Morgan face-to-face: 58-42 to Coalition; Seat of the week: Eden-Monaro
The latest Morgan face-to-face poll, conducted last week from a sample of 893, shows a slight improvement for Labor, up 1.5% to 32% on the primary vote with the Coalition down half a point to 45.5% and the Greens down 1.5% to 10.5%. This translates into a one point improvement on the respondent-allocated two-party preferred measure, from 59-48 to 58-42, and a half-point improvement on the previous election method, down from 55.5-44.5 to 55-45.
UPDATE (28/5/12): Essential Research has Labor losing one of the points on two-party preferred it clawed back over previous weeks, the result now at 57-43. Primary votes are 50% for the Coalition (up one), 33% for Labor (steady) and 10% for the Greens (steady). Other questions gauged views on the parties’ respective “attributes”, with all negative responses for Labor (chiefly “divided” and “will promise anything to win votes”) rating higher than all positives, and the Liberal Party doing rather better, rating well for “moderate” and “understands the problems facing Australia”. Bewilderingly, only slightly more respondents (35%) were willing to rate the state of the economy as “good” than “bad” (29%), with 33% opting for neither, although 43% rated the position of their household satisfactory against 28% unsatisfactory.
In today’s installment of Seat of the Week, it’s everybody’s favourite:
Seat of the week: Eden-Monaro
Taking in the south-eastern corner of New South Wales, including Queanbeyan, Cooma, Tumut and the coast from Batemans Bay south to Eden and the Victorian border, Eden-Monaro is renowned throughout the land as the seat that goes with the party who wins the election. Until 2007 its record as a bellwether was in fact surpassed by Macarthur, which had gone with the winning party at every election since its creation in 1949, but while Eden-Monaro stayed true to form by being among the seven New South Wales seats to switch to Labor with the election of the Rudd government, Liberal member Pat Farmer held on in Macarthur. The seat bucked the statewide trend in 2010 by recording a 2.0% swing to Labor, in what was very likely a vote of confidence in the popular local member, Mike Kelly.
Perhaps explaining its bellwether status, Eden-Monaro offers something of a microcosm of the state at large, if not the entire country. It incorporates suburban Queanbeyan, rural centres Cooma and Bega, coastal towns Eden and Narooma, and agricultural areas sprinkled with small towns. Labor’s strongest area is the electorate is the Canberra satellite town of Queanbeyan, excluding its Liberal-leaning outer suburb of Jerrabomberra. The coastal areas, which swung particularly heavily to Labor in 2007, can be divided between a finely balanced centre and areas of Liberal strength at the northern and southern extremities, respectively around Batemans Bay and Merimbula. The smaller inland towns are solidly conservative, but Cooma is highly marginal. The area covered by the electorate has been remarkably little changed over the years: it has been locked into the state’s south-eastern corner since federation, and its geographic size has remained fairly consistent as increases in the size of parliament cancelled out the effects of relative population decline. Outside of the interruption from 2007 and 2010, when it expanded westwards to Tumut and Tumbarumba, its boundaries since 1998 have been almost identical to those it had before 1913.
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Categories: Federal Election 2013, Federal Politics 2010-
5083
By Green standards Milne is not left wing. At one point when she lead the Tasmanian Greens, they supported a minority Liberal Government (until it turned round and teemed up with the ALP to shrink the Parliament to hurt the Greens).
The NSW Greens do have a strong ex-hard left element (Riannon being the most prominent part thereof) but it is not strong in the other states.
by Tom the first and best on May 28, 2012 at 12:06 am
Confessions
Once again you seem to miss the point and read into comments what you want them to say, rather than what was actually said.
Hope you DO NOT do policy.
I said harder to empathise. That does not mean cannot do policy. Where in the name of rational thought did you get that idea.
Empathy is NOT policy?? What ids the connection between the two.
Indeed it COULD be argued that too much empathy may interfere with policy. (Oh and just in case it is not clear could mean could – it does not imply I am arguing that)
by daretotread on May 28, 2012 at 12:06 am
I’m having enough trouble convincing the Rudd cult, such as yourself who wants to define Labor’s policies as Rudd’s.
by Gary on May 28, 2012 at 12:07 am
Bemused 5086 Anyone fool can develop strategy, few actually implement successfully.
by Rossmore on May 28, 2012 at 12:08 am
bemused:
You remind me of that drunk on Father Ted who used to sit there belligerently demanding a drink despite the reality that was happening around him. And when people don’t give him a drink he name calls, verbally attacks people, even physically assaults people.
