Newspoll: 54-46 to Coalition

Monday, May 28, 2012

by William Bowe

Federal Politics 2010-

GhostWhoVotes reports (though James J in comments had the numbers 45 minutes earlier) that Newspoll has the two-party preferred vote at 54-46, compared with 55-45 a fortnight ago and 59-41 the fortnight before. The primary votes are 32% for Labor (up two on last time), 46% for the Coalition (up one) and 12% for the Greens (steady). Julia Gillard’s approval rating is up three to 30% and her disapproval down three to 60%, while Tony Abbott is respectively down three and up four to 31% and 60%. Julia Gillard leads as preferred prime minister 40-37, reversing Abbott’s 40-36 lead last time.

Today’s Essential Research was less encouraging for Labor: it had them losing one of the points on two-party preferred which were clawed back over previous weeks, the result now at 57-43. Primary votes were 50% for the Coalition (up one), 33% for Labor (steady) and 10% for the Greens (steady). Other questions gauged views on the parties’ respective “attributes”, with all negative responses for Labor (chiefly “divided” and “will promise anything to win votes”) rating higher than all positives. The Liberal Party did rather better, rating well for “moderate” and “understands the problems facing Australia”. Bewilderingly, only slightly more respondents (35%) were willing to rate the state of the economy as “good” than “bad” (29%), with 33% opting for neither, although 43% rated the position of their household satisfactory against 28% unsatisfactory.

UPDATE (29/5/12): Morgan have broken the habit of a lifetime by publishing their weekend face-to-face poll results on a Tuesday, never having been known in the past to do it earlier than Thursday. My best guess is that they wished to offer a riposte to Newspoll’s relatively encouraging figures for Labor – “today’s Newspoll showing a swing to the ALP is simply unbelievable”, says Gary Morgan in the accompanying release – with their own results, which show Labor support at an all time low on every measure. The poll has Labor’s primary vote down 4.5% on the previous week to 27.5%, the Coalition up 3.5% to 49% and the Greens up 2.5% to 13%. This translates into 61.5-38.5 on respondent-allocated preferences and 58-42 on preferences as they flowed at the previous election.

Categories: Federal Politics 2010-

5792 Responses

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SoF and Victoria,

That’s what the asterisk would suggest. I’m not sure that we should go there, however.

by fiona on May 31, 2012 at 12:29 pm
@ABCNews24: Next on @ABCNews24, @TonyAbbottMHR & Senator Nick Xenophon are addressing the media in Canberra. From 12:30pm AEST

by guytaur on May 31, 2012 at 12:30 pm
That’s what the asterisk would suggest.

My take was that he was being a bit cheeky but not really suggesting any more than that. He doesn’t seem like that sort of writer.

by Son of foro on May 31, 2012 at 12:31 pm
Is this a sporting announcement? What do Xenophon and Abbott have in common?

by guytaur on May 31, 2012 at 12:31 pm
Abbott Xenophon Presser Live Now

by guytaur on May 31, 2012 at 12:33 pm
guytaur,

Ummm, they both like doing stunts?

by fiona on May 31, 2012 at 12:33 pm
Oh. Abbott opposing Government Online Gambling. Another chance to say no.
I am antigambling but in favour of the government here. Harm reduction strategy is how I see it

by guytaur on May 31, 2012 at 12:35 pm
guytaur

Oh dear. Abbott must be getting desperate

by victoria on May 31, 2012 at 12:36 pm
Riley arguing prohibition doesn’t work as a question.

by guytaur on May 31, 2012 at 12:38 pm
Abbott should wear runners into Question time .

by rummel on May 31, 2012 at 12:40 pm
I think Xenophon has lost it here. I think it will be the end of his political career.
Makes Wilkie look sensible by comparison. So far not heard Wilkie opposing online gambling. Just pokies.

by guytaur on May 31, 2012 at 12:40 pm
Gary
Posted Thursday, May 31, 2012 at 10:45 am | Permalink
In the latest Nielsen poll for example, he had an approval rating of 54 and a disapproval rating of 42 (+12). Gillard’s rating by contrast was 26 approve, 69 disapprove (-43). On the prefered PM rating he’s leading Gillard 61 to 31.

