Morgan face-to-face: 58-42 to Coalition; Seat of the week: Eden-Monaro
The latest Morgan face-to-face poll, conducted last week from a sample of 893, shows a slight improvement for Labor, up 1.5% to 32% on the primary vote with the Coalition down half a point to 45.5% and the Greens down 1.5% to 10.5%. This translates into a one point improvement on the respondent-allocated two-party preferred measure, from 59-48 to 58-42, and a half-point improvement on the previous election method, down from 55.5-44.5 to 55-45.
UPDATE (28/5/12): Essential Research has Labor losing one of the points on two-party preferred it clawed back over previous weeks, the result now at 57-43. Primary votes are 50% for the Coalition (up one), 33% for Labor (steady) and 10% for the Greens (steady). Other questions gauged views on the parties’ respective “attributes”, with all negative responses for Labor (chiefly “divided” and “will promise anything to win votes”) rating higher than all positives, and the Liberal Party doing rather better, rating well for “moderate” and “understands the problems facing Australia”. Bewilderingly, only slightly more respondents (35%) were willing to rate the state of the economy as “good” than “bad” (29%), with 33% opting for neither, although 43% rated the position of their household satisfactory against 28% unsatisfactory.
In today’s installment of Seat of the Week, it’s everybody’s favourite:
Seat of the week: Eden-Monaro
Taking in the south-eastern corner of New South Wales, including Queanbeyan, Cooma, Tumut and the coast from Batemans Bay south to Eden and the Victorian border, Eden-Monaro is renowned throughout the land as the seat that goes with the party who wins the election. Until 2007 its record as a bellwether was in fact surpassed by Macarthur, which had gone with the winning party at every election since its creation in 1949, but while Eden-Monaro stayed true to form by being among the seven New South Wales seats to switch to Labor with the election of the Rudd government, Liberal member Pat Farmer held on in Macarthur. The seat bucked the statewide trend in 2010 by recording a 2.0% swing to Labor, in what was very likely a vote of confidence in the popular local member, Mike Kelly.
Perhaps explaining its bellwether status, Eden-Monaro offers something of a microcosm of the state at large, if not the entire country. It incorporates suburban Queanbeyan, rural centres Cooma and Bega, coastal towns Eden and Narooma, and agricultural areas sprinkled with small towns. Labor’s strongest area is the electorate is the Canberra satellite town of Queanbeyan, excluding its Liberal-leaning outer suburb of Jerrabomberra. The coastal areas, which swung particularly heavily to Labor in 2007, can be divided between a finely balanced centre and areas of Liberal strength at the northern and southern extremities, respectively around Batemans Bay and Merimbula. The smaller inland towns are solidly conservative, but Cooma is highly marginal. The area covered by the electorate has been remarkably little changed over the years: it has been locked into the state’s south-eastern corner since federation, and its geographic size has remained fairly consistent as increases in the size of parliament cancelled out the effects of relative population decline. Outside of the interruption from 2007 and 2010, when it expanded westwards to Tumut and Tumbarumba, its boundaries since 1998 have been almost identical to those it had before 1913.
Page 1 of 2 | Next page
Categories: Federal Election 2013, Federal Politics 2010-
Lynchpin Posted Monday, May 28, 2012 at 4:14 pm | Permalink
Katharine Murphy reporting that Rudd going in to see Bob Brown to wish him well. Rudd must be very forgiving.
I remembrr ,sen brown saying wttte back 2 years ago he had not talked to rudd
Was it 18 months,
Bit irony there
by my say on May 28, 2012 at 4:33 pm
Tricot
I have no idea. It got a run over the weekend arising from the 1700 foreign workers issue. Portrayed by Murdoch and Fairfax as an affront to Gillard’s authority.
by Lynchpin on May 28, 2012 at 4:34 pm
I will go out on a limb and suggest the “wild ” caucus meeting tomorrow will be a fizzer.
Dougie and a couple of others from the left will have a rant and then caucus will move on.
Seems Mr Bowen provided a detailed brief to the PMs office on Monday and the PM was fully briefed on Wednesday when she returned. Bet that is what she told Howes and co but he has turned it on a bit.
