Morgan face-to-face: 58-42 to Coalition; Seat of the week: Eden-Monaro
The latest Morgan face-to-face poll, conducted last week from a sample of 893, shows a slight improvement for Labor, up 1.5% to 32% on the primary vote with the Coalition down half a point to 45.5% and the Greens down 1.5% to 10.5%. This translates into a one point improvement on the respondent-allocated two-party preferred measure, from 59-48 to 58-42, and a half-point improvement on the previous election method, down from 55.5-44.5 to 55-45.
UPDATE (28/5/12): Essential Research has Labor losing one of the points on two-party preferred it clawed back over previous weeks, the result now at 57-43. Primary votes are 50% for the Coalition (up one), 33% for Labor (steady) and 10% for the Greens (steady). Other questions gauged views on the parties’ respective “attributes”, with all negative responses for Labor (chiefly “divided” and “will promise anything to win votes”) rating higher than all positives, and the Liberal Party doing rather better, rating well for “moderate” and “understands the problems facing Australia”. Bewilderingly, only slightly more respondents (35%) were willing to rate the state of the economy as “good” than “bad” (29%), with 33% opting for neither, although 43% rated the position of their household satisfactory against 28% unsatisfactory.
In today’s installment of Seat of the Week, it’s everybody’s favourite:
Seat of the week: Eden-Monaro
Taking in the south-eastern corner of New South Wales, including Queanbeyan, Cooma, Tumut and the coast from Batemans Bay south to Eden and the Victorian border, Eden-Monaro is renowned throughout the land as the seat that goes with the party who wins the election. Until 2007 its record as a bellwether was in fact surpassed by Macarthur, which had gone with the winning party at every election since its creation in 1949, but while Eden-Monaro stayed true to form by being among the seven New South Wales seats to switch to Labor with the election of the Rudd government, Liberal member Pat Farmer held on in Macarthur. The seat bucked the statewide trend in 2010 by recording a 2.0% swing to Labor, in what was very likely a vote of confidence in the popular local member, Mike Kelly.
Perhaps explaining its bellwether status, Eden-Monaro offers something of a microcosm of the state at large, if not the entire country. It incorporates suburban Queanbeyan, rural centres Cooma and Bega, coastal towns Eden and Narooma, and agricultural areas sprinkled with small towns. Labor’s strongest area is the electorate is the Canberra satellite town of Queanbeyan, excluding its Liberal-leaning outer suburb of Jerrabomberra. The coastal areas, which swung particularly heavily to Labor in 2007, can be divided between a finely balanced centre and areas of Liberal strength at the northern and southern extremities, respectively around Batemans Bay and Merimbula. The smaller inland towns are solidly conservative, but Cooma is highly marginal. The area covered by the electorate has been remarkably little changed over the years: it has been locked into the state’s south-eastern corner since federation, and its geographic size has remained fairly consistent as increases in the size of parliament cancelled out the effects of relative population decline. Outside of the interruption from 2007 and 2010, when it expanded westwards to Tumut and Tumbarumba, its boundaries since 1998 have been almost identical to those it had before 1913.
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Categories: Federal Election 2013, Federal Politics 2010-
sounds nasty Victoria, I hope all works ok in the end – it sure can be dangerous out there
by womble on May 25, 2012 at 9:29 am
But surprisingly, it was Wilkie in his statement that brought this crimes act to the fore.
Why the government hadn’t used this to shut Rabbott down, one can only ponder.
by Dee on May 25, 2012 at 9:31 am
victoria – get you or your son to start the claims process on the damage to the car as asap.
If the injuries dont settle down quickly get in touch with the TAC asap as to your son’s rights. It is so much easier if things are done early
http://www.tac.vic.gov.au/jsp/corporate/homepage/home.jsp
by shellbell on May 25, 2012 at 9:31 am
Things are bad when Labor MPs are welcoming the Thomson saga as a distraction from the Carbon Tax:
http://blogs.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/simonbenson/index.php/dailytelegraph/comments/comedy_of_errors_ends_in_tears_for_the_believers#.T766whGXoFt.twitter
by Thornleigh Labor Man on May 25, 2012 at 9:31 am
Scout dog,
When u quote some one put brackets { } before and ofter their quote
Then we know what they said,
Then your reply,
hope this helps
by my say on May 25, 2012 at 9:32 am
Scout dog,
When u quote some one put brackets { } before and ofter their quote
Then we know what they said,
Then your reply,
hope this helps……..
