Newspoll: 54-46 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes reports (though James J in comments had the numbers 45 minutes earlier) that Newspoll has the two-party preferred vote at 54-46, compared with 55-45 a fortnight ago and 59-41 the fortnight before. The primary votes are 32% for Labor (up two on last time), 46% for the Coalition (up one) and 12% for the Greens (steady). Julia Gillard’s approval rating is up three to 30% and her disapproval down three to 60%, while Tony Abbott is respectively down three and up four to 31% and 60%. Julia Gillard leads as preferred prime minister 40-37, reversing Abbott’s 40-36 lead last time.
Today’s Essential Research was less encouraging for Labor: it had them losing one of the points on two-party preferred which were clawed back over previous weeks, the result now at 57-43. Primary votes were 50% for the Coalition (up one), 33% for Labor (steady) and 10% for the Greens (steady). Other questions gauged views on the parties’ respective “attributes”, with all negative responses for Labor (chiefly “divided” and “will promise anything to win votes”) rating higher than all positives. The Liberal Party did rather better, rating well for “moderate” and “understands the problems facing Australia”. Bewilderingly, only slightly more respondents (35%) were willing to rate the state of the economy as “good” than “bad” (29%), with 33% opting for neither, although 43% rated the position of their household satisfactory against 28% unsatisfactory.
UPDATE (29/5/12): Morgan have broken the habit of a lifetime by publishing their weekend face-to-face poll results on a Tuesday, never having been known in the past to do it earlier than Thursday. My best guess is that they wished to offer a riposte to Newspoll’s relatively encouraging figures for Labor – “today’s Newspoll showing a swing to the ALP is simply unbelievable”, says Gary Morgan in the accompanying release – with their own results, which show Labor support at an all time low on every measure. The poll has Labor’s primary vote down 4.5% on the previous week to 27.5%, the Coalition up 3.5% to 49% and the Greens up 2.5% to 13%. This translates into 61.5-38.5 on respondent-allocated preferences and 58-42 on preferences as they flowed at the previous election.
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
I’m sorry if I offended you, you read as both ‘them’ and ‘jealous’. I can’t remember how we used names pre-Crikey but post Crikey I had some technical issues with devices and crikey logins, but I migrated to pre-crikey from OzPolitics when that shut down, William probably remembers it was when his nice place filled with bogans.
Don’t tell William but it was a bit snobby at the time, but since I came it has lots of lowbrow moments, at least some of which I contributed too.
by WeWantPaul on May 29, 2012 at 1:10 am
Shows on @ 182
Not only that a senior public servant I know who worked with Hockey when he was a Minister said that the matey matey act is BS and he is a nasty piece of work.
by CO on May 29, 2012 at 1:11 am
Surprisement.
by WeWantPaul on May 29, 2012 at 1:12 am
Bingo. This is a serious problem for the Noalition, and i think probably the main reason that they may, possibly, find themselves in the unenviable position going to an election with
as leader.
If they had any sense they would replace him now and get the splits over, done and dealt with while their polling is good. Face it, the MSM aren’t going to try and widen the splits, play up the damage, as they would with the ALP.
I suspect they would get behind Morrison. Loathsome excreta that he is, if they fall into line behind him they can stick with their exploit BOATS position. However, i dont think Morrison is as firmly identified with the
brain-farts that laughingly pass for LNP policy on the economy, carbon price, MRRT, and NBN?? So, he may be able to take more rational positions on those and try and neutralize those issues to some extent.
And Mesma can be a Loyal Girl to yet another LOTO.
The longer they do nothing the more vulnerable they are when the polls tighten. So, from my perspective, more power to dAh
!!!
by imacca on May 29, 2012 at 1:13 am
THE TREND!
by ShowsOn on May 29, 2012 at 1:14 am
The PM was in America over the weekend/Monday and flew back Tuesday, landing home early Wednesday morning.
She stated that she was fully briefed when she arrived home on Wednesday. The PM has never said directly in a statement that she did not know about the scheme until Wednesday. It has been the MSM which have run with that based on “reports” and a rant by Howes but at no time has the PM actually stated that herself.
The response by Mr Bowen today fits the timeline and does not dispute what the PM has stated herself.
If anyone can produce a statement by the PM to the contrary then I will stand corrected. A statement by her not “reports indicate” or ” sources say. “
by Doyley on May 29, 2012 at 1:14 am
Before bed it has been trendy to hate Tony Blair, particularly on the left, but I thought he was very good tonight on the big L show.
by WeWantPaul on May 29, 2012 at 1:15 am
WeWantPaul thats cool I was curious as to where you thought I was coming from for you said I was jealous
Yes the old OzPolitics days were interesting, more robust and sometimes more willing lol
by mexicanbeemer on May 29, 2012 at 1:15 am
If the rumours surrounding Ashby have truth, then it will be the end of Abbott.
by Mick Collins on May 29, 2012 at 1:15 am
Go through and read his domestic agenda. It was a perfectly modern social democratic administration.
