Morgan face-to-face: 58-42 to Coalition; Seat of the week: Eden-Monaro
The latest Morgan face-to-face poll, conducted last week from a sample of 893, shows a slight improvement for Labor, up 1.5% to 32% on the primary vote with the Coalition down half a point to 45.5% and the Greens down 1.5% to 10.5%. This translates into a one point improvement on the respondent-allocated two-party preferred measure, from 59-48 to 58-42, and a half-point improvement on the previous election method, down from 55.5-44.5 to 55-45.
UPDATE (28/5/12): Essential Research has Labor losing one of the points on two-party preferred it clawed back over previous weeks, the result now at 57-43. Primary votes are 50% for the Coalition (up one), 33% for Labor (steady) and 10% for the Greens (steady). Other questions gauged views on the parties’ respective “attributes”, with all negative responses for Labor (chiefly “divided” and “will promise anything to win votes”) rating higher than all positives, and the Liberal Party doing rather better, rating well for “moderate” and “understands the problems facing Australia”. Bewilderingly, only slightly more respondents (35%) were willing to rate the state of the economy as “good” than “bad” (29%), with 33% opting for neither, although 43% rated the position of their household satisfactory against 28% unsatisfactory.
In today’s installment of Seat of the Week, it’s everybody’s favourite:
Seat of the week: Eden-Monaro
Taking in the south-eastern corner of New South Wales, including Queanbeyan, Cooma, Tumut and the coast from Batemans Bay south to Eden and the Victorian border, Eden-Monaro is renowned throughout the land as the seat that goes with the party who wins the election. Until 2007 its record as a bellwether was in fact surpassed by Macarthur, which had gone with the winning party at every election since its creation in 1949, but while Eden-Monaro stayed true to form by being among the seven New South Wales seats to switch to Labor with the election of the Rudd government, Liberal member Pat Farmer held on in Macarthur. The seat bucked the statewide trend in 2010 by recording a 2.0% swing to Labor, in what was very likely a vote of confidence in the popular local member, Mike Kelly.
Perhaps explaining its bellwether status, Eden-Monaro offers something of a microcosm of the state at large, if not the entire country. It incorporates suburban Queanbeyan, rural centres Cooma and Bega, coastal towns Eden and Narooma, and agricultural areas sprinkled with small towns. Labor’s strongest area is the electorate is the Canberra satellite town of Queanbeyan, excluding its Liberal-leaning outer suburb of Jerrabomberra. The coastal areas, which swung particularly heavily to Labor in 2007, can be divided between a finely balanced centre and areas of Liberal strength at the northern and southern extremities, respectively around Batemans Bay and Merimbula. The smaller inland towns are solidly conservative, but Cooma is highly marginal. The area covered by the electorate has been remarkably little changed over the years: it has been locked into the state’s south-eastern corner since federation, and its geographic size has remained fairly consistent as increases in the size of parliament cancelled out the effects of relative population decline. Outside of the interruption from 2007 and 2010, when it expanded westwards to Tumut and Tumbarumba, its boundaries since 1998 have been almost identical to those it had before 1913.
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Categories: Federal Election 2013, Federal Politics 2010-
It was not only less affluent -parts of the North Shore still had septic tanks in the early 70s.
Until about 15 – 20 years ago, the Pyrmont area of inner Sydney was not connected either – it just flowed untreated into Sydney Harbour. A massive sewerage infrastructure had to be put in to support the recent massive development.
by blackburnpseph on May 26, 2012 at 9:57 am
premature encapsulation then
by The Finnigans on May 26, 2012 at 9:58 am
Zoomster @ 2495
Probably quite true. Best to go equipped with plenty of water and fuel, a satellite phone, and good car repair skills.
by blackburnpseph on May 26, 2012 at 9:59 am
Caaaaaaaaaaa-ney….
Labor is guilty of “Politics With Intent To Govern”.
