Morgan face-to-face: 58-42 to Coalition; Seat of the week: Eden-Monaro
The latest Morgan face-to-face poll, conducted last week from a sample of 893, shows a slight improvement for Labor, up 1.5% to 32% on the primary vote with the Coalition down half a point to 45.5% and the Greens down 1.5% to 10.5%. This translates into a one point improvement on the respondent-allocated two-party preferred measure, from 59-48 to 58-42, and a half-point improvement on the previous election method, down from 55.5-44.5 to 55-45.
UPDATE (28/5/12): Essential Research has Labor losing one of the points on two-party preferred it clawed back over previous weeks, the result now at 57-43. Primary votes are 50% for the Coalition (up one), 33% for Labor (steady) and 10% for the Greens (steady). Other questions gauged views on the parties’ respective “attributes”, with all negative responses for Labor (chiefly “divided” and “will promise anything to win votes”) rating higher than all positives, and the Liberal Party doing rather better, rating well for “moderate” and “understands the problems facing Australia”. Bewilderingly, only slightly more respondents (35%) were willing to rate the state of the economy as “good” than “bad” (29%), with 33% opting for neither, although 43% rated the position of their household satisfactory against 28% unsatisfactory.
In today’s installment of Seat of the Week, it’s everybody’s favourite:
Seat of the week: Eden-Monaro
Taking in the south-eastern corner of New South Wales, including Queanbeyan, Cooma, Tumut and the coast from Batemans Bay south to Eden and the Victorian border, Eden-Monaro is renowned throughout the land as the seat that goes with the party who wins the election. Until 2007 its record as a bellwether was in fact surpassed by Macarthur, which had gone with the winning party at every election since its creation in 1949, but while Eden-Monaro stayed true to form by being among the seven New South Wales seats to switch to Labor with the election of the Rudd government, Liberal member Pat Farmer held on in Macarthur. The seat bucked the statewide trend in 2010 by recording a 2.0% swing to Labor, in what was very likely a vote of confidence in the popular local member, Mike Kelly.
Perhaps explaining its bellwether status, Eden-Monaro offers something of a microcosm of the state at large, if not the entire country. It incorporates suburban Queanbeyan, rural centres Cooma and Bega, coastal towns Eden and Narooma, and agricultural areas sprinkled with small towns. Labor’s strongest area is the electorate is the Canberra satellite town of Queanbeyan, excluding its Liberal-leaning outer suburb of Jerrabomberra. The coastal areas, which swung particularly heavily to Labor in 2007, can be divided between a finely balanced centre and areas of Liberal strength at the northern and southern extremities, respectively around Batemans Bay and Merimbula. The smaller inland towns are solidly conservative, but Cooma is highly marginal. The area covered by the electorate has been remarkably little changed over the years: it has been locked into the state’s south-eastern corner since federation, and its geographic size has remained fairly consistent as increases in the size of parliament cancelled out the effects of relative population decline. Outside of the interruption from 2007 and 2010, when it expanded westwards to Tumut and Tumbarumba, its boundaries since 1998 have been almost identical to those it had before 1913.
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Categories: Federal Election 2013, Federal Politics 2010-
Listen to AM. George Brandis SC comes unstuck in estimates. Gets DPP to state no signed witness statements in FWA report and it is not the basis for any legal evidence.
by guytaur on May 25, 2012 at 7:22 am
Thomson treated ‘worse than Ivan Milat’ – http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/thomson-treated-worse-than-ivan-milat-20120524-1z7zw.html – Milat only faced one Investigation. #Thomson now faces 9 plus 4y of FWA
by The Finnigans on May 25, 2012 at 7:23 am
http://news.brisbanetimes.com.au/breaking-news-national/abbott-calls-for-thomsons-resignation-20120524-1z63d.html
“At a human level I have a great deal of sympathy for the member for Dobell,” Mr Abbott said.
Call me into sick from work please.
“”We have no sympathy, though, for a government and for a prime minister who have put him in this position by insisting that he remain in the parliament when the honourable course of action for him would be to resign.”"
Ahh this has been entirely about the Fall of the Goverment.
by zoidlord on May 25, 2012 at 7:25 am
Good morning all.
Another graveyard shift of unhingement and despairment from Abbott’s Bovver Boys. It is fun to watch.
