Newspoll: 54-46 to Coalition

Monday, May 28, 2012

by William Bowe

Federal Politics 2010-

GhostWhoVotes reports (though James J in comments had the numbers 45 minutes earlier) that Newspoll has the two-party preferred vote at 54-46, compared with 55-45 a fortnight ago and 59-41 the fortnight before. The primary votes are 32% for Labor (up two on last time), 46% for the Coalition (up one) and 12% for the Greens (steady). Julia Gillard’s approval rating is up three to 30% and her disapproval down three to 60%, while Tony Abbott is respectively down three and up four to 31% and 60%. Julia Gillard leads as preferred prime minister 40-37, reversing Abbott’s 40-36 lead last time.

Today’s Essential Research was less encouraging for Labor: it had them losing one of the points on two-party preferred which were clawed back over previous weeks, the result now at 57-43. Primary votes were 50% for the Coalition (up one), 33% for Labor (steady) and 10% for the Greens (steady). Other questions gauged views on the parties’ respective “attributes”, with all negative responses for Labor (chiefly “divided” and “will promise anything to win votes”) rating higher than all positives. The Liberal Party did rather better, rating well for “moderate” and “understands the problems facing Australia”. Bewilderingly, only slightly more respondents (35%) were willing to rate the state of the economy as “good” than “bad” (29%), with 33% opting for neither, although 43% rated the position of their household satisfactory against 28% unsatisfactory.

UPDATE (29/5/12): Morgan have broken the habit of a lifetime by publishing their weekend face-to-face poll results on a Tuesday, never having been known in the past to do it earlier than Thursday. My best guess is that they wished to offer a riposte to Newspoll’s relatively encouraging figures for Labor – “today’s Newspoll showing a swing to the ALP is simply unbelievable”, says Gary Morgan in the accompanying release – with their own results, which show Labor support at an all time low on every measure. The poll has Labor’s primary vote down 4.5% on the previous week to 27.5%, the Coalition up 3.5% to 49% and the Greens up 2.5% to 13%. This translates into 61.5-38.5 on respondent-allocated preferences and 58-42 on preferences as they flowed at the previous election.

Categories: Federal Politics 2010-

5792 Responses

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davidwh @ 4841

Bemused 4834 I agree However deliberate intervention by government eg BER are not automatic stabilizers.

I would expect my good comrade to agree with me!
Not so sure about what you are saying about BER etc. The govt has to spend money on something and go into deficit to keep up the level of aggregate demand. So what would be your prescription to do this?

by bemused on Jun 1, 2012 at 11:29 am
BB

Cassidy’s piece was not so bad. He made some relevant and fair points

by victoria on Jun 1, 2012 at 11:30 am
ltep

Yes, just like here.

by lizzie on Jun 1, 2012 at 11:31 am
Not so sure about what you are saying about BER etc. The govt has to spend money on something and go into deficit to keep up the level of aggregate demand. So what would be your prescription to do this?

Bemused, a stimulus program, is not “automatic”

That was my point about less tax and more welfare. These things happend automatically!

by bluegreen on Jun 1, 2012 at 11:32 am
bluegreen @ 4846

muttleymcgee

I never said that JG leaked.

I said the NSW Right leaked. Is JG in the NSW leaky Right?

Don’t worry about muttley, he has GG syndrome and snaps and snarls his ignorance reflexively at any poster he disagrees with. Another sad, bitter little man.

by bemused on Jun 1, 2012 at 11:33 am
Suu Kiii Burma addressing world eco forum

by guytaur on Jun 1, 2012 at 11:33 am
Bushfire Bill,
Huzzah!

by C@tmomma on Jun 1, 2012 at 11:33 am
victoria,
Yup.

by C@tmomma on Jun 1, 2012 at 11:34 am
lizzie

The article you linked earlier, also has a piece on Slippergate. Worthwhile

Ah the Coalition…always good for a laugh. Whether it’s the batshit insane hyperbole they spout at the drop of a hat or the lengths they will go to to demonstrate their mastery of hypocrisy, they can always be relied upon to stuff themselves up eventually.

http://sprayoftheday.wordpress.com/

by victoria on Jun 1, 2012 at 11:34 am
bluegreen @ 4853
The key point is that government has to go into deficit so that automatic stabilisation can work. The other side of the coin is that as economic activity is restored, government revenue increases and it will automatically go back into surplus.

by bemused on Jun 1, 2012 at 11:35 am
c@tmomma

Love your posts, so it stands to reason I enjoyed reading your tweets as well!!

by victoria on Jun 1, 2012 at 11:36 am
I don’t seem to remember journalists were as blase about Labor’s political faux pas when they were on the Opposition side of federal parliament.

by C@tmomma on Jun 1, 2012 at 11:36 am
Bemused the automatic stabilizers kick in regardless of direct intervention. I would even argue that the exchange rate with a floating currency almost falls into the mix. However deliberate increases in government spending like the BER are fiscal policy decisions rather than automatic consequences of changes in economic circumstances.

