Morgan face-to-face: 58-42 to Coalition; Seat of the week: Eden-Monaro
The latest Morgan face-to-face poll, conducted last week from a sample of 893, shows a slight improvement for Labor, up 1.5% to 32% on the primary vote with the Coalition down half a point to 45.5% and the Greens down 1.5% to 10.5%. This translates into a one point improvement on the respondent-allocated two-party preferred measure, from 59-48 to 58-42, and a half-point improvement on the previous election method, down from 55.5-44.5 to 55-45.
UPDATE (28/5/12): Essential Research has Labor losing one of the points on two-party preferred it clawed back over previous weeks, the result now at 57-43. Primary votes are 50% for the Coalition (up one), 33% for Labor (steady) and 10% for the Greens (steady). Other questions gauged views on the parties’ respective “attributes”, with all negative responses for Labor (chiefly “divided” and “will promise anything to win votes”) rating higher than all positives, and the Liberal Party doing rather better, rating well for “moderate” and “understands the problems facing Australia”. Bewilderingly, only slightly more respondents (35%) were willing to rate the state of the economy as “good” than “bad” (29%), with 33% opting for neither, although 43% rated the position of their household satisfactory against 28% unsatisfactory.
In today’s installment of Seat of the Week, it’s everybody’s favourite:
Seat of the week: Eden-Monaro
Taking in the south-eastern corner of New South Wales, including Queanbeyan, Cooma, Tumut and the coast from Batemans Bay south to Eden and the Victorian border, Eden-Monaro is renowned throughout the land as the seat that goes with the party who wins the election. Until 2007 its record as a bellwether was in fact surpassed by Macarthur, which had gone with the winning party at every election since its creation in 1949, but while Eden-Monaro stayed true to form by being among the seven New South Wales seats to switch to Labor with the election of the Rudd government, Liberal member Pat Farmer held on in Macarthur. The seat bucked the statewide trend in 2010 by recording a 2.0% swing to Labor, in what was very likely a vote of confidence in the popular local member, Mike Kelly.
Perhaps explaining its bellwether status, Eden-Monaro offers something of a microcosm of the state at large, if not the entire country. It incorporates suburban Queanbeyan, rural centres Cooma and Bega, coastal towns Eden and Narooma, and agricultural areas sprinkled with small towns. Labor’s strongest area is the electorate is the Canberra satellite town of Queanbeyan, excluding its Liberal-leaning outer suburb of Jerrabomberra. The coastal areas, which swung particularly heavily to Labor in 2007, can be divided between a finely balanced centre and areas of Liberal strength at the northern and southern extremities, respectively around Batemans Bay and Merimbula. The smaller inland towns are solidly conservative, but Cooma is highly marginal. The area covered by the electorate has been remarkably little changed over the years: it has been locked into the state’s south-eastern corner since federation, and its geographic size has remained fairly consistent as increases in the size of parliament cancelled out the effects of relative population decline. Outside of the interruption from 2007 and 2010, when it expanded westwards to Tumut and Tumbarumba, its boundaries since 1998 have been almost identical to those it had before 1913.
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Categories: Federal Election 2013, Federal Politics 2010-
Meguire
On current polling (and the Qld election results) Labor will lose 4-6 of its current seats. It needs to pick up therefore at least 4 seats elsewhere – I think Windsor will hold but not Oakshott.
Now I think on balance Katter would ally with the Coalition not Labor so potentially Abbott could find himself in a coalition too if Labor did reasonably well but did not get government.
by daretotread on May 26, 2012 at 4:59 pm
Lets see-
Hayden was replaced despite being well in front of PM Fraser…
Hawke was replaced despite having won four elections…
Rudd was replaced despite haven beaten Howard & having seen of two other Liberal leaders since…
Gillard is the most useless, despised, loathed, ridiculed ‘leader’ imaginable – her days are numbered, and good riddance.
by Fargo61 on May 26, 2012 at 4:59 pm
OPT
Sounds dreadful. Soon the seabed will be forked too. What a wonderful world.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on May 26, 2012 at 5:00 pm
My understanding is that you won’t be voting for your side. Or will you?
by Gary on May 26, 2012 at 5:00 pm
Hey Mr David.
Just a supposition, if Labor relpaced Gillard for Rudd and assuming that the Fibs keep RAbbott, would the Labors vote improve nth of the Tweed ?
by Mick Collins on May 26, 2012 at 5:00 pm
Gary:
On this, you and I can (finally) agree! We cannot predict more than a decade of Liberal rule at this point in time.
by Mod Lib on May 26, 2012 at 5:00 pm
Gary if Abbott becomes PM I expect him to be a one term PM. The sacking of Rudd I his first term threw normal election cycles into confusion which will take a while to wash through.
by davidwh on May 26, 2012 at 5:02 pm
davidwh @ 2991
Good afternoon comrade. How is your wonderful mum?