I wonder how much of this newfound concern for Thomson, esp on the coalition side, is emerging because they can sense a public disquiet and unease about the attacks on him. Much like the women at yesterday’s morning tea were expressing.
by confessions on May 25, 2012 at 7:25 am
This is well worth reading. It does have some applicability here.
http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/2012/05/24/fairness-isnt-inconsistent-with-growth-its-essential-to-it-romney-epitomizes-the-unfairness-of-the-american-economy-in-this-new-gilded-age/
We have Clive Palmer, they have Donald Trump.
http://videocafe.crooksandliars.com/david/trump-i-would-be-best-choice-all-romneys-vp
Here’s justice for you!
http://www.democraticunderground.com/101730578
by BK on May 25, 2012 at 7:26 am
Barrie Cassidy Drum article on Learning lessons from the past: http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-05-25/cassidy-alarm-bells-are-ringing/4031494
by Space Kidette on May 25, 2012 at 7:27 am
Okay, now I’m convinced their focus groups are showing this public disquiet.
Interesting that the women yesterday all looped Abbott in with the media, even though Abbott has largely left the attacks on Thomson to others such as Pyne and Brandis.
His reputation precedes him.
by confessions on May 25, 2012 at 7:28 am
bk
[And also Ron Tandberg.
http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/opinion/cartoons/ron-tandberg-20090910-fixc.html
Haven’t they always misled parliament, says the woman in the cartoon reminded me of Howard accused of misleading parliament when he did a Downer and forgot he had met with Sir Cedric Honan.
[And a shocker from David Rowe to finish.
http://www.afr.com/p/home/cartoon_gallery_david_rowe_1g8WHy9urgOIQrWQ0IrkdO
Looks like Rudd in the cartoon on the sideline, is Rowe reminding us of Abbott and Howard and the MSM pursuit of Rudd over scores.
by castle on May 25, 2012 at 7:28 am
phew, i am glad that i missed the two painful pavlovian doggys last night. No wonder i smell the remnant stench of their shits still floating around this morning.
by The Finnigans on May 25, 2012 at 7:30 am
fess
That is exactly the reason. I think too late. I think the crocodile tears are going to be seen for what they are. Helped along by the Ivan Milat comparison. Voters are not stupid they know this is happening due to a craving for power by one T Abbott.
Abbott’s behaviour every day confirms that famous remark by Windsor about Abbott selling his arse. I thank whatever deities of chance, fate that gave us sane cross bench members that chose Gillard over Abbott. I think the country has been spared some real years of horror.
If you can do listen to AM. On early AM they had George Brandis SC coming unstuck in estimates on the FWA report.
by guytaur on May 25, 2012 at 7:31 am
For those shills arguing that Labor is hypocritically prejudging Thomson by casting him aside from the party while insisting that he not be prejudged in the accusations, Andrew Elder gives the best answer
I’d agree with JohD’s analysis. On the published info (2UE?, Fairfax?) the manual card imprint misspelling Thomson’s name with a “P” is a dead giveaway. The driving licence ID is just as suspect since the card couldn’t have been issued before 2009 and this is supposed to be about a transaction from 2005.
My best guess is that Thomson may not be as completely clean as we’d like, albeit the prostitutes stuff is unlikely. It seems he might once have been a Williamson ally and or probably got Labor endorsement through him and maybe agreeing not to delve too closely into HSU affairs.
by Gorgeous Dunny on May 25, 2012 at 7:32 am
Abbott’s faux concern for Thomson this morning must rank as the most disingenuous statement I have EVER heard!
This man is dangerous.
by BK on May 25, 2012 at 7:33 am
Morning bludgers
Thanks BK and others for all the links this morning. Appreciate it.
Just heard excerpt of the creep on radio. He reckons it is Gillard”s fault re Thomson. She should allow Thomson to step down from parliament rather than cling to his vote. Wtf! This man truly disgusts me
by victoria on May 25, 2012 at 7:34 am
Boss of Myer warns foreign investors starting to shun Aust as a place to invest Vs D&B said it is the safest place to invest. You decide.
by The Finnigans on May 25, 2012 at 7:37 am
guytaur:
Thanks, will try to catch AM later.
I still want to know how it was that Mary Jo Hokey Pokey’s charges were kept out of the media at a time when the Senate numbers were finely balanced.
by confessions on May 25, 2012 at 7:37 am
BK –
you are right!
PJK – resident nutter
Albo – megalomaniac
imo now completely unhinged by his lust for power
by Lyne Lady on May 25, 2012 at 7:38 am
News24 just showed Albo pointing out Abbot’s resign statements could have criminal sanctions.
by guytaur on May 25, 2012 at 7:39 am
Morning. More grim commentary from Grattan today.
by triton on May 25, 2012 at 7:40 am
What Abbott and Hcokey would bring to Australia with their like policies.
