Newspoll: 54-46 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes reports (though James J in comments had the numbers 45 minutes earlier) that Newspoll has the two-party preferred vote at 54-46, compared with 55-45 a fortnight ago and 59-41 the fortnight before. The primary votes are 32% for Labor (up two on last time), 46% for the Coalition (up one) and 12% for the Greens (steady). Julia Gillard’s approval rating is up three to 30% and her disapproval down three to 60%, while Tony Abbott is respectively down three and up four to 31% and 60%. Julia Gillard leads as preferred prime minister 40-37, reversing Abbott’s 40-36 lead last time.
Today’s Essential Research was less encouraging for Labor: it had them losing one of the points on two-party preferred which were clawed back over previous weeks, the result now at 57-43. Primary votes were 50% for the Coalition (up one), 33% for Labor (steady) and 10% for the Greens (steady). Other questions gauged views on the parties’ respective “attributes”, with all negative responses for Labor (chiefly “divided” and “will promise anything to win votes”) rating higher than all positives. The Liberal Party did rather better, rating well for “moderate” and “understands the problems facing Australia”. Bewilderingly, only slightly more respondents (35%) were willing to rate the state of the economy as “good” than “bad” (29%), with 33% opting for neither, although 43% rated the position of their household satisfactory against 28% unsatisfactory.
UPDATE (29/5/12): Morgan have broken the habit of a lifetime by publishing their weekend face-to-face poll results on a Tuesday, never having been known in the past to do it earlier than Thursday. My best guess is that they wished to offer a riposte to Newspoll’s relatively encouraging figures for Labor – “today’s Newspoll showing a swing to the ALP is simply unbelievable”, says Gary Morgan in the accompanying release – with their own results, which show Labor support at an all time low on every measure. The poll has Labor’s primary vote down 4.5% on the previous week to 27.5%, the Coalition up 3.5% to 49% and the Greens up 2.5% to 13%. This translates into 61.5-38.5 on respondent-allocated preferences and 58-42 on preferences as they flowed at the previous election.
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
kezza2
He does. I don’t know where or if they are broadcast live, but sometimes on Offsiders on ABC1 if they discuss a race (such as Black Caviar winning yet again), Whately is the caller on the replay. He’s shockingly bad – his excitement level is amped up to 20 on the Spinal Tap scale, no matter how dull the race. What’s notable in the House skit is that for once he was restrained.
by triton on May 31, 2012 at 10:36 am
bg
If leadership matters to polling, why is Abbott more unpopular than Gillard, and the Fibs lead in 2pp. Care to explain?
by victoria on May 31, 2012 at 10:36 am
Gary
Stop attacking Spur for actually commenting rationally on the polling.
Qld is bad for Labor just now – bleeding bloody obvious and the people have rather recently spoken – TWICE.
Now time and Campbell Oldman may turn it around but just now Labor has 10% to catch up as TPP is below 40%. It does not take a genius to work out that on the very strong balance of probabilities, Labor will lose 3-5 seats in Qld, with an outside chance of losing 8.
The question for Labor is where will it make gains to balance out the Qld losses. Victoria will be hard because Labor did so very well there in 2010. They might pick up a smattering in WA, NT and maybe Denison, but whatever which way you look at it Labor will need to pick up 2-5 seats in NSW to have a chance of winning government.
by daretotread on May 31, 2012 at 10:37 am
DavidWH
The nation sees QLD going back to banana bender days
@ABCenvironment: Qld Health warns of #health impacts of #wind farms, sparking outrage http://t.co/6FV8hQRX
by guytaur on May 31, 2012 at 10:37 am
I think, come Monday – since HoR breaks today for a fortnight – Thomson will do nothing of the sort. He is innocent until proven guilty, and there’s still not one single charge against him even in a civil court, much less a criminal one.
The same cannot be said for Sophie Mirabella who’s charged with ripping off an Alzheimer sufferer & his family for far more than Thomson is claimed to have the HSU, and she’s still a Shadow Minister! Mary Jo Fisher, was found guilty by a criminal court jury and she’s still an Opposition Senator & voting as such!
In addition an Opposition MP is involved not only in a bankruptcy case, but in the more serious case of trading while bankrupt. If found guilty, he will be excluded from Parliament for the term of the insolvency.
What a hypocrite, you are TP.
