Morgan face-to-face: 58-42 to Coalition; Seat of the week: Eden-Monaro
The latest Morgan face-to-face poll, conducted last week from a sample of 893, shows a slight improvement for Labor, up 1.5% to 32% on the primary vote with the Coalition down half a point to 45.5% and the Greens down 1.5% to 10.5%. This translates into a one point improvement on the respondent-allocated two-party preferred measure, from 59-48 to 58-42, and a half-point improvement on the previous election method, down from 55.5-44.5 to 55-45.
UPDATE (28/5/12): Essential Research has Labor losing one of the points on two-party preferred it clawed back over previous weeks, the result now at 57-43. Primary votes are 50% for the Coalition (up one), 33% for Labor (steady) and 10% for the Greens (steady). Other questions gauged views on the parties’ respective “attributes”, with all negative responses for Labor (chiefly “divided” and “will promise anything to win votes”) rating higher than all positives, and the Liberal Party doing rather better, rating well for “moderate” and “understands the problems facing Australia”. Bewilderingly, only slightly more respondents (35%) were willing to rate the state of the economy as “good” than “bad” (29%), with 33% opting for neither, although 43% rated the position of their household satisfactory against 28% unsatisfactory.
In today’s installment of Seat of the Week, it’s everybody’s favourite:
Seat of the week: Eden-Monaro
Taking in the south-eastern corner of New South Wales, including Queanbeyan, Cooma, Tumut and the coast from Batemans Bay south to Eden and the Victorian border, Eden-Monaro is renowned throughout the land as the seat that goes with the party who wins the election. Until 2007 its record as a bellwether was in fact surpassed by Macarthur, which had gone with the winning party at every election since its creation in 1949, but while Eden-Monaro stayed true to form by being among the seven New South Wales seats to switch to Labor with the election of the Rudd government, Liberal member Pat Farmer held on in Macarthur. The seat bucked the statewide trend in 2010 by recording a 2.0% swing to Labor, in what was very likely a vote of confidence in the popular local member, Mike Kelly.
Perhaps explaining its bellwether status, Eden-Monaro offers something of a microcosm of the state at large, if not the entire country. It incorporates suburban Queanbeyan, rural centres Cooma and Bega, coastal towns Eden and Narooma, and agricultural areas sprinkled with small towns. Labor’s strongest area is the electorate is the Canberra satellite town of Queanbeyan, excluding its Liberal-leaning outer suburb of Jerrabomberra. The coastal areas, which swung particularly heavily to Labor in 2007, can be divided between a finely balanced centre and areas of Liberal strength at the northern and southern extremities, respectively around Batemans Bay and Merimbula. The smaller inland towns are solidly conservative, but Cooma is highly marginal. The area covered by the electorate has been remarkably little changed over the years: it has been locked into the state’s south-eastern corner since federation, and its geographic size has remained fairly consistent as increases in the size of parliament cancelled out the effects of relative population decline. Outside of the interruption from 2007 and 2010, when it expanded westwards to Tumut and Tumbarumba, its boundaries since 1998 have been almost identical to those it had before 1913.
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Categories: Federal Election 2013, Federal Politics 2010-
Well, maybe a lack of concern troll.
by Boerwar on May 25, 2012 at 4:19 pm
fredn you can’t deny a person access to the legal system just because you don’t like them. That’s why we have courts and judges. The magistrate will no doubt make a ruling based on all the circumstances which is as it should be.
by davidwh on May 25, 2012 at 4:19 pm
Sol of SnakevTales fame had a saying I think suits Abbott.
Not gettibg it exactly right, but along this line.
by guytaur on May 25, 2012 at 4:20 pm
I think CT’s tough enough to take another 4 days of turning up for votes, inc divisions. That is all he needs to do, and someone (prob the Whip) will ensure he does so. For the rest of the time he can catch up on some sleep.
After those 4 days there’s a 17 day break, then 8 days (June 18-21; 25-28) when he’ll be required to vote. After that, Parliament breaks for Winter Recess until August 14.
Even in the last week of June, the Ashby case & Pyne’s role might be back in the news. By 14 August, all hell might have broken loose in the Coalition & in HSU+ FWA, and CT’s “sins” look tame.
Whatever else happens, the CP will have been in force for 6 weeks before Parliament resumes.
by OzPol Tragic on May 25, 2012 at 4:21 pm
Why? The nasty thing to do to the Liberals is hang on. My money is on slipper and thompson being there when Gillard calls the election according to her wishes.
by fredn on May 25, 2012 at 4:21 pm
No dio
Not according to the art teacher
by my say on May 25, 2012 at 4:21 pm
deblonay – Talking of typo’s …
by CTar1 on May 25, 2012 at 4:21 pm
Mr Abbott, crocodile tears man par excellence.
by Boerwar on May 25, 2012 at 4:21 pm
I imagine that there would be several thousand doctors in the land willing to give Mr Thomson a sick certificate.