Rest i would say has been made up by the MSM based on the rant by Howes and he said she said rumour.
THe PM would never dog it and just leave Mr Bowen out to dry. I will stand by that and do not give a ratz if others disagree.
Discussions were held between the PM, Mr Bowen and Mr Shorten prior to the speech and Mr Bowen added in re the jobs board and increased oversight.
by Doyley on May 28, 2012 at 4:35 pm
Talking to a plasterer who works for a big construction company here at school pick up this arvo.
Nothing happening, very quiet, most people in his crew have been layed off. He is lucky, has got another week or two of work then not sure what will be happening.
This along with many other conversations from workers and execs in the last few months really confirming to me that Victoria is now well and truly in a state wide recession.
by deflationite on May 28, 2012 at 4:35 pm
This is a very interesting analysis of the reasons why Climate Change Skepticism has spread so quickly throughout the community:
http://www.alternet.org/visions/155571/why_don?page=3
The paper is the product of University research.
Now, when I think of Grant Denyer, I’m inclined to agree with them about who is the problem.
by C@tmomma on May 28, 2012 at 4:35 pm
Doyley, I suspect you are correct. The “Gillard reportedly furious” angle was probably a beat up.
by Lynchpin on May 28, 2012 at 4:37 pm
Richard Farmer in Crikey for one, by the look of it, but I heard it on commercial radio news this morning.
Thanks for the input.
by Tricot on May 28, 2012 at 4:39 pm
Deflationite – I am hearing the construction industry in Qld is also quite depressed.
by Lynchpin on May 28, 2012 at 4:39 pm
lol thefinnigans @ 5999
So true
by Meguire Bob on May 28, 2012 at 4:39 pm
lynchpin and Deflationite
Depressed or returning to low activity after Cash Splash spike?
by guytaur on May 28, 2012 at 4:40 pm
Who would have thunk that. According to Essential 64% of punters think Abbott would promise anything to win votes
by The Finnigans on May 28, 2012 at 4:40 pm
And……..for what its worth – can hardly find, currently, any “leadership” stuff on on-line news – at least not ABC and Yahoo7.
It is amazing how this stuff has a bit of burn, but like “the boats” is now getting to yawn stage.
by Tricot on May 28, 2012 at 4:41 pm
http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/political-news/bowen-casts-doubt-on-pms-story-20120528-1zes7.html
I think Judith is nit picking here. Didn’t Gillard only get back into the country on Wednesday?
by Lynchpin on May 28, 2012 at 4:41 pm
Finns
Windsor did cut through with that selling his arse comment.
by guytaur on May 28, 2012 at 4:41 pm
Well, it is low activity as far as I can tell. Has been since the GFC.
by Lynchpin on May 28, 2012 at 4:42 pm
The issue is one of Cabinet Govt.
Bowen and Marn have the legal powers to enact EWAs. Just as the Environment Minister approves or nukes projects under relevant legislation.
So they should be able to get on with it, if they stuff up – hey real Ministerial responsibility. When did we get to the everything has to be approved by the PM farce?
Oh thats right, how much did the PM Dept grow under Howard?
by ruawake on May 28, 2012 at 4:43 pm
Can someone clarify what happened, re:Lawler?
by Dee on May 28, 2012 at 4:43 pm
Only a little stretch from there to confirming him to be a serial liar.
by Lynchpin on May 28, 2012 at 4:44 pm
What killed Gillard was that 6 month period last year where everything was up in the air.
It was the antithesis of leadership. Leave open the question and make all the policy in public rather than state the position and stand for it. Things probably would’ve been salvageable with Gillard had Swan provided and shown a bit of a spine during that period.
Instead, there’s now the frame around the price on carbon that the ALP can’t have an effective climate change policy without the Greens. It’s murdering them.
First thing that should be done after July 1st is end the alliance with the Greens, claim all the policies as Labor’s and make it clear to people that the ALP doesn’t require the Greens to have an effective policy on climate change
by spur212 on May 28, 2012 at 4:44 pm
Lynchpin @6012,
I though exactly the same thing.
