Crikey



Morgan face-to-face: 58-42 to Coalition; Seat of the week: Eden-Monaro

The latest Morgan face-to-face poll, conducted last week from a sample of 893, shows a slight improvement for Labor, up 1.5% to 32% on the primary vote with the Coalition down half a point to 45.5% and the Greens down 1.5% to 10.5%. This translates into a one point improvement on the respondent-allocated two-party preferred measure, from 59-48 to 58-42, and a half-point improvement on the previous election method, down from 55.5-44.5 to 55-45.

UPDATE (28/5/12): Essential Research has Labor losing one of the points on two-party preferred it clawed back over previous weeks, the result now at 57-43. Primary votes are 50% for the Coalition (up one), 33% for Labor (steady) and 10% for the Greens (steady). Other questions gauged views on the parties’ respective “attributes”, with all negative responses for Labor (chiefly “divided” and “will promise anything to win votes”) rating higher than all positives, and the Liberal Party doing rather better, rating well for “moderate” and “understands the problems facing Australia”. Bewilderingly, only slightly more respondents (35%) were willing to rate the state of the economy as “good” than “bad” (29%), with 33% opting for neither, although 43% rated the position of their household satisfactory against 28% unsatisfactory.

In today’s installment of Seat of the Week, it’s everybody’s favourite:

Seat of the week: Eden-Monaro

Taking in the south-eastern corner of New South Wales, including Queanbeyan, Cooma, Tumut and the coast from Batemans Bay south to Eden and the Victorian border, Eden-Monaro is renowned throughout the land as the seat that goes with the party who wins the election. Until 2007 its record as a bellwether was in fact surpassed by Macarthur, which had gone with the winning party at every election since its creation in 1949, but while Eden-Monaro stayed true to form by being among the seven New South Wales seats to switch to Labor with the election of the Rudd government, Liberal member Pat Farmer held on in Macarthur. The seat bucked the statewide trend in 2010 by recording a 2.0% swing to Labor, in what was very likely a vote of confidence in the popular local member, Mike Kelly.

Perhaps explaining its bellwether status, Eden-Monaro offers something of a microcosm of the state at large, if not the entire country. It incorporates suburban Queanbeyan, rural centres Cooma and Bega, coastal towns Eden and Narooma, and agricultural areas sprinkled with small towns. Labor’s strongest area is the electorate is the Canberra satellite town of Queanbeyan, excluding its Liberal-leaning outer suburb of Jerrabomberra. The coastal areas, which swung particularly heavily to Labor in 2007, can be divided between a finely balanced centre and areas of Liberal strength at the northern and southern extremities, respectively around Batemans Bay and Merimbula. The smaller inland towns are solidly conservative, but Cooma is highly marginal. The area covered by the electorate has been remarkably little changed over the years: it has been locked into the state’s south-eastern corner since federation, and its geographic size has remained fairly consistent as increases in the size of parliament cancelled out the effects of relative population decline. Outside of the interruption from 2007 and 2010, when it expanded westwards to Tumut and Tumbarumba, its boundaries since 1998 have been almost identical to those it had before 1913.

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Categories: Federal Election 2013, Federal Politics 2010-2013

6688 Responses

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  1. where is that quote from.

    Doyley, William Congreve, The Mourning Bride (1697)

    by joe2 on May 24, 2012 at 10:12 pm

  2. The short discussion earlier about doing away with car registration stickers reminds us of one very important thing – certain politicians can huff and puff about HSU and credit cards but they are virtually impotent when it comes to the important influences on our lives.

    Registration stickers are redundant because the technology allows police on patrol to instantly determine if a car’s registration is current. In the end it is not for state governments to decide whether or not to retain stickers – the technology is making them as outmoded as dead-tree newspapers.

    Digital technology advances know no national boundaries – even North Korea is discovering this, according to a recent article.

    Our lives are being transformed and no amount of hindrance to progress (e.g. opposition to the NBN) will stop it happening eventually. Hindering progress just delays the inevitable and causes extreme inconvenience in the meantime.

    Do those who wish to hinder progress put their money where their mouth is? Do they use only pencil and paper for correspondence, keep a couple of fleet footed couriers on standby or use wax candles for illumination? I doubt it.

    In like manner, the natural world knows no national or political boundaries. You cannot legislate to tell the accumulating CO2 to just go away and behave itself. No amount of huffing and puffing in denial of global warming will stop it from happening and affecting the lives of this and future generations.

    by citizen on May 24, 2012 at 10:12 pm

  3. joe2 @750,

    Thanks for that.