But, if so, would the Opposition grant him a pair?
by Boerwar on May 25, 2012 at 4:22 pm
my say,
Did the art teacher contract dio’s (correct) assertion, or did the art teacher suggest that you were/are predominantly left-brain?
by fiona on May 25, 2012 at 4:23 pm
imacca @ 1711
But of course if you are not part of “The Cartel” your time and effort in preparing and conducting your defence has no value. So what did you get? your filing costs?
What a stinking racket the legal “profession” is.
by bemused on May 25, 2012 at 4:25 pm
OPT
As I said this morning, I think, this is the prime point in Abbott and Pyne’s mind at the moment.
All or nothing /death or disgrace.
by CTar1 on May 25, 2012 at 4:26 pm
HELP! There’s a typo virus on the loose at PB.
mysay,
what I meant to ask was:
by fiona on May 25, 2012 at 4:27 pm
This is how i had it eplained to me.
Orderly Art = Left Brain
In contrast to abstraction, left brained people may be more attracted to a more ‘orderly’ form of art — either photo-realistic, or otherwise. As long as it is artwork with guidelines, form, and sense, it works.
Below is a painting, with plenty of creativity — but also with little abstraction.
by my say on May 25, 2012 at 4:27 pm
How does someone get costs against the Police in a criminal matters unless the charges were egregious? Must be different in SA to here. Wasn’t she found guilty but a conviction not recorded or something? How do you get costs if you plead not guilty but you’re found guilty?
What an extraordinary set of circumstances that strikes me as being.
by Burgey on May 25, 2012 at 4:29 pm
I agree, but it should be legal aid like everyone else.
by fredn on May 25, 2012 at 4:30 pm
Left Brain for close and focused attention ignoring extraneous events ? Sounds right ??
by CTar1 on May 25, 2012 at 4:31 pm
1760 – nice one Bemused. If I do a spot of plumbing at my own joint, do I write myself an invoice for the time it took to do it?
That’s one of the more stupid things I’ve heard – someone should defend themselves and get legal costs, when they didn’t actually pay any to begin with.
by Burgey on May 25, 2012 at 4:31 pm
Alternatively, he could arrange for his greatest enemy in the Coalition to take a year’s all expenses paid vacation in Antarctica.
by citizen on May 25, 2012 at 4:31 pm
Who was presumed innocent when Windsor pursued Anderson?
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/opinion/who-was-presumed-innocent-when-windsor-pursued-anderson/story-e6frg75f-1226366147275
by Gauss on May 25, 2012 at 4:32 pm
@1747 – just interested to know – what is your understanding of the Whitlam Government’s role in the withdrawal of Australian Forces versus it’s predecessor?
by Compact Crank on May 25, 2012 at 4:33 pm
Burgey it’s SA so anything is possible. But basically the way I am reading it the argument is that the plee agreement was fair in the first place and it’s only because senior police refused to agree to the agreement that resulted in the trial costs. As a result the magistrate looks like they are going to award partial relief because of those circumstances.
by davidwh on May 25, 2012 at 4:34 pm
#1769 sounds like a desparate clutch at straws from the MSM to cover up their complity with the Bully Abbotts whitch hunt
by Mick Collins on May 25, 2012 at 4:34 pm
victoria
And here we have the problem. Apparently in some situations and in some lights, Abbott is personable. The strategy must be to illuminate the Jekyll/Hyde nature of the man.
by lizzie on May 25, 2012 at 4:35 pm
Further my 1769 from the same link.
Oh the hypocrisy
by Gauss on May 25, 2012 at 4:35 pm
What do others think?
by victoria on May 25, 2012 at 4:36 pm
Wouldn’t an Independent need a pair from both sides of the house and a phone call for each vote to see which way he was swinging???
by Compact Crank on May 25, 2012 at 4:36 pm
#1774 Oh the straw clutch
by Mick Collins on May 25, 2012 at 4:37 pm
Well it was at a quilti g course i did some years ago with an american lady
They are the masters of this art,
To be aquilter u have to understand maths, now thats te scary part.”for me school was terrifying in that depattment
But i remember a maths teacher in about gr 2 that put squars oblongs ect togther in coloured form.
I must see things feel and put together
now maths today is like that, i see the way my grandson is progressing.
So when it came to quilting design blocks.