It’s apparently a very serious offence, a clear violation of the Carney “Labor Is Always Bad and Grubby” Act, 2006 (as amended 2007, 2010 and just about every weekend thereafter).
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/gillard-paying-price-for-gamble-on-the-numbers-20120525-1za9o.html#ixzz1vvaXskwR
He dismisses over three hundred pieces of legislation that Labor wanted, balancing them against one or two they they to agree with the Independents to pass so they could get all the other stuff through.
He tells us that Slipper is her problem. He omits to tell us that if Abbott had won the election, Slipper would have remained the Coalition’s problem.
It’s all “problems” to Carney. The achievements of government under a hung parliament are faffed-off by the patrician rose-water sniffer as merely some kinds of incidental, illusory saving graces, that are opposed, weakly, to the enormity and infamy of passing watered down poker machine legislation.
In case Shaun didn’t notice: Wilkie is better disposed to the government nowadays. The Clubs are quieter. The Labor back bench is more settled. The poker machine legislation passed the house last week (where the old version would not have passed the house in any week). Gilliard is still PM. The government is still in government. The Carbon Tax is about to start showing the punters that the world isn’t going to go up in a puff of soot…. one is reminded of a herd of BISONS.
The downside?
The polls are bad.
Carney, in his elegant, mannered way, is the same as the Coalition, their urgers at News and the bogan shock jocks with their rednecked caller mates. He just can’t get over the fact that as a government, this government has governed, and governed pretty effectively.
The cock-ups that usually remain behind closed doors have admittedly been made more public (aided by a media that regards paying prostitutes and trawling through Otto bins as a noble enterprise). Cock-ups, there have been, of course, but it is wrong for Carney to dismiss the vast body of solid legislation and governance as mere asides to an imagined main game of dysfunction and …. oh, the horror! …. political deal making.
Politicians do politics. They do deals. They govern in the best way they can, with the cards they are dealt, not the cards that previous governments were dealt.
Carney’s main gripe (although he’d never admit it) is the same as that of the most rednecked caller to the Hadley show: he’s a sore loser.
And he’s worried that things are going to get better.
As Megalogenis puts it: why would he be wailing so loud now, if he was so sure of victory in just a few short monhs?
by Bushfire Bill on May 26, 2012 at 10:01 am
Jackol @ 1.22am
And at 9.55am, funnily enough the spelling is corrected but nor the error about “minister” is still there.
Is the SMH making a challenge for the “Alan Kohler never-let-the-facts-stand-in-the-way-of-a-good-yarn Memorial Award”?
Either quality control is very poor or the SMH is peddling a lie with a political agenda. With a poor quality product like this, little wonder the FXJ stock price is wallowing at all time lows
by Laocoon on May 26, 2012 at 10:02 am
My family (incl me and sister) migrated here from Holland in ’57.
If there is work grab it, don’t sit and whyne that it is far away!
by political animal on May 26, 2012 at 10:02 am
Musiekemp:
Sorry for your loss. I recently watched an uncle die in exactly the same way. I was comforted by the fact that he died peacefully and pain free.
by confessions on May 26, 2012 at 10:02 am
Muskiemp,
Condolences to you and your family.
by fiona on May 26, 2012 at 10:04 am
Victoria
North Korea ..or so we are told.
But your point is valid, there is a pervading cynicism toward our political leaders – it could be the pervasiveness of media, it could be the blurring of ideological lines (I would exempt the US fromtaht category), it could be the ‘professionalisation’ of a political caste. Possibly, as we are allmore educated, we are all more sceptical – the role of political parties in defining identity and their bases have also shrunk.
by blackburnpseph on May 26, 2012 at 10:05 am
Listening to SEN sports radio. Dr Turf who is a commentator and identity in Melbourne said that News Ltd will be shedding 400 jobs Australia wide. He said this is huge, but does not believe it will be reported extensiely.
by victoria on May 26, 2012 at 10:06 am
Muskiemp
My condolences. It was good your Mother had her family with her.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on May 26, 2012 at 10:06 am
I’ve been through that with my own Mum, Muskiemp. It’s a shattering experience for those who sit and wait, but like yours, my mother’s passing was peaceful. She was 90.
