Newspoll: 54-46 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes reports (though James J in comments had the numbers 45 minutes earlier) that Newspoll has the two-party preferred vote at 54-46, compared with 55-45 a fortnight ago and 59-41 the fortnight before. The primary votes are 32% for Labor (up two on last time), 46% for the Coalition (up one) and 12% for the Greens (steady). Julia Gillard’s approval rating is up three to 30% and her disapproval down three to 60%, while Tony Abbott is respectively down three and up four to 31% and 60%. Julia Gillard leads as preferred prime minister 40-37, reversing Abbott’s 40-36 lead last time.
Today’s Essential Research was less encouraging for Labor: it had them losing one of the points on two-party preferred which were clawed back over previous weeks, the result now at 57-43. Primary votes were 50% for the Coalition (up one), 33% for Labor (steady) and 10% for the Greens (steady). Other questions gauged views on the parties’ respective “attributes”, with all negative responses for Labor (chiefly “divided” and “will promise anything to win votes”) rating higher than all positives. The Liberal Party did rather better, rating well for “moderate” and “understands the problems facing Australia”. Bewilderingly, only slightly more respondents (35%) were willing to rate the state of the economy as “good” than “bad” (29%), with 33% opting for neither, although 43% rated the position of their household satisfactory against 28% unsatisfactory.
UPDATE (29/5/12): Morgan have broken the habit of a lifetime by publishing their weekend face-to-face poll results on a Tuesday, never having been known in the past to do it earlier than Thursday. My best guess is that they wished to offer a riposte to Newspoll’s relatively encouraging figures for Labor – “today’s Newspoll showing a swing to the ALP is simply unbelievable”, says Gary Morgan in the accompanying release – with their own results, which show Labor support at an all time low on every measure. The poll has Labor’s primary vote down 4.5% on the previous week to 27.5%, the Coalition up 3.5% to 49% and the Greens up 2.5% to 13%. This translates into 61.5-38.5 on respondent-allocated preferences and 58-42 on preferences as they flowed at the previous election.
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
davidwh@596,
There are plenty of other less tasteless metaphors Mr Abbott could have chosen, don’t you think?
by C@tmomma on May 29, 2012 at 12:47 pm
by victoria on May 29, 2012 at 12:48 pm
Burgey
I am watching HOR now. Teresa Gambaro talking about Abbott’s PPL scheme.
by victoria on May 29, 2012 at 12:51 pm
I think in Abbott speak that comment was a huge compliment
by Tobe on May 29, 2012 at 12:52 pm
Dio
[Bob Carr@bobjcarr
Syrian Chargé d’affaires http://bit.ly/K2na3o
by Laocoon on May 29, 2012 at 12:52 pm
Has it ‘moved to mainstream’ really? I’d be surprised if mainstream even knew who Craig Emerson was, let alone what he was tweeting.
by ltep on May 29, 2012 at 12:53 pm
Could they have made the name longer ?
by CTar1 on May 29, 2012 at 12:53 pm
CTar1:
Ummmm,
“Spreading the Social and Economic Benefits to all Australians of the Once-in-a-Lifetime Resources Boom Committee”?
by fiona on May 29, 2012 at 12:58 pm
It has to correspond with Clive Palmer’s fat!
by Centre on May 29, 2012 at 1:00 pm
View details ·
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by victoria on May 29, 2012 at 1:02 pm
If you did a line-up with the genral public I would be surprised if you could get a majority to point outr more than fiv emembers of the ALP: Gillard, Swan, Rudd, Garrett, Carr
by bluegreen on May 29, 2012 at 1:02 pm
by victoria on May 29, 2012 at 1:03 pm
Maybe not even that. My sister didn’t know who Bob Carr was and I yesterday heard someone say “What’s the name of the Treasurer again? Wayne Goose?”
by ltep on May 29, 2012 at 1:05 pm
by victoria on May 29, 2012 at 1:06 pm
Congratulations to the ETU for working as a union should and getting their members redundancy entitlements.