Nowhere else in the country is it this bad

If that’s the case then Abbbott has to be loathed around the rest of the country far more than Gillard is.

Queensland seems an odd place, given preferences like that.

One has to ask how they can possibly prefer a person and party that voted against the flood levy to the Government that proposed and supported it.

Talking to a Queenslander friend recently, he explained that he believed his fellow Queenslanders sill hadn’t gotten over Rudd’s demise. Local Boy and all that. People in other States might have moved on it seems, but not Queenslanders.

He may well be right, as nothing else seems to be out there to explain this odd discrepancy.

I certainly hope the parochialism of Queenslanders won’t prevent a Labor victory in 2013. There’s still plenty of time for them to snap out of it and wake-up.

by smithe on May 31, 2012 at 12:40 pm
Damn bad timing by Carr

by guytaur on May 31, 2012 at 12:42 pm
@rummel/3709

He’d wear them out attempting to flee parliament.

by zoidlord on May 31, 2012 at 12:42 pm
Boerwar can’t do any hard. I remember travelling to Mt Isa each year to complete annual accounts on old NCR32 accounting machines. It was time consuming but some of the most enjoyable times in my life. The NBN would have been handy in those days except we didn’t have too many computers to connect to it.

Will be great for outback education.

by davidwh on May 31, 2012 at 12:42 pm
How about because miners would be a danger to others at work when drugged up? How dumb are miners anyway?

I worked in MT Isa in 1982. On the blast furnace labouring gang at the lead smelter. Often we had to ” shoot down ” the furnace…ie jackhammer waterpipe with pointed ends into the slag build up on the side of the furnace. Then the pipes were filled with water, a plug of gelignite dropped down and fired. Blowing the slag build up off the sides. Very hot, very dangerous work. Picture, if you will, reo mesh spread across the top opening of a blast furnace, 3 to 4 men all hanging off the same jackhammer forcing the pipe into lead slag. I really don’t think that it would be done that way today. However, what perurbed me the most was the guy putting the gelignite charges together. He was always ripped off his head. Always. Mt Isa Mining wrere always concerned about the build up of lead in your bloodstream. We were tested regulary, alcohol tested on occasion. Drug tested…never.

I have worked in commercial kitchens alongside ‘speed freaks’, cocaine snorters, ‘dope heads’ and sadly watched as heroin overtook a talented young chef who turned raw produce into art.

Drugs have no place in the workplace, never have, never will. The miners in Mackay know this, the politician knows this.

They’re having a group whinge and I would put it to you that the unemployed have been held up to the group by the politician as a convienient, powerless and vulnerable whipping boy?

Would you not agree?

by Ian on May 31, 2012 at 12:43 pm
Carr on Assange

No questions yet

by guytaur on May 31, 2012 at 12:44 pm
One has to ask how they can possibly prefer a person and party that voted against the flood levy to the Government that proposed and supported it.

Talking to a Queenslander friend recently, he explained that he believed his fellow Queenslanders sill hadn’t gotten over Rudd’s demise. Local Boy and all that.

Well exactly. And a vote for the Coalition is a vote for sending Local Boy to the other side of House.

I stand by my comments about Queenslanders. They’re nothing but failed Victorians as far as I’m concerned.

by Son of foro on May 31, 2012 at 12:45 pm
After today, there’s nothing Abbott can do about carbon pricing as a 30 day election campaign from Monday after the writs would be declared takes us past July 1st.

So that is set.

The only question is electoral politics.

Abbott’s only strategy since he became opposition leader has been to take focus off himself and put it on the ALP. The ALP have put a solid period of time into policy development. From now, they should step back from this and throughly deconstruct what Abbott is proposing, what he represents and his lack of character.

Gillard needs to start throwing punches. The last two days have been excellent, but she needs to build on it

by spur212 on May 31, 2012 at 12:47 pm
dwh

We had a baby with croup once. It was extremely isolated. It was around 30 km and three flooded rivers, with the road out due to black soil flooding, to get to the nearest radio telephone and then a wait for the flying doctor. We had no phone and no radio.

Anyway, hearts in our mouths, we looked after baby on our own. If that hadn’t worked I was going to have to take a hike for the best part of two days, and my chances with the crocs, to get help.

