Seat of the week: Robertson
Roy Morgan’s effort to pull the rug from under Newspoll on Tuesday, as noted in the update to the previous post, has deprived me of my usual Friday poll thread. It us thus left to Seat of the Week to fly the flag on its lonesome. The latest instalment looks at the NSW Central Coast seat of Robertson, held for Labor by what on present indications looks to be an undefendable margin of 1.0%.
One of the happier aspects of the 2010 election for Labor was an apparent tactical win in New South Wales, where a statewide swing of 4.8% yielded the Coalition a notional gain of only four seats – half of what would have been achieved on a uniform swing. Remarkably, the four marginals Labor retained against the trend – all of which were outside Sydney – were the only four in the state which swung in Labor’s favour: Eden-Monaro (2.0% swing), Page (1.8%), Dobell (1.1%) and, most fortuitiously, Robertson, where a winning margin of just 0.1% from 2007 became 1.0% in 2010. This was despite the unceremonious departure of Labor’s accident-prone sitting member, Belinda Neal.
Robertson covers the coast about 60 kilometres north of Sydney, with the Hawkesbury River marking its southern boundary with Berowra. All but a small share of its voters live at its coastal end, which includes Labor-leaning Woy Woy, Liberal-leaning Terrigal and marginal Gosford. The remainder of the electorate covers Popran National Park, McPherson State Forest and the Mangrove Creek dam. Although technically a federation seat, it was a different beast when it was created, covering the inland rural areas of Mudgee, Singleton and Scone.
As Robertson was drawn over time into the increasingly urbanised coast, the conservatives’ hold weakened to the point where Barry Cohen was able to gain it for Labor in 1969, and to withstand the party’s disasters of 1975 and 1977. The seat drifted back slightly in the Liberals’ favour thereafter, and was held by them throughout the Howard years by Jim Lloyd, who unseated Labor’s Frank Walker with a 9.2% swing in 1996.
Robertson returned to the Labor fold in 2007 when a 7.0% swing delivered a 184-vote winning margin to their candidate Belinda Neal, wife of Right faction powerbroker and then senior state minister John Della Bosca. Neal had earlier served in the Senate from 1994 until 1998, when she quit to make a first unsuccessful run in Robertson. Once elected Neal soon made a name for herself with a peculiar parliamentary attack on a pregnant Sophie Mirabella, and an episode in which she allegedly abused staff at Gosford restaurant-nightclub Iguana Joe’s. In 2009 her husband, who had been present during the Iguana Joe’s fracas, resigned as state Health Minister after it was revealed he was having an affair with a 26-year-old woman.
Suggestions that Neal’s preselection might be in danger emerged soon after the Iguana Joe’s incident. A challenger emerged in the shape of Deborah O’Neill, an education teacher at the University of Newcastle and narrowly unsuccessful state candidate for Gosford in 2003. O’Neill won the favour of local branches and, so Peter van Onselen of The Australian reported, “NSW Labor Right powerbrokers”. The national executive allowed the decision to be determined by a normal rank-and-file ballot, in which O’Neill defeated Neal 98 votes to 67. O’Neill went on to prevail at the election against Liberal candidate Darren Jameson, a local police sergeant.
The preselected Liberal candidate for the next election is Lucy Wicks, who has contentiously been imposed on the local branches by the fiat of the party’s state executive. Barclay Crawford of the Daily Telegraph reports this occurred at the insistence of Tony Abbott, who lacked confidence in the local party organisation owing to its poor performance at the 2010 election and the recent preselection of a problematic candidate in Dobell.
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Categories: Federal Election 2013, Federal Politics 2010-
BB, the day I come around to “the gang’s” way of thinking is the day I propose to put myself out of my misery.
by William Bowe on Jun 3, 2012 at 3:03 pm
Verbose, politically vain, an over-consumer of bandwidth…..phew
by briefly on Jun 3, 2012 at 3:04 pm
briefly @ 1401
Where were we when C@tmomma needed us?
by bemused on Jun 3, 2012 at 3:06 pm
The lack of political news stories over this weekend is surreal. Its not as if legislation did not pass the Reps last week. New reports were released, draft reports for comment were also released, so why no stories in the ‘news’?
by ruawake on Jun 3, 2012 at 3:07 pm
briefly,
You forgot about “turgid”…
by fiona on Jun 3, 2012 at 3:08 pm
Bemused aren’t you supposed to be at the card table on the touch line during winter weekends?
by Oakeshott Country on Jun 3, 2012 at 3:08 pm
Timely memories, Acerbic, especially with the Olympics coming up. When was Daley’s big year, 1984? His records have no doubt been overtaken by now, but my opinion then was that he was the greatest athlete in the world.