Compare this to the HSU whose officials are spending their time with internal factional fighting and show boating
Health services workers deserve better.
by liyana on May 29, 2012 at 1:06 pm
Fiona & Centre – Maybe ‘and we’ll get around to doing over the miners properly in due course (Clive included)’ added to the end?’.
It’s catchy but don’t try it after a drink.
by CTar1 on May 29, 2012 at 1:07 pm
liyana
My son is a member of the ETU. This union gets results for its members. No doubt about it
by victoria on May 29, 2012 at 1:07 pm
Great stuff from Paul Keating in 1994 on Bronwyn Bishop and Tony Abbott
by spur212 on May 29, 2012 at 1:08 pm
That why the voters have not got a Clue what is going on in the economy and rely on sound bites pumped out by the media, they are IGNORANT of the facts!.
by 1934pc on May 29, 2012 at 1:10 pm
sprocket
Good question?
by victoria on May 29, 2012 at 1:10 pm
Using the same logic, don’t build roads because that will only encourage speedsters and road rage.
by citizen on May 29, 2012 at 1:10 pm
1934pc
If you don’t talk in an interesting way, no one listens to you.
by bluegreen on May 29, 2012 at 1:11 pm
If you accept Mr Blair’s view, as Lord Levenson seemed to, that it is okay for a paper or media group to be biased so long as it was based on fact and not commentary or made up facts, what implications are there in a country that has virtually one media outlet with no room for alternative bias?
Add to that a state broadcaster, who for some reason can’t enjoy that same proposition of being biased and Mr Blair’s further assertion that it is media rules and not ownership that is the problem.
What do our own media enquiry make of this?
by Dr Phibes on May 29, 2012 at 1:12 pm
by Space Kidette on May 29, 2012 at 1:14 pm
Spur there was a lot of irony in those words of Keating. Those fogies went on to govern Australia through a golden age of prosperity and growth. Not bad for fogies, old or new.
by davidwh on May 29, 2012 at 1:14 pm
CTar1:
Part of our training when reading law was the cultivation of the ability to say “Pith and substance” when, erm, a little tired and emotional.
By comparison,
would be a doddle.
by fiona on May 29, 2012 at 1:14 pm
Vic
Usually someone is designated as the source to relay the information about the meeting. The journos oblige by not mentioning the persons name.
by bluegreen on May 29, 2012 at 1:14 pm
And how many would ordinary voters know in the Coalition bluegreen?
Speaking of polls Bluegreen, two Newspolls ago when it was 59/41, I said the polls could quickly turn 5% to 54/49.
Of course we had to read all your hubris doom and gloom and you stated the way Gillard was going the polls were more likely to read 64/36.
I was right like usual and you were wrong
by Centre on May 29, 2012 at 1:14 pm
citizen
And for context as to how the AFR ranks this story…the headline was on the front page!
by Laocoon on May 29, 2012 at 1:15 pm
vic
aren’t journalists allowed in the party rooms? apparently latika has also been in the labor caucus meeting
by Lyne Lady on May 29, 2012 at 1:15 pm
Oops, that should have read:
At least, perhaps, maybe …
by fiona on May 29, 2012 at 1:16 pm
hmmm.. so help out Gina and the Netwok Ten political reporter blows your tune. Savvy work.
by middle man on May 29, 2012 at 1:16 pm
Whave I said this. My prediction for this Newspoll was 43:57 Abbott approval down and Gillard steady
On the coalition, they would ID Abbott, Hockey, Turnbull and thats it.
by bluegreen on May 29, 2012 at 1:16 pm
I don’t think the “she’s not going to lay down an die” comment is particularly bad. One of my dad’s common sayings, usually when seeing one of my kids fighting against all odds to stay awake, is “he’s dead but he won’t lie down”. For what it’s worth the smh reported Richard Marles in the ALP caucus meeting as describing Abbott as “”"a dog” of a candidate”. If Abbott had used words like that, imagine the reaction.
