Newspoll: 54-46 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes reports (though James J in comments had the numbers 45 minutes earlier) that Newspoll has the two-party preferred vote at 54-46, compared with 55-45 a fortnight ago and 59-41 the fortnight before. The primary votes are 32% for Labor (up two on last time), 46% for the Coalition (up one) and 12% for the Greens (steady). Julia Gillard’s approval rating is up three to 30% and her disapproval down three to 60%, while Tony Abbott is respectively down three and up four to 31% and 60%. Julia Gillard leads as preferred prime minister 40-37, reversing Abbott’s 40-36 lead last time.
Today’s Essential Research was less encouraging for Labor: it had them losing one of the points on two-party preferred which were clawed back over previous weeks, the result now at 57-43. Primary votes were 50% for the Coalition (up one), 33% for Labor (steady) and 10% for the Greens (steady). Other questions gauged views on the parties’ respective “attributes”, with all negative responses for Labor (chiefly “divided” and “will promise anything to win votes”) rating higher than all positives. The Liberal Party did rather better, rating well for “moderate” and “understands the problems facing Australia”. Bewilderingly, only slightly more respondents (35%) were willing to rate the state of the economy as “good” than “bad” (29%), with 33% opting for neither, although 43% rated the position of their household satisfactory against 28% unsatisfactory.
UPDATE (29/5/12): Morgan have broken the habit of a lifetime by publishing their weekend face-to-face poll results on a Tuesday, never having been known in the past to do it earlier than Thursday. My best guess is that they wished to offer a riposte to Newspoll’s relatively encouraging figures for Labor – “today’s Newspoll showing a swing to the ALP is simply unbelievable”, says Gary Morgan in the accompanying release – with their own results, which show Labor support at an all time low on every measure. The poll has Labor’s primary vote down 4.5% on the previous week to 27.5%, the Coalition up 3.5% to 49% and the Greens up 2.5% to 13%. This translates into 61.5-38.5 on respondent-allocated preferences and 58-42 on preferences as they flowed at the previous election.
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Tony Abbott locked out.
by guytaur on May 30, 2012 at 9:12 am
Guytaur,
A great day for democracy.
by Burgey on May 30, 2012 at 9:14 am
What are they voting on
by my say on May 30, 2012 at 9:14 am
lol is craig thomosn tormenting the coaliton by voting wiht them
by Meguire Bob on May 30, 2012 at 9:14 am
Just looking at the House it seems Albo’s motion might go down. If it does, he might try again and run down the clock.
by BK on May 30, 2012 at 9:14 am
That Hockey no longer be heard.
by Burgey on May 30, 2012 at 9:14 am
That’s not consistent with what we were hearing, guytaur.
by triton on May 30, 2012 at 9:15 am
guytaus, plz explain! Preeeeety Pleeease (beg, grovel)
by OzPol Tragic on May 30, 2012 at 9:15 am
triton
Do you see him?
by guytaur on May 30, 2012 at 9:16 am
OPT:
That might be the point, and it might be why some are seeing Abbott’s comment as somewhat of a compliment. It’s colourful language, but it appears to me as if he’s telling his members not to expect to stroll into office, that Gillard will fight them all the way.
I think it’s because of his propensity for violent imagery that this has been noted. It just goes in the mix.
by Aguirre on May 30, 2012 at 9:16 am
OzPolT
It bugs me, but in this instance I have to defend the Rabbott.
The original quote was correctly “lie down and die” but many Bludgers (and others) have been substituting their own “lay down and die” as the quote. Naughty.