If I were you I’d rethink my MO.
by confessions on May 28, 2012 at 12:08 am
According to that poll by someone named Graham Young, Gillard is at 30% approval, 59% disapproval. Abbott is at 41% approval, 50% disapproval and the preferred PM is Abbott 53, Gillard 47.
I have no idea how they’ve got that 2PP figure as they’ve given no voting intention. I wouldn’t trust it. Here’s the link again
http://whatthepeoplewant.net/polls-blog/may-2012/may-poll-the-quarterly-quants.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+whatthepeoplewant+%28What+The+People+Want%29
by spur212 on May 28, 2012 at 12:08 am
Rossmore @ 5096
If you refer to my 5086, there is no sarcasm there, just fact. Care to name one serious policy of the current government that wasn’t either initiated or in the pipeline under Rudd’s leadership?
by bemused on May 28, 2012 at 12:10 am
Cult of Julia be stuffed! Julia has delivered, Rudd just waffled, sat on Henry Report for a year then announced a 40% SPRT just before the election. Labor was lucky to do as well a it did, achieving minority government. Rudd DID apologise for the HIP and sort-off demoted (i.e. publicly blamed) Garret.
Julia will do me.
by political animal on May 28, 2012 at 12:11 am
It would need the bipartisan recognition you refer to. The only reason people talk in positive terms today about Hawke/Keating reforms is because Howard and Costello talked them up towards the end of their term in office.
Would today’s Liberal party do the same with Rudd/Gillard GFC response in time? I can’t see it but stranger things have happened.
by confessions on May 28, 2012 at 12:12 am
Same old BS from Grattan.
http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/political-news/gillard-under-siege-again-20120527-1zd6c.html
by Gary on May 28, 2012 at 12:13 am
NDIS, Aged Care, Plain Packaging
by political animal on May 28, 2012 at 12:14 am
daretoread:
I’d be happy if you could just say what it is that you want to say rather than pontificate on stuff you clearly have no idea about.
If it helps, do dot points. But as it stands, your stream of consciousness waffle means nothing to me.
by confessions on May 28, 2012 at 12:15 am
Fair enough William. It’s your site and you can run it however you please. I’ll just continue to scroll past all the boring stuff about Rudd that I’ve heard a hundred times before.
And just while I have your attention, can you please explain why you haven’t responded to either of my requests to delete post 606. I think most of us here would consider it way beyond the pale and it puzzles me why you haven’t seen fit to do something about it. Surely it is against the rules under which we are all supposed to conduct ourselves.
by Darn on May 28, 2012 at 12:16 am
Bemused see my post 5103.
There’s no such thing as failed strategy, just failed implementation. When a leader loses the faith of most of his parliamentary colleagues you’ve got to ask – as many of his colleagues did – whether he is fit to lead. It’s happened twice now. He lacked leadership qualities. Get over it.
by Rossmore on May 28, 2012 at 12:16 am
Maybe when it has enough historical distance to be ‘safe’. It’d probably have to be under a leader less ruthlessly partisan than Abbott, too.
BTW, the SMH isn’t really worth reading today. Its just several varieties of Gillard is terrible/dysfunctional/a liar and everybody’s waiting for Kevin Rudd to come back.
by rishane on May 28, 2012 at 12:16 am
Rossmore @ 5103
Clearly you have no idea. Comparatively few people think strategically.
Is that so? Leaders certainly don’t do the detailed work, but they set the parameters.
by bemused on May 28, 2012 at 12:16 am
Night all.
by Rossmore on May 28, 2012 at 12:17 am
Plain packaging I think was in the pipeline under Rudd
Full marks on Aged care and NDIS – but in two years it is not a large collection.
by daretotread on May 28, 2012 at 12:18 am
confessions @ 5104
Hmmmm projection I think it is called. Are you drunk?
by bemused on May 28, 2012 at 12:18 am
Bemused: LOL
The poor Gillard luvies will be in for a rude awkening very soon, I fear that a return to Rudd will push a few people into the nearest psych ward.