There were ten events in the Decathlon and from memory Daley on the basis of his performances would have been an individual Olympic finalist in at least seven of those, had he contested those instead of his chosen event. That’s an amazing level of athleticism and versatility.
by Gorgeous Dunny on Jun 3, 2012 at 3:09 pm
bemused, I was having lunch….completely missed the whole thing….I hope she will be soon forgiven. It is very easy to be riled by the pompous.
by briefly on Jun 3, 2012 at 3:09 pm
fran
wow, talk about shifting goalposts!
The scenario given was that they all sat down and wrote what they wanted to see in the constitution, not how they would answer a survey.
I credit the average Australian with a bit more nous than you do…which is based on my involvement in the debate in the community when proposed constitutional changes were being discussed. Most people do have opinions about the way they are governed.
Again, shifting goalposts. You said that, in most electorates, people only had two choices. That’s simply wrong.
They do have a wider range of choices than that – I would expect that more than 143 seats offered more than two candidates. That they chose not to take the road less travelled suggests they don’t want to.
So it seems you can’t defend your argument on its merits, but must quickly shift ground when challenged and hope no one notices.
by zoomster on Jun 3, 2012 at 3:09 pm
Is Marx that bloke who spent his life writing about workers even though he never did any himself, with his wife and kids living in poverty in London at one point while he sat around in the Library reading, and who sponged off his millionaire mate Engels most of the time?
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jun 3, 2012 at 3:11 pm
OC @ 1405
Huh?
by bemused on Jun 3, 2012 at 3:11 pm
should read, ‘never did any work himself’.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jun 3, 2012 at 3:12 pm
William, when we did call for a member of the ‘tribe’ to be banned – as bludgers did fairly consistently with kezza a few days ago – you dismissed the concerns.
I’m not sure why accusations of rape are less serious than name calling, but it’s your blog.
by zoomster on Jun 3, 2012 at 3:13 pm
Oh yes, fiona. I agree. We should add this to the inventory of blog-related-offenses. (I left it out because it sounds sort of unsanitary and I was eating at the time.)
I think we should all strive to be either pithy or lucid.
by briefly on Jun 3, 2012 at 3:14 pm
As I said, “tribe” is a much better word.
C@tmomma has been a great contributor here. Letting slip a word which, upon reflection, may have been better left out, but surely doesn’t merit full banning. Sin-binning would be more appropriate.
On the other hand “bitch” is a word that has been pretty much thrown around lately. You could almost say it’s become part of the lexicon since “Bob Brown’s Bitch” days saw Tony Abbott himself standing under a so-worded sign. The word almost has an aura of respectability attached to it, since the man who would be Prime Minister so graphically endorsed it, as well as Lady Of The House, Bronwyn Bishop and the glorious Puff Adder herself, shoulder to shoulder.
A catty (or should I say “C@tty”?) exchange hardly warrants banning, especially since it’s over a trouble-making blow-in like Fran Barlow, trying to detox herself off the heady intellectual vapours of LP.
Perhaps just a stern admonition would be in order? Most of the tribe react pretty well to that. Something like, “Can you stop being an ignorant moron, C@tmomma?” sounds about right, and in tune with your general attitude to The Tribe.
Fran Barlow delenda est.
by Bushfire Bill on Jun 3, 2012 at 3:15 pm
I’d rather be called a bitch than to be accused of being abused as a child by my father. That commenter has never apologised for his/her remark, yet still freely comments here.
by confessions on Jun 3, 2012 at 3:15 pm
Puff, the Magic Dragon.
What better revenge of the proletariat than to exploit their oppressors ?
by poroti on Jun 3, 2012 at 3:16 pm
confessions @ 1415
I recall the event you refer to and your subsequent squeals.