It’s one of my OH’s pet peeves. Mine is substituting ‘bought’ for ‘brought’.
by lizzie on May 30, 2012 at 9:17 am
OPT
NewsRadio commentator noted that Anna Burke saw Abbott trying to enter and the point of time has expired lock the doors so he was prevented from entering.
by guytaur on May 30, 2012 at 9:17 am
OzPolT
He’s still ayoik, tho’.
by lizzie on May 30, 2012 at 9:18 am
No, but I’ve only got a tiny window on a PC. If he’s not there he’s probably paired. The dispute over the locked doors was definitely over a member locked in.
by triton on May 30, 2012 at 9:18 am
Robb
by guytaur on May 30, 2012 at 9:19 am
Eeyore up, Eeyore not speaking to the motion, Albo tormenting him.
by Aguirre on May 30, 2012 at 9:20 am
Robb is all over the place.
by BK on May 30, 2012 at 9:21 am
Ta Guytaur. I’ve the broadcast on now.
by OzPol Tragic on May 30, 2012 at 9:21 am
And now for the gag motion on Mr Mogadon.
by BK on May 30, 2012 at 9:22 am
Albo
The gag
by guytaur on May 30, 2012 at 9:22 am
Anna to Sloppy. “Read your Standing Orders!”
by BK on May 30, 2012 at 9:23 am
Did Labor win that due to Oppn incompetence?
by guytaur on May 30, 2012 at 9:23 am
National Greens newsletter describes Abbott perfectly as – “just irritating static”.
That about sums the man up – along with the strategy.
by lefty e on May 30, 2012 at 9:23 am
Labor lost the vote, but the time for Joe had run out (a flaw in the procedures IMO that a division takes away a speaker’s time).
by triton on May 30, 2012 at 9:24 am
Albo yelling something at the Opposition and Burke laughing loudly.
by BK on May 30, 2012 at 9:24 am
lefty e
Someone in Greens media certainly knows their stuff
.
by guytaur on May 30, 2012 at 9:25 am
Who would have thunk that @michellegrattan crying for Abbott again – The mystery that is Abbott’s unpopularity – http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/the-mystery-that-is-abbotts-unpopularity-20120529-1zhdn.html
by The Finnigans on May 30, 2012 at 9:26 am
In basketball parlance, we are into “junk time”. The time allowed for a SSSO will have expired after this division I would think.
by BK on May 30, 2012 at 9:26 am
NewsRadio commentator noted that Anna Burke saw Abbott trying to enter and the point of time has expired lock the doors so he was prevented
Must be an omen in that,:-)
1
by my say on May 30, 2012 at 9:26 am
Mine’s split infinitives; to a lesser extent (& probably only because US unis & “quality” mainly journal publishers insist on it) failure to use the possessive case before a gerund.
by OzPol Tragic on May 30, 2012 at 9:28 am
It is now official & in the Hansard. The Opposition has accepted Thomson’s “tainted” vote as Joe Hockey said they would. Sham, shame #auspol
by The Finnigans on May 30, 2012 at 9:30 am
Seemed hung over, but it could be medication or age. He makes me feel young, though he’s considerably younger than I
by OzPol Tragic on May 30, 2012 at 9:31 am
Going to be a fun QT. Every attack regarding Thomson is going to be replied with “You accepted his vote”.
by guytaur on May 30, 2012 at 9:32 am
Hilarious. Thomson is still a stirrer!
by OzPol Tragic on May 30, 2012 at 9:33 am
yeah guytaur
You have to say that thomson has still got his humour, by voting wiht the coalition
by Meguire Bob on May 30, 2012 at 9:34 am
OPT
I wouldn’t want to rewrite To boldly go…, though.
by triton on May 30, 2012 at 9:34 am
OPT
Antidepressant medication. If he is drinking then likely on way to suicide, so hope its the former.
by guytaur on May 30, 2012 at 9:34 am
Pet grammar peeve: there seems to be a whole generation of Australians who use “loose” instead of “lose”. Mostly from Victoria as well, from my observations.
by autocrat on May 30, 2012 at 9:34 am
Another SSSO! Hunt.
by triton on May 30, 2012 at 9:34 am
Can someone please take a deep breath and explain what happened with: what Thomson voted with the IPA on; and why Abbott was locked out?
Ta.
by Son of foro on May 30, 2012 at 9:34 am
Wow, Joe Hockey is true to his words, the Opposition has now accepted Thomson’s tainted vote, TWICE!!!!!!!!
by The Finnigans on May 30, 2012 at 9:35 am
Time has expired.
