Newspoll: 54-46 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes reports (though James J in comments had the numbers 45 minutes earlier) that Newspoll has the two-party preferred vote at 54-46, compared with 55-45 a fortnight ago and 59-41 the fortnight before. The primary votes are 32% for Labor (up two on last time), 46% for the Coalition (up one) and 12% for the Greens (steady). Julia Gillard’s approval rating is up three to 30% and her disapproval down three to 60%, while Tony Abbott is respectively down three and up four to 31% and 60%. Julia Gillard leads as preferred prime minister 40-37, reversing Abbott’s 40-36 lead last time.
Today’s Essential Research was less encouraging for Labor: it had them losing one of the points on two-party preferred which were clawed back over previous weeks, the result now at 57-43. Primary votes were 50% for the Coalition (up one), 33% for Labor (steady) and 10% for the Greens (steady). Other questions gauged views on the parties’ respective “attributes”, with all negative responses for Labor (chiefly “divided” and “will promise anything to win votes”) rating higher than all positives. The Liberal Party did rather better, rating well for “moderate” and “understands the problems facing Australia”. Bewilderingly, only slightly more respondents (35%) were willing to rate the state of the economy as “good” than “bad” (29%), with 33% opting for neither, although 43% rated the position of their household satisfactory against 28% unsatisfactory.
UPDATE (29/5/12): Morgan have broken the habit of a lifetime by publishing their weekend face-to-face poll results on a Tuesday, never having been known in the past to do it earlier than Thursday. My best guess is that they wished to offer a riposte to Newspoll’s relatively encouraging figures for Labor – “today’s Newspoll showing a swing to the ALP is simply unbelievable”, says Gary Morgan in the accompanying release – with their own results, which show Labor support at an all time low on every measure. The poll has Labor’s primary vote down 4.5% on the previous week to 27.5%, the Coalition up 3.5% to 49% and the Greens up 2.5% to 13%. This translates into 61.5-38.5 on respondent-allocated preferences and 58-42 on preferences as they flowed at the previous election.
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
I am rather proud to announce that, following a meeting with a local MP who saw him speak at his school graduation, my middle son is now joining his local ALP branch.
by roaldan1000 on Jun 1, 2012 at 12:58 pm
The ALP only spend up when they’re in government because the Liberals do SFA when they’re in government.
by gloryconsequence on Jun 1, 2012 at 12:59 pm
by victoria on Jun 1, 2012 at 12:59 pm
@4940 Billie – the poster is not “factual” and is derogatory – it is ALP spin. See my 4915.
by Compact Crank on Jun 1, 2012 at 12:59 pm
The ongoing disappointment of DF and his ilk that JG is still PM is quite sad to watch.
Wot, we are supposed to start seeing
as poor defenseless victim because someone put up a poster about him in their office?? LOL!
Still, they will get revitalized and feel better for a while when the Fibs finally dump
and bring in their new messiah to lead us to the promised land of prosperity after 2013. I can just see DF getting right behind Mesma for PM? CC would probably like that as well since with her death stare super power she can look after the actual defense of the country as well. 
by imacca on Jun 1, 2012 at 12:59 pm
roaldan1000
Hearty congratulations.
by victoria on Jun 1, 2012 at 12:59 pm
imacca
Wonder who the new messiah will be. Need a good laugh
by victoria on Jun 1, 2012 at 1:00 pm
Going through the old moves, I see.
* Australia Day.
* Labor addicted to deficits.
* Labor are meanies, poor Tony Abbott, nasty Tanya said something rude about him!
* Thomson
This stuff is all way past its use-by date Foxy and Crank. Unless you want to be relegated to the off-season circus, you’d better come up with some new tricks.
by Bushfire Bill on Jun 1, 2012 at 1:00 pm
Poll Bludger has ceased to be a community for people to discuss psephological matters – it’s now little more than the propoganda arm of the Gillard Labor Praetorian Guard.
Is this what William intended when he established Poll Bludger?
by Thornleigh Labor Man on Jun 1, 2012 at 1:01 pm
Well under howard’s libs rates just keep on going up and up. Under Labor rates are still well under what they took over.
The vast majority of people with mortgages do not reduce their repayments when interest rates are dropped. Depending what interest rates were when they purchased, some haven’t had to increase repayments for years and are still ahead of their agreed repayment schedule.
