Morgan face-to-face: 58-42 to Coalition; Seat of the week: Eden-Monaro
The latest Morgan face-to-face poll, conducted last week from a sample of 893, shows a slight improvement for Labor, up 1.5% to 32% on the primary vote with the Coalition down half a point to 45.5% and the Greens down 1.5% to 10.5%. This translates into a one point improvement on the respondent-allocated two-party preferred measure, from 59-48 to 58-42, and a half-point improvement on the previous election method, down from 55.5-44.5 to 55-45.
UPDATE (28/5/12): Essential Research has Labor losing one of the points on two-party preferred it clawed back over previous weeks, the result now at 57-43. Primary votes are 50% for the Coalition (up one), 33% for Labor (steady) and 10% for the Greens (steady). Other questions gauged views on the parties’ respective “attributes”, with all negative responses for Labor (chiefly “divided” and “will promise anything to win votes”) rating higher than all positives, and the Liberal Party doing rather better, rating well for “moderate” and “understands the problems facing Australia”. Bewilderingly, only slightly more respondents (35%) were willing to rate the state of the economy as “good” than “bad” (29%), with 33% opting for neither, although 43% rated the position of their household satisfactory against 28% unsatisfactory.
In today’s installment of Seat of the Week, it’s everybody’s favourite:
Seat of the week: Eden-Monaro
Taking in the south-eastern corner of New South Wales, including Queanbeyan, Cooma, Tumut and the coast from Batemans Bay south to Eden and the Victorian border, Eden-Monaro is renowned throughout the land as the seat that goes with the party who wins the election. Until 2007 its record as a bellwether was in fact surpassed by Macarthur, which had gone with the winning party at every election since its creation in 1949, but while Eden-Monaro stayed true to form by being among the seven New South Wales seats to switch to Labor with the election of the Rudd government, Liberal member Pat Farmer held on in Macarthur. The seat bucked the statewide trend in 2010 by recording a 2.0% swing to Labor, in what was very likely a vote of confidence in the popular local member, Mike Kelly.
Perhaps explaining its bellwether status, Eden-Monaro offers something of a microcosm of the state at large, if not the entire country. It incorporates suburban Queanbeyan, rural centres Cooma and Bega, coastal towns Eden and Narooma, and agricultural areas sprinkled with small towns. Labor’s strongest area is the electorate is the Canberra satellite town of Queanbeyan, excluding its Liberal-leaning outer suburb of Jerrabomberra. The coastal areas, which swung particularly heavily to Labor in 2007, can be divided between a finely balanced centre and areas of Liberal strength at the northern and southern extremities, respectively around Batemans Bay and Merimbula. The smaller inland towns are solidly conservative, but Cooma is highly marginal. The area covered by the electorate has been remarkably little changed over the years: it has been locked into the state’s south-eastern corner since federation, and its geographic size has remained fairly consistent as increases in the size of parliament cancelled out the effects of relative population decline. Outside of the interruption from 2007 and 2010, when it expanded westwards to Tumut and Tumbarumba, its boundaries since 1998 have been almost identical to those it had before 1913.
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Categories: Federal Election 2013, Federal Politics 2010-
The threat was obvious from the audio I heard from the Ch 9 interview this morning.
wtte if you leave parliament we lay off, if you stay we will keep it up
by deflationite on May 25, 2012 at 12:31 pm
If the Libs are so concerned about Thomson’s health they will offer him a pair whether he is an indy or not. We know they won’t.
by Gary on May 25, 2012 at 12:31 pm
by guytaur on May 25, 2012 at 12:31 pm
I notice they don’t seem to have mates …
by CTar1 on May 25, 2012 at 12:33 pm
Lynchpin
It goes to the heart of whether it was in fact Thomson who used the services of prostitutes, as concluded in the FWA report. Thomson has denied this in Parliament.
by Gauss on May 25, 2012 at 12:33 pm
Another reminded for any Bludgers in Melbourne on 13 June. Interesting to hear what the head of the IPA has to say.
