Newspoll: 54-46 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes reports (though James J in comments had the numbers 45 minutes earlier) that Newspoll has the two-party preferred vote at 54-46, compared with 55-45 a fortnight ago and 59-41 the fortnight before. The primary votes are 32% for Labor (up two on last time), 46% for the Coalition (up one) and 12% for the Greens (steady). Julia Gillard’s approval rating is up three to 30% and her disapproval down three to 60%, while Tony Abbott is respectively down three and up four to 31% and 60%. Julia Gillard leads as preferred prime minister 40-37, reversing Abbott’s 40-36 lead last time.
Today’s Essential Research was less encouraging for Labor: it had them losing one of the points on two-party preferred which were clawed back over previous weeks, the result now at 57-43. Primary votes were 50% for the Coalition (up one), 33% for Labor (steady) and 10% for the Greens (steady). Other questions gauged views on the parties’ respective “attributes”, with all negative responses for Labor (chiefly “divided” and “will promise anything to win votes”) rating higher than all positives. The Liberal Party did rather better, rating well for “moderate” and “understands the problems facing Australia”. Bewilderingly, only slightly more respondents (35%) were willing to rate the state of the economy as “good” than “bad” (29%), with 33% opting for neither, although 43% rated the position of their household satisfactory against 28% unsatisfactory.
UPDATE (29/5/12): Morgan have broken the habit of a lifetime by publishing their weekend face-to-face poll results on a Tuesday, never having been known in the past to do it earlier than Thursday. My best guess is that they wished to offer a riposte to Newspoll’s relatively encouraging figures for Labor – “today’s Newspoll showing a swing to the ALP is simply unbelievable”, says Gary Morgan in the accompanying release – with their own results, which show Labor support at an all time low on every measure. The poll has Labor’s primary vote down 4.5% on the previous week to 27.5%, the Coalition up 3.5% to 49% and the Greens up 2.5% to 13%. This translates into 61.5-38.5 on respondent-allocated preferences and 58-42 on preferences as they flowed at the previous election.
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Guytaur @ 3241
You can erroneously compare to whatever you want but the idiocy was in your conclusion in an attempt to cover your tracks. Barak was by far the most giving of any Israeli PM when it came to solving the conflict and Arafat’s answer was a planned wave of terror. But in your twisted world Barak’s a warmonger. I would suggest to you, and to your fellow storm-trooper deblonay, that you will never be satisfied until the Jewish nation ceases to exist. The rest is semantics.
by Mick77 on May 30, 2012 at 11:58 pm
fiona
Not the green writng links
by Schnappi on May 30, 2012 at 11:58 pm
fiona
mean the 3 word green writing links
by Schnappi on May 30, 2012 at 11:59 pm
Another editorial?
by rishane on May 31, 2012 at 12:00 am
Very serious.
The non economists that chase wildly after endangered bisons would not have any idea why it is serious though.
Not one little bit.
by deflationite on May 31, 2012 at 12:00 am
And yet they will still be wondering whether to do anything due to the polling. Its been said before and i agree that as soon as Abbott goes, the splits will open right up.
If they dont have a leader ready to step up who can heal those (or at least command absolute obedience), AND get the policy house in order, they are farkked.
by imacca on May 31, 2012 at 12:01 am
Re Pilger and Burchett 1945 1975
____________
In i945 Burchett was one of the first correspondents to enter Japan after it’s surrender and the first to go to Hiroshima….if i recall …alone by train from a ruined Tokio
I still recall my boyhood reading of his horrific accounts from Hiroshima and the terrible civilian survivors and their conditions as he saw them …still with skin peeling off like paper(the dead were in a way .lucky !)
Burchett was the first to tell my generation abd the world… the truth about nucleur war…which the US tried to conceal as long as possible,,,though in the end we all learned the truth
The US political class never forgave him..Imperialists are great haters ! ask the Iranians
In 1975 it was Pilger with his horrific accounts(many have forgotten or don’t know)of the slaughter by Pol Pot in a Cambodia0now Kampuchea
The Hawke Govt in Australia and notably Gareth Evens …continued to recognise Pol Pot’s gang in line with US and Chinese policies …against the Vietnamese regime of the time..which had liberated Cambodia and installed a new – Pro-Hanoi Regime and ended Pol Pot’s regime
Later it all collapsed
Pilger did the world a great service with his horriific accounts
…but then when he spoke of the horrors of the US war in Iraq he was attacked by the usual suspects.( as he was after his accounts of the use of phosphorus by the Israelis on civilians in Gaza.).and I recall rarther venomously ,,, attacked by Hawke…never a man to forgive a critic …even if the critic was right !
by deblonay on May 31, 2012 at 12:02 am
What are the odds of RAbbott lasting out the year ?
