Morgan face-to-face: 58-42 to Coalition; Seat of the week: Eden-Monaro
The latest Morgan face-to-face poll, conducted last week from a sample of 893, shows a slight improvement for Labor, up 1.5% to 32% on the primary vote with the Coalition down half a point to 45.5% and the Greens down 1.5% to 10.5%. This translates into a one point improvement on the respondent-allocated two-party preferred measure, from 59-48 to 58-42, and a half-point improvement on the previous election method, down from 55.5-44.5 to 55-45.
UPDATE (28/5/12): Essential Research has Labor losing one of the points on two-party preferred it clawed back over previous weeks, the result now at 57-43. Primary votes are 50% for the Coalition (up one), 33% for Labor (steady) and 10% for the Greens (steady). Other questions gauged views on the parties’ respective “attributes”, with all negative responses for Labor (chiefly “divided” and “will promise anything to win votes”) rating higher than all positives, and the Liberal Party doing rather better, rating well for “moderate” and “understands the problems facing Australia”. Bewilderingly, only slightly more respondents (35%) were willing to rate the state of the economy as “good” than “bad” (29%), with 33% opting for neither, although 43% rated the position of their household satisfactory against 28% unsatisfactory.
In today’s installment of Seat of the Week, it’s everybody’s favourite:
Seat of the week: Eden-Monaro
Taking in the south-eastern corner of New South Wales, including Queanbeyan, Cooma, Tumut and the coast from Batemans Bay south to Eden and the Victorian border, Eden-Monaro is renowned throughout the land as the seat that goes with the party who wins the election. Until 2007 its record as a bellwether was in fact surpassed by Macarthur, which had gone with the winning party at every election since its creation in 1949, but while Eden-Monaro stayed true to form by being among the seven New South Wales seats to switch to Labor with the election of the Rudd government, Liberal member Pat Farmer held on in Macarthur. The seat bucked the statewide trend in 2010 by recording a 2.0% swing to Labor, in what was very likely a vote of confidence in the popular local member, Mike Kelly.
Perhaps explaining its bellwether status, Eden-Monaro offers something of a microcosm of the state at large, if not the entire country. It incorporates suburban Queanbeyan, rural centres Cooma and Bega, coastal towns Eden and Narooma, and agricultural areas sprinkled with small towns. Labor’s strongest area is the electorate is the Canberra satellite town of Queanbeyan, excluding its Liberal-leaning outer suburb of Jerrabomberra. The coastal areas, which swung particularly heavily to Labor in 2007, can be divided between a finely balanced centre and areas of Liberal strength at the northern and southern extremities, respectively around Batemans Bay and Merimbula. The smaller inland towns are solidly conservative, but Cooma is highly marginal. The area covered by the electorate has been remarkably little changed over the years: it has been locked into the state’s south-eastern corner since federation, and its geographic size has remained fairly consistent as increases in the size of parliament cancelled out the effects of relative population decline. Outside of the interruption from 2007 and 2010, when it expanded westwards to Tumut and Tumbarumba, its boundaries since 1998 have been almost identical to those it had before 1913.
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Categories: Federal Election 2013, Federal Politics 2010-
RFLMAO@YOU. Saying Murdoch owns both between laughs.
by guytaur on May 28, 2012 at 5:31 pm
fiona
Yes. However Fairfax will have some real ammo to blast News with. I do not think they will fail to take the chance.
by guytaur on May 28, 2012 at 5:33 pm
Excellent reply BB, you only need to go on Iview to see what they consider high speed broadband as 1.1mbps for “optimum” viewing, the quality of the video is crap and I suspect it is streamed at such a low quality because of the state of our communications infrastructure.
Abbotts PPL amounts to more in the same ten year period that would be spent on the NBN. “The Coalition plan would see taxpayers spend $4.5 billion per year on parental leave”
“The NBN is being funded initially by equity funding from the Commonwealth. As outlined in the Corporate Plan, the projected Government equity requirement for the project is $27.5 billion.”
http://www.nbnco.com.au/faq.html
Julia needs to a better job selling the NBN this is what will win the next election for Labor
by Seasprite on May 28, 2012 at 5:33 pm
CC The carbon price is yet to come into effect and just as we saw with the introduction of the GST there will be business that raise it as an issue but in the case of recent job loses in NSW clearly relate to a number of factors including a purposed power bill contract offered by the NSW Government
by mexicanbeemer on May 28, 2012 at 5:33 pm
More Liberal Lies!