by Son of foro on May 25, 2012 at 12:34 pm
Deflationite, is that what Abbott said? It definitely sounds like coercion to me. I am not a criminal lawyer, so cannot oPyne whether it amounts to a breach. Perhaps someone should email Mudguard Brandis to get his views.
by Lynchpin on May 25, 2012 at 12:35 pm
This is taking having balls for dinner comments too far.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/05/24/asexual-mao-sugiyama-cooks-serves-own-genitals_n_1543307.html
by guytaur on May 25, 2012 at 12:36 pm
Gauss
Did he categorically deny ever using a prostitute?
by Lynchpin on May 25, 2012 at 12:36 pm
When they have the money in their BANK accounts their HEARTS and MINDS will follow.
Apologies to the Yes Minister series.
Two million parents and aprox two million grandparents, if that does not change things I will be very surprised, thats a hell of a lot of voters!.
by 1934pc on May 25, 2012 at 12:37 pm
This needs to be emphasised:
Legally, Mr Thomson currently has the same right to remain in the House of Representatives and to vote, as does Mr Abbott.
by citizen on May 25, 2012 at 12:37 pm
Gary fair minded people know the human thing to do is for both sides to agree to offer Thomson some extended leave with a pair so the numbers aren’t affected but it’s not going to happen. We will just get more of Abbott trying to squeeze Labor and Labor looking for an angle to squeeze Abbott and Thomson will end up squeezed between the two of them. It’s ugly but I don’t see things changing in any real sense any tome soon.
by davidwh on May 25, 2012 at 12:37 pm
L
The US has already cut $400 billion off defence spending and this cut is likely to be doubled.
I suspect that there are conflicts of interest at play. Journalists and newspapers should identify any connections, real or perceived, that they have with defence suppliers.
There are three big ticket items that underpin the bulk of the real cost cutting in defence expenditure.
The first is the JSX. This was a buy-in in haste and repent at leisure purchase by the Coalition. The project is years overdue, does not meet even the outmoded specifications and is becoming hideously expensive. Committing to the final purchase now would be a lunatic decision.
The second is the self-propelled artillary. These weigh 80 tonnes. They are so expensive that we could buy a small number. They are so heavy that we would struggle to get them to a real battlefield. They are so slow that they would be taken out virtually as soon as they are ‘seen’ which would be computerised nano seconds after a radar tracks the parabola of a shell. They would only ‘work’ if we were fighting an assymetrical war. But if we were fighting an asymetrical war we wouldn’t really need that level of sophistication. In short: the Army is playing us for fools.
The third is the submarine purchase. Given the Collins class fiasco and the JSX fiasco, the Australian Government is, IMHO, somewhat right to maintain the commitment to the 12 submarines but taking time and money to pick the right ones.
It is fairly clear that we will not be able to afford the rolls royce version going forward. Defence wants the Rolls Royce option.
The ‘cuts’ are significantly notional, were based on an affordable plan given the GFC consequences and the collaps in government revenues.
It is significant that the Opposition has barely raised a murmer about the Defence cuts. It knows that the $70 billion + black hole is bad enough without also promising to cover the Government’s Defence cuts and deferrals.
So it just leaves it to the defence estbalishment to do the shouting and the hollering.
by Boerwar on May 25, 2012 at 12:39 pm
Not really. The committee shouldn’t really be politicised in such a way anyhow. And I know ‘they started it’ – but Labor should be setting an example rather than descending into the cess pool.
by ltep on May 25, 2012 at 12:39 pm
Good. Take no fracking prisoners, eviscerate the
, and send his rabble into screaming traumatized rout.
by imacca on May 25, 2012 at 12:43 pm
[The ‘cuts’ are significantly notional, were based on an affordable plan given the GFC consequences and the collaps in government revenues.]\
Fcuk. That should read, ‘… were based on affordable plan before the GFC consequences and before the collaps in government revenues.’