Those circumstances will still arise but will do so a lot less often. The enemies of the NBN should know, quite simply, that it will save lives.

by Boerwar on May 31, 2012 at 12:47 pm
And Abbott in a 2001 interview with Laurie Oakes (on the negativity of Beazley and the ‘ruinism’ of Oz economic debate

ABBOTT: Yeah, but one of the real problems we have at the moment is ruinism, Laurie, as in "We'll all be ruined" said Hanrahan. This is a kind of a mutant sibling of the tall poppy syndrome, and it's poisoning our public life at the moment, and it risks doing damage to the economy.

And of course, the chief economic ghoul literally praying for bad news is Kim Beazley. The champagne corks pop in Kim Beazley's office every time someone gets into trouble.

http://sgp1.paddington.ninemsn.com.au/sunday/political_transcripts/article_767.asp?s=1

by bluegreen on May 31, 2012 at 12:49 pm
The ‘baby’, btw, is right now enjoying a holiday in London with her husband and with a baby of her own.

by Boerwar on May 31, 2012 at 12:49 pm
I stand by my comments about Queenslanders. They’re nothing but failed Victorians as far as I’m concerned.

Total bullshite & bigotry from a stateist citizen of a mendicant .

Ain’t jealousy a curse!

by OzPol Tragic on May 31, 2012 at 12:50 pm
Carr now speaking regarding Syria

by guytaur on May 31, 2012 at 12:51 pm
Gee that’s a tough call SOF. You are not jealous because we have the best cricketers, footie players, swimmers, motor cycle champs, golfers etc are you?

I’m still shivering at the thought we are being compared to Victorians.

by davidwh on May 31, 2012 at 12:51 pm
Drugs have no place in the workplace, never have, never will. The miners in Mackay know this, the politician knows this.

They’re having a group whinge and I would put it to you that the unemployed have been held up to the group by the politician as a convienient, powerless and vulnerable whipping boy?

Would you not agree?

Agree entirely Ian. Drugs in workplaces is an occupational health and safety issue, especially where the operation of heavy and potentially dangerous equipment is concerned. It has a real and necessary purpose.

Drug testing the unemployed serves no purpose at all.

Apart, of course, from victimising them.

by smithe on May 31, 2012 at 12:51 pm
bg @ 3650

Superb get. Run Rabbott hoist upon his own petard!

You really need to send that link off to the PM’s office. There must surely be a Dorothy Dixer if not a whole question times worth of attacks just in the short section you have quoted. Ruinism! Run Rabbott’s strategy boiled down into one easily remembered word.

Something like…

Speaker: The member for Corangamite has the call.

Member for Corangamite: Thank you Madam Deputy Speaker, my question is to the Prime Minister. Prime Minister, can you inform the house on how the Labor Government is spreading the benefits of the mining boom whilst managing the economy to protect Australian's from the challenges faced by other countries. What challenges does the government face in this challenge and can our nations prosperity be damaged by misinformation and constant negativity?

Prime Minister: Madam Deputy Speaker, I thank the member for Corangamite for his question and note his commitment, shared by all of those on this side of the house, for managing the economy responsibly to not only grow the economy, but to spread the benefits of the mining boom to working families throughout the nation.

I note that the member in his question enquired about the dangers of misinformation and constant negativity to our economy. I could not agree more. The dangers of such harping negativity have long been recognised. I'd like to draw to the attention of the house an interview conducted by the ABC's Tony Jones from way back in 2001. The interviewee identified a wonderfully descriptive term for this sort of relentless incessant negativity. Ruinism was the phrase, Madam Deputy Speaker, ruinism. Ruinism. A wonderful term and so apt for these current days.

Madam Deputy Speaker the interviewee claimed that this ruinism, and I quote, "It threatens to sabotage our prosperity". Absolutely right Madam Deputy Speaker. The ruinism of the Leader of the Opposition is a direct attempt to sabotage our national prosperity.

The interviewee further went on: "Fundamentally, I think what is upsetting people is the pace of change and the social and economic cost of restructuring and that's understandable but we can either look at the bright side -- we can say, well, things are tough and we are going to make the most of it or we can say things are tough and it's really got too much for us.