You entirely mis-represented what was said, as you often do.
by bemused on Jun 3, 2012 at 3:18 pm
briefly,
I think I can do pith, but lucidity eludes me
by fiona on Jun 3, 2012 at 3:18 pm
BB
Shouldn’t it be “Ceterum autem censeo Fran Barlow esse delendam”?
by ruawake on Jun 3, 2012 at 3:20 pm
Kezza may have gotten a bit lucky the other day, but her comment was so unhinged that I simply couldn’t take it seriously, and I don’t think it could reasonably be interpreted as an “accusation of rape”. In any case, Zoomster, I’m disappointed that you in particular were happy to cheer C@tmomma along. I thought you were better than that. If censure had been offered from her peers, I suspect she might have felt sufficiently chastened to have given Fran the apology she is clearly due off her own bat.
by William Bowe on Jun 3, 2012 at 3:20 pm
briefly
You need to do more plant biology. Turgid and turgidity are wonderful things in plant cells. Not being turgid is usually baaad.
by poroti on Jun 3, 2012 at 3:20 pm
I, too, tried LP again. Not if I have to sit through “Those were the days, my friends” boring happenings without being again a bright young skinny thing in a mini with “legs right up to her armpits” and the relief of walking to the stereo & upping a better sound, like this http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9SQAdwdTSTM&feature=related or, indeed, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SbyAZQ45uww
Oh for the legs to wear those dresses again!
by OzPol Tragic on Jun 3, 2012 at 3:21 pm
bemused:
I recall exactly what was said. It was low rent, abusive crap from a person who likes to accuse others of intolerance and abuse.
by confessions on Jun 3, 2012 at 3:21 pm
Actually, Wiliam, I don’t think I did!!
I certainly didn’t defend the comment when peg pointed it out to me.
But thanks for the compliment – and the response.
by zoomster on Jun 3, 2012 at 3:22 pm
confessions @ 1415, that is really an evil thing to say. I know what kind of harm is done to children when they are subjected to physical and emotional abuse. The wounds so seldom ever heal up. Whoever made that statement should be thoroughly ashamed of themselves.
by briefly on Jun 3, 2012 at 3:22 pm
Again, I don’t care how many people want to join in the shameful bully-boy assault which is being directed at Fran at present. I am not going to be persuaded by it, and nor should I. I am right, and you are wrong.
by William Bowe on Jun 3, 2012 at 3:23 pm
confessions @ 1423
Rubbish. You completely mis-represented what was said and you continue to do so and continue to squeal about it. Grow up.
by bemused on Jun 3, 2012 at 3:24 pm
Poroti,
Indeed – and not just in plant cells!
However, I was suggesting “turgid” in its usually-listed primary meaning.
by fiona on Jun 3, 2012 at 3:25 pm
You are quite right, poroti, I do. Is that botany? I could go for extra botany.
by briefly on Jun 3, 2012 at 3:25 pm
briefly @ 1425
Well, it would be if it had been said. But it wasn’t.
by bemused on Jun 3, 2012 at 3:26 pm
Mr. Bowe, I am RighT and You are wRONg. It’s always been like that on PB.
by The Finnigans on Jun 3, 2012 at 3:26 pm
Gus
Count me as a Thommo alone one.
by Gorgeous Dunny on Jun 3, 2012 at 3:27 pm
Well done William.
I have a beautiful bitch. In fact we have a total of four lovely bitches in our extended family. They are very friendly and their tails are always wagging. I do not like Catmomma using word bitch to describe FB. It is very sexist and caninist to use the word for female dog as an insult.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jun 3, 2012 at 3:27 pm
I am quite happy to read FB’s posts and respond, if I feel like it.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jun 3, 2012 at 3:28 pm
Just try and say that while you’re eating! Now I have a lithp…..
by briefly on Jun 3, 2012 at 3:28 pm
briefly:
Apparently, according to the individual, it explains my “pathological hatred” for Kevin Rudd.
Who knew?! I certainly didn’t.
by confessions on Jun 3, 2012 at 3:28 pm
fiona
Unfortunately I was introduced to the word in botanic rather than literary terms and so it is my primary understanding of the word. All good fun
by poroti on Jun 3, 2012 at 3:29 pm
Bemused, the invective stings….always does somewhere….:(
by briefly on Jun 3, 2012 at 3:30 pm
Puuufffyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy, solly about that. i aint got any bitches in our house. got awifey
by The Finnigans on Jun 3, 2012 at 3:30 pm
Well, we tried playing “nice”. What if we sent Channel 7 around to your house to hang out under the bathroom window while you’re having a shower, eh?
