Seat of the week: Robertson
Roy Morgan’s effort to pull the rug from under Newspoll on Tuesday, as noted in the update to the previous post, has deprived me of my usual Friday poll thread. It us thus left to Seat of the Week to fly the flag on its lonesome. The latest instalment looks at the NSW Central Coast seat of Robertson, held for Labor by what on present indications looks to be an undefendable margin of 1.0%.
One of the happier aspects of the 2010 election for Labor was an apparent tactical win in New South Wales, where a statewide swing of 4.8% yielded the Coalition a notional gain of only four seats – half of what would have been achieved on a uniform swing. Remarkably, the four marginals Labor retained against the trend – all of which were outside Sydney – were the only four in the state which swung in Labor’s favour: Eden-Monaro (2.0% swing), Page (1.8%), Dobell (1.1%) and, most fortuitiously, Robertson, where a winning margin of just 0.1% from 2007 became 1.0% in 2010. This was despite the unceremonious departure of Labor’s accident-prone sitting member, Belinda Neal.
Robertson covers the coast about 60 kilometres north of Sydney, with the Hawkesbury River marking its southern boundary with Berowra. All but a small share of its voters live at its coastal end, which includes Labor-leaning Woy Woy, Liberal-leaning Terrigal and marginal Gosford. The remainder of the electorate covers Popran National Park, McPherson State Forest and the Mangrove Creek dam. Although technically a federation seat, it was a different beast when it was created, covering the inland rural areas of Mudgee, Singleton and Scone.
As Robertson was drawn over time into the increasingly urbanised coast, the conservatives’ hold weakened to the point where Barry Cohen was able to gain it for Labor in 1969, and to withstand the party’s disasters of 1975 and 1977. The seat drifted back slightly in the Liberals’ favour thereafter, and was held by them throughout the Howard years by Jim Lloyd, who unseated Labor’s Frank Walker with a 9.2% swing in 1996.
Robertson returned to the Labor fold in 2007 when a 7.0% swing delivered a 184-vote winning margin to their candidate Belinda Neal, wife of Right faction powerbroker and then senior state minister John Della Bosca. Neal had earlier served in the Senate from 1994 until 1998, when she quit to make a first unsuccessful run in Robertson. Once elected Neal soon made a name for herself with a peculiar parliamentary attack on a pregnant Sophie Mirabella, and an episode in which she allegedly abused staff at Gosford restaurant-nightclub Iguana Joe’s. In 2009 her husband, who had been present during the Iguana Joe’s fracas, resigned as state Health Minister after it was revealed he was having an affair with a 26-year-old woman.
Suggestions that Neal’s preselection might be in danger emerged soon after the Iguana Joe’s incident. A challenger emerged in the shape of Deborah O’Neill, an education teacher at the University of Newcastle and narrowly unsuccessful state candidate for Gosford in 2003. O’Neill won the favour of local branches and, so Peter van Onselen of The Australian reported, “NSW Labor Right powerbrokers”. The national executive allowed the decision to be determined by a normal rank-and-file ballot, in which O’Neill defeated Neal 98 votes to 67. O’Neill went on to prevail at the election against Liberal candidate Darren Jameson, a local police sergeant.
The preselected Liberal candidate for the next election is Lucy Wicks, who has contentiously been imposed on the local branches by the fiat of the party’s state executive. Barclay Crawford of the Daily Telegraph reports this occurred at the insistence of Tony Abbott, who lacked confidence in the local party organisation owing to its poor performance at the 2010 election and the recent preselection of a problematic candidate in Dobell.
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Categories: Federal Election 2013, Federal Politics 2010-
fiona
Thank you (and to your OH) for that. But where did you hide the pictures?
by Boerwar on Jun 3, 2012 at 7:57 pm
Scringler,
I don’t use the processed stuff – just go out in the garden and pick a piece, slice the skin off one side, scrape off the clear gel and apply it on the skin for sunburn etc.
by janice2 on Jun 3, 2012 at 7:59 pm
Dee @ 1825
I am not taken in by that sweet little old lady act.
I ignored the first few snarky posts and then responded.
by bemused on Jun 3, 2012 at 7:59 pm
j2
So, how do you smoke it?
by Boerwar on Jun 3, 2012 at 8:00 pm
What a pity. It looks like j6p’s brother is going to get wet in the rain in London for the Great Jubilee Steam, Sail and Row Past.