Hey but it’s economics and even the rules tend to be variable

by davidwh on Jun 1, 2012 at 11:36 am
Will be interesting to see what the RBA is going to do on Tuesday. Will there be another rate cut?

Victoria, I assume the RBA would accept that, with CP compo, school kids & family benefit increases, the Economy doesn’t need another stimulus yet.

But I could be wrong.

by OzPol Tragic on Jun 1, 2012 at 11:37 am
When I hear automatic stabilisers I think suspension not economics. Thinking Star Trek.

by guytaur on Jun 1, 2012 at 11:39 am
victoria,
Thank you. Just doing my bit for ‘Truth, Justice and the Australian way.’

I used to blog as well. I may well do it again some day, but, well, I slacked off.

by C@tmomma on Jun 1, 2012 at 11:39 am
What’s Abbott supposed to say about the Pilbersek posters?

Nothing?

Say they were bloddy funny?

“Actually, I totally agree but would change it to “Iron my shirt”.”

The criticism of him here is a vapid as the criticism of him trying to get out of the Chamber before the doors were locked. Doing nothing is not an option.

(When is the ALP now going to expel Thomo rather than suspend him for crossing the floor – when they get their money back??)

by Compact Crank on Jun 1, 2012 at 11:39 am
C@tmomma

I can see where Cassidy is coming from re Abbott running out of chamber. It would have been a disaster if JG had done it. Obviously, The PM does carry far more responsiblity. My only argument with this, is that by virtue of the hung parliament, more scrutiny on Abbott needs to be applied as the govt is more at risk of falling over at any time.

by victoria on Jun 1, 2012 at 11:39 am
Tony Abbott 2001

But we haven't always been helped by what I think is a bit of a feral political and media culture in this country which certainly does seem to be becoming more severe.

If you ever challenge people, you run the risk of being shouted down as someone who is trying to end the world as we know it.

http://www.abc.net.au/lateline/stories/s264916.htm

This guy is clever. He knows the game. He knew the weaknesses of the Australian people in govt in 2001, and 2012 he is using it against the people.

by bluegreen on Jun 1, 2012 at 11:41 am
OPT

That is my thinking too, but as Laocoon points out, there have been very weak building figures. On that basis there may be a good case for a rate reduction

by victoria on Jun 1, 2012 at 11:42 am
davidwh @ 4862

Hey but it’s economics and even the rules tend to be variable

Yes, I read somewhere that the profession of Economics was only invented to make Astrology look respectable. I disagree of course

by bemused on Jun 1, 2012 at 11:42 am
Guytaur it’s just a fancy term to explain factors you can’t control.

by davidwh on Jun 1, 2012 at 11:43 am
davidwh & bluegreen
Just did my quick research and found this:

In macroeconomics, automatic stabilizers describes how modern government budget policies, particularly income taxes and welfare spending, act to dampen fluctuations in real GDP.{1}
The size of the government budget deficit tends to increase when a country enters a recession, which tends to keep national income higher by maintaining aggregate demand. There may also be a multiplier effect. This effect happens automatically depending on GDP and household income, without any explicit policy action by the government, and acts to reduce the severity of recessions. Similarly, the budget deficit tends to decrease during booms, which pulls back on aggregate demand. Therefore, automatic stabilizers tend to reduce the size of the fluctuations in a country’s GDP.

So I guess you are more correct than what I was.

by bemused on Jun 1, 2012 at 11:44 am
Compact Crank

What’s Abbott supposed to say about the Pilbersek posters?

Nothing?

Bingo ! Just make no comment and the story would have died in the milliseconds it deserved to.

by poroti on Jun 1, 2012 at 11:46 am
davidwh

I still think it is better applied to spaceships

by guytaur on Jun 1, 2012 at 11:46 am
Clive palmer news 24

by guytaur on Jun 1, 2012 at 11:46 am
CC

For a start, there was no reason for him to draw attention to them. Surely what an MP puts on their office walls is their business.

Secondly, if just the mere knowledge that someone, somewhere, unseen by him personally, upsets him so much, one wonders how he bears to look at a newspaper.