Personally, as much as I detest the rodent, he has done remarkably to get the Fiberals to the position in the polls they are, despite his pv. Yet he hasn’t been able to knock over the Government or the PM. His antics in parliament have beetoday have been bizzare to say the least, and his pv is getting so dire that it must start having an adverse effect on the Fiberals Primary Vote sooner or latter.
So, how long before his own party gets fed up ?
If they do pull the plug on him, who do they replace him with ?
Pyne, Hockey, Turnbull, Mesma, Scott MORRISon ?
by Mick Collins on May 31, 2012 at 12:03 am
Mick77
I have never called for Israel to cease to exist. In fact I particularly made my critique regarding my view of Israel trying to avoid the Two State solution. This is the opposite to wanting Isreal to cease to exist. So your logic fails on a most basic level by not comprehending something.
Thus everything you argue and try and discredit me and my arguments by making out I am an extremist just shows that is what you are.
by guytaur on May 31, 2012 at 12:03 am
How did this person know I am born mid july,royal commission needed.
by Schnappi on May 31, 2012 at 12:06 am
Schnappi,
This one seems to work:
http://www.google.com.au/imgres?hl=en&biw=1024&bih=658&gbv=2&tbm=isch&tbnid=Yu0_sn5B5THHLM:&imgrefurl=http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/blogs/question-time/once-more-a-cranky-chamber-20120530-1zj61.html&docid=YR9JaOeF98c5NM&itg=1&imgurl=http://images.theage.com.au/2012/05/30/3337243/1_Pyne-20120530154732798978-420×0.jpg&w=420&h=304&ei=0BXGT8f9OoWyiQej_oyeAw&zoom=1
by fiona on May 31, 2012 at 12:06 am
Carney -
Is there any price PM won’t pay to hang on? Apparently not
Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/politics/is-there-any-price-pm-wont-pay-to-hang-on-apparently-not-20120529-1zh9d.html#ixzz1wMUw9hyz
by Gary on May 31, 2012 at 12:07 am
deflationite – Why do you say its very serious, are you suggesting that the worst is ahead and the storm clouds from Europe are getting darker or are you pointing to something else
by mexicanbeemer on May 31, 2012 at 12:07 am
Never forget the use of US military force along the cambodia vietnam border.
by deflationite on May 31, 2012 at 12:07 am
Gone by end November i think. If they haven’t removed him by then it will be because they just haven’t got anyone who enough of the rabble will get behind to replace him. I reckon that Bernardi and his ilk will be their biggest problem.
I hope they would replace him with Mesma.
But i think they will replace him with Morrison.
by imacca on May 31, 2012 at 12:09 am
OK Guytaur – does your “2-state” solution call for 5-6 million Arabs to flood into Israel so there’ll be in fact 2 Arab states, which is the standard Arab version of a 2 state solution, or do you support, as in the UN partition, a Jewish state and an Arab state (which the Arabs rejected btw)? The former idea, which will never happen because Israel refuses to commit suicide, means Israel ceasing to exist, correct?
by Mick77 on May 31, 2012 at 12:12 am
fiona
Yay,got that one but it does not enlarge the lizard tongue.
by Schnappi on May 31, 2012 at 12:12 am
Mick C I would be happy if Turnbull got another chance but its not likely unless the polls get below 50%. At present I think Labor is sticky in the low 30′s and the Coalition in the mid-50′s so can’t see a quick change. Both leaders are disliked but the difference is Abbott hasn’t made any key committments he has broken.
I think we will stumble through to the next election and have no confidence either way who will end up winning if either. It may end up another hung parliament with Katter holding the balance of power
by davidwh on May 31, 2012 at 12:13 am
Imacca #3264
Logic would say that they replace him with Turnbull , but the Fibs seem to despise their normal members.
Mesma would be interesting
Cant see Morrison being that popular outside of the Bogan infested cronulla
by Mick Collins on May 31, 2012 at 12:13 am
Yes. The worst is ahead.
We are in the beginnings of a global deflationary event. Much bigger than the 1930s depression in lots of ways.
There are a lot more banks and multinationals that sovereign states can owe money to these days.
Sovereign states are in the hock like no time in history.
Debts need to be paid.
We are transitioning from an economy where demand is sourced largely from debt to an economy where demand is reduced by the payment of debt.
It is very simple but everyone missed it because economics is dominated by one paradigm which cannot be questioned. Rationalism.