Many condolences.
by Bushfire Bill on May 26, 2012 at 10:08 am
Good Morning
Thay GetUp! Pokie Advert
http://media.smh.com.au/national/selections/the-ad-the-major-tv-networks-banned-3321515.html
by guytaur on May 26, 2012 at 10:08 am
Did it? I completely missed that.
by confessions on May 26, 2012 at 10:09 am
Muskiemp, my condolences to you and fam.
by political animal on May 26, 2012 at 10:09 am
BB @ 2450
A brilliant little slice of the utterly transformative potential of the NBN. There simply is no excuse for not being on board with it. The cost is peanuts compared to some of the things we spend billions on. We can’t know what the new industries that will be developed thanks to a universal high speed communications system will be any more than someone in the mid 1800s could have predicted what would come of universal electricity networks, but we can be certain that it will be at the centre of our lives and economy in the decades to come.
by ratsak on May 26, 2012 at 10:09 am
Political Animal,
Congratulations to the parents, and to all interested parties!
And thank you for reminding me about “The Outcasts of Foolgarah” – I must hunt up a copy and reread.
BB @ 2450,
Your “guru” customer sounds as though 150 years ago he would have been an ardent supporter of the Locomotive Acts:
After all, those demned new-fangled contraptions don’t have any real future, hrrrumph.
by fiona on May 26, 2012 at 10:11 am
Muskiemp
Condolences to you and yours
by victoria on May 26, 2012 at 10:11 am
Yes it was good that Mother did have her Daughter, Son grand children and great grand children at various times during the weekend. One of her grand sons was at her bedside, keeping vigilance in the early hours of Tuesday morning, when she dyed.
by Muskiemp on May 26, 2012 at 10:12 am
Last week I mentioned bus services that had been cut by Ballieu in my locality. 10.00 news reported that my local state Member together with residents are walking the route of one of the bus services cut this morning in protest. They want fallieu to reinstate these services. As an aside, the services have been cut in Labor stronghold areas.
by victoria on May 26, 2012 at 10:14 am
Muskiekemp
We all die eventually. The best we can hope for is to go peacefully. So your mother managed the best possible. May we all be so lucky.
My Condolences to you and yours.
by guytaur on May 26, 2012 at 10:15 am
Muskiemp
My best wishes to you at a difficult time – take care!
by MTBW on May 26, 2012 at 10:16 am
Talking about dunnies. I grew up in the remote outback where the norm was an iron structure over a deep pit. At the rail siding at Abminga (SA) there was a hotel which sported a six-seater dunny (unisex at that) and I remember as a child imagining all six seats being occupied and what the conversation might be!
In Alice Springs there was the night cart system and it could be quite amusing to see someone come scurrying out of the dunny when the nightcart pulled up to change the pan, or to hear the tales of those visitors who didn’t know the routine and were caught by a blast of air on the bare bum as the pan was whipped out from under them.
In Darwin, there were the ‘flaming furies’ that were set alight every sunday evening. Lines and lines of huffing and puffing as the plumes of black smoke filled the air, and the long wait for the dunny seat to cool down enough afterwards.
by janice2 on May 26, 2012 at 10:17 am
Further to my earlier comment that 400 jobs would go in News ltd, Dr Turf said that newspaper circulation is taken a huge nose dive and will continue to do so. Said that 400 staff is a significant amount of people.
