Morgan face-to-face: 58-42 to Coalition; Seat of the week: Eden-Monaro
The latest Morgan face-to-face poll, conducted last week from a sample of 893, shows a slight improvement for Labor, up 1.5% to 32% on the primary vote with the Coalition down half a point to 45.5% and the Greens down 1.5% to 10.5%. This translates into a one point improvement on the respondent-allocated two-party preferred measure, from 59-48 to 58-42, and a half-point improvement on the previous election method, down from 55.5-44.5 to 55-45.
UPDATE (28/5/12): Essential Research has Labor losing one of the points on two-party preferred it clawed back over previous weeks, the result now at 57-43. Primary votes are 50% for the Coalition (up one), 33% for Labor (steady) and 10% for the Greens (steady). Other questions gauged views on the parties’ respective “attributes”, with all negative responses for Labor (chiefly “divided” and “will promise anything to win votes”) rating higher than all positives, and the Liberal Party doing rather better, rating well for “moderate” and “understands the problems facing Australia”. Bewilderingly, only slightly more respondents (35%) were willing to rate the state of the economy as “good” than “bad” (29%), with 33% opting for neither, although 43% rated the position of their household satisfactory against 28% unsatisfactory.
In today’s installment of Seat of the Week, it’s everybody’s favourite:
Seat of the week: Eden-Monaro
Taking in the south-eastern corner of New South Wales, including Queanbeyan, Cooma, Tumut and the coast from Batemans Bay south to Eden and the Victorian border, Eden-Monaro is renowned throughout the land as the seat that goes with the party who wins the election. Until 2007 its record as a bellwether was in fact surpassed by Macarthur, which had gone with the winning party at every election since its creation in 1949, but while Eden-Monaro stayed true to form by being among the seven New South Wales seats to switch to Labor with the election of the Rudd government, Liberal member Pat Farmer held on in Macarthur. The seat bucked the statewide trend in 2010 by recording a 2.0% swing to Labor, in what was very likely a vote of confidence in the popular local member, Mike Kelly.
Perhaps explaining its bellwether status, Eden-Monaro offers something of a microcosm of the state at large, if not the entire country. It incorporates suburban Queanbeyan, rural centres Cooma and Bega, coastal towns Eden and Narooma, and agricultural areas sprinkled with small towns. Labor’s strongest area is the electorate is the Canberra satellite town of Queanbeyan, excluding its Liberal-leaning outer suburb of Jerrabomberra. The coastal areas, which swung particularly heavily to Labor in 2007, can be divided between a finely balanced centre and areas of Liberal strength at the northern and southern extremities, respectively around Batemans Bay and Merimbula. The smaller inland towns are solidly conservative, but Cooma is highly marginal. The area covered by the electorate has been remarkably little changed over the years: it has been locked into the state’s south-eastern corner since federation, and its geographic size has remained fairly consistent as increases in the size of parliament cancelled out the effects of relative population decline. Outside of the interruption from 2007 and 2010, when it expanded westwards to Tumut and Tumbarumba, its boundaries since 1998 have been almost identical to those it had before 1913.
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Categories: Federal Election 2013, Federal Politics 2010-
It is doing the opposite to Australia.
by Scarpat on May 27, 2012 at 12:12 am
http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/sunday-mail/lnp-arts-minister-ros-bates-caught-out-plagiarising-speech-by-labor-predecessor/story-e6frep2f-1226367908613
Gold!
by rummel on May 27, 2012 at 12:13 am
Schnappi@Schnappi5
Kevin Rudd supporters counting numbers http://shar.es/q5vAd via @sharethis what crap hack journalism if one can call it that
by Schnappi on May 27, 2012 at 12:14 am
Phark not Rudd again, the news is slow tonight so lets make shit up, time for the sheeple to ignore the MSM ans go to bed.
by Augustus on May 27, 2012 at 12:15 am
Place your bets
http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/political-news/gillard-facing-fresh-threat-20120526-1zc2r.html
by rummel on May 27, 2012 at 12:16 am
I bet my left one it’s bogas
by Augustus on May 27, 2012 at 12:18 am
I hope the news about Joel Fitzgibbon counting numbers is not true… yet.
Any such move would be premature.