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/world-business/britains-recession-deeper-than-expected-20120525-1z8bg.html#ixzz1vpFxlFOJ
The libs solution to the GFC to cut spending would see unemployment increase, a business analyst said yesterday that if unemployment got to 7% house prices would drop by 10% or more, triggering a further wave of uncertainty, unemployemnt, falling house prices and recession.
by castle on May 25, 2012 at 7:43 am
Not as dangerous as investing in Myer though!
This guy represents the worst of the management style that brings companies down.
by BK on May 25, 2012 at 7:43 am
The focus group obviously now telling Abbott that the “lynching mob” tag is starting to stick. Hence his phoney concern for #Thomson welfare
by The Finnigans on May 25, 2012 at 7:44 am
BK, who wants to invest in Myer now. Its business model plus the likes of Harvey Norman, DJ etc, are fucked.
by The Finnigans on May 25, 2012 at 7:46 am
Mike Smith (visiting journo doing what the papers say on ABC Breakfast TV) finally makes the connection between an escort blowing the whistle on a client.
He says messages like this (from the escort agency’s own web site)…
… won’t be worth two-bob if she does.
I’d say the readiness of madams (or whatever) to supply Master Card dockets to grubs from 2UE has already started the rot.
The Coalition’s desperation to get a result by July 1 is now palpable. I wouldn’t expect them to leave off at this stage.
But really, what can they achieve by it except keep ahead in the polls? Polls aren’t elections.
They can’t throw Thomson out of parliament, and Pynes “brief” to the Privileges Committee (controlled by Labor) practically begs for a long, involved investigation that could take months.
And then what? They can’t remove Thomson from parliament, and may not even censure him.
I think Thomson has played this pretty well. His statement the other day and his presser yesterday were about the best performances he could give. Not too glib, but with the right amount of emotion.
I’m not saying he was faking these appearances. What I’m saying is that they show he’s prepared to fight (which is more than some of his erstwhile colleagues are prepared to do, on his behalf, unfortunately).
It was a good move to go after ACA, in public, because now even Kate McCylmont is writing half-sympathetic articles about him and his situation. She missed getting an interview with a hooker and so is now dissing 9′s (claimed to be successful) efforts to do the same thing, especially with the “payment” angle being so prominent.
True, there are some hard-heads – mostly shock-jocks and journos at The Australian – who want to keep the heat on Thomson, but I think the Thomson statement and presser have let some air out of the bubble and lowered the pressure.
When Kelty said the other day that Labor should “Tell the truth” he didn’t mean they’d been lying. He meant that they had been squibbing telling the full story. They had been almost ashamed to espouse Labor values when announcing policies and in their general dealings with the public. At its most basic level they had fallen back on spin rather than confront issues head-on.
If nothing else, Craig Thomson has taken Kelty’s advice and has confronted the issues head-on. He wishes he’d done it before. It’s at least in the open now.
Thomson has a voice, a wife, a kid, a house, a heart that can be broken. Whatever he’s done (or not done) in the past, he’s a human being with feelings, feelings that might crack and lead to a tragedy. Who’s going to call his bluff? Who’s going to take the risk that he might step over the precipice into self-harm? A few dead-heads, for sure, but maybe now the real high pressure’s off a little bit.
The sole reason this is a priority at the moment is the imminence of July 1 when so many new government measures come into force. In one respect it doesn’t matter that they haven’t started. They’re still gazetted legislation that has to be repealed, even now.
But after July 1 they’ll be enforced. Money will be paid by high carbon emitters and will either have to be refunded or otherwise accounted for by an Abbott government, if it comes into being. Money will have been paid out by the government. Will Abbott seek reimbursement?
Assuming a simple handover, after a few months the full bureaucracy will have been assembled and will be working in one way or another. A whole system will be functioning. Ministers will need to settle into their new jobs. That will all be harder to just pull apart with a simple bill saying “The Carbon Tax is repealed.” Committees, consultations, meetings, draftings and so on will take months. If nothing else, the Senate will see to that.
There’ll have to be a wind-down, stakeholders will have to be consulted and accommodated. Abbott’s boast that he will repeal the Carbon Tax “in the first 30 days” will look increasingly hollow. And he’ll have the problem of a hung parliament to contend with. Will he press on, or will he call an election? More delay and uncertainty.