If News ltd is going down this path, what hope does fairfax have.
by victoria on May 26, 2012 at 10:18 am
Grrrrrr…….son has decided to play football today, against medico advice!!!!
by victoria on May 26, 2012 at 10:19 am
I recall what we used to call, as kids, ‘The shit can man.’
by Boerwar on May 26, 2012 at 10:21 am
victoria
Fairfax has more hope than NewsLtd. Fairfax has always been for quality. It is quality that will survive. Just look at Crikey. Quality people are willing to pay for. So it will be for Fairfax. So it will not be for News Corp papers tabloid papers world wide.
by guytaur on May 26, 2012 at 10:22 am
guytaur
Fairfax is losing more money than News. The herald Sun is this best selling paper here in Vic, purely because of its sports reportage. The Age comes nowhere close to the Herald sun
by victoria on May 26, 2012 at 10:24 am
Muskiemp
My condolences. It can be hard to do but, if my similar experience of sitting by Mum for the same time is anything to go by, it is a good thing to do – for your Mum and also for yourself and family.
Best wishes over the next little while.
by Boerwar on May 26, 2012 at 10:24 am
Perhaps the news ltd staff can seek what with Ms Gina. Would save her the trouble of needing to use all the visas
by victoria on May 26, 2012 at 10:26 am
A recent article – which I linked to here – outlined that the NBN would more than cover its costs threefold.
Once, by the improvement to health services. (One of the issues which comes up every year when local health users are surveyed is the need for transport and the cost of it. Interestingly, the conversation is shifting towards how the NBN can replace transport. And that’s only one area in which there’ll be savings to health).
Twice, by its ability to monitor, in real time, energy usage. At present, energy generation (as I understand it) is largely predictive – they THINK there’ll be an increase in demand, so they fire up the generators. They THINK demand is slowing, so they close them down.
Real time monitoring of energy usage will smooth out the problems this creates.
Thirdly, by replacing the copper network, which is getting increasingly more expensive to maintain as it ages.
And that’s without considering:
Telecommuting – if even 5% of our present workforce telecommuted (even part time) that would create huge savings on road maitenance, fuel emissions etc etc.
Education – again, if students can access classes remotely, this would see fewer buses on the roads (as students wouldn’t have to change schools to access their curriculum needs), fewer teachers (sorry. But it would save money), wider curriculum offerings to students (and thus a higher likelihood of them taking up courses at a higher level) etc etc.
And other savings: for example, we’re currently setting up a small business, based on my husband designing and building motorhomes from scratch.
To do this, he uses engines and gearboxes retrieved from wrecked cars bought at auction.
To attend an auction, he has to drive to Melbourne (7 hour round trip) and there’s no guarantee that he will be able to purchase the required car if he does so.
With the NBN, he doesn’t have to go anywhere – and he can access auctions not just in Melbourne but throughout Australia.
by zoomster on May 26, 2012 at 10:26 am
Victoria,these bus services were reorgansied because of the opening of the South Morang train extension – promised if you recall by the previous government in 1999 – and only brought on by them close to the 2010 election. However, that is not to say that lots have been inconvenienced by the withdrawal of the bus services. Both sides are guilty for losing the plot on service extension.
Except that the ALP built a tram extension to Vermont South that very few people seem to use.
by blackburnpseph on May 26, 2012 at 10:27 am
‘The Australian’ continues its war against the AGW today. It is on the attack against the ABC (and the BBC – as you would) for getting AGW wRONg.
This is done with a complete lack of any sense of irony. The Deltoid blog side now has over 80 detailed examples of ‘The Australian’s’ war on science.
by Boerwar on May 26, 2012 at 10:28 am
Phillip Hudson outlines some key dates:
A leadership change between May and August would be lunacy and he’s included that speculation to fit the Herald Sun’s agenda. End of October to November would be the ideal time
by spur212 on May 26, 2012 at 10:28 am
oops what – work
by victoria on May 26, 2012 at 10:28 am
Death should be a happy occasion. i told my family i want plenty of singing at my funerals. Happy, joyful, soulful or sad songs, i dont care. he he he, i am dead so why should i care.
The sufferings or pain to death, if any, that’s the sad part.
by The Finnigans on May 26, 2012 at 10:28 am
After reading the editorial yesterday I regret signing up again. I wont be fooled twice.
by Ian on May 26, 2012 at 10:29 am
victoria
The Age needs to remember it is a quality Newspaper and it does not have the rivers of gold anymore. The Herald Sun sell as you say as a sports paper that has some news.