Now Man-Boy Hunt on an SSSO.
This is developing into a farce!
Off to the flatlands with Mrs BK for the day.
Enjoy QT fellow Bludgers!
by BK on May 30, 2012 at 9:35 am
Hunt SSSO. Here we go again.
by OzPol Tragic on May 30, 2012 at 9:35 am
Thomson has just egged on the opps. Is the unhingement going to go the next level?
by victoria on May 30, 2012 at 9:36 am
Even better: you accepted his vote as a replacement for Abbott’s!!
by autocrat on May 30, 2012 at 9:36 am
Hunt didn’t even bother seeking leave to move his motion before moving the suspension.
by triton on May 30, 2012 at 9:36 am
Stuff up by Oppn on motion misleading the House.
by guytaur on May 30, 2012 at 9:37 am
Mr Sheridan gets it about 90% right on Syria in this morning’s The Australian:
(1) China does not want to interfere in principle.
(2) Russia and China are very wary since the Libyan War. This is correct, but Mr Sheridan did not explain that this is becasue the West turned ‘protecting civilians’ into regime change.
(3) NATO does not have the will to intervene militarily. This is correct. Europe is broke and the US has belatedly realized that spending around $1,000,000,000,000 on the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan has been a mistake. The US also has an unresolved issue with around 800,000 veterans from those wars with a potential to sue for disability payments. To gain an idea of what this might mean: each $10,000 in annual payments per disabled person per decade would roughly quadruple the total cost of the two Iraq wars and the Afghanistan War. But the neocons and the war mongers will not talk about this. Neither does Mr Sheridan, even if it is a material consideration for a decision about yet a US war in Syria.
(4) Mr Carr has got the response right.
(5) (shorter) It is a regional fight.
(6) Mr Assad jr is around about as evilly murderous as Mr Assad sr.
(7) He is right to mention the words ‘Alawite’ and ‘Shia’. This civil war is, in part, sectarian.
Mr Sheridan is also wrong because he sort of wistfully implies, without actually saying it that military intervention might be a good thing. He learned late in the game from the Afghanistan War when he belatedly turned from being a neocon rah rah war monger into someone who realized that we need to get the buggery out of Afghanistan. But he has yet to apply this lesson to yet another potential military adventure. While he mentions other ME nations, he mentions neither Turkey nor Israel. Both are active players in Syria. But we know Mr Sheridan will never, ever say anything negative about Israel, its activities or its policies. But he also ommitted to say something negative about Turkey, so space might have been a consideration.
He is also wrong not to mention that some of the fractured Syrian opposition groups are just as evilly murderous as Mr Assad jr. It is just that in general these groups do not have the same sort of means that Mr Assad has. Yet.
Naturally Mr Sheridan does not mention the contribution of the colonial history of Syria, the nature of its formation, nor the history and nature of Israel and Palestine, as having any bearing on the current circumstances.
The west (France in particular) has clean hands, you see.
Anyway, the good news is that with Mr Obama embroiled in an election, the NATO countries broke, and some learning from a series of lost wars, the west might forego this opportunity to do something militarily stupid.
At last.
Ironically, in the same edition, there is an article by Mr Martin Fletcher, headed, ‘Post the revolution, liberated Libya shows it still has a dark side.’
The subbie who put the heading in may have a richly multi-layered approach to irony. Or s/he might just be completely stupid.
There is some detail about the town of Mushashya; well, former town of Mushashya. It used to have 8,000 citizens. Now it has none. Were these some of the citizens that the west ‘protected’?
Not everything has changed, however. Eviction, torture and murder by out-of-control militias is still the order of the day. Oh, and oil production is back to pre ‘liberation’ levels.
by Boerwar on May 30, 2012 at 9:38 am
Mine’s “free reign”. Don’t know why that particular one, amongst all the crimes against our language, but it really annoys me.
That and apostrophes.
by Aguirre on May 30, 2012 at 9:39 am
SOF
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by victoria on May 30, 2012 at 9:40 am