The thing that pisses people off is the fact he supported Bush on Iraq.
by ShowsOn on May 29, 2012 at 1:16 am
A change of liberal leadership would see julie bishop under her 5th liberal leader ,do not see a gullible public seeing as anything else as a joke,hehe no blanket on the ground.
by Schnappi on May 29, 2012 at 1:17 am
This is a headline in the OO????? WTF! Tones will be a worries
fur sure.
by imacca on May 29, 2012 at 1:21 am
Possible Fiberal leaders
Turnbull, somewhat popular with Labor voters but despised by the Fiberals and their core voting constituency.
Scott MORRISon, loved by the core fiberal constituency (red-necked bogans), seen as a joke by everybody else.
Suddenly, things don’t look so bad, especially as Abbott might not be around that much longer
by Mick Collins on May 29, 2012 at 1:21 am
Look forward to the next poll with 3.2 million pensioners having extra money,they vote,and they economise ,so do not bother saying what about the cost of living rises of the toxic tax against companies,they grey vote are intelligent.
by Schnappi on May 29, 2012 at 1:24 am
And Shanahan no less!
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/voters-unhappy-with-tony-abbott-as-julia-gillard-steadies-ship/story-fn59niix-1226370611943
by Tobe on May 29, 2012 at 1:25 am
Mixk some would argue that Can do, Barry and Ted all come from the wrong end of the Liberal Party yet they are now premiers.
by mexicanbeemer on May 29, 2012 at 1:25 am
Mr Abbott’s personal support is now at its lowest level since he became Opposition Leader in 2009, with dissatisfaction hitting a record high 60 per cent.
…..
Satisfaction with Mr Abbott fell from 34 per cent after the budget to 31 per cent – the equal lowest he has recorded – as dissatisfaction rose four percentage points to his highest ever figure of 60 per cent.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/voters-unhappy-with-tony-abbott-as-julia-gillard-steadies-ship/story-fn59niix-1226370611943
by Mick Collins on May 29, 2012 at 1:26 am
Sorry Mick I made a dogs breakfast of your name spelling
by mexicanbeemer on May 29, 2012 at 1:27 am
MB
True, but I wonder if Turnbulls appeal might have waned abit. He seems to be a federal Faillieu, totally out of touch and ineffective
by Mick Collins on May 29, 2012 at 1:29 am
MB thats all right,
I’m off to bed
by Mick Collins on May 29, 2012 at 1:30 am
Turnbull may turn out to be just the same as Ted, from a policy perceptive he has a problem, Tone has done such a good job of talking up the negatives, doom and gloom that 2013 might be an election that the Liberals hope too lose for there so called politics are currently heading them down a dead end street
by mexicanbeemer on May 29, 2012 at 1:32 am
Think La Stupenda is trying to save her job.
Jansel@Jansel17
I’m hearing rumours, Grattan might have the inside story to the Libs leadership challenge.Apparently JBishop will challenge TA soon
by Schnappi on May 29, 2012 at 1:42 am
I cant see how the Libs can go to Turnbull.
If they do, he will totally neutralize Carbon Price / Tax as an issue and the Fiberal base will go apesh#t. How will the TeaBaggers of Bernardis ilk react?? LOL!
The Convoy of Incontinence people will probably give up and emigrate (hmmm….a sliver lining??).
And, they would have to admit that the
months were actually a big mistake. How to do that when they are polling well?? Libs are in an apparently good but very fragile position.
If it turns out that substance even starts to look like it trumps “style” (actually frantic hysteria) then the Libs are going to shatter like glass.
by imacca on May 29, 2012 at 1:44 am
PLEASE DOG LET IT BE SO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Sorry, must be channeling Shows there a bit.
by imacca on May 29, 2012 at 1:46 am
imacca
think the slipper thing might hurt labor,but if slipper proves innocence then a lot of liberals are in deep shiot.
by Schnappi on May 29, 2012 at 1:47 am
Here are some totally unscientific polls.
My favourite?
http://www.abc.net.au/news/thedrum/polls/
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on May 29, 2012 at 1:51 am
More if the AFP dont prove his guilt on the withdrawn CabCharge accusations.
The harassment allegations are a bit more iffy, but at the moment i’m thinking that they look pretty shaky. Standard of proof being different and all that.