The cost of dogma.
by deflationite on May 31, 2012 at 12:14 am
imacca
Have more rage against that rascist and caller for redneck votes,than puny abbott,actuallythink abbott finished end of july.
by Schnappi on May 31, 2012 at 12:15 am
Rant rant rant
__________
Mick 77
Your arrogance is astounding
The “stormtropper” stuff is rather funny and quite silly
but as you said the other night you are
“:obsessed:” and it shows
you have not said anything about the Jewish writers who criticise Israel or it’s extreme rightwing regime
I heard Miriam Margolyes last night ,on QandA …,,a UK jewish lady/actress .. make a sharp critique of Israeli policies and spoke of her dismay
She’s a member of a UK Jewish group called “Enough” which is speaking out for the people of Gaza…is she perhaps a self-hating Jew too ??
by deblonay on May 31, 2012 at 12:15 am
Schnappi,
If you right-click on the pic you can select the “save” option, and it will end up in your “My Pictures” folder. Go to that folder, open the pic, and select “full screen” and you will see Pyne’s tongue in all its glory.
by fiona on May 31, 2012 at 12:15 am
David WH
Thats the point, the way Abbott is going he is going to drag down their vote.
I cannot see how they can sustain a 2pp of c54 % when their leader is seen as an absolute nutter (and his antics today were that of a nutcase) with catostrophically high disapproval numbers
by Mick Collins on May 31, 2012 at 12:17 am
I think that this should be no surprise given the way she got the job and is sustained in it against common sense. Factional seat warmer and toy PM.
by Thomas Paine. on May 31, 2012 at 12:18 am
I love the smell of Liberal wild optimism… Abbott will not be PM… to your credit you know it!
by Tobe on May 31, 2012 at 12:18 am
Agreed. Dont think the Libs will do it though, and i dont think people would believe he is anything less than a stopgap. He’s be pretty vulnerable to attack on several levels.
by imacca on May 31, 2012 at 12:19 am
Deflationite – The thing I have found interesting watching the Europeans is at least in the public domain there has been no talk of banks merging for as you point out there are some massive debts sitting on European banks balance sheets and surely they cannot all survive.
Good example is why isn’t the Spanish Government directing Bankia to find a merger partner, You will properly say that no one could afford to buy it but would I be right in presuming the point will be reached where a few banks will need to merge or worst one or two majors fold
by mexicanbeemer on May 31, 2012 at 12:20 am
Imacca 3255 re dumping leaders
_________
Yes the tories do it often…Nelson/Turnbull.Abbott….but Labor is just as quick…since 2004 there had been Beasley / Latham/Crean/Rudd/ Gillard if my memory is OK”
did I miss one ??
by deblonay on May 31, 2012 at 12:21 am
If(when) they give RAbbott the ole heave-ho then I reckon that their numbers will drop.
This is their conundrum, Abbott wont get them power, despite his being able to bluff his parties way to c54% 2pp, and any replacement cannot sustain the level of invective that he holds.
by Mick Collins on May 31, 2012 at 12:23 am
Mick C even in the latest Newspoll where the opposition had a bad week and Abbott’s personal rating went backwards the Coslition primary vote went up a point. In recent polling the Coalition team score higher than the Labor team. For now the desire to replace Labor and the PM is more powerfull than the distrust of Abbott.
by davidwh on May 31, 2012 at 12:27 am
Deblonay
Well I’ll help you check it out. Here’s a helpful list http://masada2000.org/shit-list.html and she doesn’t appear to be on it.
But I’m sure you’ll find all your favourite authors in there so now you don’t have to google all night “Jews who hate Israel” to find your doggerel. Say dankeschoen.
by Mick77 on May 31, 2012 at 12:30 am
Davidwh
Only problem is that if we have any more displays like today, and this week is turning out to be another bad week for the Coals, and their vote will start to drift back down.
We do know that the Governments primary is slowly creeping up, if they continue to have relatively clean weeks like this week, then I’d expect their primary vote to continue to drift upward
by Mick Collins on May 31, 2012 at 12:32 am
The finance industry will have to change one way or another.
It has been off the leash globally for 30 years and we are now getting the consequences.
I expect there to be a global response (eventually and hopefully). Maybe a type of tobin tax or something to reign in international finance.
When people question me on this stuff I ask them some simple questions.
1) How much debt do think you could build up while being comfortable you could pay it back?
2) The answer is almost always below what average private debt levels are and the debt levels for some major sovereign nations.
It is like government and public alike have been sucked into a debt level they neve5r realised they reached.
