Crikey



Morgan face-to-face: 58-42 to Coalition; Seat of the week: Eden-Monaro

The latest Morgan face-to-face poll, conducted last week from a sample of 893, shows a slight improvement for Labor, up 1.5% to 32% on the primary vote with the Coalition down half a point to 45.5% and the Greens down 1.5% to 10.5%. This translates into a one point improvement on the respondent-allocated two-party preferred measure, from 59-48 to 58-42, and a half-point improvement on the previous election method, down from 55.5-44.5 to 55-45.

UPDATE (28/5/12): Essential Research has Labor losing one of the points on two-party preferred it clawed back over previous weeks, the result now at 57-43. Primary votes are 50% for the Coalition (up one), 33% for Labor (steady) and 10% for the Greens (steady). Other questions gauged views on the parties’ respective “attributes”, with all negative responses for Labor (chiefly “divided” and “will promise anything to win votes”) rating higher than all positives, and the Liberal Party doing rather better, rating well for “moderate” and “understands the problems facing Australia”. Bewilderingly, only slightly more respondents (35%) were willing to rate the state of the economy as “good” than “bad” (29%), with 33% opting for neither, although 43% rated the position of their household satisfactory against 28% unsatisfactory.

In today’s installment of Seat of the Week, it’s everybody’s favourite:

Seat of the week: Eden-Monaro

Taking in the south-eastern corner of New South Wales, including Queanbeyan, Cooma, Tumut and the coast from Batemans Bay south to Eden and the Victorian border, Eden-Monaro is renowned throughout the land as the seat that goes with the party who wins the election. Until 2007 its record as a bellwether was in fact surpassed by Macarthur, which had gone with the winning party at every election since its creation in 1949, but while Eden-Monaro stayed true to form by being among the seven New South Wales seats to switch to Labor with the election of the Rudd government, Liberal member Pat Farmer held on in Macarthur. The seat bucked the statewide trend in 2010 by recording a 2.0% swing to Labor, in what was very likely a vote of confidence in the popular local member, Mike Kelly.

Perhaps explaining its bellwether status, Eden-Monaro offers something of a microcosm of the state at large, if not the entire country. It incorporates suburban Queanbeyan, rural centres Cooma and Bega, coastal towns Eden and Narooma, and agricultural areas sprinkled with small towns. Labor’s strongest area is the electorate is the Canberra satellite town of Queanbeyan, excluding its Liberal-leaning outer suburb of Jerrabomberra. The coastal areas, which swung particularly heavily to Labor in 2007, can be divided between a finely balanced centre and areas of Liberal strength at the northern and southern extremities, respectively around Batemans Bay and Merimbula. The smaller inland towns are solidly conservative, but Cooma is highly marginal. The area covered by the electorate has been remarkably little changed over the years: it has been locked into the state’s south-eastern corner since federation, and its geographic size has remained fairly consistent as increases in the size of parliament cancelled out the effects of relative population decline. Outside of the interruption from 2007 and 2010, when it expanded westwards to Tumut and Tumbarumba, its boundaries since 1998 have been almost identical to those it had before 1913.

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Categories: Federal Election 2013, Federal Politics 2010-2013

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  1. Allan,

    Did you see Tom Crone and a few others were charged with contempt. It will be interesting to see what Mr. Crone does. He knows where ALL the skeletons are buried.

    by Space Kidette on May 25, 2012 at 7:43 pm

  2. http://www.nbnweathershots.com.au/category/weather-tags/cloud

    Program on now about this. Abbott has no idea

    by my say on May 25, 2012 at 7:44 pm

  3. jenauthor
    The J5 stuff might be the sort of thing over which one should have shut up, laid low and not burnt the house down with on still in it.

    by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on May 25, 2012 at 7:45 pm

  4. jenauthor

    Is any of this accounting explained in the FWA report? If not, why not?

    by victoria on May 25, 2012 at 7:46 pm

  5. Mary Jo Hokey Pokey wants taxpayers to foot the bill for her recent court case.

    Low class welfare?

    by BK on May 25, 2012 at 7:46 pm

  6. http://www.cebit.com.au/ausinnovate/2012/interview-professor-paddy-nixon-deputy-vice-chancellor-research-university-of-tasmania-utas

    This the nbn cloud story

    by my say on May 25, 2012 at 7:47 pm

  7. womble:

    The Victorian situation is almost directly analogous to the federal scene in terms of a knife-edge majority. But we aren’t seeing (at least those of outside Vic aren’t seeing) the same destructive, debasing discourse used by LAbor there, as what the coalition are deploying federally.