Right at the moment, if you read the economic commentary, it's almost as if some people are trying to psyche us into a recession and that's hardly a productive or a helpful attitude to have."

Again Madam Deputy Speaker how completely apt for our present circumstances. Yes our economy faces some challenges, but we on this side of the house are proud of our response to these challenges, we will say well things are tough, but we are going to make the most of it. That's why we are determined to spread the benefits of the mining boom, because we know that despite the mining boom not everyone has benefited. That is why we have brought in the Schoolkids bonus which Mr Abbott wants to rip away from families, that is why we have raised the tax free threshold to $18,000 which Mr Abbott wants to tear away, that is why Madam Deputy Speaker we have increased pensions and family payments which Mr Abbott wants to take back and give to the proceeds to Clive Palmer and Gina Reinhardt. Madam Deputy Speaker we agree with the interviewee that it is better to make the best of our situation and manage the economy in the interests of all Australians rather than just throw our hands in the air and give in to the ruinism of the Leader of the Opposition. Right at the moment, if you listen to anything the Leader of the Opposition says, it's almost as if the Coalition is trying to psyche us into a recession and that's hardly a productive of helpful attitude to have. We know why the Leader of the Opposition indulges in his constant ruinism Madam Deputy Speaker. The Leader of the Opposition indulges in this ruinism for the basest of political motives. He thinks trying to psyche the nation into a recession will help his political interests Madam Deputy Speaker.

Now of course I didn't mention the subject of the interview back in 2001. It might come as a shock to learn that the man speaking out against constant negativity Madam Deputy Speaker, the man who coined the term ruinism, a term so apt to describe the base politics of the Leader of the Opposition, was of course the Member for Warringah, Madam Deputy Speaker, the Leader of the Opposition Mr Abbott himself.

It is instructive Madam Deputy Speaker to see the Leader of the Opposition turn the relentless negativity of which he once denounced as ruinism into an artform. It is almost as if rather than warning against the dangers of such ruinism he was outlining a guide on how he could become the most destructive and relentlessly negative Opposition Leader this country has seen a decade later.

Madam Deputy Speaker the Leader of the Opposition stands condemned by his own words. His relentless negativity, his politics of NO, his ruinism show him to be unfit to lead this great nation. You can Run Mr Abbott, but you can't hide.

by ratsak on May 31, 2012 at 12:51 pm
BTW, Queensland was settled (convict & free settlers) before Victoria.

by OzPol Tragic on May 31, 2012 at 12:51 pm
OPT

Victorians have a chip on their shoulder. Batman left Tasmania to go to what is not Victoria.
This means Melbourne is really the Capital city of Tasmania.

by guytaur on May 31, 2012 at 12:54 pm
Ratsak,

Have you sent it yet?

by fiona on May 31, 2012 at 12:54 pm
bluegreen @ 3698

I just don’t think the ALP are doing enough opposition research.

I agree entirely. But there is more.

I was listening to the ABC news early yesterday morning and it had an item about the collapsed Hastie Group and how they had a culture of “no bad news”.

That is a pervasive culture in many organisation and certainly many PB posters. What it does of course is to prevent facing up to reality, accepting the problems that confront you and…. dealing with them in an effective way. The preferred PB model is to whinge and attribute all bad news to external factors like the MSM.

LSL had a good post recently when he spoke of dividing problems into two classes, those you can influence and those you can’t. Focus on those you can.

by bemused on May 31, 2012 at 12:54 pm
I like “galoot”

I don’t think I have seen the word ‘galoot’ in print before. It was a favourite term of my late Granny – there were ‘galoots’ and ‘great galoots’ – I was one of the latter many times.

I associate the term ‘galoot’ with affection so I have a problem with describing Pyne as a ‘galoot’.

