost identical to those it had before 1913.
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Categories: Federal Election 2013, Federal Politics 2010-
4616
Does any one remember when q t was as boring as ironing, i do it was sort of in the background
Noise, when folding 6 doz nappies and iron 21 shirts, school and work.
I wish for those days again, I will be telling my grandchildren never to vote liberal
In fact the 6 year old has been told already,
This acccount of our history i have written on my diary, for them to read
NEVER EVER FOR GET
by my say on May 24, 2012 at 2:02 pm
It still is my say. Complete waste of time. QT is good in theory, silly in practice.
by ltep on May 24, 2012 at 2:03 pm
Notice the smirk
by my say on May 24, 2012 at 2:04 pm
Combet put his foot in it today, apparently.
by triton on May 24, 2012 at 2:04 pm
Didn’t Abbott ask the same questions yesterday?
by ruawake on May 24, 2012 at 2:04 pm
my say, that #IPA git Tim Wilson?
by The Finnigans on May 24, 2012 at 2:05 pm
george has located the ACA prossy!
http://tinyurl.com/7q8djdw
by BK on May 24, 2012 at 2:06 pm
No no itep
Its now very scary, nasty rude, dismissive, and disruptive.’
But yes my oh made your comment yesterda , said they could ring each other ?”
by my say on May 24, 2012 at 2:07 pm
Today’s MPI:
by triton on May 24, 2012 at 2:08 pm
Truzzzzzzzzzzzz with a most original question.
Bloody pathetic!
by BK on May 24, 2012 at 2:08 pm
Truzzzzzzzzzzzz
Has lost the plot. What an inciteful question.
by ruawake on May 24, 2012 at 2:08 pm
My goodness hope george has this link on twitter
Whose tim wilson
by my say on May 24, 2012 at 2:08 pm
Truss didn’t even try to be original.
by triton on May 24, 2012 at 2:08 pm
The House crone sat down by Anna.
by BK on May 24, 2012 at 2:09 pm
Is that all that Truzzzzzz can come up with? He just asked for the PM to slap the coalition down.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on May 24, 2012 at 2:09 pm
triton
Not only that. The Truss question served as a Dorothy Dixer. The problem when you stick up for the big end of town. Mind you I do not remember Truss being this bad during Howard years. Maybe its just he did not get the call.
by guytaur on May 24, 2012 at 2:11 pm
BB from the last thread,
The fluffing idiot was John Murphy, Member for Reid.
by fiona on May 24, 2012 at 2:11 pm
fiona
careful. fluffing is a porn movie term.
by guytaur on May 24, 2012 at 2:12 pm
Does any one think that they realise , the speaker will ignore them ,
Or dot they understand the rules after all these years lol:-)
by my say on May 24, 2012 at 2:12 pm
BISON time
by guytaur on May 24, 2012 at 2:12 pm
I believe it is Peter Hendy as the liberal candidate for Eden monaro William.
I think BB was referring to the blustering lib before John Murphy Finns.
My local member incidentally…
by Henry on May 24, 2012 at 2:12 pm
Looks like Truzz drew the short straw for the “Hit me, I’m an idiot” question.
Lot of contenders for that title it must be said.
by Henry on May 24, 2012 at 2:14 pm
Notice the arms fold, across the table
by my say on May 24, 2012 at 2:14 pm
Scott Buchholz was the puffed up fluffer.
by ruawake on May 24, 2012 at 2:16 pm
That was fast back into the mud
by guytaur on May 24, 2012 at 2:17 pm
Prissy still on Thomson. Annoying little prat!
by BK on May 24, 2012 at 2:17 pm
Julia about to get her dander up.
by BK on May 24, 2012 at 2:18 pm
The investment pipeline now is half a Trillion, yes that 500 Billions – $500,000,000,000 – what A BISON!!!!!!!
by The Finnigans on May 24, 2012 at 2:18 pm
@BK/26
That’s because it’s gets his attention off himself from Ashby.
by zoidlord on May 24, 2012 at 2:18 pm
Windsor serving great dixer to combat
by guytaur on May 24, 2012 at 2:19 pm
No Budget Bounce
______________
As I and othes predicted there had been no budget bounce for Gillard,and the Fed Govt
Money given out in the Budget hasn’t caused any real response…as the song says “money can’t buy me love”
I guess that the Thomson affair has smothered all other issues and fanned the public’s toxic attitudes tp the Govt(in fact to all governments I suspect…see also Ted Bailleau’s troubles in Vic
)
Clever work by the LOTO and his cronies …but it has paid off…and we should recognise how clever they are at it …with the media’s help
Though as I said pre-Budget…I can’t in a long time remember a Budget that ever really helped a Govt in trouble…and in their present worried state the largely greedy ungrateful il-informed Oz public would be impossible to please anyway !