    Cheers.

    by Doyley on May 24, 2012 at 10:14 pm

  4. David Donovan @davrosz 37m
    @samanthahawley No offence, but there is a lot more to the Thomson story than a mere Parliamentary cat-fight.

    David Donovan @davrosz 13m
    @leethel Sorry, I should have said nothing. I just wanted to let you know that the latest ACA theatrical is not the final word in any way.

    by victoria on May 24, 2012 at 10:15 pm

  5. Coorey article

    George‏@OverTheHill4

    Gold RT @beneltham Craig Thomson scandal like a bushfire, writes … errr … one of the arsonists http://bit.ly/LHvXZw

    by Schnappi on May 24, 2012 at 10:16 pm

  6. @jesswrightstuff Have you dug up anything else on the Ashby/Pyne relationship?

    Not sure if that is the right question. Pyne has been obviously let off the hook, by media.
    That dead end has allowed them to not to return to Mal Brough, who was even more dramatically caught out than Pyne. More fishing in that direction, methinks.

    by joe2 on May 24, 2012 at 10:21 pm

  7. Diogenes,

    “I’m reading about Augustus at the moment (in a book about da Vinci’s Vitruvian Man). He was a really amazing man. Really set the stage for the Roman Empire.”

    You have piqued my interest, will have to look for it.

    by Augustus on May 24, 2012 at 10:21 pm

  8. There are 9 investigations going on atm for an “alleged” $6000 spent on hooker. plus the 4 years of FWA. Yet, Tony Abbott wants more

    by The Finnigans on May 24, 2012 at 10:21 pm

  9. Well its up to the media to stop,,

    Are they getting our message.

    by my say on May 24, 2012 at 10:22 pm

  10. To me it appears Abbott is now wrapped closely with the attacks on Mr Thomson irrespective of what he tries to put across. Too late I would think.

    On the other hand the PM has stayed well out of it.

    Interesting day tomorrow.

    The PM chairs a meeting of the manufacturing group which will discuss with unions and employers the challenges ahead. Special emphasis on aluminium sector I believe and recent job losses.

    Any chance of a announcement re some form of assistance for that sector funded and bought forward out of the clean energy package ?

    No idea but it would present a stark contrast between the government and coalition on priorities.

    by Doyley on May 24, 2012 at 10:23 pm

  11. I sense a change of mood in Andrew Elder.
    He has been adamant that Rabbott will never be PM.
    Seemed to be a bit more wishy washy, perhaps, err, maybe…….

    by Dee on May 24, 2012 at 10:24 pm

  12. When I remember — oh, how vividly!— his shabby uniform and fierce, pathetic, innocent face, the complex side-issues of the war seem to fade away and I see clearly that there was at any rate no doubt as to who was in the right. In spite of power politics and journalistic lying, the central issue of the war was the attempt of people like this to win the decent life which they knew to be their birthright. It is difficult to think of this particular man’s probable end without several kinds of bitterness. Since I met him in the Lenin Barracks he was probably a Trotskyist or an Anarchist, and in the peculiar conditions of our time, when people of that sort are not killed by the Gestapo they are usually killed by the G.P.U. But that does not affect the long-term issues. This man’s face, which I saw only for a minute or two, remains with me as a sort of visual reminder of what the war was really about. He symbolizes for me the flower of the European working class, harried by the police of all countries, the people who fill the mass graves of the Spanish battlefields and are now, to the tune of several millions, rotting in forced-labour camps.
    I never saw the Italian militiaman again, nor did I ever learn his name. It can be taken as quite certain that he is dead. Nearly two years later, when the war was visibly lost, I wrote these verses in his memory:
    The Italian soldier shook my hand
    Beside the guard-room table;
    The strong hand and the subtle hand
    Whose palms are only able

    To meet within the sound of guns,
    But oh! what peace I knew then
    In gazing on his battered face
    Purer than any woman’s!

    For the flyblown words that make me spew
    Still in his ears were holy,
    And he was born knowing what I had learned
    Out of books and slowly.

    The treacherous guns had told their tale
    And we both had bought it,
    But my gold brick was made of gold —
    Oh! who ever would have thought it?

    Good luck go with you, Italian soldier!
    But luck is not for the brave;
    What would the world give back to you?
    Always less than you gave.

    Between the shadow and the ghost,
    Between the white and the red,
    Between the bullet and the lie,
    Where would you hide your head?

