Morgan face-to-face: 58-42 to Coalition; Seat of the week: Eden-Monaro
The latest Morgan face-to-face poll, conducted last week from a sample of 893, shows a slight improvement for Labor, up 1.5% to 32% on the primary vote with the Coalition down half a point to 45.5% and the Greens down 1.5% to 10.5%. This translates into a one point improvement on the respondent-allocated two-party preferred measure, from 59-48 to 58-42, and a half-point improvement on the previous election method, down from 55.5-44.5 to 55-45.
UPDATE (28/5/12): Essential Research has Labor losing one of the points on two-party preferred it clawed back over previous weeks, the result now at 57-43. Primary votes are 50% for the Coalition (up one), 33% for Labor (steady) and 10% for the Greens (steady). Other questions gauged views on the parties’ respective “attributes”, with all negative responses for Labor (chiefly “divided” and “will promise anything to win votes”) rating higher than all positives, and the Liberal Party doing rather better, rating well for “moderate” and “understands the problems facing Australia”. Bewilderingly, only slightly more respondents (35%) were willing to rate the state of the economy as “good” than “bad” (29%), with 33% opting for neither, although 43% rated the position of their household satisfactory against 28% unsatisfactory.
In today’s installment of Seat of the Week, it’s everybody’s favourite:
Seat of the week: Eden-Monaro
Taking in the south-eastern corner of New South Wales, including Queanbeyan, Cooma, Tumut and the coast from Batemans Bay south to Eden and the Victorian border, Eden-Monaro is renowned throughout the land as the seat that goes with the party who wins the election. Until 2007 its record as a bellwether was in fact surpassed by Macarthur, which had gone with the winning party at every election since its creation in 1949, but while Eden-Monaro stayed true to form by being among the seven New South Wales seats to switch to Labor with the election of the Rudd government, Liberal member Pat Farmer held on in Macarthur. The seat bucked the statewide trend in 2010 by recording a 2.0% swing to Labor, in what was very likely a vote of confidence in the popular local member, Mike Kelly.
Perhaps explaining its bellwether status, Eden-Monaro offers something of a microcosm of the state at large, if not the entire country. It incorporates suburban Queanbeyan, rural centres Cooma and Bega, coastal towns Eden and Narooma, and agricultural areas sprinkled with small towns. Labor’s strongest area is the electorate is the Canberra satellite town of Queanbeyan, excluding its Liberal-leaning outer suburb of Jerrabomberra. The coastal areas, which swung particularly heavily to Labor in 2007, can be divided between a finely balanced centre and areas of Liberal strength at the northern and southern extremities, respectively around Batemans Bay and Merimbula. The smaller inland towns are solidly conservative, but Cooma is highly marginal. The area covered by the electorate has been remarkably little changed over the years: it has been locked into the state’s south-eastern corner since federation, and its geographic size has remained fairly consistent as increases in the size of parliament cancelled out the effects of relative population decline. Outside of the interruption from 2007 and 2010, when it expanded westwards to Tumut and Tumbarumba, its boundaries since 1998 have been almost identical to those it had before 1913.
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Categories: Federal Election 2013, Federal Politics 2010-
Lynchpin @ 5611
Direction won’t change but presentation will. Windsor and other Indies will be happy.
1. Any no confidence motion will fail.
2. Even if one were to pass, it is not the LOTO who goes to GG
3. It is wildly implausible rather than possible.
4. Look forward to Kev taking charge and beginning the fight back.
by bemused on May 28, 2012 at 2:08 pm
Hockey yellow card
by guytaur on May 28, 2012 at 2:08 pm
Boerwar,
I did my PHD on bat shit so I am now drained completely from any excitement when it comes to bat shit.
by Doyley on May 28, 2012 at 2:08 pm
Member for Dawson gets a yellow. Might see some reds today. Mr Burke sounds like she feels like sending a few to the norty corner for the dunce cap treatment.
by Boerwar on May 28, 2012 at 2:09 pm
Comments on an article in the UK press about an income declaration problem for the Co-Chairman of the Tory party:
by CTar1 on May 28, 2012 at 2:10 pm
Lll
Spooks me out,
Now come on william u would know who
Leaisure suit is,
by my say on May 28, 2012 at 2:10 pm
D
I bow to your superior knowledge but not to your sentiments. I had a friend who got pretty crook just from inhaling some bat dung dust.