What a great treat for lovers of boats and ships of all kinds.
by Boerwar on Jun 3, 2012 at 8:01 pm
just reading that article in the smh regarding the asylum seeker boats… dark dark times and disturbing affairs.
by middle man on Jun 3, 2012 at 8:01 pm
mm
Yes. It is terrible.
by Boerwar on Jun 3, 2012 at 8:02 pm
fiona – I can remember one of those in action.
Our party line ring was ‘dit dit dar’.
by CTar1 on Jun 3, 2012 at 8:02 pm
And how long will it be before Abbott and Co start dissing the man?
by BK on Jun 3, 2012 at 8:02 pm
BK – You’re obviously dreamin’
by BH on Jun 3, 2012 at 8:02 pm
Dunkirk boats present… wonderful history.
by Boerwar on Jun 3, 2012 at 8:03 pm
boer. it is a topic that really strains my belief in the ALP….
by middle man on Jun 3, 2012 at 8:03 pm
The BBC can’t even keep the lens of a camera dry. Bloody hopeless.
by Boerwar on Jun 3, 2012 at 8:04 pm
Traitor is a serious claim, Boerwar. He is no traitor, but he is opportunistic and will try to invent something from nothing. This is not the first time he has tried to create the illusion of an issue. He is a political bantamweight and no match for Stephen Smith.
by briefly on Jun 3, 2012 at 8:04 pm
A junk. A steamboat which sailed in Victoria’s jubilee…. could that be the first triple-expansion thornycroft boat that created such an uproar?
by Boerwar on Jun 3, 2012 at 8:05 pm
Time to go….happy blogging y’all.
by briefly on Jun 3, 2012 at 8:05 pm
BW,
The link seems to work for me, but anyway try about halfway down this page:
http://www.bighistory.net/a-brief-history-of-telephone/
by fiona on Jun 3, 2012 at 8:06 pm
There are no true conservatives in Australia any longer.
And the Greens are all mainstream now. Except for the stray communist here and there, but they don’t represent the mainstream, and nor do their arguments stack up in 21st century Australia.
by confessions on Jun 3, 2012 at 8:06 pm
traitor
He is betraying Australia by undermining troop morale uring a time of war by claiming that the Government is not giving them the support they need by cutting defence spending.
by Boerwar on Jun 3, 2012 at 8:07 pm
There is a wide divergence in Greens thinking. We are rarely exposed to it on Bludger. IMHO, Bludger would be improved with such an exposure.
by Boerwar on Jun 3, 2012 at 8:08 pm
One reason may be because of the kinds of unflattering posts directed at them whenever they have something to say on PB.
by Gary Sparrow on Jun 3, 2012 at 8:08 pm
Boerwar,
Dunno. Why would you want to smoke it?
by janice2 on Jun 3, 2012 at 8:08 pm
I’d rather take monotony over tediousness.
The best part about today is there’s been no Ruddstoration in sight. Long may it continue.
by confessions on Jun 3, 2012 at 8:08 pm
CTar1,
And everyone else on the party line would pick up to listen in?
I think I have vague memories of one at my great-aunt’s place in far northern NSW.
by fiona on Jun 3, 2012 at 8:09 pm
Fiona
Thank you. I think Atticus using one in the movie called ‘To Kill a Mockingbird’. But I might be wrong.
by Boerwar on Jun 3, 2012 at 8:09 pm
i was surprised that our recent Green contributor Fran spent so much time talking marxist theory yet so little time talking about trees or biodiversity etc…
by middle man on Jun 3, 2012 at 8:10 pm
Janice2,
Two other excellent home cures for burns (including sunburn) are sliced tomatoes, and damp tea leaves – even a damp tea bag will do, and might even be better, because you can secure it round, for example, a finger
by fiona on Jun 3, 2012 at 8:11 pm
mm
I don’t think Marx was a GAIAN.
by Boerwar on Jun 3, 2012 at 8:11 pm
briefly @ 1736
Are you a practising Economist?
I certainly agree with what you are saying.
I studied Economics at University, including Econometrics, so I can follow the arguments, but do not really keep up like you obviously do.
by bemused on Jun 3, 2012 at 8:12 pm
fiona – Yep. There was a ‘click’ if someone else picked up a handset on the circuit.
If you wanted to make a call you had to wait your turn.
by CTar1 on Jun 3, 2012 at 8:13 pm
and surely if the workers really did want to own the means of production why didn’t the unions have a shot at more ‘worker’ buy outs – organise a bit of capital whilst doing all that organising of labour.
by middle man on Jun 3, 2012 at 8:13 pm
The commentary on APAC is banal, unfortunately.
by Boerwar on Jun 3, 2012 at 8:14 pm
Is Fran a Green?! I thought she was DLP.