    But yes, it will be interesting to see what happens with that Vic MP.

    by confessions on May 25, 2012 at 7:48 pm

  8. Low class welfare?

    Close.

    low life welfare.

    by dave on May 25, 2012 at 7:48 pm

  9. Jen
    According to IA that is a titbit from a whole picnic.

    by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on May 25, 2012 at 7:49 pm

  10. So channel 9 is paying and out of work strapper who used to be a hooker $60k and an overseas holiday to spill the beans

    Poor girl is starting right behind the 8 ball when it comes to credibility I’d suggest

    by womble on May 25, 2012 at 7:49 pm

  11. Seems this says abbott is a criminal

    sortius‏@sortius

    I think it’s time for AFP to arrest @TonyAbbottMHR for breaching CRIMES ACT 1914 – SECT 28: http://www.austlii.edu.au/au/legis/cth/consol_act/ca191482/s28.html

    by Schnappi on May 25, 2012 at 7:49 pm

  12. CC
    Think the public HATES witch hunts.

    I think one reason for Labor’s poor polling is the witch hunt on Rudd and so the o the same is now happening to the Libs.

    It has always been this way. I recall Labor attacks on Phil Lynch and Ian Sinclair and even Joh, all on “integrity”. No impact at all. The public just do not care.

    They hate sexual scandals too.

    by daretotread on May 25, 2012 at 7:49 pm

  13. While I generally just scroll by compact crank, I have noticed he think he has all knowledge all the time.

    It must feel good to believe you’re a god.

    by jenauthor on May 25, 2012 at 7:50 pm

  14. Surely the company must be able to support its advertised assertions with scientific data if it wants to continue with its advertising campaign.
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-05-25/swisse-wins-court-case-over-vitamin-slogan/4034076

    by BK on May 25, 2012 at 7:50 pm

  15. Jenauthor,

    When I Google Jackson 5 I get Michael Jackson and his fam-damily. Aaaaaaaaaaaaargh! ;-)

    Got a link to what you are referring to?

    by grantplant on May 25, 2012 at 7:51 pm

  16. Lizzie @ 2003:

    I had a father who always corrected grammar (he was a Printer’s Reader at the tiume – now there’s a dying breed) and a mother who when asked “what does that word mean?” always replied “Look it up in the dictionary.” She is now 93 and still reads 2-3 novels every day. In the genes!

    And if it wasn’t a word meaning, but a how, when, where, why, who, or what (not related to word meaning), it was straight off to the encyclopaedia? Snap!

    My parents and I were, are, and ever shall be, avid readers. Much to my amusement, however, my father who used to deplore my wasting time on novels, developed in his eighties a liking for fiction – though he always justifies it by saying that the book gives insight into the social history of the time.

    I managed to persuade him to read the entire Brother Cadfael series on that basis – and he thoroughly enjoyed it.

    :)

    by fiona on May 25, 2012 at 7:51 pm

  17. Aguirre

    Do you see Thomson giving Abbott what he wants?

    I don’t, no. I think it’s possible, but unlikely. Depends on Thomson’s current state of mind. Break him mentally by ramping up pressure on him and he might start thinking about putting his health first. But I don’t think we’re anywhere near that point.

    I’m just interested in watching Abbott chasing after the prize with little regard for what it’s doing to the public perception of his party. Chasing is perfectly consistent with their approach so far, so it’s not that surprising. But that they can continue to do it even when it threatens to damage their image is interesting.

    by Aguirre on May 25, 2012 at 7:51 pm

  18. http://www.independentaustralia.net/2012/politics/thomson-and-jackson-5-sticky-fingers/

    by Space Kidette on May 25, 2012 at 7:52 pm

  19. grantplant:

    http://www.independentaustralia.net/2012/politics/thomson-and-jackson-5-sticky-fingers/

    by confessions on May 25, 2012 at 7:53 pm

  20. womble

    Limited news have a lot of credibility. First they stitch up Slipper, and now they dredge out an anonymous hooker. What a frickin disgrace

    by victoria on May 25, 2012 at 7:53 pm

  21. victoria @ 2053:

    [Is any of this accounting explained in the FWA report? If not, why not?}

    Because it just isn’t.

    by fiona on May 25, 2012 at 7:54 pm

  22. victoria @ 2053:

    Is any of this accounting explained in the FWA report? If not, why not?