Abbott is an idiot and says lots of distasteful things, but I think there is a danger of over-egging the pudding if we go looking for the tiniest little thing. His gaffes are like buses – there will be another one along shortly.
by Gorilla on May 29, 2012 at 1:16 pm
BG
I base my comments on logic, not crap!.
by 1934pc on May 29, 2012 at 1:17 pm
I live with a genX new media addict. Mobiles (plural) and android ring constantly, many simply updating Twitter, You Tube, Face Book, ebay … even a few Friends & interests blogs, but not many. But almost no RSS feeds. And that’s Old GenX, not the younger half.
Parliamentarians on new media, esp with lively tweets, Face Book pages etc, reach the young, esp if they go where the young are. Mastery of new media is one of Rudd’s family’s greatest assets; in Swan’s case, it’s his with-it singer daughter.
by OzPol Tragic on May 29, 2012 at 1:17 pm
spur212 – On PJK: In the very old 4Corners ‘Utah’ where a fairly young Tony Jones (I think) skewered Joh Bejkle there is a less than 15 second clear and consise explanation by PJK of why a mining tax should be applied.
Lost gold.
by CTar1 on May 29, 2012 at 1:19 pm
LL
Journos sit in on caucus meetings??
by victoria on May 29, 2012 at 1:22 pm
OzPol Tragic, how can you reach someone on new media if they’re not looking? It doesn’t make sense. It’s not like, say, the TV news where people might happen to be in the room when it’s on, or have their radio on in their car. You need to actively seek out new media and look at it – which the politically uninterested are very unlikely to do, at least outside of election periods.
by ltep on May 29, 2012 at 1:23 pm
You would be in the minority who are swayed solely by logic.
Aristotle would disagree. Logic is only a tiniest part of why people listen and why people believe you.
by bluegreen on May 29, 2012 at 1:23 pm
Over at The Drum, the guys from Essential Media say:
Indeed!
by fiona on May 29, 2012 at 1:24 pm
ltep
I agree entirely about new media. It is about coralling groups of likeminded individuals. Not about changing minds. Look what happens here is someone posts something the majority don’t like. They get abused until they leave. Never persuaded.
by bluegreen on May 29, 2012 at 1:25 pm
fiona – I was going to cut and paste the whole thing together but it was getting a bit ‘python’ for me and I wouldn’t have been able to restrain myself from adding the ‘Werking families freedom from paying tax at all (at the expense of large people) liberation front’ somewhere in the middle of it.
by CTar1 on May 29, 2012 at 1:25 pm
I suppose a benefit might be that if someone suddenly had the urge to find some information they could turn to the new media. That’s more a ‘better than nothing’ argument than a major game changer though.
by ltep on May 29, 2012 at 1:27 pm
And pissed it away like a bus load of sherried up pensioners flogging the pokies at Twin Towns.
by Son of foro on May 29, 2012 at 1:27 pm
Bluegren give us all a break. Typical Tory; no recollection, can’t recall LOL
Go back to the Newspoll 59/41 thread. I said that the polls could easilly swing 5% to 54/46, you replied saying Gillard was going so badly they were more likely to swing 5%the other way to 64/36.
Do you still think Gillard should be sacked according to the polls given that Howard fared no better in 98, 01 and 04.
Let me give you another tip, like Howard who went on to win from behind, so will Julia
by Centre on May 29, 2012 at 1:28 pm
ltep
The benefit for political parties is to try and communicate directly to journos and shape national debate.
by bluegreen on May 29, 2012 at 1:29 pm
Yes I still think Gillard is not going to win and I still think Kevin Rudd would.
by bluegreen on May 29, 2012 at 1:30 pm
by victoria on May 29, 2012 at 1:33 pm
by victoria on May 29, 2012 at 1:33 pm