What was your topic, if you don’t mind my asking?
by Boerwar on May 28, 2012 at 2:10 pm
I am waiting for the first dead pensioner, or the first foreign resident pensioner t get their direct deposit.
by Bushfire Bill on May 28, 2012 at 2:11 pm
Sad that it is reduced to multiple questions in QT to inform the public about the money flowing to pensioners.
by guytaur on May 28, 2012 at 2:11 pm
Any essential poll today?
by adam abdool on May 28, 2012 at 2:11 pm
Expect a follow-up to Bowen or to another minister …
by CTar1 on May 28, 2012 at 2:12 pm
What was the up shot of abetz i the end, in estimates
by my say on May 28, 2012 at 2:12 pm
Will Jenny get a “claw back” into her answer to the supplementary question?
by BK on May 28, 2012 at 2:12 pm
She did!
by BK on May 28, 2012 at 2:12 pm
Boerwar,
Sorry,
I was just having a jest.
Will have to learn how to do the smiley faces bit.
Cheers.
by Doyley on May 28, 2012 at 2:12 pm
That’s an assumption, not a fact.
by Gary on May 28, 2012 at 2:13 pm
BB
Probably be one of those lazy bludging Greeks who do not pay tax as “Lugard” of IMF is quoted as saying.
by guytaur on May 28, 2012 at 2:13 pm
The Opposition stirring the Government about process in relation to the 1700 workers.
by Boerwar on May 28, 2012 at 2:13 pm
D
No worries.
by Boerwar on May 28, 2012 at 2:14 pm
My man Briggs is in Anna’s sights.
by BK on May 28, 2012 at 2:14 pm
Bandt showing how to ask a question.
by guytaur on May 28, 2012 at 2:14 pm
That must have been the dumbest, most ignorant question from Adam Bandt for some time.
by C@tmomma on May 28, 2012 at 2:15 pm
I do believe that we have reciprocal pension rights agreement with Greece so it is not entirely beyond the realms of possibility that the first dead ‘un killed by Australian Government mismanagement of largesse will be found on Mykonos or some such.
by Boerwar on May 28, 2012 at 2:15 pm
Maybe even Lesbos.
by Boerwar on May 28, 2012 at 2:16 pm
Craig Thomson is going to hang in the air like Carmen Lawerence hang in the air with Paul Keating in 1995. It’s not going to be resolved for a long time. I want it off the radar immediately, but it’s not going to happen.
It just sucks the oxygen away from the important policies and diverts the PM’s attention. What the PM should do is cite Geoffrey Robertson’s advice on qanda about what happens in Brittain with this sort of scandal. He’s been suspended from the ALP and under 9 investigations. Leave him and it alone!
by spur212 on May 28, 2012 at 2:16 pm
Chris Bowen, Mythbuster!
by C@tmomma on May 28, 2012 at 2:16 pm
My Say, Leisure Suit Larry is an anonymous Poll Bludger commenter. Neither his email nor IP addresses tell me anything further.
by William Bowe on May 28, 2012 at 2:16 pm
One thing that occurred to me ,
K rudd
Must be chuffed
That he must be the most mentioned person on the i nternet
by my say on May 28, 2012 at 2:16 pm
catmomma
Nope. Here is how El Slacko saw it.
“@LatikaQT: Greens invite Bowen to revive the attack on Rinehart. #qt”
by guytaur on May 28, 2012 at 2:16 pm
“Claw back”
by bluegreen on May 28, 2012 at 2:17 pm
Spur-’
Coul
d be so, but its now boring.
by my say on May 28, 2012 at 2:18 pm
Bushfire I used to take politics seriously myself, but then I realised that politics IS indeed just reality TV. That is when I became an anarchist and stopped my serious involvement with electoral politics and decided to view it more as a TV reviewer instead. And it is the right approach. Not because it is how I want things to be, but it is because it is how things are.