Yes, Gillard has to go, but not yet.
by bemused on May 27, 2012 at 12:18 am
Its not futile in the sense that such speculation surely helps get the depressed poll results they want. Which then generates *more* of the crap.
by rishane on May 27, 2012 at 12:19 am
She hasn’t been mentored by Julie Bishop has she??
by imacca on May 27, 2012 at 12:19 am
Fitzgibbon is allegedly canvassing votes for Rudd already (I’d prefer he wait a couple of months, but clearly something has snapped)
http://www.smh.com.au/national/whip-rallies-the-rudd-troops-20120526-1zboz.html
Many people on here simply refuse to accept the reality. I got over it about three weeks ago. It was very painful. I felt sick in the stomach for about three days, but I now realise it’s just the way things are. There are firm beliefs about Gillard that aren’t going to be overcome in 16 months and you aren’t going to be able to effect a massive shift in the vote in Queensland or NSW without Rudd.
Abbott and the Coalition are still screwed regardless as the policy reality, election timing and senate maths will all be the same.
by spur212 on May 27, 2012 at 12:20 am
Don’t worry. Kevin needs about 16,000Km between himeself and Julia to have the courage to challenge. The time to start worrying is when Kevin leaves for the East Coast U.S. or Europe.
by Scarpat on May 27, 2012 at 12:22 am
2013 – The Centenary of Canberra.
Celebrating 100 years with the 28th or 29th PM of Australia.
by rummel on May 27, 2012 at 12:23 am
But, Rudd dumped Fitzgibbon, why?, it doesn’t make sense.
by Augustus on May 27, 2012 at 12:23 am
Scarpat @ 3711
Rudd won’t challenge. This is the beginning of a move to draft him and it comes from former Gillard supporters.
by bemused on May 27, 2012 at 12:24 am
Augustus @ 3713
Of course it makes sense. Survival.
And of course Fitzgibbon has done his penance and may hope to rise again.
by bemused on May 27, 2012 at 12:26 am
rummel
it’s Murdoch….. like believing Goebbels
by swamprat on May 27, 2012 at 12:27 am
bemused,
If Gillard is replaced it will be by somenone else than Rudd (unless Labor wants to start undoing its own policies).
by Scarpat on May 27, 2012 at 12:27 am
The only draught rudd gets would give him pneumonia
by Schnappi on May 27, 2012 at 12:28 am
The only draught rudd gets is XXXX.
by Scarpat on May 27, 2012 at 12:30 am
As someone mentioned in Hansard, I agree with you.
by ShowsOn on May 27, 2012 at 12:30 am
Scarpat @ 3717
That is just a stupid statement.
This is not about policy.
The policies you refer to were all initiated or foreshadowed under Rudd so you are saying he wants to undo the policies he formerly supported.
You have been listening too much to confessions and the other cultists who are totally detached from reality.
by bemused on May 27, 2012 at 12:31 am
He may shift votes in Queensland but not necessarily in NSW.
by Scarpat on May 27, 2012 at 12:32 am
A lot of the government’s policies are good, it is the leader who isn’t trusted.
For all of Rudd’s policy flaws he is the most popular MP Labor has in the federal parliament, so he needs to be the leader before the next election. Once he is leader, the Labor leadership will no longer be a serious issue of discussion, instead people’s attention will start to turn to Abbott who will actually have to start making some tough policy decisions.
by ShowsOn on May 27, 2012 at 12:33 am
Scarpat
Oh,thought he was the famous tea blend drinker,when not picking his nose.
by Schnappi on May 27, 2012 at 12:33 am
After Rudd resumes the leadership I am going to get so much enjoyment reading the mental gymnastics on PB.
by bemused on May 27, 2012 at 12:33 am
What did I say? There’d be something in the Sunday papers which got the sheep all worked up again.
It happens every weekend without fail.
by confessions on May 27, 2012 at 12:33 am
bemused,
Fair point, but in the ALP when you have been tapped usually that’s it, just don’t see it, maybe too much scottish barley water but, Fitzgibbon??
by Augustus on May 27, 2012 at 12:34 am
Scarpat
The HSU scandal has taken out Shorten, Combet, Crean and Swan. The only one left out that lot who isn’t Rudd is Smith and he simply doesn’t have the authority or the prescence to shift things. Plus, putting Smith or anyone else in the job would create a double injustice and institutionalise NSW disease. Returning to Rudd would be a repudiation of it.
by spur212 on May 27, 2012 at 12:35 am
so will i
by rummel on May 27, 2012 at 12:36 am
Conservative Neanderthals were beaten in the Survival of the Species Stakes by music-making progressives.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-18196349
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on May 27, 2012 at 12:36 am
Funny story about the Qld LNP minister’s plagiarism, but I notice things are kept well under control with a “but Labor is just as bad…” counterweight.
by BSA Bob on May 27, 2012 at 12:37 am
Andrew Probyn yesterday
http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/opinion/post/-/blog/13780334/thomson-inquiry-in-contempt/
Says the Thomson inquiry jumped the shark this week.
by confessions on May 27, 2012 at 12:37 am
In 2007, Labor got 53.68% in NSW, which was almost 1% 2pp better than the nation as a whole.