Yes, it takes a rare talent for any political leader to be less popular than Tony Abbott. JG has truly distinguished herself.
And you are right, many (not sure if it is most) here at PB are totally oblivious to the bleeding obvious.
by bemused on May 26, 2012 at 5:03 pm
Sorta like how Faillieu is likely to be only a one-term Premier ?
by Mick Collins on May 26, 2012 at 5:03 pm
dwh
Don’t kid yourself. He’ll be there for a decade – another decade of dragging the chain on AGW action.
by Boerwar on May 26, 2012 at 5:04 pm
All this Lib hubris is clouding the air, it is time I went off and made a cuppa.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on May 26, 2012 at 5:04 pm
Boewwar 2929
______
My ref to St Vinny’s..perhaps a bit flippant…was to that side of the Brotherhood’s involvement in social work with the many poor in Egypt..whom ,like St Vinny’s it assists
.
This is common in many islamic countries …I recall visitng a huge Mosque in Istabul and being shown a whole wing devoted to social welfare concerns…and that is an ancient
building…a bit like the monasteries in medieval Europe
The Brotherhood has a poliitical agenda which of course St Vinny’s does not
…though several years ago there was a curious alliance at a UN Conf in Cairo when the representatives of conservative islamist groups allied them selves with the Vatican reps on matters like abortion and woman’s rights. and gay marriage …no surprise there I quess…Cardinal Pell and the old men in the Vatican are as conservative as the Brotherhood on many issues…have no doubt about that,,,and no great history of being devotees to democracy either.eg Franco Spain
by deblonay on May 26, 2012 at 5:04 pm
Very clever. I won’t predict who is going to win the next election. We don’t agree on that.
by Gary on May 26, 2012 at 5:04 pm
OPT:
Ah yes Nauru, and the coalition’s sudden whimsical attachment to it and its government.
Our so called media never bothered to check out those links with any forensic investigation, and so another potential dodgy deal of Abbott’s goes by without notice.
by confessions on May 26, 2012 at 5:04 pm
Fargo61
Welcome, it’s good to see
Another mindless regurgitator of msm-bs
You join an illustrious club.
Those who can’t think for themselves.
by kezza2 on May 26, 2012 at 5:05 pm
bemused
Yes agree. However some things just take time to put in place. Some things have to wait their turn in the queue. An example there is the High Speed Trains that the Greens want. Labor is doing it. It has to wait for feasability studies and the rest. Hopefully we will see a sod turning at the election campaign and not just the announcement of one.
The catch up of twelve wasted years by Howard takes a long time.
by guytaur on May 26, 2012 at 5:06 pm
Without predicting it, I think there is every chance.
by Gary on May 26, 2012 at 5:06 pm
Right now, its a toss up between Gillard, informal then Abbott (in that order), but Gillard is doing her level best to change that plan every day!
by Mod Lib on May 26, 2012 at 5:07 pm
Mick I think Rudd would give Labor a kick in QLD but can’t say if it would be enough.
by davidwh on May 26, 2012 at 5:08 pm
thanks ruawake @ 2997
by Meguire Bob on May 26, 2012 at 5:09 pm
And if Gillard is still leader the ALP will probably only win 1 senate seat in at least two states at the next election (One of them being Queensland).
by Fargo61 on May 26, 2012 at 5:09 pm
It’s people like yourself that give me hope that if Abbott does become PM he will be a oncer as DavidWh predicts.
by Gary on May 26, 2012 at 5:09 pm
Am I living in a parallel universe, the Minister for Immigration announces the first Enterprise Migration Agreement, a major step forward in major resource project management and somehow this is a reason for a leadership change?
What happened to Thomson and Slipper? I guess they have a get out of jail free card because the lunatics have moved on to attacking good policy resulting in good outcomes.
by ruawake on May 26, 2012 at 5:10 pm
Kezza
This is a POLLING site. I irealize that many here want to turn it into an ALP groupie chat line but I come here for discussion on polling and electoral matters
I see no use whatever in PRETENDING that things are good. How on earth can you fix it if you do not know it is broken. Think of it like AA – you first need to acknowledge that there is a problem before you can get better.
The mind numbing stupidity and ostrich behavior of most on this blog is dispiriting because I assume that this is where the smarter mob are. With you lot so blind what are the rest like.