by Thornleigh Labor Man on May 28, 2012 at 12:19 am
Tom
Correct, by Greens standards! IMHO the Greens are typical of any communist party and will align with whoever temporarily for their own benefit. There are certainly mainly well meaning Greens in the party and among people who vote for them but since, unlike me they haven’t followed the Greens voting patterns, their speeches inside and outside of Parliament, their and policies, I have to regard many of these poor souls as useful idiots in the service of the far left agenda. And there are a few on this site …. NO NAMES!!! Anyway my comments against the Greens were an aside to the point that of course they’ll back a new Labor leader and possibly try to extract support for death taxes or open borders from the new boy or girl. IMO the Greens are as dangerous as the far right, they’re extremists which btw is how Gillard, the hero of many on this blog, described them. She got that one right but still cuddled up to them.
by Mick77 on May 28, 2012 at 12:19 am
Amazing how people on here put their personal prejudices against their party achieving victory. I honestly don’t care who leads the ALP. Just so long as they beat the lunatic who’s leading the opposition.
Unless Gillard can turn things around in the next three months or so (and odds are that’s looking extremely unlikely), then all bets are off.
Still waiting for someone to tell me in a rational way how Gillard. proactively (meaning not waiting for Newman to do something or for people’s anger to somehow die down or for certain MP’s to stop allegedly white-anting the PM) is meant to turn things around in Queensland.
If you can’t answer this question, then I suggest you think a bit about how things actually are rather than how you wish them to be
by spur212 on May 28, 2012 at 12:21 am
Bemused
Spot on
I think perhaps that is at the core of the differences on PB.
Strategic thinkers are very rare. i value them. Which is why I support Rudd.
Implementers are common – essential yes but still not a rare skill.
Real leadership is even rarer.
by daretotread on May 28, 2012 at 12:21 am
Bemused not in my experience – good leaders do more than set parameters – they lead from the front, take the hard knocks, keeps the troops motivated, negotiate setbacks, keep smiling, never give up, hang in there, but always with an eye on the bigger picture and the broader strategy. Rudd was no leader. Gillard is.
by Rossmore on May 28, 2012 at 12:22 am
rishane:
We’ll see, but for as long as the Liberals look to the US for inspiration, I can’t see the GFC response ever being a bipartisan recognition.
by confessions on May 28, 2012 at 12:23 am
I felt it had a certain comedic value, Darn, on one level or another.
by William Bowe on May 28, 2012 at 12:23 am
DTT those are just a few things off the top of my head, there are many more policies then that.
William wants to turn this into Gilligans Island, will look here again after 1/7 because presently this is a crazy house—sorry William but I think there will be many more like me, already the post count is way down on only 2 weeks ago because Ruddstoration has driven people away, driven good posters away and Ruddstoration before 1/7 is the ultimate delusion.
by political animal on May 28, 2012 at 12:24 am
Sums up a few here: you can’t see the big picture for weekly polls you obsess over.
by confessions on May 28, 2012 at 12:24 am
Tosh.
by William Bowe on May 28, 2012 at 12:25 am
5120
The Greens 10% (for estates over $5 million) estate tax policy is not an extremist policy. It is comparatively week by the standards of most jurisdictions with estate taxes. The USA has a top estate tax rate of 35%.
The Greens are not at all the left-wing equivalent of the far right. Most of there policies are centre-left. It is just that economic policy of the old parties in Australia has shifted so far to the right that the Greens look left wing.
by Tom the first and best on May 28, 2012 at 12:26 am
Rossmore @ 5103
Absolute nonsense. History is littered with failed strategy.
Yes, even a good strategy can be undone by poor implementation. Implementation of Govt. Strategy (policies) falls largely on the Public Service.
Rudd was simply ambushed. Most MPs were completely unaware of what was going on and were gob-smacked. It was all stitched up by factional leaders.