Then pattern making maths was no longer a problem
This is where tne organized left brain for art clicks in
She was an amazing teacher, no computer software ware, just drawing interlocking
Blocks. Needlepoint has similar , as u gp tbrough each section seeing how its coming together.
by my say on May 25, 2012 at 4:37 pm
ww.goldcoast.com.au/article/2012/05/25/418681_tweed-byron-news.html prozzi details
by Space Kidette on May 25, 2012 at 4:37 pm
Re media, Fairfax Media hit what I think is its all time closing low of $0.625 today. Rinehart bought in earlier this year at about $0.82 I think, ~ -23%. John B Fairfax sold last year at $0.85, which is (currently) looking better in hindsight.
It’s equity market value is now $1.5bn. Its (net) debt was $1.1bn (as at Dec 11). IMO, a reasonably high level of debt for a business facing internal, economic cycle and industry structure challenges
by Laocoon on May 25, 2012 at 4:37 pm
david, thanks for that. I wondered why it would be someone found guilty would get their costs.
by Burgey on May 25, 2012 at 4:37 pm
my say
That is true. Abstract art is very right brain. Perspective and order is left.
Art in general is creative and imaginative and so more right than left.
by Diogenes on May 25, 2012 at 4:38 pm
I remember this well. Anderson was trying to get Windsor to stand aside in New England and the Nats dirty tricks unit swung into operation.
Windsor named names to defend himself. As usual Shanahahahan gilds the lilly.
by ruawake on May 25, 2012 at 4:38 pm
@1774 – but but but . . .that was different . . .there hadn’t been an inquiry that had made findings which had been publicly released . . .
or something like that
by Compact Crank on May 25, 2012 at 4:39 pm
Burgey @ 1767
You must be a part of “The Cartel” or at least a dupe.
Preparing a case takes time and you have to spend time at court. If you do it yourself so what? You have incurred the costs of your time which has a value.
by bemused on May 25, 2012 at 4:39 pm
Well yes fiona seems that way, orderly art not abstract
by my say on May 25, 2012 at 4:40 pm
Because Speaker Hawker had ruled the questions out of order. Geez some people need to read.
by ruawake on May 25, 2012 at 4:40 pm
Deblonay, a friend and I turned down an all expenses paid trip to play in a soccer tournament in Spain as a protest against Franco’s garroting of this young man.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/spain-seeks-justice-for-final-victim-of-ailing-francos-garrotte-415202.html
The NSW Liberals are infested Opus Dei cockroaches.
by Bill B. on May 25, 2012 at 4:40 pm
victoria @ 1775
Bowen already has a glaring exposure re’ Nauru and if attacked may not be defended.
by CTar1 on May 25, 2012 at 4:41 pm
Just saw 1696 i have had dealings with Mr Gerard Hayes within the party -enough said
by Oakeshott Country on May 25, 2012 at 4:42 pm
My say @ 1748
Thank you for the link to the blog. Unfortunately, there is still a lot of hand sewing there though the lady has used a running stitch rather than the slip stiching I was using. Somehow, I think machine sewing this part of the quilt will spoil it. My hands are riddled with osteo arthritis and I can no longer hold onto small things like needles. Shame, because I do love the look of the cathedral quilting.
I’ve bookmarked that link just in case I can find a way to use the sewing machine for it all.
by janice2 on May 25, 2012 at 4:42 pm
my say
Quilting would be pattern recognition and that is left brain.
by Diogenes on May 25, 2012 at 4:44 pm
1785 – you get, at best, your expenses for turning up to court for the day.
I’ve read Bemused’s tin foil hat stuff about the legal profession in the past.
The Local Court – it’s the new Area 51.
by Burgey on May 25, 2012 at 4:45 pm
Makes sense – the concentration to assemble a quilt using variable sets of cut shapes to produce a coherent (and beautiful) pattern is not something most people can do.
by CTar1 on May 25, 2012 at 4:46 pm
Do people think Bowen did not get Cabinet approval for the visa stuff?
by ruawake on May 25, 2012 at 4:46 pm
Burgey @ 1793
So only the time and effort of the Legal “Profession” has any value? Now that’s what I cal “tin foil hat stuff”… or naked self interest.
by bemused on May 25, 2012 at 4:47 pm
ru
Precisely. I dont get the strategy re Bowen. Surely cabinet were all on board with the visas. Why would JG be throwing him to the wolves? Is there something I am missing?
by victoria on May 25, 2012 at 4:48 pm
ruawake
Really
by Gauss on May 25, 2012 at 4:48 pm
ru
Maybe this?
by victoria on May 25, 2012 at 4:49 pm