by Boerwar on May 25, 2012 at 12:43 pm
Not just in Australia is health workers sex lives of interest.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2149321/Darent-Valley-Hospital-staff-accused-having-sex-cars.html
by guytaur on May 25, 2012 at 12:43 pm
So the Crimes Act stuff is a stunt then.
by bluegreen on May 25, 2012 at 12:43 pm
Lynchpin
http://australianpolitics.com/downloads/alp/12-05-21_craig-thomson-statement-to-house.pdf
by Gauss on May 25, 2012 at 12:46 pm
BG just politics. An attempt to switch the pressure back onto Abbott.
I can’t see anything remotely in what Abbott said that is a potential breach of the Crimes Act. Abbott prefaced his statement with “obviously the best thing for him and his family”.
by davidwh on May 25, 2012 at 12:49 pm
gauss
Its denied. No proof. Therefore innocent until proven guilty. Even in Parliament.
by guytaur on May 25, 2012 at 12:49 pm
Darn 1365 Could you please provide a link or point me to where I could find the proposed planning law changes here in Victoria
by mexicanbeemer on May 25, 2012 at 12:51 pm
by Space Kidette on May 25, 2012 at 12:52 pm
Has anyone got a link to Abbott actually saying this. or words to that effect?
I’d think that is the least of
worries. 
Would be interesting to know if this is Albo flying a fighting kite, or if there is serious advice being taken on the matter.
Can we run a sweep on how long it will take Brandis SC to pipe up with a comment??
by imacca on May 25, 2012 at 12:52 pm
davidwh,
It isn’t in one statement. It is in the collective statements in parliament and the media. A continual demand for Thomson to set down.
by Space Kidette on May 25, 2012 at 12:53 pm
sorry step down.
by Space Kidette on May 25, 2012 at 12:53 pm
guytaur
An example of innocent till proven guity?
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/rampant-corruption-crime-gangs-arms-smuggling-drugs-20120524-1z7yf.html?skin=text-only
by Gauss on May 25, 2012 at 12:54 pm
imacca
The longer it takes for Mr Brandis SC to reply the more validity to Mr Albanese comments
by guytaur on May 25, 2012 at 12:54 pm
[Melissa Sweet @croakeyblog
P'raps Peter Dutton & co should read Margaret Chan's talk this week re imptnce of #primaryhealthcare #MedicareLocals http://blogs.crikey.com.au/croakey/2012/05/25/the-financial-crunch-and-its-impact-on-health-globally-nationally-and-locally-with-particular-reference-to-tasmania/#.T770C2Zfatk.twitter
by Space Kidette on May 25, 2012 at 12:55 pm
gauss
That is changing a condition required to work or keep your work. They could do the same for Parliament it is just that a Referendum would be needed.
by guytaur on May 25, 2012 at 12:56 pm
Earthquake hits Christchurch 5.2
by guytaur on May 25, 2012 at 12:58 pm
Breaking: Christchurch has been hit by a 5.2 magnitude earthquake.
by Space Kidette on May 25, 2012 at 12:58 pm
Someone on this site earlier cited the relevant section of the Crimes Act. Can someone remember what is was?
by Lynchpin on May 25, 2012 at 12:58 pm
SK I know but it’s still just part of a robust political debate from both sides. It may be more grubby and robust than usual but I can’t imagine any court getting in between warring politicians.
by davidwh on May 25, 2012 at 12:58 pm
What Abbott is doing to #Thomson is a clear cut workplace bullying by a colleague to another, it is as simple as that. This should be tested
by The Finnigans on May 25, 2012 at 12:59 pm
You’re dead right on this. A C-17 Globemaster will move the current (useless for us tank) @ 61 tonnes but about 70 tonnes is beyond its limit).