The pious sanctimony and all…
by confessions on Jun 3, 2012 at 8:14 pm
Boerwar
Two things form your posts today have me a little puzzled.
1. What has Mr Johnstone done that incurs your ire?
2. You have referred to a SIEV being lost with 105 passengers on board. My understanding is that occurred months ago and was reported at the time. All that seems to be new is the delay in Australian agencies reporting it to the Indonesians. Am I correct?
Over to you.
by bemused on Jun 3, 2012 at 8:15 pm
bemused. “all that seems to be new”… i think the reporting of this is a very important piece of information.. not just ‘all that seems to be new’… i may have misread your post but you dont seem to think it important?
by middle man on Jun 3, 2012 at 8:18 pm
I just realised that I’ll have to be on the flatlands every day this week. Mercifully parliament won’t be sitting.
by BK on Jun 3, 2012 at 8:20 pm
WHAT ABOUT THOSE MELBOURNE DEES GLENNY!
by ShowsOn on Jun 3, 2012 at 8:21 pm
GS:
Can you name one genuine conservative in Australian public life? Not the claque of reactionary fools who litter our public discourse claiming all manner of conservative viewpoints, but genuine conservatives who can articulate the issues of today in conservative principles.
by confessions on Jun 3, 2012 at 8:23 pm
BK,
I must say that I’m relishing the prospect of no parliament for the next fortnight, and am looking forward even more to the winter recess!
by fiona on Jun 3, 2012 at 8:23 pm
Fiona @1876
So many good home remedies abound.
by janice2 on Jun 3, 2012 at 8:24 pm
b
There have been numerous attempts since the budget by war mongering neocon-type defence establishment-defending MSM journos attacking the Government’s handling of defence spending. The articles, lots of them, have been markedly shoddy intellectually. But they have been uniformly nasty.
The topic is far too important for people to be running such blatantly partisan lines. The aim, it appears, is to undermine the Defence Minister. This mob have destroyed the careers of defence minister after defence minister. They are used to having their way. Right on cue, in blunders Mr Johnstone.
His public statement, at a time of war, was appalling. He deserves to be sacked.
I thnk you are correct. (In case you missed the context, Rummel used it as an opportunity to try to blame the Government when we all know that it is Mr Abbott’s intransigence which is stopping the operation of the Malaysian solution.)
by Boerwar on Jun 3, 2012 at 8:24 pm
middle man @ 1884
A case of poor expression. Obviously I am horrified at the loss of life. I am also horrified that any delay by Australian authorities could have contributed to it.
It demands a proper inquiry, possibly including the earlier case of SIEVX, and people should be held accountable if appropriate.
by bemused on Jun 3, 2012 at 8:27 pm
Agreed bemused. What i found interesting is that this is the first open mention of us infiltrating netwiorks and monitoring boats before they even embark.
by middle man on Jun 3, 2012 at 8:30 pm
BW:
You might find these links of interest:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ebonite
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vulcanization
And I hope that you are enjoying Whose Body?
First time, or a re-read?
by fiona on Jun 3, 2012 at 8:30 pm
Martin Parkinson actually talked about this a bit in Senate estimates last week when Barnaby Joyce and Mathias Cormann were running a tag team on how terrible debt is and how fiscal stimulus never works. Parkinson said it is a long held “bipartisan” policy that fiscal policy had to be rethought when the economy faced significant external shocks, and that leaving things up to monetary policy alone to deal with shocks would most likely result in more debt and higher unemployment than also using fiscal stimulus.
by ShowsOn on Jun 3, 2012 at 8:30 pm
They do indeed, Janice – and I’m shocked that I didn’t encounter those two until I had reached my fifties.
by fiona on Jun 3, 2012 at 8:32 pm
fiona
Good pick up. First time. Am enjoying.
by Boerwar on Jun 3, 2012 at 8:32 pm
ShowsOn
Yes it is nice for Melbourne to play themselves into form for our big game against the Pies next Monday.
About as many who claim to be genuine liberals in Australian public life who aren’t reactionary fools ect…
It’s difficult to say because most such people are involved somewhere or the other in public life and therefore are tainted by being close to the political party of the day rather than their ideology.
by Gary Sparrow on Jun 3, 2012 at 8:32 pm
Slippers ex-wife having something to say
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/opinion/political-news/abbott-let-loose-the-dogs-says-slippers-exwife-20120602-1zoke.html
by middle man on Jun 3, 2012 at 8:32 pm
Boerwar @ 1890
Yes, I saw that post now you mention it.
Highly forgettable stupidity.
by bemused on Jun 3, 2012 at 8:36 pm