Thirdly, if he really, truly, deeply felt insulted by the posters, he could have raised it personally with Plibersek.

Raising an incredibly minor issue like this in Federal Parliament just makes him look like a sook.

by zoomster on Jun 1, 2012 at 11:47 am
Don’t worry about muttley, he has GG syndrome and snaps and snarls his ignorance reflexively at any poster he disagrees with. Another sad, bitter little man.

You’ve just taken issue with bg over his careless and confusing ramblings! Until he makes himself clear he’s open to criticism, as you are.

Coming from a chase the peanut artist from 40 years ago who sees a pompous twat in the mirror every morning, carry on, sunshine.

by muttleymcgee on Jun 1, 2012 at 11:47 am
Bemused with economics I don’t think anyone is more correct than anyone else

by davidwh on Jun 1, 2012 at 11:47 am
Abbott 2001

Well, I'm not saying that it's good news, but again Laurie, I think we need to keep it in perspective. And the last thing we need to be doing at the moment is talking the economy down. We don't want to give ourselves an attack of the shakes over something which is relatively normal.

http://sgp1.paddington.ninemsn.com.au/sunday/political_transcripts/article_767.asp?s=1

by bluegreen on Jun 1, 2012 at 11:48 am
bemused
Posted Friday, June 1, 2012 at 11:21 am | Permalink

bluegreen @ 4810
That is a better explanation than earlier.

BG also overlooked a biggy when it comes to automatic stabilisers – flexible exchange rates.

Who can ever forget the J curve ?

Obviously soap salesmen.

by dave on Jun 1, 2012 at 11:48 am
Australian chamber of commerce presser

by guytaur on Jun 1, 2012 at 11:48 am
Guytaur 4874 there’s Klingons on the starboard bow

by davidwh on Jun 1, 2012 at 11:49 am
@davidwh/4882

You just brought that song into my head.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HhuzjkE65f8

by zoidlord on Jun 1, 2012 at 11:52 am
Chamber of commerce doing its traditional wah wah there has been a wagw increase for the poor

by guytaur on Jun 1, 2012 at 11:52 am
With regard to the automatic stabiliser argument going on – the BER and the other cash handouts etc weren’t parrt of the Automatic Stabilisers – they were active policies – just ask Swannie how freaking active he was.

The big problem with the Keynesian stimulus policies is that while it may be focused on jobs jobs jobs – those jobs jobs jobs disappear when the other peoples’ money runs out. I have no argument with the short term effect but if you want to create jobs jobs jobs then you have to help create business business business. And this is why the so called European “austerity” policieshave failed miserably. Sweden is the standout example of what is required – cut taxes and cut spending even harder – reduce the tax burden to encourage business. (And for the PIGS (excluding Ireland) a bit of taxation compliance by all would help).

by Compact Crank on Jun 1, 2012 at 11:53 am
Mr Hockey said we should emulate countries/economies such as Hong Kong when it comes to an “entitlement mentality” and should rely on family to look after us.

This seems to be happening in Hong Kong except the people being looked after are the multi millionaires.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-05-31/billionaire-city-belies-capitalism-s-victories.html

As test cases go, Hong Kong hardly looks like a breakthrough. The free-market crowd adores the city for its low taxes, unrestricted entry of foreign capital and rule of law. It is routinely ranked the freest economy anywhere. Never mind that its leader is picked by China; its currency is pegged; it is home to the only state-backed Disney theme park; and a handful of oligarchs rule the place. To the true believers, this is market-freedom central.

Yet what have Hong Kongers gotten out of their emancipated economy? The highest income-inequality gap in Asia. A widening divide between rich and poor is tolerable if it is tempered with hope that it is bridgeable. But Hong Kong’s government is failing on this front. Politically connected tycoons have enriched themselves from monopolies in power generation, real estate, transportation and telecommunications. The 99 percent are falling further behind.

Local leaders seem clueless about all this. Donald Tsang, Hong Kong’s chief executive, dismissed the wealth gap as a byproduct of capitalism. Economics 101 tells Tsang that he can no more ignore the fallout from growing inequality than residents can overlook their city’s worsening air quality.

And then there’s Henry Tang, who thankfully lost his bid to replace Tsang come July. Tang’s “Basement-gate” scandal left Hong Kong residents aghast as they were squeezed by surging rents and living costs. His lavish and illegally constructed underground playpen enraged the masses. Not the most perceptive head in the crowd, Tang says there’s ample proof that Hong Kong’s model works: Just look at the steady influx of chief executives and bankers.