Going into denial and saying everything is great will not work I AM IN QLD FFS. Look what bloody well happened. You lot down south are just sticking your heads in the sand hoping that it will go away.
As an ALP member I am afraid – very bloody afraid that the mob of idiots in Caucus and factions are about to DESTROY the ALP. Here in Qld the ALP barely has party status. It could well find itself as a minor party if it does not get its act together.
So stop guving gratuitous advice and use your brain
by daretotread on May 26, 2012 at 5:10 pm
daretoread @ 3000
i dont think katter will ally the coalition if abbott is the leader, katter wont even support abbott in a no confidence vote to put him in government
if the liberal party had a new leader , yes katter would ally the coaltion
by Meguire Bob on May 26, 2012 at 5:11 pm
Maybe what he’d win on the swings he’d lose on the roundabout.
by Gary on May 26, 2012 at 5:11 pm
bemused
And off you go again with jissing on julia.
Be proud, to be hand in fist with Coalition club.
But, hey, you’re in good company,
In league with DTT says it all.
You, too, should resign from the ALP.
by kezza2 on May 26, 2012 at 5:11 pm
Gary:
Its not people like me the ALP need to worry about actually, its people like the other 10 million voters out there who have sent a pretty clear and consistent message about their views, and the LNP caucus. Why? Because if they changed leaders, then all hell is going to break out on the ALP vote.
by Mod Lib on May 26, 2012 at 5:12 pm
Speaking of Slipper, when is all that selacious gossip concerning Ashby going to come to the fore ?
by Mick Collins on May 26, 2012 at 5:12 pm
Im seriously in danger of voting informal for the first time in my life. It gdepends on what happens between now and then. I can’t in all good conscience help elect Abbott next PM.
by davidwh on May 26, 2012 at 5:12 pm
guytaur @ 3015
High speed trains should be well down on the list of railway improvements.
The best thing to do first is to upgrade freight rail to a reasonable speed to get it off the Hume Hwy and other highways.
Greens can want all they like. Very Fast Trains are a long way off in Australia except maybe Sydney to Newcastle, Woollongong and the new airport.
by bemused on May 26, 2012 at 5:12 pm
Mod Lib
At the moment most Australians will just support anyone who isn’t Gillard, EVEN bloody Tony Abbott.
Bingo.
Mod Lib trying to get Labor to panic. Won’t work and too late. Why not talk policy? Oh, your side doesn’t have any it dares to mention?
Only way to win, get past 1/7 then start selling the reforms. Many are excellent, pretty much all are good.
by political animal on May 26, 2012 at 5:12 pm
ruawake:
Thomson turned out not to be the gift the coalition were expecting, and so now it’s back to Ruddstoration crap.
I agree with you; there are some people who just can’t see the wood for the trees.
by confessions on May 26, 2012 at 5:13 pm
d
I acknowledge that one of the strengths of anti-government islamic movements in various countries is that they engage in direct action social support of the kind often lacking because of governmental corruption, poor prioritisation or lack of revenue or lack of revenue. (In both Kuwait and Saudi Arabia the governments use similar systems – they have the moolah to do so.)
Since the West has had somewhat of a habit of systematically supporting the status quo of many a corrupt, venal, incompetent and repressive regime, we should not be surprised when the West gets blowback.
by Boerwar on May 26, 2012 at 5:13 pm
Only if the opinion polls let people decide on the coalition policies
then the coalition supporters would be singing a different tune
, if the opinion polls did poll on the coalitions policies the result wouldnt look good for the coalition
by Meguire Bob on May 26, 2012 at 5:13 pm
Bingo!
by Mod Lib on May 26, 2012 at 5:13 pm
Tricot 2919…Re Bailleau in Vic _Trouble ahead for Libs
__________________
Further to your remarks re Big Ted…there’s a surprising article in The Oz today that is suggesting that the anxiety about him within the Vic Libs has reasched a point of talk about his replacement !!
Odd for The Oz to carry such a story Is it true ?? who knows with the Oz ??
I suspect that coming state polls will confirm his slippage in support…and he should be in a Honeymoon stage…but clearly not as we all can see and hear these days in Vic
He has angered TAFE teachers and students/nurses/public.Servants/farmers groups re closure of Ag Dept Offices in some towns , and now the Deaf community with his cuts
Bad going Ted !