The game is rigged, the system is fixed, the agenda of both the major parties (and any minor party which gets sucked in too close, as the greens now are) are fixed and set by forces outside of their control.
All that is left is personalities and crude identity politics which make the the spectators feel good but don’t mean much. Millionaire multinational businessmen like Bob Hawke singing solidarity forever and millionaire elitist right-wing media personalities pretending to speak for the common man and his common sense values. It is all bullshit! And yes, it is all just reality TV.
But at least I realise what I’m seeing. Because there is nothing sadder than someone who thinks it is all real.
by Leisure Suit Larry on May 28, 2012 at 2:19 pm
Didn’t Milne say shes supports the EMA for Roy Hill. Dissent in the veggie patch?
by ruawake on May 28, 2012 at 2:19 pm
Swanny’s on the “claw back” trail now!
And they don’t like it.
by BK on May 28, 2012 at 2:20 pm
Swanny got fired up with the Twitter fight before QT
by guytaur on May 28, 2012 at 2:21 pm
Oooh, Chainsaw imitating chainsaw.
by Boerwar on May 28, 2012 at 2:21 pm
“@LatikaQT: Macca. Wow. Long time since he got a qstn. #qt”
by guytaur on May 28, 2012 at 2:22 pm
LSL
Why so sad?
by Boerwar on May 28, 2012 at 2:22 pm
Marn doing marn.
by Boerwar on May 28, 2012 at 2:23 pm
Afternoon PBS
What an interesting world we find ourselves in. If we change to Rudd as a leader, and we won’t, he has implied he will look at changing the carbon legislation. Apparently he was on the nose for walking away from an ETS, JG delivers one and is getting punished , and he will be rewarded, apparently from walking away from one again. If he leaves the carbon legislation in place, which is apparently why the public are unhappy with JG he will not get punished for it, why – not really sure. None of any of this makes any logical sense.
Unless you accept that it is not the leader that is the issue, it is the fact that it is Labor in office that is the problem. Now the vested interested have determined that the reforms of Labor should not happen it will attempt to destroy ANY leader.
The media has never been on the side of Labor. We have always had to fight to get past the MSM. And don’t quote me the fleeting moments in time when an inevitable victory by Labor was used by the media to pretend it is balanced. Those times don’t count.
How do WE get the message out? By word of mouth. Every bunyip on here who is criticising the party for failing to get its message out better be out there talking to people instead of being armchair critics.
I met someone the other day who had never heard of the NBN! Well he sure has heard of it now…
On another note, glorious weather in Perth…
by Gweneth on May 28, 2012 at 2:24 pm
Boerwar
Has McFarlane been in the bush lately?
http://tinyurl.com/7zs8kcp
by BK on May 28, 2012 at 2:25 pm
Marn cracks wood/trees in-joke in response to chainsaw, eliciting some knowing guffaws.
The House is a bit quiet today.
by Boerwar on May 28, 2012 at 2:25 pm
guytaur@5676,
I’m not so shallow as a Greens supporter. I do not have an innate dislike of Gina Reinhart if she can be made to fork over for Australian’s benefit by the Australian government. Don’t think Tony Abbott would ever get so sweet a deal.
by C@tmomma on May 28, 2012 at 2:26 pm
BK
Now I am confused. Did he learn it from a Lyrebird?
by Boerwar on May 28, 2012 at 2:26 pm
Boerwar
It’s definitely a chicken before the egg? question.
by BK on May 28, 2012 at 2:27 pm
Susan Ley shuffles up to the box like a busybody and attempts a Mesma impersonation.
by BK on May 28, 2012 at 2:28 pm
Ms R has invested some more in Fairfax and has upped her quest to two director possies, but the Board continues to resist.
Fairfax is at around .65c, is saddled with largish debts, and has a business model which seems to be destroying value rather than the opposite.
Why would Ms R bother?
by Boerwar on May 28, 2012 at 2:29 pm
Why do those Opposite bark when Mr Shorten walks to the Despatch Box?
by Boerwar on May 28, 2012 at 2:29 pm
Whats wrong too much good news.
by ruawake on May 28, 2012 at 2:30 pm
My oh said pyne does not like good news lol:-)
by my say on May 28, 2012 at 2:30 pm