More objectionable I find your misappropriation of the name of a very fine political philosopher and libertarian whose writings and actions I had the pleasure of studying twice; once for his influence on PB Shelley’s libertarian (Italian) period and again as background to the Revolutionary eras in Europe as well as the US.
by OzPol Tragic on May 31, 2012 at 10:37 am
To quantify the size of the discrepancy between Newspoll and Morgan:
If Morgan is correct, Labor needs to persuade around 999,000 people to alter their 2PP vote between now and the election to have an even chance to win the next election.
If Newspoll is correct, Labor needs to persuade around 440,000 peole for the same outcome.
by Boerwar on May 31, 2012 at 10:37 am
Guytaur @ 3487 (and 3533):
Yes – we were discussing this late last night.
I certainly think that some appropriate action should be taken. I vaguely recall suggesting that if Mr Slipper were in the chair he’d reopen one of the detention cells in the basement (seriously, there are a couple there), NAME Pyne (i.e., out for 24 hours), and let that “out” be served in the detention cell.
by fiona on May 31, 2012 at 10:37 am
Ten minutes Fairfax Presser
Twenty Minutes Defence Defence Minister Smith
Tony Abbott Steel Company visit stunt presser in next hour.
by guytaur on May 31, 2012 at 10:38 am
Don’t blame me, I voted Labor – as I did throughout the Joh BP era!
by OzPol Tragic on May 31, 2012 at 10:38 am
Once again you step in trying to tell people what they can and can’t say. Who made you god?
by Gary on May 31, 2012 at 10:38 am
Poroti the approval process at local government is actually more robust and transparent than that by ULDA. It actually makes it more difficult to do “deals” outside the planning approval requirements.
by davidwh on May 31, 2012 at 10:40 am
Victoria
There is a very old saying
“Oppositions do not win elections, governments lose them” I think this in part explains why the unpopularity of Abbott does not translate into negative voting.
by daretotread on May 31, 2012 at 10:40 am
Parliament really has sunk very low with the manager of Opposition business giving the Deputy Speaker tongue.
Perhaps the punishment should fit the crime?
by Boerwar on May 31, 2012 at 10:41 am
Gary
Part of the reason I keep going on about Queensland is because it’s the only state where Abbott has a clear personal ratings lead over Gillard.
In the latest Nielsen poll for example, he had an approval rating of 54 and a disapproval rating of 42 (+12). Gillard’s rating by contrast was 26 approve, 69 disapprove (-43). On the prefered PM rating he’s leading Gillard 61 to 31.
Nowhere else in the country is it this bad
by spur212 on May 31, 2012 at 10:41 am
Gary
Do not claim to be god but I know a narrow minded opinionated git when I read one.
by daretotread on May 31, 2012 at 10:42 am
Well der. My argument is that it’s only speculation, not fact, that the same will be the case in 16 months time.
by Gary on May 31, 2012 at 10:42 am
dtt
The govt are doing a great job with the economy and implementing some great reforms. Hopefully this will hold them in good stead. If the govt abbottproof, or morrisonproof, or bishop proof the reforms, I will be okay with a tory outcome.
by victoria on May 31, 2012 at 10:42 am
You mustn’t read your own posts.
by Gary on May 31, 2012 at 10:42 am
DTT
NSW and QLD Proved inept opposition can keep even perceived incompetent governments in power. That was certainly how Labor’s last two terms in NSW was perceived. Yet they staying in because the opposition had no validity as an alternative government.
So the old saying needs an addition. “When there is a credible alternative.”
by guytaur on May 31, 2012 at 10:43 am
spur212
The govt implemented the flood levy to assist Qld. The coalition voted against it. Yet the coalition are doing exceptionally well there. No accounting for logic I say
by victoria on May 31, 2012 at 10:44 am
actually I suspect the support for the notLiberal Party is pretty soft and and Turnbull back at the helm would firm up that support.
Monkey Boy on the other hand is an asset for the ALP… I hope he hangs on and is defeated soundly next year. Oh sweet joy.
by rosemour on May 31, 2012 at 10:44 am
If that’s the case then Abbbott has to be loathed around the rest of the country far more than Gillard is.
by Gary on May 31, 2012 at 10:45 am
Liberal Party staffers are out in force this morning, trying – and failing, like their soon to be ex-leader – to justify That’s Just Tone’s stupidity yesterday.