And that’s if the Senate agrees to grease the wheels. If they obstruct Abbott’s repeal legislation, we’re in for a year, maybe two, of political chaos. At the moment the Australian people think they want this: anything to get rid of the Carbon Tax. But do they really? Abbott will have fought his way to Moscow, only to find scorched earth. Then he’ll have to keep his motley crew together for the retreat through the snow. Can he do it? With no policies, merely the whiff of a few ideas?
On the other hand, assuming there is no handover, as Gillard’s reforms kick in, and we find the Earth hasn’t stopped turning, Labor will improve in the polls. Advertising – of the NBN, the Carbon Tax, health issues and many more… all gazetted law that can justifiably be advertised to its beneficiaries – will improve things, perhaps to the point where Labor gets close enough to the Coalition in the polls to make a win in a snap election a definite possibility. Labor doesn’t have to be ahead. It just needs to be a plausible threat. This is when the Coalition starts to get nervous.
Abbott thinks he’s putting the government under pressure now. He won’t know what pressure’s like in six months if the government survives… pressure on himself.
by Bushfire Bill on May 25, 2012 at 7:48 am
BK,
Here is the test for the Myer BS. Hop on their website and shop online. Under home decore they have about twenty variations of candles to buy and not much else. Of the thousands of items they carry there is three fifths of bugger all on there.
Then tell me why people don’t want to invest in Myer.
by Space Kidette on May 25, 2012 at 7:49 am
I have a question for the megalomaniac Abbott.
“By how much will prices fall, and by what mechanism, when you repeal the carbon tax and remove the attached reimbursement payments to the public?”
by BK on May 25, 2012 at 7:53 am
Yes, I observed last night that there was more than a tinge of defensiveness in her tweets about ACA.
The other point to make about Thomson defending himself is his own tweets, some of which took McClymont and others to task for writing stuff about him but failing to contact him for verification or for his side of the story.
by confessions on May 25, 2012 at 7:58 am
I cant see a handover to abbott,
1- abbot will not get the numbers in an hung parliament
the most numbers he can get is 73
2-labor with the independents will have control of the house
by Meguire Bob on May 25, 2012 at 7:58 am
On the Senate. Have no doubt the Greens will oppose any moves to repeal the Carbon Price and associated legislation. The Greens have a mandate that is crystal clear and would betray their voters if they caved. Caving on repealing the carbon legislation and would mean the end of the Greens. They are not stupid they will not do it. Given that reality I fully expect that IF Abbott did become Prime Minister it would be up to Labor to decide if the Carbon package would stay or go. I do not see Labor undoing this reform in any way.
by guytaur on May 25, 2012 at 8:01 am
Abbott has descended this morning to new depths. Words fail me.
by BK on May 25, 2012 at 8:01 am
Juest read the Cassidy piece. Left this comment (for what it’s worth):
by Bushfire Bill on May 25, 2012 at 8:04 am
MB
Katter could change his vote over this. Katter is passionate about those people he knows who have committed suicide. He would be livid at people hounding anyone to such a place. So if Abbott succeeds and for whatever reason Thomson leaves Parliament Katters vote could replace it. Of course if Thomson does not leave Katters vote could make the government more secure than it is now.
by guytaur on May 25, 2012 at 8:04 am
Abbott’s comments this morning are sickening. Thomson is on the cross benches. How can Gillard demand he leave Parliament.
by victoria on May 25, 2012 at 8:06 am
Abbott is concerned for #Thomson welfare by saying he resigns from the Parliament. WTF. Just like here’s the rope, go and hang yourself
by The Finnigans on May 25, 2012 at 8:07 am
@Victoria/1031,
It’s all about the fall of the Goverment.
Everything that Thompson is – is a sideshow.
by zoidlord on May 25, 2012 at 8:10 am
As you know the online media sites present an article by having a headline then a precis on their homepage. Clicking on the headline bring up the full article. Quite often the full article is quite different to what the headline or precis says. Such was the case this morning when I read the Age homepage saying that the ["government compares him to Milat"]. It was only when I read the article that I realised that they didn’t think he was a mass murderer.
http://www.theage.com.au/
by Haydn on May 25, 2012 at 8:11 am
victoria:
It’s the last throw of the dice. No amount of fury and spurious attacks on his integrity have thrown up any reason why he should resign his seat. The only thing left to do is cry crocodile tears in the hope he decides to go of his own volition.
Meanwhile, 12 sitting days left and counting down.
by confessions on May 25, 2012 at 8:11 am
n situation for anybody at the end of the day.
801
Andrew Elder Posted Thursday, May 24, 2012 at 10:58 pm | Permalink
Dee, the Coalition can dish it out but can’t cop it back.