After getting the story in QT today it all makes good sense. Everyone consulted, time lines fit.
The rest just a beat up.
by Doyley on May 28, 2012 at 4:44 pm
The average person will be having a big yawn over this BS.
by Gary on May 28, 2012 at 4:44 pm
I can’t see the ALP knifing Julia at the moment, no matter the polling – they will be in the wait until after 1 July mode. By September they will be back in decision cycle mode.
JG needs to keep Primary out of the 20′s. If she doesn’t do that, then there is a high probability of a move on her in the last session of Parliament.
If JG survives into 2013 then the only time I expect anything to happen to her will be right before an election.
Given the NSW experience of ALP Leadership rotations – I will not be suprised if she goes full term even if the Primary is in the 20s. There is a mix of despondency and dour “stick to your knitting” attitudes in the Caucus.
by Compact Crank on May 28, 2012 at 4:46 pm
Then immediately hand the reins of government to Abbott. P-leese.
by Gary on May 28, 2012 at 4:47 pm
Centre @ 5952
Where did Fairfax say that?
The only thing I have seen like that is only from a Merrill Lynch report (i.e. just speculation) saying that this could happen one day…
by Laocoon on May 28, 2012 at 4:47 pm
Probably right. But it keeps the journos in Canberra entertained and in a job.
by Lynchpin on May 28, 2012 at 4:47 pm
Anybody have a problem with dropping off Juvenile indonesian Fisherman back to their homes?
by Compact Crank on May 28, 2012 at 4:49 pm
Gary
What are the Greens going to do after July 1st? Support Abbott? It would end them
by spur212 on May 28, 2012 at 4:50 pm
I just received the following email, from a person who doesn’t think we need the NBN (this is a guy in a tech field). He had told me the other day he didn’t think it was necessary, and couldn’t see a use for anything faster than ADSL-2:
This was my reply:
by Bushfire Bill on May 28, 2012 at 4:52 pm
Lots more stuff to happen with Leveson yet and all the other plod enquiries.
Mr Thurlbeck now seems to be the first canary in captivityto want to lubricate his tonsils.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/crime/news-international-tried-to-blackmail-select-committee-7792687.html
by Gaffhook on May 28, 2012 at 4:52 pm
If Labor left the Greens high and dry all Tone has to do next is point out that Labor is still requiring their vote to remain in government. Same effect. We know how Tone operates.
by Gary on May 28, 2012 at 4:52 pm
BW
Burke is the minister most able to find ways not to do things.
The MIA and surrounds is an area I’m quite familiar with – the problems have been very obvious since the late 60′s but then seemed to recover a lot after the floods in 1974.
But all downhill since then and faster each year – I expect that no matter what is done that many of the original irrigation blocks (the not so well drained ones) will be waste land in 20 years. You only need to look at the areas where the water drains south back to the Murrumbidgee or n-w to Barren Box.
I haven’t been to Kerang or Barham for decades but the signs were there too in the 70′s.
I don’t think the Edwards has, other than in full on flood, been more than a series of waterholes since the mid 60′s.
Even if things are done most of the original useable irrigated land and the drainage areas will be useless in 30 years.
Self correcting? Only after a very long time and with very limited use.
Dismal prospect – but I doubt severe correction at this late point will do much. Foresight in the 70′s may have saved the day and there were plenty of people talking about it at the time. Most smart people sold up and got out in the decade after.
by CTar1 on May 28, 2012 at 4:53 pm
The very best chance for Labor is to present a united, confident party to the electorate.
Gillard beats Abbott on absolutely every single issue.
Labor will go with Julia win lose or draw.
I honestly think she will win and as soon as I can feel public opinion turning, I’d say within 6 – 8 months before the election, bang I’m on
If the polls turn to Labor before xmas, the monkey is will be sent packing
by Centre on May 28, 2012 at 4:54 pm
Latika tweeting this – not sure why.
http://www.afr.com/p/national/pm_can_weather_winter_of_discontent_tQvNXPvqya7lMNJzLsv11I
by lizzie on May 28, 2012 at 4:54 pm
Centre,
I’d like to think Gillard will win but in football terms, she is running out of minutes. As per my spray yesterday, I will not countenance a return to Rudd. Under no circumstances. Anyone else, yes, but not him.