Even with modest inflation like we have had for sometime, repayments become “cheaper” over time because of said inflation compounding on the time value of money.
by dave on Jun 1, 2012 at 1:01 pm
guytaur
ironic much?
by lizzie on Jun 1, 2012 at 1:02 pm
How do you know Bushfire Bill??? Why hasn’t he publicly defended himself?
Victoria – The Tent Embassy people ran after Abbott because why? They were told that Abbott wanted the Tent Embassy torn down. Who said that?
by Desert Fox on Jun 1, 2012 at 1:02 pm
Abbott said he felt “threatened” by homosexuals, repeating it when prompted to withdraw it, and has used similar language about boat people. Putting the two together is just making a logical and humourous connection.
by Bushfire Bill on Jun 1, 2012 at 1:03 pm
lizzie
Yeah of course. Its Mr Law.
by guytaur on Jun 1, 2012 at 1:03 pm
PB playing up on computer today.
Signing off.
by lizzie on Jun 1, 2012 at 1:03 pm
DF
Abbott said it and the msm reported all day long. Do you have the memory of a gold fish. Seriously!!!
by victoria on Jun 1, 2012 at 1:04 pm
You don’t get it Foxy. He lost his job. He’s out of public life? What is it with you rightwing morons always wanting kangaroo courts and public humiliations. Leave off. You’ve made this place toxic.
by Bushfire Bill on Jun 1, 2012 at 1:04 pm
Crazy crank at 4843 is much worse than circular.
Howard built surpluses during a boom (in keatings economy) with the following three mechanisms:
1. Breaking promises – non-core being I lied to get here and now you aren’t getting things you need.
2. Massively cutting payments to the states – every time you are seeing bad public infrastructure blame Howard it is his fault – right when we were richest he neglected the most important things – health – education and training and infrastructure.
3. Massive taxation – he added a gst and still didn’t have enough money for the things that matter.
A but like Barnett now in WA – breaking promises, unable or unwilling to deliver in a boom and not building for a future. Putting aside money for the future when you aren’t properly providing for today let alone putting in the infrastructure for tommorrow is just a stupid political stunt.
by WeWantPaul on Jun 1, 2012 at 1:05 pm
DF
IF you want to go there again. Ask yourself this. How come people were willing to believe what they were told? Tells you the view of Aboriginals of politicians.
by guytaur on Jun 1, 2012 at 1:05 pm
BB
How did you go with that supplier from yesterday ?
by dave on Jun 1, 2012 at 1:05 pm
Tanya Plibersek’s Abbott print-outs are now showing us just how well the Streisand Effect can work.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Streisand_effect
by leone on Jun 1, 2012 at 1:06 pm
Compact Crank
Fact.
by poroti on Jun 1, 2012 at 1:07 pm
lizzie.
Have a good afternoon
by victoria on Jun 1, 2012 at 1:07 pm
I love the line where Abbott says
“I don’t believe in climate change but I do believe in Noah”
What an embarrassment to our system of government.
BTW if anyone can demonstrate that a Labor pollie has similar views then I’d be calling them an embarrassment as well.
by Tom Hawkins on Jun 1, 2012 at 1:09 pm
Actuallly I was just ont hephone to him. He told me that a lot of the things in the Bisons he hadn’t heard before. So I’m going ahead with his firm on an ad hoc basis.
It’s not the rusted ons we need to convert. It’s the punters who have voted Labor in the past, and to whom doing so is not such an alien experience. Like taking up riding a bicycle after a couple of decades. The “muscle memory” is always there. Really just a matter of knowing you have done it once, and can do it again. These people are the REAL targets.
by Bushfire Bill on Jun 1, 2012 at 1:09 pm
Victoria,
How about some facts?
Abbott NEVER said that the embassy should be torn down. Admit that you’ve got it wrong.
by Desert Fox on Jun 1, 2012 at 1:10 pm
roaldan1000 @ 4950
Congratulations to you and your son!