If that doesn’t work, then Brandis Of The Bailey might like to have “a little word” in your ear. Wouldn’t like that, would you?
If all else fails, we could tie you down and force you to listen to The Collected Speeches Of Christopher Pyne. They all have a breaking point (as Tony Abbott is wont to say)
At the moment you sound more PC than LP about FB.
(you have to be a blogger to get that one).
by Bushfire Bill on Jun 3, 2012 at 3:31 pm
poroti,
Good clean fun, I trust?
by fiona on Jun 3, 2012 at 3:31 pm
In the AFR 2 June (Weekend edition) paywalled, in the paper it’s page 13 with the title HSU battle brewing
http://afr.com/p/national/nsw_govt_nominates_barrister_for_ExwBJdfugLcCjztq9ewV3M
In the rest of the article it turns out the barrister is Jeffrey Phillips SC, who has spoken out in favour of Kathy Jackson in the journal Workplace Review. Turns out he is also a past branch member of the Liberal Party. This attempt will be opposed by the the HSU branch secretaries, as you might expect. The Federal govt will also be seeking to point an Administrator, don’t know who at this stage, not mentioned in the article. Kathy jackosn is trying to get all the the HSU East exec dismissed, except herself & Marco Bolano. Can’t see anyone else going for that. The Interstate HSU & feds will pushing for a clean sweep.
http://www.jeffreyphillipssc.com/about/
by Leroy on Jun 3, 2012 at 3:33 pm
Wow. What an interesting day in Bludgerland. The least said about it, the better.
On a far more important issue:
Gussie, put me down also for Thommo with a wink to the Indies.
From what I saw on the day, the Government were clearly almost as blindsided as the Opposition. There was no way any of this was workshopped beforehand.
BUT … I heard either Windsor or Oakeshott speaking about it afterwards and they indicated it as usual practice for Indies to not support gag motions. I wonder whether one or both of them had a word in Thommo’s shell-like and let him know that:
1) this would not be against precedent, and
2) it would give Abbott and Co the shits.
Also, it seemed to me from what I could see that the Indies were enjoying it enormously
by Danny Lewis on Jun 3, 2012 at 3:34 pm
Bloody hell, BB! That is beyond cruel and unusual punishment. I wouldn’t even do that to Pyne!
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jun 3, 2012 at 3:36 pm
Zoomster said:
If they are unfamiliar with the conceptions, how can they contribute more than generalities to a discussion? How could they strongly hold any POV? Hence my guess that the number of different options would fall quickly to a handful.
No … you needed to interpret my remarks in context. It would have been absurd for me to claim that most electorates only have tow candidates. This whole discussion has been about whether the two majors are an accurate reflection of the sentiment in the populace.
If it is clear to all those voting in 95% of cases that only one of two candidates can win then the real decision is which of the majors to support after your own preferred losing candidate. Either that, or as I do, you vote informal.
On a separate matter, I have no opinion on William Bowe’s decision to ban a commenter for using the term “b|tch”. I regard the term as inevitably misogynistic, regardless of who deploys it and against whom it is deployed. It’s a declaration that trades on the view that women, when troubling to others, are to be paired with subhumans.
The Dictionary of the Vulgar Tongue (1811) notes of the term:
I discourage it strongly amongst my students, and it should be noted here that the majority of users of the term where I teach are females.
by Fran Barlow on Jun 3, 2012 at 3:36 pm
Oh, I see…..exasperating and insulting and confounding all at once…..bad blood….perhaps there should be a PB “Truth and Reconciliation” session.
by briefly on Jun 3, 2012 at 3:37 pm
At least we’ve got a reprieve from Ruddstoration. Can’t remember the last Ruddstoration-free Sunday.
by confessions on Jun 3, 2012 at 3:37 pm
Surely that would be in contravention of the Geneva Convention!
by BK on Jun 3, 2012 at 3:37 pm
re c@tmomma,
I’m also disturbed about the banning of c@tmomma. Please reconsider William.
by janice2 on Jun 3, 2012 at 3:38 pm