Re Souths and their usual ninth position, you may have noticed that this year they have employed a coach. And they still have to play Parra twice. Yum.
by Roy Orbison on May 28, 2012 at 4:55 pm
Sounds like the tactics used in Australian politics recently.
by Lynchpin on May 28, 2012 at 4:55 pm
If I spend my $250 on a day at the footie and the other ~$600 million also gets spent on consumption, how will that make the June qtr stats fly?
by ruawake on May 28, 2012 at 4:56 pm
Spur2126018
I am sure you have noticed but a lot of people are actually voting for the Greens – many former Labor voters.
Short of a national calamity, I don’t think they are coming back.
What is the point in further alienating the further left-of-centre vote?
I have said it a few times but it bears repeating – Stephen Smith – Perth electorate – Minister – saw in his electorate – at the booth I was at – the Greens vote go from 10% PV in 2007 to 15% PV in 2010. After the PV counted, he was behind the Liberal candidate.
He won comfortably on Green preferences running at 80% plus in his favour.
And you want to junk this support?
The day is gone when Labor will get 40% plus PV – unless said dire event occurs.
While the Greens need Labor in office more than they do the conservatives to push a progressive agenda, Labor needs the Greens to stay in office and defeat the conservatives.
I know some here cannot stand the Greens but they have captured the more radical left side of politics which was once a Labor constituency.
I would prefer Green to the left and be in office rather than a Red Neck Tory mob in power to the right and be in opposition.
by Tricot on May 28, 2012 at 4:57 pm
Gary
With one difference: in that case, as in Thomson’s case, he’d be telling the truth!
by Mick77 on May 28, 2012 at 4:58 pm
Tingle nails it
When I heard this being announced, I thought it said everything right in terms of the economy and what the ALP are all about, but then it turned into this “Gillard wasn’t told” stuff. The ALP need to relearn the fact that profit isn’t a dirty word and that pacifying the base only alienates people who aren’t part of the base (the people who’s votes you need to win elections)
by spur212 on May 28, 2012 at 4:58 pm
Tricot
There’s no downside, only upside in recapturing some of the centre and centre-left. The loonie left will always preference Labor over LNP so nothing lost by casting them adrift.
by Mick77 on May 28, 2012 at 5:00 pm
Do we know this happened for sure?
by Gary on May 28, 2012 at 5:00 pm
Gary
Stop giving Abbott power he doesn’t have. Who cares what he says. If he tries to play the card, you point out that the Coalition needs the Greens to block the Malaysian deal
by spur212 on May 28, 2012 at 5:01 pm
spur212
She is through and through an AWU propped up PM.
At the moment she depends on them more than she depends on voters.
This is NSW ALP politics writ large.
by bluegreen on May 28, 2012 at 5:01 pm
And that will change the minds of people not listening will it? I doubt it.
by Gary on May 28, 2012 at 5:02 pm
Centre, Labor should talk about the BISONs day and night.
Notice, how today at #qt, Abbott and his 40 thieves were floundering with it was all about the BISONs
by The Finnigans on May 28, 2012 at 5:02 pm
No, she is a caucus propped up PM. 71 -31.
by Gary on May 28, 2012 at 5:03 pm
Yeah, but with the multi-party committee they couldn’t do that. Its hard to state the definitive position when it takes months to properly negotiate it.
by rishane on May 28, 2012 at 5:03 pm
If there was a clear anti-Rudd union unity leader then Gillard would be gone by now.
Its just that Shorten, Crean and Combet split the field.
by bluegreen on May 28, 2012 at 5:03 pm
Perhaps we should get hold of Gillard’s statement before jumping the gun.
We’ve been caught like this before, where cuts from a televised statement bore no resemblance to the true context of the PM’s statement.
by Dee on May 28, 2012 at 5:05 pm
No, it’s just that not one of them wants to challenge.
by Gary on May 28, 2012 at 5:05 pm