    Because it just isn’t.

    by fiona on May 25, 2012 at 7:54 pm

  23. So what could be the explanation for the alleged gross oversight by FWA regarding KJacksons activities within the HSU?

    by Dee on May 25, 2012 at 7:55 pm

  24. Tickled my funny bone

    The Old Aussie Bag‏@TheOldAussieBag

    Doing a crossword dears Q: What is the quintessential synonym for a pussy? 4 letters starts with C. Must be a mistake. Abbott is

    by Schnappi on May 25, 2012 at 7:55 pm

  25. fiona

    The FWA report took over 4 years and is 1100 pages long. Amazing!

    by victoria on May 25, 2012 at 7:55 pm

  26. Is any of this accounting explained in the FWA report? If not, why not?

    Investigations into HSU ongoing. I think this is HSU east – Thommo not part of.

    The FWA seems to have just focussed on Thommo.

    I have only read snippets of the FWA report … small snippets, and have no ‘legal’ background to judge the meaning of what I have read.

    I am wondering, considering the statement made by the woman who presented the report to the senate ctee, whether she was trying to distance herself from it?

    by jenauthor on May 25, 2012 at 7:56 pm

  27. abbott is 6 was left off

    by Schnappi on May 25, 2012 at 7:56 pm

  28. I wait with confidence this Report being splashed on the front pages of the ‘Daily Telegraph’ and ‘The Australian’ in terms of, climate scientists – wRONg again.

    http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/early-bloom.html

    But they may desist. Because the phenological results show that plants are responding far more sensitively to climate change than previously thought.

    This would, inter alia, help to destroy such thorough cost/benefit analyses as have already been purported to have been done by Mr Lomberg.

    But, then, I bet that Mr Lomberg did neither calculated the costs of earlier springs nor the costs of bark beetle plagues in his much-vaunted analysis when he claimed that ‘adaptation’ was the cheaper than prevention.

    by Boerwar on May 25, 2012 at 7:56 pm

  29. Confessions – Victorian Labor would be mad not to have a crack, it’s an unfolding story though so timing is the key. Latest re tax debts only came out today.

    I don’t expect them to get anywhere near as bad as Abbott though – they aren’t as desperate

    A good either way – I’m sure we’d both agree Australian politics would be a hell of a lot better off if Abbott wasn’t involved.

    by womble on May 25, 2012 at 7:56 pm

  30. SK & confessions;

    Thanks guys. Of course I should have gone to IA before google. :-)

    Wicks and the IA are embarrassing the MSM on this. Big, big time.

    by grantplant on May 25, 2012 at 7:57 pm

  31. Womble

    I have yet to hear a peep out of Mr Andrews, Labor opposition leader here in Vic re the situation with the Lib MP.

    by victoria on May 25, 2012 at 7:58 pm

  32. jenauthor

    Did Peter Wicks mention in his report how he came across the invoices for the childcare services which have been listed as staff uniforms?

    by victoria on May 25, 2012 at 7:59 pm

  33. http://www.independentaustralia.net/2012/politics/thomson-and-jackson-5-sticky-fingers/

    This Grantplant — make sure you click doc links – shows scanned docs

    by jenauthor on May 25, 2012 at 8:00 pm

  34. my sy
    That is fantastic.
    It is what Labor is doing. They are preparing Australia for a new world and that frightens Abbott and the people who back him. In such a world they will be the fossils.

    by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on May 25, 2012 at 8:00 pm

  35. (Schnappi Posted Friday, May 25, 2012 at 7:35 pm | Permalink

    Steve lewis now)

    Is this still the ch 9 person.’
    They are talking about, sorry for asking i click on newsltd

    by my say on May 25, 2012 at 8:00 pm

  36. victoria,

    The FWA report took over 4 years and is 1100 pages long. Amazing!

    There is one explanation that occurs to me, but it’s defamatory, so I shall spare Crikey, William, and myself.

    ;)

    by fiona on May 25, 2012 at 8:01 pm

  37. It is an interesting feature of PD James novels that they almost never feature non-white and non-anglos, hardly ever, ever, children; and vanishingly often, a loving couple with loving children.

    BTW, there’s a black detective in some of the later novels. Gets killed, I think. Haven’t read the novels since they first appeared.

    There were very few nonwhite, nonanglos in England in the 1970s, even in the early 80s – there was not an obviously large non-white population even on London and very few indeed in the country (most seemed to be from the WI and SubContinent). In fact, in 79, the most obvious characteristic was that one almost never heard an East Ender accent west of Ludgate Hill. Not many Europeans seemed to cross the Channel. Even in the Early 80s, though there was a bigger nonwhite population, there were no appreciable differences.