When earners of more than $100.000 p.a think they are battlers there is not much help in sight.
As for Gillard…who knows ,,,but it seems her pronlems are terminal
!Oh but I forgot…there is always July 1st…a day of wonders when all will come good
by deblonay on May 24, 2012 at 2:19 pm
Sorry not combat combet stupid autocorrect
by guytaur on May 24, 2012 at 2:20 pm
Arms can act as the doorway to the body and the self. When they are crossed, they form a closed defensive shield, blocking out the outside world. Shields act in two ways: one is to block incoming attacks and the other is a place behind which the person can hide and perhaps not be noticed. Crossed arms may thus indicate anxiety which is either driven by a lack of trust in the other person or an internal discomfort and sense of vulnerability (that may, for example, be rooted in childhood trauma).
by my say on May 24, 2012 at 2:20 pm
William
While I am sure that Mr Kelly is a popular local member, it should be noted that the Liberals klutzed the selection process last time.
This time they already have Mr Hendy in place. He is a much superior candidate to the last one. A question of particular interest is whether the Nationals will run a candidate against Mr Hendy.
Mr Whan was a highly popular local member but that did not save him in the recent NSW rout.
We did pre-polling in Cooma and we did HTVC in Bredbo. Cooma felt about evens but in Bredbo we were in hostile territory. Most of the voters were polite but some were hostile and a couple were overtly aggressive.
I would add that there is a leavening of tree changers in the electorate with a lot of ex-Canberra retiree sea changers living along the coast. These would have had a marked impact on what used to be solidly rural dairying, timber and fishing industrial base. Tourism has been hit hard in places like Merimbula. We have had no trouble getting huge discounts for accommodation for coast stays.
We thought that the tree-changers have added a Greens tinge to some of the remote township votes.
by Boerwar on May 24, 2012 at 2:20 pm
I didn’t know all of Mike Kelly’s history. Even more impressed with him now.
Also, William, I believe it’s Peter Hendy, not David Hendy who is the Liberal candidate for the next election
by spur212 on May 24, 2012 at 2:21 pm
I see what they’re up to. Every question they’ve asked so far has included the word ‘trust’. I guess you could call that a theme. They’re also trying to create the impression that the PM is avoiding answering questions. They’re right inasmuch as she’s avoiding gotchas. I suppose they’ll get as many of their team as possible to repeat the “how can you be trusted” mantra. And then they’ll call an SSO and blather about it some more.
by Aguirre on May 24, 2012 at 2:22 pm
I wonder how many times paople have writren BUDGET BOUNCES ARE AN URBAN MYTH
by my say on May 24, 2012 at 2:22 pm
WorkChoice bogeyman time.
by guytaur on May 24, 2012 at 2:22 pm
Really, this QT business is a farce, always has been.
Turned the TV off. Not listening anymore.
by feeney on May 24, 2012 at 2:25 pm
My say, you want bounce. i give you bounce:
http://www.thefinnigans.blogspot.com.au/
by The Finnigans on May 24, 2012 at 2:26 pm
Shorten at full blast!
by BK on May 24, 2012 at 2:26 pm
Puneface!
by BK on May 24, 2012 at 2:27 pm
ooopp, may say solly, this is the bounce:
http://rlv.zcache.com/lets_bounce_dolphin_bouncing_ball_poster-r75ae0a4ede3742798a02ae19db8ce4c3_igl_400.jpg
by The Finnigans on May 24, 2012 at 2:27 pm
Pruneface!
by BK on May 24, 2012 at 2:27 pm
This simpleton is on the coalition frontbench?
by Henry on May 24, 2012 at 2:28 pm
Bang – new oops member, new “trust” question.
by Aguirre on May 24, 2012 at 2:28 pm
Well done Julia!!
by BK on May 24, 2012 at 2:29 pm
Quite so, Spur. Corrected.
by William Bowe on May 24, 2012 at 2:30 pm
Brilliant answer PM!!
Bang.
by Henry on May 24, 2012 at 2:30 pm
Julia mocks the oppo’s SSOs. ”
Bring on your sso, then I can get another 25 mins of work done a day.
LOL
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on May 24, 2012 at 2:30 pm