The primary vote was 44%! Those are numbers Gillard could only dream of.
Even if Rudd could only get a 1.5% uniform 2pp swing to Labor in NSW that would mean 4 seats.
by ShowsOn on May 27, 2012 at 12:38 am
Bemused,
I listen equally to Rudd cultists as yourself as much as I listen to the other cultists on PB. Rudd could get away with lowering the CP, for example, as he has no skin in the starting price since he walked away from his ‘greatest moral challenge’.
by Scarpat on May 27, 2012 at 12:39 am
In the leadership no one mentions Burke,personally think even fairfax are scared of him ,let alone Rupe the Dupe.
by Schnappi on May 27, 2012 at 12:40 am
ooohhhh, look over there…..shiny thing……leadership challenge………….
by imacca on May 27, 2012 at 12:40 am
No, it will feel good. It doesn’t feel right hearing G.G. defend the childless, atheist, unmarried Gillard while I defend the Christian geek named Rudd.
by ShowsOn on May 27, 2012 at 12:40 am
Changing leaders in govt, for the sake of winning an election, with no thought for policy, or what happens after the election is NSW disease.
by confessions on May 27, 2012 at 12:41 am
I fear the troubles are not who is leader. It goes much deeper. Despite many good policies the ALP seems to have lost its coherent ideology and commitment, I think. As a result too many elected MPs are there because of some sort of entitlement in some way. For example, look at some of the truly awful former MPs in NSW.
The current Commonwealth Government has many good policies but they are not part of a strong narrative about the nation. Certainly any form of democratic socialism has gone the way of “comrade”.
The Union Movement is no longer a suitable majority source of policy and MPs. I think the Party needs to become a national movement in some way that reinstates a proper critique of the current obsession with ‘mercantile’ capitalism and national identity )independence?).
by swamprat on May 27, 2012 at 12:41 am
Well actually what he said when he challenged was he thinks it should shift to a floating price sooner, i.e. in 1 or 2 years rather than 3. This is a decent idea that would make it harder for the opposition to keep calling it a tax.
It would also make it even harder for it to be repealed!
by ShowsOn on May 27, 2012 at 12:42 am
Yes that might deserve a thread of its own.
by mexicanbeemer on May 27, 2012 at 12:43 am
S.O.,
2012 is an entirely different ball game to that of 2007 however you may be right about a small swing. Methinks a clean skin would be a better option if there is to be a change.
by Scarpat on May 27, 2012 at 12:43 am
Tony abbott quotes someone else everyday,if ever asked he says someone else said it,think he plags himself.
by Schnappi on May 27, 2012 at 12:43 am
Um, that’s what political parties do, they try to win elections.
Going back to Rudd wouldn’t be NSW disease at all. In fact for many voters it would just be returning things to how they should’ve been.
by ShowsOn on May 27, 2012 at 12:43 am
Sorry, hit wrong button should end with “….and develop a strong national identity and social justice ideology”.
by swamprat on May 27, 2012 at 12:43 am
No, a cleanskin wouldn’t do any better than Gillard. Rudd is the only option. Going back to him would just be giving voters back what they voted for in 2007.
Labor either sticks with Gillard and almost certainly loses, or changes to Rudd and has a chance of winning. Going to a third candidate would just make the loss even more likely than having Gillard. And it would be a QLD style loss.
I just wanted to point out that in 2007 Rudd did even better in NSW than the rest of the country. And remember, his result in QLD was the best result federal Labor has had there for something like 70 years.
by ShowsOn on May 27, 2012 at 12:46 am
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-05-26/butler-charged-over-vatican-leaks/4035486
If convicted he faces a possible 30 year sentence. More than child abusing priests. Interesting.
by confessions on May 27, 2012 at 12:46 am
Scarpat @ 3734
I don’t know how many times people will have to be referred to the article by Possum that completely demolishes all this crap, but here it is again http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/2010/05/01/cowards_and_idiots/
I follow no personality cult, I simply want the person who has the best chance of securing a Labor victory to lead. Right now it happens to be KR.
by bemused on May 27, 2012 at 12:48 am
SO,
I understood the point that you are making but in spite of my not having been mentioned in Hansard, there is no way of going back to 2007.
by Scarpat on May 27, 2012 at 12:50 am
Confessions
That was a snide comment. Abusing priests are charged in other countries jurisdictions.
by swamprat on May 27, 2012 at 12:51 am