Tang’s basement, replete with wine cellar and movie theater, became a rallying cry. So might the widening ethics investigation focusing on Tsang’s overseas trips on the yachts and jets of business owners. It is feeding outrage over the collusion between politics and the corporate world, not unlike the one sweeping the mainland.

by citizen on Jun 1, 2012 at 11:54 am
Treasury secretary Martin Parkinson has raised the possibility of the Labor government abandoning its surplus pledge if the European debt crisis sparks a renewed global recession, saying that Australia’s priority should be to separate itself from turmoil affecting other parts of the world.

In testimony to the Senate’s economics committee, Dr Parkinson warned that the European crisis is “spiralling out of control” and that the Treasury department has been conducting intensive contingency planning for a new crisis since before last Christmas, according to The Australian.

http://tinyurl.com/cxze5pc

Europe is ominous, but clearly we are in good hands with Treasury and the ALP government.

by bemused on Jun 1, 2012 at 11:54 am
Zoidlord it was the song that popped into my head when I read guytaur’s post. My head is a scary place.

by davidwh on Jun 1, 2012 at 11:55 am
@4873 and 4876 – he didn’t raise it first – I believe someone in the media brought it to the publics’ attention – it was out there – it needed a response – and if he had done a “No comment” – the media and ALP would have spun that as tacit support.

by Compact Crank on Jun 1, 2012 at 11:57 am
muttleymcgee @ 4877

You’ve just taken issue with bg over his careless and confusing ramblings! Until he makes himself clear he’s open to criticism, as you are.

bg is one of the better posters on this site.
You on the other hand usually just spew your bile.

Coming from a chase the peanut artist from 40 years ago who sees a pompous twat in the mirror every morning, carry on, sunshine.

What on earth is that meant to mean? Just more bile spewing?

by bemused on Jun 1, 2012 at 11:58 am
What’s Abbott supposed to say about the Pilbersek posters?

He could have done what Gillard has done on numerous occasions i.e. laughed it off as an irrelevance. I’m sure that JG has been cut deeply by some of the nasty stuff she’s been subjected too but she has always taken it on the chin and got on with business. Abbott has again demonstrated he is just a bully with a glass jaw. What a wimp.

by Tom Hawkins on Jun 1, 2012 at 11:58 am
dave @ 4880

BG also overlooked a biggy when it comes to automatic stabilisers – flexible exchange rates.

Who can ever forget the J curve ?

Excellent point. Obviously bg and I forgot or overlooked it.

Obviously soap salesmen.

Why spoil a good post with that snarky remark?

by bemused on Jun 1, 2012 at 12:00 pm
CC.
Then Abbott could have done as others in the past. Amanda Vanstone was asked about a similar thing and laughed it os just being satire. Do not know her personal feelings on the issue.

by guytaur on Jun 1, 2012 at 12:00 pm
@4886 – citizen

Economics 101 tells Tsang that he can no more ignore the fallout from growing inequality

Let’s jsut kill that one dead right here and now. Economics 101 doesn’t tell us anything of the sort. Social and political science 101 course might, but Economics 101 certainly doesn’t.

by Compact Crank on Jun 1, 2012 at 12:01 pm
Tony Abbott (2001):

As I said, the Beazley Opposition stands for nothing except carping negativity and I don't think that the voters of Ryan should reward that kind of spinelessness.

7:30 report

http://www.abc.net.au/7.30/stories/s260899.htm

The man knows exactly what he is doing.

by bluegreen on Jun 1, 2012 at 12:01 pm
@4891 and @4893 – anything but an attack on the views implied by that poster would have been spun and twisted by you here and the media as tacit support for those views. He had to attack it – becuase they just aren’t true.

by Compact Crank on Jun 1, 2012 at 12:03 pm
bg

What do you mean, Abbott knows exactly what he is doing. He is now doing precisely what he accused Beasley of. It did not work for Beasley, so why would it work for him?

by victoria on Jun 1, 2012 at 12:05 pm
Phillip Adams resigned from the ALP on June 24, 2010 and he hasn’t rejoined since.
Yes, he’s a friend of Rudd’s, which no doubt is a cardinal sin over here in “pro-Gillard propoganda land”.

by Thornleigh Labor Man on Jun 1, 2012 at 12:05 pm
Is TLM still following his recent practice of dropping in, making three posts fishing for a response then leaving again if he is ignored?

by roaldan1000 on Jun 1, 2012 at 12:06 pm

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