Get over there, Bludgers! Your country needs you!
by Son of foro on May 31, 2012 at 10:45 am
Gary I’m pretty certain QLD will be a negative for the government. NSW will hold the key to their re-election prospects. Only one thing may change prospects in QLD and that has been done to death and settled.
by davidwh on May 31, 2012 at 10:46 am
I wrote back in February after the leadership spill:
Still sinking in very slowly, but they are starting to get it. Now Abbott himself has foolishly given it credence with her ‘she won’t lay down and die’ comment. Gillard will likely never be loved, (I think few leaders apart from Hawke ever are) but she is earning grudging respect much like Howard did. The contrast with Run Rabbott Run is stark.
Abbott’s whole strategy has been built on tearing down the government (and governance itself as collateral damage) and sneak in before anyone has a hard look at what he really has to offer. Aided by a complicit media it’s been successful right up to the point of actually doing the deed. But Gillard has survived. It hasn’t been pretty at times, and some of the things she’s said even I’ve found bone-headed. But it ain’t about perfection, it’s about beating your opponent. Despite everything that’s been thrown at her, and lets face it she’s had the sink, the tapware, the toilet, vanities and entire sewer system lobbed at her, still she stands, and smiling, and talking tough.
No wonder Abbott’s hair is disappearing. He’s missed his chance. It really is too late now, and I think he knows it. Abbott is toast, there never was a Plan B and can’t be one that will be credible in the face of all of his previous statements. Now that the Carbon Pricing and MRRT will happen and the voters will get the money in their pockets roll-back is simply untenable, and he has painted himself into a corner that doesn’t allow a ‘recalibration’. I don’t know if they’ll cut him down quickly or leave him hanging there till the election. He may even keep the TPP numbers high enough for long enough to last the distance, but he is fatally wounded.
by ratsak on May 31, 2012 at 10:47 am
Fairfax Presser about to start shortly News 24 doing their live shot upcoming thing
by guytaur on May 31, 2012 at 10:47 am
I’m catching up on this morning’s postings, so I’m rather late in commenting on the top-rate post by OzPol Tragic @3385.
Well written (as usual by this poster) and so very true.
by Brian Mc on May 31, 2012 at 10:49 am
I hope the journos taking Industrial Action to save their jobs are a bit more nuanced in their reporting in future, instead of the negative crap regarding “lost days” “industrial unrest” etc.
Like,
(a) remembering that the right to strike – to withdraw labour – is the only power workers have to negotiate with a recalcitrant employer.
(b) that unions are a good thing to help protect workers’ rights.
(c) that employers from Qantas to Mining Companies to Newspaper Conglomerates to small businesses should be prepared to suffer a small dent to their bottom line in order to be responsible corporate citizens in a country that has rewarded them so much rather than viewing everything through the prism of the almighty dollar.
(d) that companies that seeks to destroy the morale of its workforce in order to exploitthe labour of 3rd world countries should have their greed exposed for all Australians to see.
by kezza2 on May 31, 2012 at 10:49 am
It was a negative last election. We’re not talking about whether it will be but how bad it will be. To be making statements of fact this far out is just plain silly.
by Gary on May 31, 2012 at 10:49 am
ratsak
Well said
by victoria on May 31, 2012 at 10:49 am
Gary
The problem I have with your wishful thinking is that Qld made up their mind about Anna Bligh in 2009 and despite recognising her great performance in the Floods, did not budge from the opinion and dumped her big time in March. There is not at the moment ANY evidence of buyer remorse.
Sure it is possibly 16 months to an election (BUT my money in on June 2012 so 12 months) however nothing at the moment suggests any turn around.
Nor I might add do I see Labor with any clear strategy to address the Qld issue.
by daretotread on May 31, 2012 at 10:49 am
Dear Diary
Had a hard day in the office today because of that wretched Thommo. Why doesn’t just lie down and die?
I beat Tony to the green door by a short half-head. Tony is fitter than I am. All that lycra. But he is not as fast on his feet, so the duffer tried to go through a closed door. Golly, I was pink with exertion when I got out. After tiffin Tony spanked me for not figgering out how we were not going to accept the Thommo’s vote before he cast it.
Then I collected a red card to add to my collection of yellows and reds. I like yellow ones better. they match my hair. So then I had to go out and have a cuppa with Joe and Andy. We swapped red card stories. They said they hadn’t noticed that Anna was on her feet and it was, like, whoosh.
