Morgan face-to-face: 58-42 to Coalition; Seat of the week: Eden-Monaro
The latest Morgan face-to-face poll, conducted last week from a sample of 893, shows a slight improvement for Labor, up 1.5% to 32% on the primary vote with the Coalition down half a point to 45.5% and the Greens down 1.5% to 10.5%. This translates into a one point improvement on the respondent-allocated two-party preferred measure, from 59-48 to 58-42, and a half-point improvement on the previous election method, down from 55.5-44.5 to 55-45.
UPDATE (28/5/12): Essential Research has Labor losing one of the points on two-party preferred it clawed back over previous weeks, the result now at 57-43. Primary votes are 50% for the Coalition (up one), 33% for Labor (steady) and 10% for the Greens (steady). Other questions gauged views on the parties’ respective “attributes”, with all negative responses for Labor (chiefly “divided” and “will promise anything to win votes”) rating higher than all positives, and the Liberal Party doing rather better, rating well for “moderate” and “understands the problems facing Australia”. Bewilderingly, only slightly more respondents (35%) were willing to rate the state of the economy as “good” than “bad” (29%), with 33% opting for neither, although 43% rated the position of their household satisfactory against 28% unsatisfactory.
In today’s installment of Seat of the Week, it’s everybody’s favourite:
Seat of the week: Eden-Monaro
Taking in the south-eastern corner of New South Wales, including Queanbeyan, Cooma, Tumut and the coast from Batemans Bay south to Eden and the Victorian border, Eden-Monaro is renowned throughout the land as the seat that goes with the party who wins the election. Until 2007 its record as a bellwether was in fact surpassed by Macarthur, which had gone with the winning party at every election since its creation in 1949, but while Eden-Monaro stayed true to form by being among the seven New South Wales seats to switch to Labor with the election of the Rudd government, Liberal member Pat Farmer held on in Macarthur. The seat bucked the statewide trend in 2010 by recording a 2.0% swing to Labor, in what was very likely a vote of confidence in the popular local member, Mike Kelly.
Perhaps explaining its bellwether status, Eden-Monaro offers something of a microcosm of the state at large, if not the entire country. It incorporates suburban Queanbeyan, rural centres Cooma and Bega, coastal towns Eden and Narooma, and agricultural areas sprinkled with small towns. Labor’s strongest area is the electorate is the Canberra satellite town of Queanbeyan, excluding its Liberal-leaning outer suburb of Jerrabomberra. The coastal areas, which swung particularly heavily to Labor in 2007, can be divided between a finely balanced centre and areas of Liberal strength at the northern and southern extremities, respectively around Batemans Bay and Merimbula. The smaller inland towns are solidly conservative, but Cooma is highly marginal. The area covered by the electorate has been remarkably little changed over the years: it has been locked into the state’s south-eastern corner since federation, and its geographic size has remained fairly consistent as increases in the size of parliament cancelled out the effects of relative population decline. Outside of the interruption from 2007 and 2010, when it expanded westwards to Tumut and Tumbarumba, its boundaries since 1998 have been almost identical to those it had before 1913.
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Categories: Federal Election 2013, Federal Politics 2010-
Ian
Which it will. Function with impartiality and without interference that is.
The AGS will act professionally in acting on the instructions of FWA and advising it. Barristers will do the same and so will any judge hearing any complaints.
by shellbell on May 25, 2012 at 10:46 am
Dave will be the classic ‘Worried Man’ – Clegg, I expect, is trying very hard to work out what he should do to try to save LibDems.
The Conservatives were doomed at the next election anyway – Milliband will be looking at a very clean budget, courtesy of Dave, and will only have hint that he’ll offer something in education and a few other selected areas and he’ll walk it in.
by CTar1 on May 25, 2012 at 10:46 am
re Thomson, looks like a 3rd card, an AMEX card, may be involved.
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/sydney-news/escorts-claims-could-sink-mp-craig-thomson/story-fn7q4q9f-1226366166474
by Gauss on May 25, 2012 at 10:49 am
Gauss
The defamation suit was in the NSW Supreme Court and does not appear to have been argued above the lowest level of that court, a Registrar, about documents before it was settled.
by shellbell on May 25, 2012 at 10:49 am
I think we need to fight for Australia, not the Labor Party. Parties come into power and get thrown out – almost to a rhythm.
WE need to fight for things like the NBN, which I believe to be the most important and far-reaching piece of infrastructure Australia has created in a century.
The compilation of the BISONS on this blog is a very good endeavor, but should be broadened as a resource to be used in the fightback.