The Age needs to shed old generation journos and go with new vibrant ones willing to change with the new world. That means no Grattan and others writing opinion pieces that are basically a load of BS and most know it. Instead they need to return to quality journalism.
This way they will survive. Their circulation will be greatly reduced but they have a bad business model trying for a mass market. Those days for the Age are gone. Those readers are on the internet getting their news. They have to do similar to Crikey and have good quality journalism people are willing to pay for.
by guytaur on May 26, 2012 at 10:29 am
janice2
Apparently the unisex multi seat dunny was a feature of the French court at Versailles.
Parties of men and women would decamp together after meals.
Interesting to imagine all those expensively dressed exquisites in all their finery spending quality time together!!!
by zoomster on May 26, 2012 at 10:30 am
Bbp
It is not just services in the South Morang area. Services in Greensborough have been cut. I have spoken to people directly involved with the new South Morang station. One word bedlam
by victoria on May 26, 2012 at 10:31 am
The snowy and tehyfro scheme was built by the italians and tne polish,
even then some born aust. Refused togo there
by my say on May 26, 2012 at 10:31 am
Ian
I got a subscription to Crikey this time around, and I regret it too
by victoria on May 26, 2012 at 10:31 am
Highs and lows for PBers today.
Congratulations PA for your new addition.
Commiserations Mukiemp for your sad loss – although a tremendous innings and a life and lifetime of memories to be celebrated.
Another topic. HELP!!
Any PBer electricians?
Power has been out from yesterday arvo (lucky you lot not having to put with me) and finally been restored.
But no power points on one side of the house functioning. Power company says bad luck, we don’t fix those. Your expense, although demarcatingly?? if said outage caused an appliance to be fried that was connected to one of those power points then a claim could be made to replace the appliances at the power company’s expense.
Questions:
Would it be a blown fuse?
if so, is it possible to fix it without the expense of an electrician?
or is that illegal?
by kezza2 on May 26, 2012 at 10:32 am
Kezza2
My son is an apprentice electrician, but he has gone out now to play footy. So I cant ask him for advice. I am so mad with him. Doctor said he was not to play following accident yesterday where he got whiplash.
by victoria on May 26, 2012 at 10:35 am
Finn—I attended funeral of someone who had been an employee, She didn’t quite make 60 but decreed that after the funeral there would be a birthday party so we ate birthday cake and sang Happy Birthday in the funeral parlor
by political animal on May 26, 2012 at 10:36 am
Ian
Crikey remains quality. I want it to survive. I have many problems with it. However it is still up there at the top of the Pyramid in terms of quality. Much more informative and accurate than most publications available. I hope you have told Crikey your concerns.
Given the resource Crikey has I think it does a good job.
by guytaur on May 26, 2012 at 10:36 am
The Mining Industry is an export industry, almost 100%. So why it hasnt complained & jumping up & down about the high AUD. #justasking
by The Finnigans on May 26, 2012 at 10:37 am
Dunny man
Shit can man
Night soil man
… and there’s my great-grandmother’s euphemism: the honey cart man.
by fiona on May 26, 2012 at 10:37 am
spur212 post @ 533
by the dates newstld is giving , its all over for Abbott/newsltd after july 1
by Meguire Bob on May 26, 2012 at 10:38 am
Abbott’s gone once the price on carbon is in place and it’s entrenched for a couple of months regardless of whether he becomes PM or not.
Don’t confuse that with the ALP will win the election if they get past July 1st. The public’s view of Gillard is very firm now and I fail to see how the PM’s going to turn it round from here. For a long time, I thought the PM would be able to do it, but now I know it’s too late. Needed clean air between April and July. Not her fault, but it’s the way it goes.
by spur212 on May 26, 2012 at 10:38 am