Any notion of “hey’re all the same” throws the focus back on to policy, in which case Coalition are done for. Their strategy is both to push as hard as they can and to take the moral high ground, which is self-defeating and unsustainable unless they break through soon (which they won’t).
Sorry if you find this confusing. ANDREW ELDER POSTED
Wow, a post from liviving legend. , i went to bed to early
by my say on May 25, 2012 at 8:13 am
zoidlord
Of course it is. But how can Abbott with a straight face that Thomson should leave the parliament, and that Gillard should demand it from him. It is beyond ridiculous. I will be interested to know more about the laws regarding this. Albo has been alluding to it already.
by victoria on May 25, 2012 at 8:13 am
This is a worry.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2149193/Greece-WILL-leave-eurozone-January-1-2013-Citigroup-boss-predicts-exit-date-warns-massive-wave-contagion-Europe.html
by guytaur on May 25, 2012 at 8:13 am
Abbott has really exposed himself by suggesting if #Thomson resigns that would the best for him & family. Best like jobless? Wangker
by The Finnigans on May 25, 2012 at 8:17 am
I detest Abbott with a passion; but again he has hit a nerve with this – lets be honest if Labor had a majority Thomson would have been out ages ago. Channel 9 has images of Gillard with Abbott pointing this out – the general punter agrees.
Abbott has smart people giving him advice i detest him
by scoutdog on May 25, 2012 at 8:17 am
confessions
Imo Mirabella should be booted out of parliament for her alleged conduct re her former partner. If the case against her by the children of the gentleman, is even half accurate, Mirabella should hang her head in shame. On the other hand, Thomson procuring the services of an escort, not so much. In fact, my OH reckons most politicians would have to resign if using escorts was part of the criteria for invalid service as a pollie!!
by victoria on May 25, 2012 at 8:17 am
I’m not falling for that. It’s a trick statement. Abbott has no human level.
It might be worth having a go at that approach. Abbott has never shown sympathy for anyone unless it has suited his political purposes to do so. He has great difficulty staying bipartisan in situations where that is required. And if he has no sympathy he cannot be trusted to keep the country’s best interests at heart.
You can tie that in with his faux appearances at small businesses to rail about carbon pricing. Every time he does one of those somebody from the ALP ought to come out complaining about Abbott preying on small business to suit his amibitions.
“If he truly cared he would…” ought to be an ALP mantra. He’s congenitally incapabable of expressing real sympathy (he may have it, I suppose, but he never shows it), and would be very uncomfortable being put in situations where it was expected or demanded of him.
by Aguirre on May 25, 2012 at 8:18 am
At the end of the day:
I’ve long argued that Abbott (indeed most of today’s Liberal party) is no conservative. He and most of his colleagues have no real regard for our institutions, otherwise they’d never have come out with this nonsense about tainted votes and accepting the vote on bills of representatives we have elected into parliament.
Abbott and his puppet masters are desperate, unhingingly desperate. It makes me wonder what crisis they will engineer when the Thomson caravan eventually moves on. What lengths are they prepared to go to? It’s a scary thought in many ways.
by confessions on May 25, 2012 at 8:18 am
scoutdog
Thomson would not have been out ages ago. No one would even know who thomson was
by victoria on May 25, 2012 at 8:18 am
Just read Grattan’s column today. She seems to be saying Labor could go to the polls early so that Abbott will be left with a hostile senate. Next comes the brilliant bit from the master tactician. The ALP should then leave the hostile senate in place by not giving Abbott a double dissolution trigger! In other words, give him a hostile senate that agrees with him. It really does my head in when I see stuff like this!
by Gorilla on May 25, 2012 at 8:20 am
(e Posted Friday, May 25, 2012 at 7:49 am | Permalink
BK,
Here is the test for the Myer BS. Hop on their website and shop online. Under home decore they have about twenty variations of candles to buy and not much else. Of the thousands of items they carry there is three fifths of bugger all on there.)
You ll may remembr our myer ( half) burned to te ground,”’in 2007 its taken them to now to start rebuilding.’
by my say on May 25, 2012 at 8:20 am
victoria:
Your OH is right; consider all the brothels in Canberra….
by confessions on May 25, 2012 at 8:20 am
Finance guy on News 24 Breakfast saying in polite voice Myer Boss full of it on investment.
by guytaur on May 25, 2012 at 8:20 am
confessions
I mentioned that last night. What next? That is why i have believe that if it can be established that the coalition were involved in the Slipper set up, they will be stopped in their tracks.
by victoria on May 25, 2012 at 8:20 am