    For where is Manuel Gonzalez,
    And where is Pedro Aguilar,
    And where is Ramon Fenellosa?
    The earthworms know where they are.

    Your name and your deeds were forgotten
    Before your bones were dry,
    And the lie that slew you is buried
    Under a deeper lie;

    But the thing that I saw in your face
    No power can disinherit:
    No bomb that ever burst
    Shatters the crystal spirit.

    by Rossmore on May 24, 2012 at 10:25 pm

  13. Craig Thomson @DobellThommo 25s
    So offering someone $60 000 isn't gutter journalism because you haven't paid them yet? Really channel 9?

    by victoria on May 24, 2012 at 10:25 pm

  14. zoomster
    Posted Thursday, May 24, 2012 at 10:00 pm | Permalink
    It’s genuine bewilderment, but there you go.

    Why are you so angry with everyone?

    It’s genuine bewilderment.
    I’ve argued the toss with you before.
    You never give an inch; you’re not interested in compromise., my dear.

    And, you wonder why I’m angry.
    I’ve never been angry with everyone.
    I’m angry with you!
    Because your position is so inconsistent.

    by kezza2 on May 24, 2012 at 10:25 pm

  15. Another one of Psephos’s photographic masterpieces!

    Who is Evan Thornley?

    by confessions on May 24, 2012 at 10:25 pm

  16. Dee

    I agree. Elder is now thinking that Abbott may just get his hands on power and soon too.

    by victoria on May 24, 2012 at 10:26 pm

  17. Snap
    I suggest you listen to this radio programme or read the transcript. It is a discussion about the law and the social media and is quite interesting.
    http://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/lawreport/social-media/4026446

    by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on May 24, 2012 at 10:27 pm

  18. There are 9 investigations going on atm for an “alleged” $6000 spent on hooker. plus the 4 years of FWA. Yet, Tony Abbott wants more

    And Thomson will not talk to any of them and calls into question the one which is completed.

    arh! remember when Thomson was still claiming he was not a part of the FWA report. Those were the days, now we have global ninja spy quality excuses.

    by rummel on May 24, 2012 at 10:28 pm

  19. This is the book “Da Vinci’s Ghost: Genius, Obsession, and How Leonardo Created the World in His Own Image”

    http://www.amazon.com/Da-Vincis-Ghost-Obsession-Leonardo/dp/1439189234/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1337862152&sr=1-1

    by Diogenes on May 24, 2012 at 10:29 pm

  20. Dee @760,

    Interesting take.

    I too got a bit of that. My overall feeling is he believes that the next few weeks are really the ” final battle” and the last chance for Abbott.

    by Doyley on May 24, 2012 at 10:29 pm

  21. Doyley

    Precisely. We have been saying that the 1st July is the deadline for Abbott. Still another 37 days away. If slipper could get back in the chair, it would make the situation so much easier for the govt.

    by victoria on May 24, 2012 at 10:31 pm

  22. Puff

    Snap
    I suggest you listen to this radio programme or read the transcript. It is a discussion about the law and the social media and is quite interesting.

    Have put in favourites will look later,have just opened port bottle.

    by Schnappi on May 24, 2012 at 10:33 pm

  23. Augustus,

    Diogenes,

    “I’m reading about Augustus at the moment (in a book about da Vinci’s Vitruvian Man). He was a really amazing man. Really set the stage for the Roman Empire.”

    You have piqued my interest, will have to look for it.

    You should know all about it with a name like that!~ ;-)

    by scorpio on May 24, 2012 at 10:34 pm

  24. Thanks Diogenes, look forward to reading it.

    by Augustus on May 24, 2012 at 10:35 pm

  25. If I ever travel Europe you are coming with me as my guide.

    Oooh, I’d love to. Sadly I’ve come to accept that poor health will probably stop me; even worse, that I’d have to use guided tours Aaarrrrrrahgh! Or pay for offspring to look after me.

    I really do want to go back to Russia (& Byelo Russia); see the European states I’ve missed, like Czech R, Slovakia & Hungary; go back to Rome & Florence (again), Amsterdam (though I’d have to avoid my fave B&B of 3 visits, run by a gloriously crazy friendly gay male couple, full of their eclectic collections, hospitality & wit; but I’d never make it up the stai .. er, ladders) and Barcelona – I believe Gaudi’s cathedral is close to finished.