_
I call it financial cool aid.
by deflationite on May 31, 2012 at 12:32 am
Weak point duly noted davidwh
“For now”
by Tobe on May 31, 2012 at 12:32 am
The lisitng below is of a UK Jewish group..”.Jews for Justice for the Palestinians.”
.It lists Miriam Margoyles among others notable UK Jewish intellectuals…including the famed Historian ..Eric Hobsbawm..as members ,,,man whose historical writings are widely admired …ny me too.. among others
I guess you know nothing of this group…are they…to use you phrase..”self-hating Jews” ?
quite prominent ones though !
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jews_for_Justice_for_Palestinians
by deblonay on May 31, 2012 at 12:34 am
Don’t know if anyone has posted this yet – enjoy
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SXmk8dbFv_o
by Otiose on May 31, 2012 at 12:34 am
at the moment there is a very young dennis waterman on the tv.
so much so that he looks young enough to be the son of the dennis waterman that we see on ‘new tricks’
by Mick Collins on May 31, 2012 at 12:35 am
The world should not be divided into nation states. They should be phased out, as uppermost jurisdictions, and replaced with an Earth Federal Government.
by Tom the first and best on May 31, 2012 at 12:35 am
cool they just showed an Austin 1800 on the same show.
My Grandfather drove one of them
by Mick Collins on May 31, 2012 at 12:37 am
deblonay – until you cough up one good comment about Israel over the last 64 years and one bad comment about Israel’s enemies who wish to destroy it, you’re an anti-semite. You may choke but it’s worth the risk to change your life. Until then I’m off to bed to dream up more Zionist conspiracies for you to google.
by Mick77 on May 31, 2012 at 12:39 am
Oh, still on the politics of Julian Assange.
If it comes to Assange being bundled out of Sweden dead-of-night style, regardless of what you think about Assange (and personally I don’t have any time for him), it will be a big political problem for the government of the day.
Julia Gillard cannot afford to have another David Hicks situation develop. It doesn’t matter how the government feels about him, or how much of a knob he is, I think the Australian public will not look kindly on the Australian government sitting on its hands in these circumstances. Which, of course, is all still hypothetical at this stage. Just saying.
by Jackol on May 31, 2012 at 12:39 am
BTW, I have mainly been watching 9 news recently because I figure the occasional appearance of Oakes is better than Riley, but somehow I saw both political reports tonight and Riley’s was much more damning. Oakes had lots of shots of the “runner” Abbott, but Riley went much further… and was far more damning.
by Tobe on May 31, 2012 at 12:39 am
Not sure today will be the big negative for Abbott that people here think Mick. Where it counts people may see it as Abbott running from Thomson which likely reflects the attitude of a big majority of Australians. Time will tell. We are due for a Nielsen soon.
by davidwh on May 31, 2012 at 12:40 am
Tom the something or other
And pigs SHOULD fly. I’m getting out of this asylum just in time before it causes nightmares.
by Mick77 on May 31, 2012 at 12:41 am
Jackol re #3291 how can we be sure that the Yanks will simply whisk him away from Sweeden, let alone the Swedes allowing it ?
So far all that I can gather that the Swedes want is for Assange to answer for the sexual assult charges that he fled.
IIRC there was an article in The Age that discussed this, that article made a point that the Swedes had no desire to do anything than make him face those charges, they signalled no desire to hand him over to the Sepos
by Mick Collins on May 31, 2012 at 12:44 am
3294
World peace gives you nightmares?
An end to tax havens gives you nightmares?
by Tom the first and best on May 31, 2012 at 12:45 am
David wh
It looked pathetic. My first reaction when seeing it was to first think of a flinstones cartoon and then start hummming the Benny Hill tune.
Certainly not Statesmenlike, let alone Prime ministirial
by Mick Collins on May 31, 2012 at 12:47 am
Sorry Jackol… just can’t quite make the effort to get excited about a RW “player” who has had the best defence the left can offer…
by Tobe on May 31, 2012 at 12:47 am
I’m not a paranoid anti-one-world-government type, but I just don’t buy this.
Certainly not anytime soon (the next millenium or so).
Looking at how European government works (or doesn’t) or the US dysfunctionality, there is no model for effective decision making at these large, but still sub-world scales. China comes closest, and I think you’d struggle to sell government by a faux-communist oligarchy.
If we’re talking anything vaguely democracy based (as opposed to a dictatorship, plutocracy, kleptocracy, theocracy or whatever), I think the prospects for a world government being able to develop and prosecute policy effectively are zip, zilch, nada, buckleys and none.
by Jackol on May 31, 2012 at 12:48 am