1. The CP does not involve “taxing” electricity. A “price” is NOT a “tax”, no matter how often you repeat that lie!
2. Small Business is well compensated by the government; the Coalition voted against that compensation, as it did the 1% tax reduction & write-offs that were part of the MRRT legislation.
3. The Coalition voted against CP/MRRT-related 1% tax reduction, and packages & compensation” for medium & big business and the Greens voted against the 1% tax reduction for big business.
Blame Abbott for the Big Lie, and for trying to rob all businesses of 1% Tax reduction.
by OzPol Tragic on May 28, 2012 at 5:33 pm
@6089 – because the Catastrophic anthropogenic climate change fear mongers created so much uncertainty in the power generation markets that there has been significant underinvestment in both generation and distribution assets leading to necessary price rises – someone has to pay – whether you pay on the direct bill or through taxes – you can’t guild the lilly – someone is going to pay – unless you have a Nobel Prize winning idea to solve the problem.
by Compact Crank on May 28, 2012 at 5:35 pm
Aside from Newspoll being rigged, Bob Ellis also claims that Channel 9 shows the heads of Liberal leaders bigger in the camera shot than Labor leaders’ heads during debates (which according to Ellis makes them look more authoritative and trustworthy).
It is a bit sad to see what Bob Eliis has ended up as, because back in the day he was a very good writer. He was always eccentric and his political opinions could be a bit strange from time to time, but he was also capable of great insight.
He once wrote “I thought I saw two people walking past, but it was only Laurie Oakes, augmented by twenty years of lunch,” which made me laugh at the time.
Sad to see what age, abuse of the body, and bitterness have reduced him to.
by Leisure Suit Larry on May 28, 2012 at 5:35 pm
I repeat – the Essential poll today is proof positive of the role the popular media play in forming opinion. Any reasonable examination of cause and effect for the “who is better” questions would reach the same conclusion.
by BK on May 28, 2012 at 5:36 pm
“@ThangNgo: On Richard Glover @702sydney after 5.30pm with anne summers and Christopher Pyne. Tune in
”
In case you are in Sydney. Just be aware there is Pyne factor.
by guytaur on May 28, 2012 at 5:37 pm
“@ThangNgo: On Richard Glover @702sydney after 5.30pm with anne summers and Christopher Pyne. Tune in
”
In case you are in Sydney. Just be aware there is Pyne factor.
by guytaur on May 28, 2012 at 5:37 pm
So who are the fuck wits making up the 36% who don’t think this?
Oh, that’s right
Mod Lib
TP
Truthy
Evan
bluegreen
etc etc
by Tom Hawkins on May 28, 2012 at 5:37 pm
Compact Crank
Bull biscuits,we have alot of skin in the game. Well, Rupes minions here in Oz do. The US has very nasty laws when it comes to US companies and corruption of foreign officials. The agency have already started investigations on the back of the Leveson fun and games. The thing is about the laws is that it goes after the executives and jail time is involved. Oh and “wilful” or “negligent” ignorance is no defence.The FBI are already looking at corruption allegations in Russia.
by poroti on May 28, 2012 at 5:38 pm
CC
Yes there may have been an element of scare mongering but at the same time there has been a lack of clear policy direction with Government’s jumping from one scheme to another nearly as often as the wind changes direction.
If we were serious then by now every Government building would be connected to solar power.
by mexicanbeemer on May 28, 2012 at 5:38 pm
@6100 – outside of political tragics – no one in Australia knows or cares about the Leveson inquiry, they are still confused about why Autralia had a media Inquiry (if they know we had one) and they don’t give a tinkers cuss that Murdoch owns papers in the UK and here.
More are probably aware of his wife’s right hook than the current inquiry – and rightly so.
by Compact Crank on May 28, 2012 at 5:39 pm
Bicycle Wheel
The underinvestment started years ago. Stop introducing red herrings.
by lizzie on May 28, 2012 at 5:39 pm
gild the lily perhaps, not aware that lilies are craftsmen or pharmacists
by Kinkajou on May 28, 2012 at 5:39 pm
BK:
And if the MSM that is your staple fare has previously been reliable, then you are really conned.
My mother is an astute woman who has always been interested in politics. Her only media sources are ABC radio and TV.
She thought that the BER had been a complete waste of money – because that was the message that “even” the ABC was relentlessly pounding into its audience – until I had the chance to sit down with her and go through the Auditor-General’s and the Orgon reports in detail.