    I love wonderful old chaotic cities with their walls and gates, centuries/ millennia of old and avant garde architecture and history all muddled together. Love Roman traffic jams; Barcelona’s Ramblas – walking seawards to stand on the beach where Columbus stood, before sailing to the unknown; Londoners weaving through traffic on their cycles or “City men” eating icecreams in suits & bowler hats; England’s gothic cathdrals & standing stones; love standing on top of Dutch dykes, stunned by the differences between North Sea and land levels; love Münchener Beer halls & their bowls of delicious streaming soup.

    We could have bought a block of flats or share portfoilo for the money we spent on travel. Nyaaah. Very boring way to spend money, imo.

    by OzPol Tragic on May 24, 2012 at 10:36 pm

  26. victoria,

    Unless there is some new scandal just below the horizon I cannot see how Abbott can get there and even then it would to be at the core of government and involve corruption. I cannot see this government going down that path at any stage.

    The indies have stated that they will not judge Mr Thomson but leave it to the legal process. That will take some time and Mr Thomson gives every indication that he will fight all the way.

    I may be too optimistic but I think Abbott has stretched a bit too far.

    by Doyley on May 24, 2012 at 10:38 pm

  27. Who is Evan Thornley?

    Evan William Thornley (born 1964), former Australian politician and entrepreneur, was a Labor member of the Victorian Legislative Council for the Southern Metropolitan Region. He was a founder (with his wife, Tracey Ellery) and former Chairman and CEO of internet search company Looksmart Ltd.

    Thornley attended Scotch College is a graduate of the University of Melbourne, completing a Bachelor of Commerce and a Bachelor of Laws in 1991 after starting University in 1983. From 1991 to 1995 he was a consultant at McKinsey and Company, a management consultancy firm.

    Thornley is Chair of Per Capita and National Secretary of the Australian Fabian Society. He is a board member of the Brotherhood of St Laurence and the Chifley Research Centre, was a founding director of GetUp!, and a founding officer of the National Union of Students.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Evan_Thornley

    Elected to the Parliament of Victoria in 2006, he served as Parliamentary Secretary assisting the Premier on the National Reform Agenda and Innovation until his resignation on 31 December 2008. He was the richest member of the Victorian Parliament, with a net worth estimated at $54 million. He is a noted donor to various progressive causes, including the Australian Labor Party. He owns grazing property in western Victoria and four investment properties in Melbourne, Queensland and New South Wales, as well as a residence in Kew

    by scorpio on May 24, 2012 at 10:41 pm

  28. Doyley

    The msm and the coalition have thrown everything at the govt. they got Slipper out of the chair. Going hard on Thomson. Shorten was obviously in the frame until he went public. I am sure they are going to throw more.

    by victoria on May 24, 2012 at 10:42 pm

  29. may be too optimistic but I think Abbott has stretched a bit too fa dooley posted

    Itseems we have all met some one or many that feel this way ,

    This week, hope thats now the general feeling,
    Gradually over taking abbott

    by my say on May 24, 2012 at 10:43 pm

  30. Anyone got the herald sun,if so, page 6,a tweeter has made allegation cannot post in here ,but refers to page 6

    by Schnappi on May 24, 2012 at 10:44 pm

  31. David Donovan @davrosz 24s
    @leethel @davidbewart @NSWLabor The Libs have hopped into bed and snuggled up to Kathy Jackson - but did they do their due diligence first?

    by victoria on May 24, 2012 at 10:45 pm

  32. Schnappi,

    have just opened port bottle.

    I have finished the Port bottle and am well on the way through the starboard one! ;-)

    by scorpio on May 24, 2012 at 10:45 pm

  33. victoria,

    David Donovan @davrosz 24s
    @leethel @davidbewart @NSWLabor The Libs have hopped into bed and snuggled up to Kathy Jackson - but did they do their due diligence first?

    Something about fleas comes to mind here! ;-)

    by scorpio on May 24, 2012 at 10:46 pm

  34. OPT
    That is a wonderul set of experiences. I have only had the one trip to the UK with side trips to Paris and Rome, twenty years ago. I am envious. :) I am not sure I will ever get the chance to travel as much as I would like.

    by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on May 24, 2012 at 10:46 pm

  35. Any chance of a announcement re some form of assistance for that sector funded and bought forward out of the clean energy package ?