I like the slogan…”Bailleau has brought back the DEAF penalty”
cutting stuff…and he won’t appear on Friday Night’s ABC Stateline..and they make a point each week of listing that..”for the seventh time”etc
by deblonay on May 26, 2012 at 5:13 pm
rua
Welcome to the alternate universe where very bad thing including poll results are Gillards fault nd will be rescued by Rudd. While everything ood gets ignored to make possibly thw worst opposition leader in all time look good. So yes you bet the media are suddenly ignoring Thomson and Slipper. Until they can find something negative for Gillard.
by guytaur on May 26, 2012 at 5:14 pm
The only reason why the coalition is ahead in the opinion polls
because of newsltd agenda wanting a regime change
people wouldnt be so gullible if the media was 50/50
BRING ON THE NEW MEDIA LAWS
by Meguire Bob on May 26, 2012 at 5:15 pm
I also think Abbott will only last one term as PM if elected.
The world is moving so fast now that the mere 3 years between elections feels like entirely new eras. Abbott is just too incompetent, divisive, and unpopular to be a long term Prime Minister.
Oh, and the Murdoch Empire will probably collapse in the next few years, so whatever deal he made with him will probably be void and he’ll lose the unquestioning support from the media.
Plus he’s not very popular with his colleagues, so if the voters won’t throw him out, the party will.
by Von Kirsdarke on May 26, 2012 at 5:16 pm
kezza2 @ 3026
Shut your foul mouth you idiot.
The first step to fixing any problem is to diagnose the cause.
The ONLY objective measure on this is polls. What they point to is blindingly obvious.
by bemused on May 26, 2012 at 5:16 pm
I believe it is. You’re talking about the next election. If we have Liberal supporters seeing through Abbott here imagine and unable to vote for him, if he gets in, how many swinging voters are going to freak at what this bloke does?
by Gary on May 26, 2012 at 5:16 pm
Clear numbers and clear graphs of the sort that should be scaring Mr Abbott witless:
http://climate.nasa.gov/
by Boerwar on May 26, 2012 at 5:17 pm
Let me try that again.
I believe it is. You’re talking about the next election. If we have Liberal supporters seeing through Abbott here and unable to vote for him, if he gets in, how many swinging voters are going to freak at what this bloke does?
by Gary on May 26, 2012 at 5:18 pm
Funnily Abbott accused the electorate of sleep walking into the 2007 elections, and now he expects us to do the same in the next election with the mantra
Gillaaard Baaad, Gillaaad Baaad, sounds like a scene from night of the zombies.
by Augustus on May 26, 2012 at 5:19 pm
bemused @ 3030
I see you gree with me.
by guytaur on May 26, 2012 at 5:20 pm
Personally, I think that the ALP should stick it out till at least September. Then, and only then, should they look at the polling and if they are still dire think about changing back to Rudd.
Bare in mind that Abbott may be the only option that the Fiberals have any way as LOTO. It might be why they haven’t ditched him yet.
by Mick Collins on May 26, 2012 at 5:20 pm
Dear kezza2,
After having voted for an ALP government at every election since my first in 1980, perhaps I am just now starting to think – and what I am thinking is that Gillard is the most useless PM in our history – again quite an achievement when ones considers John Gorton, Billy McMahon, and Stanley Melbourne Bruce.
It seems that you think that any one who disagrees with the Gillard group-think so popular here can’t think for themselves’. Well, I have a good laugh at the nonsense in the Australian most lunchtimes, but that changes nothing when it comes to the what I know about peoples reaction to Gillard – that she is a joke, and that she is despised, and that she is loathed.
With Gillard, 1975 will look pretty.
by Fargo61 on May 26, 2012 at 5:20 pm
Arrgghhh. Bloody virtual keyboard. That was agree with me.
by guytaur on May 26, 2012 at 5:21 pm
DTT
Give it up, will you.
You don’t have a clue about Victoria, even though you like telling us how it is.
When did you last live here?
Considering you have a lot to say about Sydney as well.
When did you last live there?
Your history of sewage treatment in Victoria was so much bullshit.
Try telling the people of Carrum – about the treatment plant that processes 40% of Melbourne’s waste since 1975 – that Melbourne’s sewage treatment is solely run through Werribee, for a start.
You are perceiving JG through a Qld lens.
You are a Griffith member.
You are perceiving Rudd through that lens.
Yet you pretend to be virtuous about the polls.
You know the msm has run an anti-Gillard agenda.
Do you filter that? No.
You don’t want to.
You prefer to tell us how the rest of us perceive JG.
We don’t see her like you do.
Because we are not enamoured with Rudd.
You are the one with your head in the sand re Rudd.
Do you get it?
I think not.
And you wonder why people don’t want to join Labor.
It’s people like you, frankly.
by kezza2 on May 26, 2012 at 5:21 pm