- ‘Fool’ will do.

by blackburnpseph on May 31, 2012 at 12:55 pm
I have a lot of respect for you Boerwar and people who work away from the coast. I have walked into so many country pubs and clubs in the bush while travelling for work and have never felt alone, often got into an argument about football or politics, but always was accepted openly. Been invited back to stay in peoples homes rather than let me stay in a pub or motel. Country people have hearts as big as the country they live in. Great folks.

by davidwh on May 31, 2012 at 12:56 pm
bemused

The MSM does bear a lot of blame. Here is an example of how bad the media can be. A Murdoch owned organisation.
file:///Users/guytaur1/Documents/’Fox%20And%20Friends’%20Anti-Obama%20Video%20Could%20Double%20As%20GOP%20Ad%20%5BUPDATE:%20Fox%20News%20Issues%20Statement%5D%20(VIDEO.webarchive

by guytaur on May 31, 2012 at 12:56 pm
Someone should really send those Abbott quotes to the PMs office for question time

by bluegreen on May 31, 2012 at 12:56 pm
BTW, y’r missing a great debate on the Coastal Shipping Bill (the “Blue Highway”), and a bravura performance by Albanese!

by OzPol Tragic on May 31, 2012 at 12:57 pm
Total bullshite & bigotry from a stateist citizen of a mendicant . Ain’t jealousy a curse!

Failed Victorians!

You are not jealous because we have the best cricketers, footie players, swimmers, motor cycle champs, golfers etc are you?

Failed Victorians! We’d never let Stoner quit!

by Son of foro on May 31, 2012 at 12:57 pm
http://www.abc.net.au/news/image/3887430-16×9-512×288.jpg

This is an example of how Queenslanders feel about Labor.

Sure, the opinions of extreme reactionary supremacists, but over 20% of them voted for such a party in 1998.

About that picture though, it was Curtis Pitt’s office. And against all odds, he managed to hold on to Mulgrave, which I suppose is justice done.

by Von Kirsdarke on May 31, 2012 at 12:57 pm
bbs

How about “galah”?

by guytaur on May 31, 2012 at 12:57 pm
guytaur

Hey dont knock My Melbourne!

by victoria on May 31, 2012 at 12:58 pm
ratsak – you sneaky thing. You’ve never told us that you write the Q&As for QT.

by BH on May 31, 2012 at 12:59 pm
victoria

Its a fact. It is why the Tamar River has a Batman Bridge. If it was not for the water Victoria would not exist.

by guytaur on May 31, 2012 at 1:00 pm
OPT,

I love the “blue highway” – and it’s great to hear Mr Katter fired up about the GBR.

by fiona on May 31, 2012 at 1:00 pm
The shipping legislation has passed the House so the first item on SkyNews now is Abbott & Xenophone oppose the Govt’s online gambling policies. Shows the priorities of Sky

by BH on May 31, 2012 at 1:01 pm
Tim Soutphommasane @timsout 40m
Indeed. RT @TheKouk: Mining investment up 80.1% in year to March.... So much for mining tax concerns!

by victoria on May 31, 2012 at 1:02 pm
Beattie, Doohan & Stoner I think we can hold our heads high.

by davidwh on May 31, 2012 at 1:03 pm
I don’t think I have seen the word ‘galoot’ in print before.

Try CJ Dennis’s The Moods of Ginger Mick and other poems. This is from “The Game”

"I feel ... I dunno 'ow I feel. I feel that things is done.
I seem t've 'it the limit in some way.
Per'aps I'm orf me pannikin wiv sittin' in the sun,
But I jist wrote to Rose the other day;
An' I wrote 'er sort o' mournful 'cos - I dunno 'ow it seems ...
Ar, I'm a gay galoot to go an' 'ave these dilly dreams!

Gawd!

by OzPol Tragic on May 31, 2012 at 1:05 pm
Latika Bourke @latikambourke 2m
IR Minister Bill Shorten will introduce legislation into Parl to crack down on unions today.
View details

by victoria on May 31, 2012 at 1:07 pm
Latika Bourke @latikambourke 4s
The bill was introduced this morning and would force unions & ROs to establish policies about financial expenditure and accountability.

View details ·

Latika Bourke @latikambourke 1m
If passed - triple the maximum civil penalties for breaches of the Fair Work (Registered Organisations) Act $33,000.

View details ·

by victoria on May 31, 2012 at 1:07 pm
BTW, # 3746 as far as I remember (without doing a lot of googlng) it’s one of Dennis’s Gallipoli poems.

Bloody hell. What’s happened to this nation!

by OzPol Tragic on May 31, 2012 at 1:08 pm

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