    Your question is almost an oxymoron. The aluminium industry is about the dirtiest there is when it comes to power consumption. No amount of green energy in this country will be able to sustain it.

    by blackburnpseph on May 24, 2012 at 10:47 pm

  36. I ever travel Europe you are coming with me as my guide.

    Oooh, I’d love to. Sadly I’ve come to accept that poor health will probably stop me; even worse, that I’d have to use guided tours Aaarrrrrrahgh! Or pay for offspring to look after me.

    OZPOLL you could do the rivers tour on the ships through all those countries or big batges realy
    There is a lady here thay takes tours just for older ladies, now on their own

    I know her quite well , if you woukd like any information just say,

    She is well travelled and around 60 herself

    by my say on May 24, 2012 at 10:47 pm

  37. Doyley

    I may be too optimistic but I think Abbott has stretched a bit too far

    Perhaps one scandal too far,all which are being questioned as setups

    by Schnappi on May 24, 2012 at 10:48 pm

  38. 776

    At some point during his short parliamentary career he sugested parents should get a vote for their children.

    by Tom the first and best on May 24, 2012 at 10:48 pm

  39. Which is the greater crime,

    Doing something wrong, or knowing someone has done something wrong and covering it up only to reveal it when it suits your agenda.

    Personally I think the later.

    by Augustus on May 24, 2012 at 10:48 pm

  40. In the past, we can rely on #OurABC to provide a counter to the extreme & grubbiness of the #MSM. Sadly, now #TheirABC is part of that

    by The Finnigans on May 24, 2012 at 10:50 pm

  41. victoria,

    I have no doubt but I think they continue to aim at the public which is the wrong target audience.

    The public cannot roll the government, only the cross bench can do that at this point and they are not stupid.

    Whatever the coalition throws it would have to be major and I just do not know that type of scandal is out there with this government.

    Only time will tell but labor is still standing and the public are slowly getting to the stage of having a gutful of it all.

    Interesting times.

    by Doyley on May 24, 2012 at 10:50 pm

  42. scorpio

    I have finished the Port bottle and am well on the way through the starboard one!

    Real head start,hope neither of us go over the bow

    by Schnappi on May 24, 2012 at 10:51 pm

  43. Has anyone mentioned that Evan Thornley is meant to be a great pal of Kathy Jackson.

    by blackburnpseph on May 24, 2012 at 10:52 pm

  44. Doyley

    Agreed. Even Wilkie appears to be backing the govt again

    by victoria on May 24, 2012 at 10:53 pm

  45. Don’t tell Rummell, but lots of my forebears were sent out here for being criminals, and very topically my 5xGreat Grand Mother was sentenced to death (commuted to transportation for life) for “assaulting” a man in a brothel.” I don’t think he was an MP, though.

    by swamprat on May 24, 2012 at 10:54 pm

  46. I found Elder’s piece sort of convoluted.
    Perhaps my comprehension skills but did he mean that if the government get the Coalition on the Ashby affair the Coalition is finished or the ALP will be finished if they go that way?

    by Dee on May 24, 2012 at 10:54 pm

  47. I am bloody NOT softening my Abbott-will-never-be-PM stance.

    We are in the last two months of this nonsense, and what I am saying is: calm down, hold the line and wait him out. I’ve been heartened to find slowly increasing numbers who agree with this:

    http://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10150805294087191&set=o.285957914803403&type=1&theater

    by Andrew Elder on May 24, 2012 at 10:56 pm

  48. blackburnpseph

    [Has anyone mentioned that Evan Thornley is meant to be a great pal of Kathy Jackson.}

    Is that the elite Victorian Private Schools thing!

    by swamprat on May 24, 2012 at 10:57 pm

  49. Did anyone watch Lateline?

    Brendan Brooks @HyperBrendan 13m
    that Wilton coverage by #lateline just then was extremely thought provoking, and should be a wake up call

    by victoria on May 24, 2012 at 10:57 pm

  50. Space Kidette, OzPol Tragic, Puff TMD, MySay

    When I win the lottery we will have a Ladies that Launch never-to-be-forgotten trip around Europe, and anywhere else that takes our fancy.

    I think it would be a complete and utter hoot!

    (Btw, my one and only chick is starting on her European discovery in just over six weeks’ time: first stop Barcelona, Paris for Bastille Day (my birthday, bless her), and then doing all sorts of things. Towards the end of the trip she will be in St Petersburg (Winter Palace OF COURSE), then Moscow and onto the Trans-Siberian to Beijing, then flying back to Oz.

    I hope that she has at least as good a time as I did on my first proper o/s adventure.

    by fiona on May 24, 2012 at 10:58 pm

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