I get a lot of emails from long-forgotten subscriptions, and have a steady stream along these lines. I usually ignore them, but just feel like lashing out sometimes.
The faux humour at the end is supposed to disguise the ridiculous argument contained within. (Not the logical inconsistencies, but the idea that “industry” is being wiped out)
I shot off this reply
Nonsense, there are plenty of Australian Businesses using American technology to sell Chinese goods.
An economy doesn’t consist only of selling things you make yourself. There is no difference selling Chinese goods using US technology and using US tech selling Australian goods.
Emerging evidence is indicating that countries that have had their manufacturing industry disassembled are more equipped to deal with Global financial shocks and the new trading paradigm.
Think about it like this. Why would you expend energy producing commodity goods that are subject to extreme price pressures, when you can engage a captive workforce, under slave-like conditions to produce them for you? Setting aside the moral issues, it is clearly not desirable to perpetuate slave-like conditions for your compatriots. That is why Australia is considered by the OECD to be just about the top-tier country using every economic yardstick available.
You still make a profit in the new economy – just differently. Think about it as getting rid of unprofitable operations, and focusing on the most profitable segment of the business. The most profitable segment is always the segment that involves finding and getting the customer.
While we were whinging about losing our blue-collar jobs, it is emerging that the yanks producing low-cost technology for us and we are reaping the benefits. We are positioned to simply suck the cream off the global economy; all because we shifted pour focus away from a futile effort to protect our blue-collar industries.
The US did try to protect their blue-collar industries; and are saddled with hundreds of rust-belt cities with no alternative options. Popular cant like this merely perpetuates a victim mentality that is certainly not justified. Australians are considered to be the most fortunate citizens of any country in the world. Supplanting countries like Denmark and Sweden, which were supposed to be socialist paradises.
Wake up and smell the roses, you are losing out. Why hobble yourself with lachrymose sentimentality that has you pivoting on a breadline paradigm?
by JohD on May 25, 2012 at 10:50 am
Shellbell did I hear you swear the other night? I almost lost my coffee.
by davidwh on May 25, 2012 at 10:50 am
Sorry who is paying Craig Thomson’s legal bills again. Ian Robertson from Holding Redlich doesn’t come cheap?
Oh that’s right it’s Julia Gillard’s political party.
So what would happen if Gillard’s party stopped paying his legal bills?
Bankrupts are disqualified from Parliament.
Maybe Oakeshott and Windsor could chip in a few bucks to help save their jobs a bit longer and Andrew Wilkie given that Gillard needs his vote again. He might get some more pokie reform wriggle room now that she needs his vote and has to suck up again.
Oz Pol Tragic thanks for the good laugh and humurous predictions!
by stanny on May 25, 2012 at 10:51 am
Gaus
Did you read the article. The card was used and issued prior to Thomson starting at the HSU. These go back 10 years. Is it even a crime?
by victoria on May 25, 2012 at 10:51 am
Gary
Anything to keep linking Gillard to Thomson. That’s how stupid he takes us all for being.
by triton on May 25, 2012 at 10:52 am
DWH
Yes but only for dramatic effect
by shellbell on May 25, 2012 at 10:52 am
Another Tory who can’t get her/his head around statute of limitations, Parliamentary privilege and a few other legal & parliamentary principles. Not that there is any excuse for not doing so. It’s not as if they’re recent introductions. Henry VII’s been dead for ages – since 1509, in fact!
Btw, since Hollingsworth decision involved the cover-up of disgusting incidents in a school within walking distance of my place, a good case could have been made for legal proceedings against him.
by OzPol Tragic on May 25, 2012 at 10:55 am
Next week parly sits for four days. Then again for 8 days commencing Monday 18th June. The further directions hearing on Slipper is listed for Friday the 15th June.
by victoria on May 25, 2012 at 10:55 am
“THE CRIMES ACT (COMMONWEALTH) 1914 Part ll. Any person who, by violence or by threats or intimidation of any kind, hinders or interferes with the free exercise or performance, by any other person, of any political right or duty, shall be guilty of an offence.
The key sentence here is “hinders or interferes with the free exercise”. What would Abbott have to do to be guilty of this? Yelling at Gillard to sack Thomson does not cover it. He would almost have to block the Chamber entrance door and say to Thomson “don’t go in there mate we are going to do you over today, just keep walking.”