    Part of 1998′s ‘culture shock” after a 14 year break, was the Chunnel’s effect. Most noticeable were Eastern Europeans – in some parts of London there seemed to be more than there were Anglos. The non-white population was much greater (inc some stunning African men & women – the latter could have been models!). Unlike Londoners, neither group seemed bound by London’s “invisible” Ludgate Hill barrier. By 2003, both trends were more obvious, and Indian women seemed to run every currency exchange. By 2010, nonwhites were well represented in the south & midlands (though there were few in N’humberland & Durham.

    As for families, kids & the kitchen sink stiff. Damned if i want to read detective novels full of kids & schmaltz! If I wanted mundane reality, I’d have been a hausfrau, not a career girl, and read women’s mags, not detective fiction!

    Luckily, I all but missed postmodernism, political correctness and dumbing down as the late-Boomer & early GenX dominant paradigms. If “themes”, neo-peasantry and navel gazing didn’t turn me off, seeing the Tate’s magnificent Turners (once displayed so one could follow his artistic development) rearranged “thematically” (“Turner in Italy”, ffs!) against a true puce background. Puce!

    Long regarded as “a difficult colour to wear”, it “kills” subtle, nuanced colour, like skin & hair, and screams at clear bright colour. Try imagining Turner’s magnificent essays in colour and composition in gilded frames, meant to show to advantage against Regency England’s walls and among its furnishings and occupants’ attire, stuck over a puce background which, as always, leached much of the colour out of – of all artists – Turner, esp his sunsets! I was not the only person to write to the Tate in like vein (with much more sarcasm). I believe it was inundated! Puce! Unbelievable!

    by OzPol Tragic on May 25, 2012 at 8:03 pm

  38. fiona

    Without explaining why it would be defamatory, just state names

    by victoria on May 25, 2012 at 8:03 pm

  39. Puff, the Magic Dragon. Posted Friday, May 25, 2012 at 8:00 pm | Permalink

    my sy.

    PUFF i doubt any liberals would know any thi g about advantages,

    After all dont they think its just for down loading funny movies

    by my say on May 25, 2012 at 8:03 pm

  40. Did Peter Wicks mention in his report how he came across the invoices for the childcare services which have been listed as staff uniforms?

    I think he said they were given to him.

    Am wondering if ppl have been threatened and needed to go in back door?

    by jenauthor on May 25, 2012 at 8:03 pm

  41. I am wondering, considering the statement made by the woman who presented the report to the senate ctee, whether she was trying to distance herself from it?

    Political circumstances have forced the release of the initial investigation report.

    Normally the report would be evaluated internally after being finalised by someone who had not had any part of it – then solicitors would be consulted about action to be taken.

    by CTar1 on May 25, 2012 at 8:04 pm

  42. jenauthor

    Hmmm. Given to him by whom?

    by victoria on May 25, 2012 at 8:04 pm

  43. My Say

    Yes CH9

    http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/more-news/escorts-claims-could-sink-mp-craig-thomson/story-fn7x8me2-1226366328086

    by Schnappi on May 25, 2012 at 8:06 pm

  44. Victoria – he hasn’t had much to say yet, looks like this is about as hard as he has gone so far

    “This completely inappropriate behaviour is nothing new for this person,” Mr Andrews said. “He has set new records in terms of inappropriate behaviour in his only 18 months in the Victorian parliament.”

    And called for the matter (using his government authorised car in his private business) to be referred to the police

    Quote is from here

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/state-politics/heat-on-mp-over-alleged-rort/story-e6frgczx-1226361626786

    by womble on May 25, 2012 at 8:06 pm

  45. victoria,

    In this instance – especially because I have no evidence but only my own evil speculation – absolutely not.

    by fiona on May 25, 2012 at 8:07 pm

  46. micallef taking off kerry o’brien on abc

    by Schnappi on May 25, 2012 at 8:08 pm

  47. Hmmm. Given to him by whom?

    Dunno (sadly)

    by jenauthor on May 25, 2012 at 8:09 pm

  48. Womble

    Fair statement by Mr Andrews

    by victoria on May 25, 2012 at 8:09 pm

  49. Fiona

    Fair enough

    by victoria on May 25, 2012 at 8:09 pm

  50. fiona
    The sad thing is, whatever your own evil speculation may be, the reality is probably worse.

    by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on May 25, 2012 at 8:11 pm

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