by my say on May 25, 2012 at 9:32 am
On the issue of invoking the Crimes Act in relation to coercion of a member of parliament:
Could any person, not necessarily in parliament, make a complaint to police or launch legal proceedings?
by citizen on May 25, 2012 at 9:33 am
@TLM/1153
2 Words
News.com.au and Dailytelegraph.
by zoidlord on May 25, 2012 at 9:33 am
No, it’s not 2GB it’s ABC Local radio
http://the-abc-has-gone-to-hell.tumblr.com/post/23695663860/no-its-not-2gb-its-abc-local-radio
by TAHGTH on May 25, 2012 at 9:33 am
Scout dog
Good choice with Internode. TPG iinet etc are better than the majors. Except if coverage in country areas then of course pay premium and go with Telstra.
I am an Apple guy because i hate the Windows software platform
Yep Guytaur happy with Internode – reckon we will update to Apple when we can afford to looks simpler!
by scoutdog on May 25, 2012 at 9:34 am
Scoutdog put the quote in [ ]
by MsAdventure on May 25, 2012 at 9:35 am
The Liberals didn’t suspend Mary Jo Fisher because committing assault is perfectly acceptable behaviour in the Liberal party.
by Von Kirsdarke on May 25, 2012 at 9:35 am
Yes to question one.
I am a bit hazy on two – private prosecutions are still allowed but I think you need the permission of the DPP to continue the prosecution once it has been commenced which is rarely forthcoming
by shellbell on May 25, 2012 at 9:36 am
{Dee Posted Friday, May 25, 2012 at 9:31 am | Permalink
But surprisingly, it was Wilkie in his statement that brought this crimes act to the fore. Why the government hadn’t used this to shut Rabbott down, one can only ponder.}
Yes my oh and i have talked about this , i said the people like the ones that went to canberra
Ect, would see it differently, ‘
But i think the tide is turning people may just want peace, in their brain, after all no matter what others say, we have ne er seen any thing like this.
by my say on May 25, 2012 at 9:37 am
Deee how is your husband doing
by my say on May 25, 2012 at 9:38 am
victoria,
Hoping all is good victoria. The good news is he is coming home. Sending big hugs.
by Space Kidette on May 25, 2012 at 9:38 am
The Mary Jo Fisher situation is all very sad imo
Mental illness should never be treated lightly
by womble on May 25, 2012 at 9:38 am
I don’t think the big push to target Thomson at the moment has much to do with 1 July.
Instead I think it has to do with Slipper/Ashby. The Libs seem to be avoiding the Slipper matter like the plague at the moment.
Jessica Wright, I suspect, has no idea who provided her the Pyne e-mail exchange and has no idea if there is anymore to come from the source.
It was a warning to Pyne. Him being unavailable for a period of time only to re-emerge after Brandis had challenged her on MTP, and she had nothing, is significant.
Pyne has something to hide and possibly doesn’t know the ‘trigger’ that may lead to the source dumping more.
The impending court action on Slipper/Ashby is most likely, I think, to be the danger point that Rabbots ‘brains trust’ are focused on.
by CTar1 on May 25, 2012 at 9:39 am
[Things are bad when Labor MPs are welcoming the Thomson saga as a distraction from the Carbon Tax:] – thanks my say
Thornleigh man – that is codswalloop and you know it – 1 it is not a tax and 2 I have not heard the Libs talk about nything but Thomson, talk the economy down and
OFFER NO ALTERNATIVES but the sky is going to fall in with Carbon Pricing – the direct action socialist alternative that Abbott originally offered has not been discussed – do agree with his alternative or like him just make negative statements based not based on facts thinking that you are clever and people might actually listen – again:
Do you agree with Abbotts direct action socialist alternative and like Hockey do you think the NDIS is a bad idea – something positive instead of the continual negative sound grabs would be good!
by scoutdog on May 25, 2012 at 9:40 am
Talki g of brackets, i now dont get italics with the tablet no matter which brackets i use.
by my say on May 25, 2012 at 9:41 am
My Say for quotes use the [ ] in lower case, do not use the shift key like this { }
by MsAdventure on May 25, 2012 at 9:41 am
I’d think that
and Rabble are on shaky ground with this one:
Since they are persistently calling for his vote to be negated, not counted, not accepted, AND they are doing so in Parliament.
Don’t know what the procedure would be for this to be investigated? Referral to the AFP? Or since it may actually be a pretty simple case, just the AG (Roxon) to decide if its worth prosecuting??