I cannot see any circumstance where the Crimes Act would come into play.
by Phil Vee on May 25, 2012 at 10:56 am
http://manly-daily.whereilive.com.au/news/story/palmie-firm-in-hsu-furore/
This is the story re Communigraphix in 2011
by lizzie on May 25, 2012 at 10:56 am
Victoria Thomson was a senior official of HSU NSW at the time so if it has legs then it depends on what favours the third party received in return. That could come into the realms of corruption charges. In a more general sense if proved then it could show a pattern of behaviour which makes his defence of the other claims less believable.
It depends on what is allowable for the prosection to use in any action. If it’s not directly relevant to the charges then they may not be able to use it. That’s Shellbell’s area of expertise.
by davidwh on May 25, 2012 at 10:57 am
Fairfax have the ‘fruits’ of the discovery done for the defamation matter, I think.
by CTar1 on May 25, 2012 at 10:57 am
I don’t know much about Twitter but here is my tweet to Mike Kelly – I picked him because he is a Raiders fan
@MikeKellyMP – ? for Abbott – should Ted Baillieu accept Geoff Shaw’s “tainted vote” or bring down the government – double standards???
don’t know if I did it right though
by womble on May 25, 2012 at 10:58 am
With the exception of poster checking out the. DL
May by now its only the very rusted on libs who read the above
Its actualy not evee seen in this state, well not where i go
by my say on May 25, 2012 at 10:58 am
hinder·er n.
Synonyms: hinder1, hamper1, impede, obstruct, block, dam1, bar1
These verbs mean to slow or prevent progress or movement. To hinder is to hold back and often implies stopping or prevention: The travelers were hindered by storms.
To hamper is to hinder by or as if by fastening or entangling: His clothes hampered his efforts to swim to safety.
To impede is to slow by making action or movement difficult: “Our journey was impeded by a thousand obstacles” (Mary Shelley).
Obstruct implies the presence of obstacles: A building obstructed our view of the mountains.
Block refers to complete obstruction that prevents progress, passage, or action: “Do not block the way of inquiry” (Charles S. Peirce).
Dam suggests obstruction of the flow, progress, or release of something: She dammed the brook to form a pool. He dammed up his emotions.
To bar is to prevent entry or exit or prohibit a course of action: The legislature passed laws that bar price fixing.]
by victoria on May 25, 2012 at 10:58 am
It worked with me shellbell
by davidwh on May 25, 2012 at 10:58 am
Abbott should be in front of the privilege committee for deliberately misreading the house
he knows Thomson is now a independent and gillard is not clinging on him to stay in the labor party
by Meguire Bob on May 25, 2012 at 10:59 am
I suppose that should be the Dlt
by my say on May 25, 2012 at 10:59 am
Dr. Afridi helped the CIA to find Bin Laden been jailed for at least 30y – http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-18175964 – this is weird. Why CIA didnt pluck him out
by The Finnigans on May 25, 2012 at 10:59 am
misleading the house i mean
by Meguire Bob on May 25, 2012 at 10:59 am
Phil vee,
I reckon there would be an argument for intimidation. Doesn’t have to be physical.
by Space Kidette on May 25, 2012 at 10:59 am
davidwh
Again, there needs to be charges brought against him and dealt with in a court of law. Nothing of the sort has occurred as yet. So why should he resign from parliament???
by victoria on May 25, 2012 at 10:59 am
I think we are all making a mistake in the way we treat Abbott ( and unless it is part of a govt plan to keep him there a bit longer, so too then would I include the Govt in that mistake).
Abbott loves the attention. Every time we bad mouth him he stands taller. He sees this as another badge of honour in having people a) talk about him and b)see that he is getting under our skin.
Th approach to Abbott in MHO is ridicule and humour. He hates it and this is what will make him crack. Admittedly may need more than 1 example for my theory but look at his reaction to “I’m red he’s cross”
by RNM1953 on May 25, 2012 at 11:00 am
victoria
Eh.
Kickbacks from suppliers not a crime? If it happened it most definely is a crime.
by Gauss on May 25, 2012 at 11:01 am
Gaus
Has Thomson been charged with a crime as yet?
by victoria on May 25, 2012 at 11:02 am
Tony Abbott is a bully from his Uni Days. He tried to bully #Thomson and now he tried to bully a female PM. But she’s tougher than him
by The Finnigans on May 25, 2012 at 11:02 am
Ctar1
Ths use of the documents which are not in the public domain but were obtained in the discovery process is dodgy if that is what Fairfax is doing. Maybe the documents are sourced from outside discovery
by shellbell on May 25, 2012 at 11:02 am
The finns
Is there going to be moar? The coalition need to be put back in their box. They are giving me the shits
by victoria on May 25, 2012 at 11:03 am
Why would a contractor supply anyone with a credit card? To buy what?