Oh Dog, can you imagine if Bishop becomes LOTO. Some one will have to make an:
“out from under the useless men at last” joke.
by imacca on May 29, 2012 at 1:53 am
Seems the boot had to be put in the final good line of article.
http://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/1654329/Labor-Gillard-get-poll-boost
by Schnappi on May 29, 2012 at 1:55 am
Puff
Should have been in my neck of the woods. would have been 99.99% my one vote against says all,an abbott hater.
by Schnappi on May 29, 2012 at 2:15 am
In Vic I suspect that Bailleau is a drag on the Lib vote. as things are unravelling for him faster than expected ..
..as the other state premiers up north may also prove to be
There is a long history of Fed Govts losing support due to the unpopularity of a State premier..or Govt..
In the end Joh costs the tories votes in Qland …and in 1990 Labor suffered a big loss federally when the Cain-Kirner Govt was so unpopular at the time of the Fed elections…these state tories gonts may help Gillard in the long run
by deblonay on May 29, 2012 at 2:29 am
Murdochs lack of integrity will remain.
http://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/1649339/Murdoch-has–selective-amnesia—inquiry
by Schnappi on May 29, 2012 at 2:34 am
Hi Graveyard shift people. Here one on the ABC site
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-05-28/fair-work-australia-vice-president-deeply-involved-in-hsu-fight/4038274
by Leroy on May 29, 2012 at 2:52 am
I don’t think there’s anything in that JB challenging tweet, had a look at that tweeter and who they got it from, and seems to been picked up & misinterpreted from a series of joke tweets, with different names thrown around.
by Leroy on May 29, 2012 at 2:56 am
That looks like evidence of a classic Aussie sense of humour to me.
Good old Joh was undoubtedly “effective” at getting roads built for his mates and keeping the chooks fed and those 3 person riots under control.
by Jackol on May 29, 2012 at 2:59 am
http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/science/120528/global-warming-skeptics-not-due-lack-education-culture
by Leroy on May 29, 2012 at 3:09 am
Does Abbott’s head explode at 53-47? Roll on June 12th
by ruawake on May 29, 2012 at 4:38 am
I’m in two minds about knocking off Abbott – he’s badly wounded and a strategy of just reminding voters of this while attacking Pyne (re’ Ashby/Slipper) and Hockey (exploiting division with Robb a smacking him where possible) might be a viable option.
Turnbull is a concern and I wouldn’t want him to be Lib leader – he, despite his flaws, would be attractive to the swinging centre voters that Lobor needs and if he was Liberal leader at a general election even the nutty right will vote for him and business will, with reservations, support him. Turnbull should be smacked on the head whenever he sticks it up and reminding people he’s in favour of the carbon ‘tax’ and continued suggestions that he’s actually in favour of the NBN should keep him off balance and make it hard for him, inside the Libs, to get support to challenge.
If, however, Turnbull is not in the running then I’m very in favour of any of the below suggestions, made here last night, for the Libs.
I’m torn about which of the three suggestions I’m most in favour of but Bishop, Morrison then Hockey would be my preference.
All three can be taken down and if the Libs picked any of them they are then stuck with them until the election. It also solves the removal Kev-07 problem neatly – ie Libs ‘do it too’.
I’d expect any one of them as Lib leader will cause havoc within the Coalition.
Labor needs to be running a consistant line on Ashby/Slipper and Thomson re’ deliberative and well based justice – something like ‘Liberal Party? – More like a Lynch Party’.
Anyone other than Turnbull.
Hockey blocked Shows? How surprising!
by CTar1 on May 29, 2012 at 5:40 am
Senior Fair Work official embroiled in HSU fighting
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-05-28/fair-work-australia-vice-president-deeply-involved-in-hsu-fight/4038274
Let’s hope Uhlmann pursues this – he seems to have the documents given to the NSW strikeforce.
The FWA President is skating around this – ‘Not my responsibility’ (among other things) – and Abetz was more than happy to encourage him in that.
Save yourself, Toolmann!!
by CTar1 on May 29, 2012 at 5:52 am
morning all
not surprised by this newspoll – australians i believe are sick and tired of the antics of the ridiculous abbott – but poor michelle still clutching at straws…
http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/politics/semantics-cannot-hide-rift-in-cabinet-20120528-1zffj.html
by Lyne Lady on May 29, 2012 at 5:59 am
I think the polls reflect a competition between Gillard (who unlike Rudd didn’t sell her soul to Murdock) and the press.
And the press are losing.
by fredn on May 29, 2012 at 6:10 am
Good morning, Bludgers.