Would love to see someone like Albo fly that kite, get a predictable “bring it on” response from
, and then actually bring it on and get a court ruling on the matter.
How many Fibs would actually fit in the Dock??
by imacca on May 25, 2012 at 9:41 am
In reality, what has changed?
Labor’s government – born in difficult conditions, coming to maturity through difficult conditions is still there, an objectively, is actually doing quite well – when it can actually get to getting things done.
DA on Newsradio, when asked what he thought about the “survival” of the government reputedly told a group of businessmen, “Anywhere between 15 days and 15 months.”
I think we have heard the likely demise of the government from Costello’s “election before Christmas” (2010) to some nasty piece in the AFR months and months ago, saying how “dejected” and “dispirited” Labor looked on parliament. So much for this “observation”.
Again, what’s new?
DA also threw in the word “odour” about the government, and when it all boils down to it, this is what it is all about. Public perception. At the moment, Labor is not winning this one, but there is not much they can do about it.
Sex and salaciousness sells and so-called guilt by so-called association has never stopped the tabloid press.
What puzzles me is the naive belief that there would be some regeneration of government with the conservatives in power.
Do the conservatives really believe that having trashed the role of opposition that somehow, having got the bat back again, that Labor will come and play using the old rules?
They are fools if they believe this.
Just as some of the Oz electorate are being fooled that “nice” Mr Abbott will reinstate the so-called Howard golden era.
By the way, I don’t think the arrival and departure of July 1 will make any difference to anything.
The telling time will be the period September to December.
Labor must get some clear air – Abbbot know this, the media knows this as does Labor.
That is why the kitchen sink is being thrown at the moment
by Tricot on May 25, 2012 at 9:41 am
But, you forget that Thomson named Simon Benson as one of his favourite journos.
It’s very easy to dismiss everyone from News Ltd as part of the supposed conspiracy against the saintly Julia.
by Thornleigh Labor Man on May 25, 2012 at 9:42 am
No headline/article from NT News for a while.
Here is an oldie but a goodie.
http://www.ntnews.com.au/article/2011/02/12/212161_ntnews.html
by shellbell on May 25, 2012 at 9:43 am
I am pondering aloud and welcome thoughts. Has Abbott got blinders on to the point that he has forgotten that Thomson is now legally and Independent member of Parliament. So he thinks carping at the Prime Minister means Thomson will resign. The statements Abbott is making do make sense if Thomson was still a member of the Labor party. They do not make sense about an Independent Member of Parliament. Is it that simple?
by guytaur on May 25, 2012 at 9:43 am
imacca,
I wondered what intimidation might be in law in relation to this matter.
by Space Kidette on May 25, 2012 at 9:43 am
victoria
So sorry to hear about your son (and the injured lady). It’s the “collateral damage” to surrounding vehicles that is such a problem in bad weather.
Because of the weather forecast I have just cancelled two appointments for today. I’ve had quite enough of driving through torrential rain, during the summer. And out our way there are a lot more B-doubles than just a few years ago. Can be scary in heavy rain as their tyres throw up blinding spray.
by lizzie on May 25, 2012 at 9:44 am
by Space Kidette on May 25, 2012 at 9:44 am
For ltep and the others who are sure Thomson is guilty (murphy is a Sydney lawyer, I believe).
by lizzie on May 25, 2012 at 9:49 am
And no he hasn’t.
by Space Kidette on May 25, 2012 at 9:49 am
Correct.
Would be interesting to find out. And equally interesting to see how the Libs would behave as far as their members staying in the House with criminal charges pending.
My belief is that if the law applies ANYWHERE, and due process applies ANYWHERE, it should be in Parliament most of all.
by imacca on May 25, 2012 at 9:49 am
No, I haven’t fess. I gave Gov Reports up after I decided retirement really was for me. But I could guess what’s in it. The Latest News for Seniors – like what’s happening in online health-services delivery, what’s happened in Emergency Services Delivery (getting the first planes off the ground so incredibly quickly after the Christchurch quake & Japanese Tsunami) – are dreams come true for me and the students I conned into taking the first giant leaps into designing the prototypes of what internet & convergence could offer.
My last Reports were the Karpin (management ed for the Asian century) & implementation of the Australian Standards – so very exhausting, given I (an incompetent computer jinx with a death wish) offered the relevant units online, but huge fun supervising students from several countries and such a wide gamut of industries, professions & qualifications. I still have all the Karpin stuff – particularly as its effectiveness has been very obvious since the GFC began.