So ship-lift would be required – and where would we want to take them anyway ….
by CTar1 on May 25, 2012 at 1:00 pm
Boerwar @ 1412
So defence wants to buy the Jakarta Stock Exchange??? I don’t understand.
by bemused on May 25, 2012 at 1:01 pm
davidwh,
This is different. Intimidation is a part of the law and I doubt anyone would consider that Thomson hasn’t been intimidated. He has made the statements in parliament. Abbott has also been consistently misleading the parliament with the $500k claim.
Collectively they might have a case.
by Space Kidette on May 25, 2012 at 1:02 pm
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-05-25/quit-for-your-own-good-abbott-tells-thomson/4032340
Abbott’s hypocrisy in this is astounding. It ranks in the same league as a male who rapes a female and says she wore a short skirt and provoked me.
Abbott = A True Slimeball.
by Lynchpin on May 25, 2012 at 1:03 pm
Abbott’s interview on Today show this morning where he mentions that Thomson should leave parliament for his own good.
http://today.ninemsn.com.au/?videoid=a58d8278-ec75-4923-8569-6e930b43dfd7
by deflationite on May 25, 2012 at 1:04 pm
The Mafia have been known to ask people to leave places ‘for their own good’.
by deflationite on May 25, 2012 at 1:05 pm
Gauss, your quote is hardly “categorical” about his use, “ever”, of prostitutes, which is, specifically, nobody’s business anyway.
by joe2 on May 25, 2012 at 1:05 pm
One could argue a strong case that the constant attacks on Thomson constitute bullying behavior and in all the workplaces that I have worked in would not be tolerated.
Bullying can take several difference firms, the only thing that excuses Abbott is the cultural standards of the Federal Parliament are such that the normal rules appear to be suspended and that is nothing new.
Sadly the parliament has always had a non normal workplace set of rules that from time to time awards bullying behavior.
Yelling and interrupting are not normal workplace rules yet the best political performers tend to the best at it.
by mexicanbeemer on May 25, 2012 at 1:06 pm
b
Hah. The JSX would be worth more. JSF.
by Boerwar on May 25, 2012 at 1:06 pm
CTar – we could ship them to Christmas Island and presumably fire them at any approaching Asylum Seeker vessels.
by Burgey on May 25, 2012 at 1:06 pm
Clearly too much koolaid libbots.
It isn’t just politics – Abbott has clearly been trying to destroy a democratically elected Govt by destroying Thomson. Abbott has not got a job that requires him to investigate, prosecute or persecute anyone but yet that is what he is doing. why is he doing it. To stop Thomson being the member for Dobell. Is it a crime – I don’t know but i know it should be.
Couple of other circle jerks that annoy me. Firstly that lib and lab are the same. It isn’t true. Abbott is an absolute disgrace in a way noone on either side has ever been before. But keep telling yourself that as you drink the koolaid and worship tony in your deep cesspit.
The second is that the minority govt is to blame for any of this – it is absurd – Abbott is responsible and the media is complicit. Labor had clean hands, maybe because of the indies, but it had been one if the best governing most honest govts we’ve had in at least 15 years.
Noone close to Paul or Gough’s calibre but arguably better performing govts in much harder circumstances.
by WeWantPaul on May 25, 2012 at 1:06 pm
Joe 2, agreed.
by Lynchpin on May 25, 2012 at 1:07 pm
bemused
Hah. The JSX is at least capable of going up as well as coming down. JSF.
by Boerwar on May 25, 2012 at 1:07 pm
Well said WeWant Paul
by Lynchpin on May 25, 2012 at 1:08 pm
the independents could put a motion for the house to vote on an censure against abbott
Intimidation etc. of Members
To attempt to influence a Member in his or her conduct as a Member by threats, or to molest any Member on account of his or her conduct in the Parliament, is a contempt. So too is any conduct having a tendency to impair a Member’s independence in the future performance of his or her duty, subject, since 1987, to the provisions of the Parliamentary Privileges Act.
by Meguire Bob on May 25, 2012 at 1:08 pm