Since then she treats every bit of political “news” on the ABC with caution.
by fiona on May 28, 2012 at 5:40 pm
Compact Crank
Very true but they will notice if the good ship Rupert goes down.
by poroti on May 28, 2012 at 5:42 pm
guytaur,
Fingers crossed!
by fiona on May 28, 2012 at 5:43 pm
These things tend to gain a life of their own, there are many Australian living in the U.K or visit the U.K every year and they would be aware of what is happening and would directly or indirectly mention it to people here. its called the grapevine and its something that no media or politician can control
by mexicanbeemer on May 28, 2012 at 5:44 pm
@6104 OzPol Tragic
1. Funny – I’m sure the PM said she was hppy to call it a tax.
2. and 3. There were no Votes against any cuts. They weren’t put to a vote. And most Small Business owners understand the logic of not supporting the proposed 1% cuts becuase of how it relates to the other tax packages which they are opposed to – and will be gotten rid of as soon as the Coalition has a chance.
by Compact Crank on May 28, 2012 at 5:45 pm
Finns
Who would have thunk that. According to Essential 70% of punters think Gillard would promise anything to win votes
by Diogenes on May 28, 2012 at 5:45 pm
@6114 – and which party was in power for themajority of the underinvestment period??? Wasn’t the Coalition.
by Compact Crank on May 28, 2012 at 5:46 pm
Abetz drew out the AWA official to say she didn’t hear about “setting up with hookers” until recently. He then made sure he mentioned the “Labor-funded lawyers” who brought it up recently.
He’s a sneaky cleverdick.
by lizzie on May 28, 2012 at 5:47 pm
Like it for NBN
Z☰N Digital @z3n_digital
#NBN became Abbott proof today , Optus will close its cable network to join the NBN in a $800 million deal #auspol repeal that TONY haaahaa
by Schnappi on May 28, 2012 at 5:47 pm
Who would have thunk that. People don’t trust politicians and yet people here and in the media claim it is some new revelation.
by Mithrandir on May 28, 2012 at 5:47 pm
CC
Pity you did not mention in your point about the under investment in base load power stations and related problems, that the conservatives hugely underestimated these needs during the so-called “golden” Howard years.
Costello rather preferred to give the money to middle class welfare to buy votes and we are all paying the price now.
Oh, but I do the tories and injustice.
They did build the Alice Springs to Darwin railway – without any cost/benefit analysis so beloved of the conservatives do-nothings.
And what was that I heard? It has not made a cracker in money and is never likely to do so.
But hey! For the defence of the country- the conservative love of war toys – not figure is too high and no pocket too deep to pay for this “strategic” railway.
by Tricot on May 28, 2012 at 5:48 pm
@6119 – we’ll put that in the basket with the “polls will improve after July 1 because it won’t be as bad as they think” stuff.
by Compact Crank on May 28, 2012 at 5:48 pm
CC And how certain can we be that Tone wont receive a report from a top Accounting firm providing reasons for the carbon price to be kept and Tone follow that expert advice
by mexicanbeemer on May 28, 2012 at 5:49 pm
Not ModLib. I’ll give him some credit for not liking Abbott at all.
I’d say a large component of that 36% are people who hardly follow politics at all and have always voted the same way. They’d vote for Abbott if he pledged to feed manure down their throats.
Some people – a lot, most probably – treat political parties the same as footy teams. Never questioned why they follow them, but will back them in any argument.
by Aguirre on May 28, 2012 at 5:49 pm
@6122
Wrong. Which State are you in?
by lizzie on May 28, 2012 at 5:49 pm
Tom, that looks like a pack of them painful pavlovian doggys to me
by The Finnigans on May 28, 2012 at 5:50 pm
@6126 – name one power station built by the Federal Government – ever???
It’s a State responsibility.
by Compact Crank on May 28, 2012 at 5:50 pm
CC
We both know that the former NSW ALP government was a poor performing government
by mexicanbeemer on May 28, 2012 at 5:51 pm
CC Power stations are not the responsibility of federal governments
by mexicanbeemer on May 28, 2012 at 5:51 pm
@6130 – I’m in WA, but don’t see how that matters.