Despite one of the most hysterical and dishonest of Australian MSM pre- and during-Newspolling, following last fortnight’s prepolling over the top hysteria about Thomson …
Oh what a beautiful headline! Voters unhappy with Tony Abbott as Julia Gillard steadies ship PPM Gillard 40% Abbott 37%
And oh what a beautiful admission:
If there’s one thing which should send shock-waves through Australia, it’s an alternative Opposition leader and opposition, and the nation’s MSM, trashing every Australian’s most precious democratic protection by screaming Guilty until proven innocent to my satisfaction.
More seriously for Abbott, the Ashby & Thomson affairs have rebounded on him by 5 points in the 2PP in 2 Newspolls.
After the PM’s shutting down QT yesterday just as Tony was rising to begin his Daily Rant – magic! I missed the Dummy spit when ABC suddenly turned off and I couldn’t switch to HoR broadcast in time. Coises!
BTW, did enjoy Leveson last night, until I could stay awake no longer. I’ve not seen a former Prime Minister, or even a current one, held to account so subtly for so long. Whatever one thinks of Tony Blair as a man or PM, he’s always well-prepared, articulate, and still with more than a dash of that ever-present charismatic grin.
Also laughed at his comments on Paul Keating!
by OzPol Tragic on May 29, 2012 at 6:22 am
OPT – I watched. Agree with you.
Blair showed last night in front of Leveson why he was such a dominant politician.
WTTE ‘At the time I believed, rightly or wrongly, that …’ ie judge me in retrospect if you want but I did what I thought was right at the time. Delivered in a steady, calm and convincing manner.
Great political skills and and the contrast with the current bunch during the rest of the week should be stark.
by CTar1 on May 29, 2012 at 6:25 am
Puff 225
Re the Drum polls: what’s clear from the figures is that the viewers of the Drum are mainly progressive voters.
Probably that inference could be extended to ABC viewers in general.
by dedalus on May 29, 2012 at 6:32 am
STOP THE #THOMSON – failed, STOP THE #BISONs failed – now back to the old faithful STOP THE BOATS #auspol
by The Finnigans on May 29, 2012 at 6:40 am
what the coaliton supporters are forgetting its not abbott who has the coalition primary and 2 pp high, its newsltd propaganda
if they conceded Abbott is a lost watch the coalition primary and 2 pp move down sharply
by Meguire Bob on May 29, 2012 at 6:41 am
fredn
a very good comment – i believe the press underestimated gillard from the start – as did a lot of people – i also believe she will win out in this battle – so long as the caucus and backbenchers remain united. she is a very determined woman and unlike rudd is not into self promotion – she really has the welfare of the country at heart
interesting abc bfast obviously haven’t read the australian – not one word on newspoll
by Lyne Lady on May 29, 2012 at 6:42 am
Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
Well, well! Abbott on the decline. Good stuff.
When watching the security breech a the Leveson inquiry and seeing the calm way with which the situation was dealt I couldn’t help wondering what would have happened in similar circumstances in the US.
A wonderful example of the difference between price and cost.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-05-29/army-boots-fall-apart-in-hot-weather/4038572
Bruce Petty sums up Australia’s ignorance of the BISONs.
http://images.smh.com.au/2012/05/28/3330397/Petty_cartoon2-620×0.jpg
A beauty from David Pope.
http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/opinion/cartoons/david-pope-20120214-1t3j0.html
Ron Tandberg continues on the Abbott perception.
http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/opinion/cartoons/ron-tandberg-20090910-fixc.html
Read it and weep.
http://www.theage.com.au/national/we-failed-you-hastie-boss-tells-workers-20120528-1zfft.html
by BK on May 29, 2012 at 6:46 am
In this stage of political cycle & with all shits thrown at PM Gillard, 54-46 2PP will shook Menzies House to the core. #Peak Abbott it is
by The Finnigans on May 29, 2012 at 6:49 am
Having just read Puff’s Drum roll post #255, I checked back to Drum’s home page to find this “gem” I hadn’t (and now glad I hadn’t) read yesterday.
And your 1993 polls indicated you would the election in a huge landslide, right Mr Hewson?
Result: HoR 2PP: labor 51.44%, Lib/Nat 48.56%; Seats Lab 80 (+2), Lib/Nat 65 (-4)
by OzPol Tragic on May 29, 2012 at 6:50 am
BK, yay, i got mention by Bruce. That will send Showy berserk as he got mention only in the lowly Hansard that no one reads.
Not to mention, i also got mention in theWest yesterday. Ya, ya, yay
by The Finnigans on May 29, 2012 at 6:52 am