Then I poked my tongue my tongue at a woman.
All in all, a productive day. I can’t wait for us to win government so I can do all this stuff for real.
by Boerwar on May 31, 2012 at 10:49 am
This is a little awkward. Obama, who often disses George W. Bush, must welcome him to the White House tomorrow: apne.ws/JRyPhB -MS
by guytaur on May 31, 2012 at 10:49 am
I’m trying to imagine a Keating or a Menzies or a Curtin running for the door to escape a vote in the HoR.
by triton on May 31, 2012 at 10:52 am
I didn’t say I was absolutely certain Gary but it will take something really big to swing sentiment up here. It’s pretty much the same feeling held about the Bligh government.
by davidwh on May 31, 2012 at 10:52 am
daivdwh
I do not think Newman did a Run Rabbot Run moment. You have to be in Parliament for that.
by guytaur on May 31, 2012 at 10:53 am
That qualification, ATM, is very important. Even you recognise that something could happen and that is all I’ve been saying. What the chances are? I don’t know and I’d suggest no-one does.
by Gary on May 31, 2012 at 10:54 am
Strange people. Who would elect a national government based on something as juvenile as where the party leader grew up? That’s just embarrassing.
Not saying you’re wrong, of course, just that life’s tough for you, supporting a party whose leader you admit is a destructive moron and living in a state populated by childish imbeciles.
by Son of foro on May 31, 2012 at 10:54 am
I have said here repeatedly that the PM might be able to shift the primary vote 5% (28%) from where it is now in Queensland, but getting back to a point where the ALP can actually win the next election from here (35% would pick up a seat or two) is almost impossible.
by spur212 on May 31, 2012 at 10:54 am
Boerwar
Perhaps Pyne needs to refer to his old diary entries so he can recall what he forgot re Ashby. The drinks sessions, mobile phone details and email contact. Would love to see his diary entries about that
by victoria on May 31, 2012 at 10:56 am
If QLD’ers are voting according to location based MP’s to position in government then they will vote Labor. Abbott is Sydney North Shore. His Treasurer is Sydney North Shore.
So that argument is a load of hogwash.
by guytaur on May 31, 2012 at 10:57 am
We’ll see. You maybe right.
by Gary on May 31, 2012 at 10:57 am
Do you have an issue with people’s exercising their democratic right to support the Party of their choice?
What a majority of Queenslanders chose is entirely their business; not an invitation for Qld haters to get stuck into the whole State. I vote Labor; but that’s my democratic choice.
Attacking people for their political choice is, imo, the equivalent of Abbott’s & the MSM’s demanding Thomson be regarded as guilty until he is found innocent to Abbott’s satisfaction – and he did actually say that!
I expect, and usually get, much better from you.
by OzPol Tragic on May 31, 2012 at 10:59 am
Kezza2 @ 3464 & Victoria @ 3468,
Thank you – I’d switched off Ali Moore before Whateley’s glorious call. As BB said @ 3473, Abbott is completely flummoxed by gently humorous – almost indulgent – derision.
I must say that I’ve been disappointed by Ms Moore this time around. She seems to have degenerated into a giggly young thing who wouldn’t recognise policy if it bit her. However, I will give her this: this morning she said that Pyne had described himself as a “Giselle” …
Hmmmmmm.
by fiona on May 31, 2012 at 10:59 am
Queenslanders might also want to consider that a Coalition government means Rudd will no longer be an MP.
So they love him so much they’ll vote to make him unemployed.
by Son of foro on May 31, 2012 at 11:00 am
davidwh
Which would be good for all concerned but time will tell.
by poroti on May 31, 2012 at 11:00 am
OPT
You are missing the point of spur’s comments. He believes a change of leader would help Qld
by victoria on May 31, 2012 at 11:01 am
Fiona
Did you read Andrew Elder’s latest piece which talks about Pyne?
by victoria on May 31, 2012 at 11:01 am
Gary, you are amoung tne most read and respected posters here,
In fact if we pick up seats in victoria, couple nsw- ,Also sa-Who cares about
Qld
Of course we would still direct policy there,
by my say on May 31, 2012 at 11:02 am
Daetotread – it’s a bold person who seeks to prognosticate on what may happen in the next twelve months.
by Burgey on May 31, 2012 at 11:03 am