How am I wrong?
by Compact Crank on May 28, 2012 at 5:52 pm
CC
wRONg . I went to a carbon trading conference several years back and guess what was holding up investment in generating capacity? The likes of our mad monk and his merry men thats who. The industry accepted climate change, they accepted that there WILL be a price on carbon and they wanted a price asap as the sooner it was in the cheaper it would be for them and the sooner they can start. However they have an investment horizon measured in decades. Which means the only uncertainty for them has been created by Tony and the troglodytes and the possibility they will rip up the carbon price scheme arrangements currently in place.
by poroti on May 28, 2012 at 5:52 pm
Damn,
by fiona on May 28, 2012 at 5:52 pm
lizzie,
All I can say about that women in the committee claiming to have only heard about the hookers is that she must have been living under a rock. Thommos claims that someone else used his card is not new.
by Space Kidette on May 28, 2012 at 5:52 pm
@6133/34 – tell Tricot. He seems to think the Feds should have been building power stations.
by Compact Crank on May 28, 2012 at 5:53 pm
Diog, i see that nothing has changed over the years
http://users.tpg.com.au/tjhpnq98//pb2.jpg
by The Finnigans on May 28, 2012 at 5:54 pm
@6136 – a CARBON TRADING Conference – I am gob smacked. Really???
by Compact Crank on May 28, 2012 at 5:55 pm
CC
Splitting hairs cobber – and a nice avoidance of of the point that pinged you about the As to D railway.
Howard’s gift to the nation. And they call themselves the party of business and free enterprise.
by Tricot on May 28, 2012 at 5:55 pm
SK
I think the Q was very specific and she answered specifically. Abetz is careful to move on as soon as he gets the answer he’s looking for, even cutting off replies so that they aren’t qualified by the next sentence.
by lizzie on May 28, 2012 at 5:57 pm
I’ve been a bit busy for a week or so and haven’t really been keeping up with what’s going on. One thing did get my attention though – the same old, same old msm accusations of ‘look what that woman has gone and done now’ just before anoither poll is taken. This time it was the imported workers ‘scandal/bungle/disaster’ and yet more leadershit speculation. All made up by the msm and their Coalition buddies, naturally, but one the garbage is out there it stays out there. All I can say is that the Coalition must be absolutely scared witless by Julia Gillard and her government to keep on trotting out this crap. I take comfort in the fact that for years Howard had to contend with the same crap about Costello and leadership challenges. Really, you’d think the msm would find something new to talk about. Even whoever was doing the run-down on the day’s headlines on Sky News this morning had a fe wry comments on yet another ‘Gillard leadership challenge’ headline.
by leone on May 28, 2012 at 5:57 pm
@6163 – the possibility of removal of CO2 taxes would actually make investments more likely.
by Compact Crank on May 28, 2012 at 5:59 pm
SPUR?”"
i have been wanting toask qld, think thats where your from
Your premier was brilliant, re floods and things we could see from here
But most of you, walked away from her team
Seems u can never please a queenslander
Surley to have paid homage to rudd u would of all voted labo even if he was not pm
The pm julia gillard arranged a levy for you all and your still whinging
I foubt tge gov, could ever expect support from a so called labor qlder like yyourself and feeney
by my say on May 28, 2012 at 6:00 pm
William – that piece on Morgan polling is comedy gold – and we are supposed to take his polling as gospel!
by BH on May 28, 2012 at 6:00 pm
Tricot – having been part of the move ofthe 1st Armoured Regiment (Tank) from Puckapunyal, Victoria to Darwin, I fully understand the strategic logic of the Alice Springs to Darwin line.
by Compact Crank on May 28, 2012 at 6:01 pm
In fact, it could bankrupt dioceses and archdioceses, as it has done overseas. Here are some articles on the financial costs to some RC authorities (note 1. some of the articles are old 2. some of the compensation actions have been delayed because of the GFC. In most places, statutes of limitation (many countries have none on such crimes) have been extended.
Roman Catholic sex abuse cases by country
Among the highest profile cases have been Sexual abuse scandal in the Catholic archdiocese of Boston Boston archdiocese was reputedly bankrupted by the extent and magnitude of the claims, and refusal of insurance companies, given authorities know about the problem, ignored and/ or covered it up.
Roman Catholic Church sexual abuse scandal in Ireland
(From Google reference) Vatican … court found it necessary to make financial settlements with the victims totaling over $1.5 billion as of March 2006. Ecclesiastical response to Catholic sex abuse cases.
by OzPol Tragic on May 28, 2012 at 6:03 pm