None of my sons were interested but I have a grand daughter who is showing promise. I am mentoring her whenever I get the opportunity.
by bemused on Jun 1, 2012 at 1:11 pm
I was amazed to see yesterday on the news.com article about the Abbott posters, people saying that Abbott can’t be a sexist because he has a wife and three daughters! Laugh out loud!
by dooby on Jun 1, 2012 at 1:12 pm
Kevin Rudd now a grandfather, Jess gave birth to a baby girl last night.
by Thornleigh Labor Man on Jun 1, 2012 at 1:13 pm
Abbott was being his usual cowardly slimy self and desperately wanted to both sound like he did want the embassy torn down but with weasel words so he coul deny afterwards. Therefore we are entitled to understand the words the way he intended in his appeal to racists and he definitely did want the embassy torn down and is a liar twice when he denie it. Fact.
by WeWantPaul on Jun 1, 2012 at 1:13 pm
TH back@4804
Yes, and that bugs me with Delroy too.
Last Newspoll night, Delroy let him go on and on for about 10 minutes with barely any comment from D let along a question. It was almost as though S’s comments were kind of the first and last word on the matter.
I find TD tries to keep even-handed but he (a) assumes that Shannas is worth listening to (b) allows the OO to set the agenda for the night and (c) then sometimes uses the material on his Night Life talkback.
As some journalist pointed out, the actually reading audience of the OO is lower than those who watch Media Watch – yet the OO is given some kind of premier status.
Worse, the other night, Shannas knew what Newspoll was going to say and then did all he could to paint the “they are as bad as one another” story with Delroy.
Now this is not media “bias” per se but it sure as hell gives one side a bit of a start.
by Tricot on Jun 1, 2012 at 1:14 pm
Desert Fox @ 4975
As you are probably well aware, Abbott was mis-reported by AAP and the report went to air through 2GB and others.
It was that mis-reporting that caused the angst.
Poor Tone, he was terrified of a few Aborigines venting their frustration and rage verbally.
by bemused on Jun 1, 2012 at 1:19 pm
@4950 – well done, we need more members of political parties. I just wonder how long it will take ofr the ALP to knock the idealism off the corners. Happens to us all.
by Compact Crank on Jun 1, 2012 at 1:22 pm
The Macquarie News Radio network said it, actually. I know you’re not interested in facts but if you think you can come on here and lie without being publicly humiliated you need to think again.
by Son of foro on Jun 1, 2012 at 1:22 pm
Thanks bemused
DF seems to be rather aggravated today
by victoria on Jun 1, 2012 at 1:23 pm
bemused
I think the AFP was more terrified. They know how Mr Abbott can stir up hate.
Otherwise why the reaction to people banging on glass making no attempt to enter?
by guytaur on Jun 1, 2012 at 1:23 pm
Good to see JWH in the news again as a reminder of what a real Elected PM looks like. Labor do have kev but he is locked up in the labor basement never to see the light of day again.
by rummel on Jun 1, 2012 at 1:23 pm
by Son of foro on Jun 1, 2012 at 1:25 pm
Why do you think he needs ELECTION NOW!!!?
I think what those 2001 lines show is that he is an actor, and he is playing a role. I wonder if rollback will work out the same way.
by bluegreen on Jun 1, 2012 at 1:25 pm
People Skills@people_skills
@albomp @tanya_plibersek @CraigEmersonMP Here’s an Abbott poster even he couldn’t object to http://lockerz.com/s/213432609
by Schnappi on Jun 1, 2012 at 1:25 pm
William, Pegasus see mine @ 4682 and @ 4763
There is also a piece in today’s Canberra Times, ‘Let slip the hated drones of war’ by Mr Peter Oborrne.
(1) We already use drones, although they are primitive by comparison with the US UAVs.
(2) It is likely that drones will eventually replace piloted aircraft. With the JSF heading well north of $100 million each, and growing rapidly, the ADF should really be having a much harder look at drones v piloted aircraft than it has done. The pace of technical development of drones in the last ten years has been stupendous. They represent one of those technological advances that have huge civil and military implications.
(3) If not already, drones will soon be cheaper than manned aircraft to monitor our sea approaches. They will also cost far less in terms of hover time than a JSF when, for example, an asylum seeker boat is detected.
(4) It is useful not to get too side-tracked about whether drones are platforms for surveillance or for delivering weapons. The latter are always both.