Teacher/ academic pay might be lousy, considering the qualifications needed and massive work loads in environments in a constant state of change; but no pay could equal the blast of seeing one’s students’ dreams come – not so much “true”, as that what they achieve is so far beyond what they could have envisaged, it’s breathtaking.
by OzPol Tragic on May 25, 2012 at 9:50 am
Are we following the US
http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/conservatives-used-to-care-about-community-what-happened/2012/05/24/gJQAsR8inU_story.html?hpid=z3
by guytaur on May 25, 2012 at 9:51 am
TLM
What about Rudd?
by triton on May 25, 2012 at 9:52 am
Mental illness is horrible, yes, but if a Labor MP was publicly suffering from depression and did something they shouldn’t have, they’d have Pyne up every QT screaming at them that they are unfit to hold office and should be censured from parliament.
I hate it how sympathy and decency in these matters only applies to Liberal MP’s. Everyone in Labor however is free game.
I imagine many Labor MP’s must be suffering in private, imagine being exposed to this sort of stress every sitting day and not being able to escape from it due to the possible collapse of government. None of them will if it means that monster in front of them would win, but the strain on holding on for so long would be terrible.
by Von Kirsdarke on May 25, 2012 at 9:52 am
MsAdventure
and you will get this]
thanks
by scoutdog on May 25, 2012 at 9:52 am
Hmmmm……..
Actually,
and Rabble are trying to incite the PM to reject, negate, whatever on Craig Thomsons vote in Parliament. Wonder if that still works?
by imacca on May 25, 2012 at 9:52 am
Guytaur
It is in Abbott’s mind – he knows that Gillard can’t boot Thomson out of the parliament but the public on the main wouldn’t, so he is playing on that – i.e. it’s her fault he is still there. This is also why he runs the other line about not accepting his “tainted vote” – and his belief he can get through a no-confidence motion if she agrees.
A more independent media would tell it how it is, unfortunately we don’t have that. Which is why I think the situation in Victoria will be an eye-opener – the Herald Sun has gone pretty hard on Failyou, what will they do if Labor go after the Member for Frankston???
Day off today – Ali Moore is filling in for Jon Faine – been going almost 90 minutes and no mention of Thomson
by womble on May 25, 2012 at 9:53 am
I’ve said nothing of the sort. Guilt is a criminal concept and no charges have been made.
by ltep on May 25, 2012 at 9:56 am
My Say
Wonderful!
Small steps, bit wonky & can’t get his back straight but he is doing more & more.
He is the complete optimist & has always had a jovial demeanour even in the face of adversity which has helped immensely.
He always jokes that he leaves worrying up to the expert, which is me of course!
by Dee on May 25, 2012 at 9:56 am
Victoria – Best wishes – hope it all works out for your son etc.
by dave on May 25, 2012 at 9:56 am
i(s bucketing down with rain here in Melbourne. If the truck had hit his car first, I may not be so calm right now. Life is really a lottery)
Understand what your saying, no matter how small the injuries are, it gives one a jolt
Two of mine had close call s in their very late teens,
When i saw the cars was horrified
by my say on May 25, 2012 at 9:57 am
Thanks guys.
Son has appoint with the doc this morning to get checked out. Still thinks he may be able to pay footy tomorrow!
by victoria on May 25, 2012 at 9:57 am
Oops play
by victoria on May 25, 2012 at 9:57 am
Unless the Coalition win a majority in the Senate. Not likely, but on current figures, possible. And if that happened, it’d be likely they’d have a majority for 6 years too.
by ltep on May 25, 2012 at 9:57 am
Don’t worry about Ali Moore. She was on ABC 702 Sydney yesterday afternoon (5.30-6.00, the Journos Forum) putting the boot into Thomson just as enthusiastically as David Marr, Peter Coleman (ex Lib failed politician, now journalist) and Richard Glover.
She also opined that the Carbon Tax was a con, the Budget was a fraud and that the government would be gone before July.
Too much rubbing shoulders with the Bizoids for my liking.
by Bushfire Bill on May 25, 2012 at 9:58 am
imacca
it will for a while
by scoutdog on May 25, 2012 at 9:59 am
My say
I have only spoken to son over phone. He is not home yet, but he was most upset for the woman passenger in the taxi, who received the brunt of the hit by the truck.
by victoria on May 25, 2012 at 10:00 am
Scoutdog,
The text you are quoting enclosed in [] must be on its own, i.e. start the quote on a new line, enclose it in square brackets, and then continue your comment on a new line.
by janice2 on May 25, 2012 at 10:00 am