Leadership is the current problem. Julia Gillard is not liked or trusted by the overwhelming majority of voters. The polls clearly indicate this.
by bemused on May 28, 2012 at 12:27 am
You got that totally backwards. Gillard is the departmental CEO but no leader of a country, and the PMs job is being the country’s leader, not just and administrator. Rudd was most certainly the leader.
by Thomas Paine. on May 28, 2012 at 12:27 am
Daretotread, strategic thinkers are a dime a dozen, think of the millions of patents out there unrealized and gathering dust. Great strategy and great Implementation skills are what is required for breakthru policy innovation – not either/or but both/and.
by Rossmore on May 28, 2012 at 12:27 am
Mick77 @ 5120
I am no friend of the Greens but you are totally over the top in your comments.
by bemused on May 28, 2012 at 12:29 am
dtt, from the substance if your argument, it seems to me that merely because you may lack imagination, you think everyone else, including confessions, suffers from the same affliction.
by briefly on May 28, 2012 at 12:29 am
Tom @ 5129
I disagree but then the Greens are an obsession of mine and I’ve read too much of what they’ve in doffernt forums about what they really stand for to believe that any good could ever come of going near them. A lot of LAbor’s troubles are because they’re tainted (and taunted) by the Greens connection. For now ‘nite
by Mick77 on May 28, 2012 at 12:30 am
Gillard’s taking credit for most of Rudd’s initiatives: response to global financial crisis, NBN, health reforms, BER, computers in schools etc.
Oh, and she originally didn’t want any sort of ETS or carbon price.
A leader she ain’t, she’s just the puppet of the factional Labor hacks.
by Thornleigh Labor Man on May 28, 2012 at 12:30 am
spur212:
I offered unity the other day. It’s only been 3 months since Rudd’s brain snap and leadership challenge. Three months after the 18mths of his deliberate destabilisation and whiteanting. Team building takes time.
Panicking now and changing leaders (AGAIN) would only serve to unsettle voters and signal that Labor isn’t a serious government, but a sideshow.
by confessions on May 28, 2012 at 12:30 am
Yes, but the whole point is that Rudd’s combination of ego/indecision and general management style wound up severely getting in the way of this implementation. Which is why its annoying when people just shrug it off as ‘oh, he was rude, but they deserved it!”.
by rishane on May 28, 2012 at 12:30 am
Rossmore @ 5123
Well clearly you don’t have much experience.
by bemused on May 28, 2012 at 12:31 am
Bemused re: Greens – let’s go over the statements and policies of the Greens tomorrow arvo and we’ll see if I can shock you into agreement with me! ‘Nite
by Mick77 on May 28, 2012 at 12:31 am
TP, Kevin Rudd is to leadership what Homer Simpson is to personal grooming.
by briefly on May 28, 2012 at 12:32 am
briefly:
Good to see you again. I only commented the other day as to your wellbeing, and how you were travelling.
I hope you are well.
by confessions on May 28, 2012 at 12:32 am
Bemused ‘Absolute nonsense. History is littered with failed strategy.’ that was precisely my point if you’d bothered toread the whole sentence. Rudd was a failed strategist. If he was a good leader he’d have seen the ambush in the eyes of his cabinet colleagues. He didn’t because he didn’t bother to even look. A weak excuse for a leader. Get over it.
by Rossmore on May 28, 2012 at 12:33 am
Rossmore
Um – patents are not strategies, they are inventions.
A strategy is a big picture idea, coupled with a sense of how to make it work
Strategic thinkers need to be very diverse, across many issues simultaneously and capable of making many, many lateral connections.
by daretotread on May 28, 2012 at 12:33 am
Most voters are SETTLED on supporting the Coalition. Labor needs to UNSETTLE them by adopting a leader who more of these settled voters are willing to vote for.
by ShowsOn on May 28, 2012 at 12:35 am
Rossmore
Once again confusion
Strategic thinking is not leadership. It is an important element but not the sole thing. Many, many back room politicians are great strategic thinkers but not necessarily leaders.
by daretotread on May 28, 2012 at 12:35 am
political animal @ 5126
I have analysed your post and it is clear that you need to go here: Cult of Julia and other delusions You will meet a lot of lovely people who won’t argue with you and you can have a wonderful time together.
Please close the door as you leave.
by bemused on May 28, 2012 at 12:35 am
Gillard’s days are numbered:
http://afr.com/p/opinion/mps_plot_to_give_gillard_the_chop_1myefc6RdNCgGZP28aCEsK
by Thornleigh Labor Man on May 28, 2012 at 12:35 am
Point made I think, Bemused.
by William Bowe on May 28, 2012 at 12:37 am