In my post I called for a better public policy discussion on drones. The links that Pegasus supplied do some of that. The article by Mr Oborne does some more. I won’t repeat what I have already written but I would add the following points for consideration:
(1) We do not have an open, transparent analysis of the effectiveness of drone strikes. They do depend on top quality on-the-ground information. They do have a record of killing top targets. But they also have quite a record of killing women, children and innocent men. Any analysis would have to include an assessment of the impact of drone strikes on civilian opinion. Mr Oborne states that the impact of drone strikes on Pakistani public opinion is both large and bad. In other words, there would need to be an analysis of whether drone killings do more harm than good.
(2) The 2009 White Paper paid insufficient attention to drones. The next White Paper should fix this.
(3) Drone bases are extremely easy to set up almost anywhere. All you need is a flat length of bitumen or concrete. The technical support services are highly mobile. The command and control elements stay back in the homeland. Switching from surveillance drones to armed drones would be very straightforward and very quick.
(4) An essential component of drones capacity is that of a spy plane. The US routinely overflies all sorts of countries without their permission. Australia does not. If we base US surveillance drones, have we decided to be partner to unauthorized overflights of other nations?
(5) Without open and free access to the US drone comms set-up we would are effectively handing over a significant element of sovereignty because we would simply not know where the drones are flying or what the drones are doing. I would imagine that that US would die rather than allowing Australia access to its encryption algorithms. Effectively, the US will decide what to tell us about the drones based in Australia. Based on history, this would, at the very least, have to be considered an unreliable and unpredictable source of information.
Any drones decision is very, very, important and deserves much better debate than it is getting from either the Governmernt or the Opposition.
The defence establishment, baulked of shooting down its third minister in three years, needs to stop sitting around whinging about Minister Smith and to start getting its act together on integrating drone platforms with the generality of our current and future defence forces.
by Boerwar on Jun 1, 2012 at 1:26 pm
TLM
Well for someone who bags this site, you certainly can’t seem to live without it.
I don’t read most of your stuff as you contradict yourself so many times you have blown whatever credibility you think you might have.
by Tricot on Jun 1, 2012 at 1:27 pm
@4959 – dave – the reason interest rates went up under Howard were because the economy was going gang busters – under Howards economic leadership interest rates had hit historic lows, so they were coming off an extremely low base. While I personally didn’t like it, I understod the need for the policy outcomes that were being sought by the IDEPENDENT RBA – sort of like how socialists alway say we should all pay more tax – take the personal pain for the team.
by Compact Crank on Jun 1, 2012 at 1:27 pm
[TANYA PLIBERSEK said this on Wednesday
“What we’re seeing at the moment though is a level of vitriol, nastiness, personal attack that I have never seen before… Tony Abbott has set a tone in the Parliament where he’s very front-foot, he’s very aggressive…”
So she was talking about when Swan, Crean, Gillard and so on were slagging and character assasinating Rudd in a very nasty way.
Yes I agree all those people should apologise to Rudd.
by Thomas Paine. on Jun 1, 2012 at 1:32 pm
bg
Oops. I misunderstood what you were getting at. Of course, Abbott needs an election now. Could you imagine him having to sustain his modus operandi until next Nov?!!
by victoria on Jun 1, 2012 at 1:32 pm
Interest rates will always be lower under a coalition government.
Interest rates will always be higher under a coalition government.
Take your pick.
by Roger Miller on Jun 1, 2012 at 1:33 pm
CC@4992
Just when I thought you were going to redeem yourself, you post that drivel.
by victoria on Jun 1, 2012 at 1:34 pm
Schnappi @ 4945
Err yes, where is Senator Cash’s apology for posting offensive material on the external wall of her office
by billie on Jun 1, 2012 at 1:34 pm
BW
What is a JSF doing looking at asylum boats?
Some good points about the white paper and no mention of drones. I am not sure of the niche overlap between multirole crafts like superhornets and jsf. Bombing is supposed to only be a secondary role for jsfs etc.
by bluegreen on Jun 1, 2012 at 1:34 pm
@TP/4993
TP, your crazy talking.
Nothing is going to change the polls, the election is too far away for Rudd to keep the momentum, and everyone forgotten the damage that Kevin Rudd received when he was character assassinated by the Coalition, on live TV, Radio and so on.
by zoidlord on Jun 1, 2012 at 1:35 pm