I bet there are a lot of business executives out there checking their 15 year old credit card statements.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on May 25, 2012 at 11:03 am
It will be interesting to see if this all comes out in the wash that Thomson received a credit card as part of his employment package.
My brother was offered a company credit card or a new vehicle as part of his employment package.
by Dee on May 25, 2012 at 11:05 am
So? All that shows is:
(a) any payment would be on the Communigraphix bills, not HSU’s
(b) paying a prostitute is not a crime in most states
(c) anyway, 10 years ago, in NSW, is past Statute of Limitations cut off point.
No grounds whatsoever for Thomson to quit his job; hence one would have to be exceedingly careful of what one says concerning it outside Parliamentary Privilege.
by OzPol Tragic on May 25, 2012 at 11:05 am
victoria I’m not saying he should resign just discussing the issue and principle. Both NSW and VIC police will carry out a very extensive forensic investigation of the matters and either build up a folder of evidence capable of being defended in any actions which arise of they will let the matter drop. But they have ways to get to the substance of matters so if Thomson has anything to answer for my guess he will have to regardless of all his prostestations of innocence.
by davidwh on May 25, 2012 at 11:06 am
Puff
http://www.thepowerindex.com.au/head-to-head/williamson-to-remain-for-months/201204101234
Williamson’s alleged use of said credit card
by shellbell on May 25, 2012 at 11:07 am
I am more flabbergasted that ACA are not only paying this hooker 60,000 but have taken her out of the country. Wtf for????
by victoria on May 25, 2012 at 11:07 am
If it occured prior to 2002, prior to Mr Thomsons employment, doesn’t that add some credence to Thomsons claim that it wasn’t him. Someone was obviously doing it before he arrived on the scene.
Or do I have this wrong?
by Space Kidette on May 25, 2012 at 11:07 am
my say
It will be interesting to see Sean Micalliff’s take on it tonight. The title of his programme comes from the movie Network. A prediction of talking heads opinions replacing news.
by guytaur on May 25, 2012 at 11:09 am
davidwh
There are nine investigations apparently. Nine! If they come up with something, so be it. He will then have to defend himself in a court of law. The msm and coalition have already deemed him guilty. Would he even get a fair hearing. Goodness, even mass murderers get a fairer deal. This is beyond the pale, and nothing you tories can say will make a jot of difference to this reality
by victoria on May 25, 2012 at 11:09 am
SK
Precisely. How many officials are there in the HSU. Why is all the focus on Mr Thomson?
by victoria on May 25, 2012 at 11:10 am
The terms of settlement ? Thomson has more likely than not breached those.
A copy of Thomson’s current license was one item I’ve seen mentioned as being part of what was discovered.
by CTar1 on May 25, 2012 at 11:10 am
Space Kidette @ 1274
yes definitely intimidation but unfortunately Abbott can intimidate all he wants. It has to result in some sort of “obstruction” or “delay” or “prevention” as victoria pointed out in 1268. It does not have to be physical but not sure how this can happen. Reference to the Crimes Act is a bit of overreach.
by Phil Vee on May 25, 2012 at 11:11 am
SK my understanding is Thomson was employed by HSU NSW prior to 2002 and these are allegations relating to HSU NSW
by davidwh on May 25, 2012 at 11:11 am
[chris murphy @chrismurphys
8.36am Statement by Graeme Edwards re Craig ThomsonMP #auspol http://www.twitlonger.com/show/hi27t7
by Space Kidette on May 25, 2012 at 11:12 am
And made all the more difficult by the predictable pseudo sympathy, from the likes of Abbott, who shows all the attributes of the classic workplace bully. He and Pyne are looking increasingly unhinged as they rant and rave over whatever their puppet master, Credlin, fills their head with.
Why those around parliament are expected to put up with these mad antics is beyond me.
Mal Washer, if he really is sincere, should be looking beyond the mental health of Thomson to the effect the bizarre bozo who he follows is having on the psyche of the whole nation, for that matter.
by joe2 on May 25, 2012 at 11:13 am
Phil,
There is plenty of intimidation and the delay is the continual shutting down of qt to badger him. That is delaying.
by Space Kidette on May 25, 2012 at 11:14 am
vic
To distract attention away from Jackson?
by Dan Gulberry on May 25, 2012 at 11:15 am
victoria there are a number of investigations because there are a number of organisations involved and the matters cover three separate jurisdictions.
The reasons why Thomson is copping all the heat are pretty obvious. Politicians are involved and politicians tend to care more about the politics than the person.
by davidwh on May 25, 2012 at 11:15 am