Seat of the week: Robertson
Roy Morgan’s effort to pull the rug from under Newspoll on Tuesday, as noted in the update to the previous post, has deprived me of my usual Friday poll thread. It us thus left to Seat of the Week to fly the flag on its lonesome. The latest instalment looks at the NSW Central Coast seat of Robertson, held for Labor by what on present indications looks to be an undefendable margin of 1.0%.
One of the happier aspects of the 2010 election for Labor was an apparent tactical win in New South Wales, where a statewide swing of 4.8% yielded the Coalition a notional gain of only four seats – half of what would have been achieved on a uniform swing. Remarkably, the four marginals Labor retained against the trend – all of which were outside Sydney – were the only four in the state which swung in Labor’s favour: Eden-Monaro (2.0% swing), Page (1.8%), Dobell (1.1%) and, most fortuitiously, Robertson, where a winning margin of just 0.1% from 2007 became 1.0% in 2010. This was despite the unceremonious departure of Labor’s accident-prone sitting member, Belinda Neal.
Robertson covers the coast about 60 kilometres north of Sydney, with the Hawkesbury River marking its southern boundary with Berowra. All but a small share of its voters live at its coastal end, which includes Labor-leaning Woy Woy, Liberal-leaning Terrigal and marginal Gosford. The remainder of the electorate covers Popran National Park, McPherson State Forest and the Mangrove Creek dam. Although technically a federation seat, it was a different beast when it was created, covering the inland rural areas of Mudgee, Singleton and Scone.
As Robertson was drawn over time into the increasingly urbanised coast, the conservatives’ hold weakened to the point where Barry Cohen was able to gain it for Labor in 1969, and to withstand the party’s disasters of 1975 and 1977. The seat drifted back slightly in the Liberals’ favour thereafter, and was held by them throughout the Howard years by Jim Lloyd, who unseated Labor’s Frank Walker with a 9.2% swing in 1996.
Robertson returned to the Labor fold in 2007 when a 7.0% swing delivered a 184-vote winning margin to their candidate Belinda Neal, wife of Right faction powerbroker and then senior state minister John Della Bosca. Neal had earlier served in the Senate from 1994 until 1998, when she quit to make a first unsuccessful run in Robertson. Once elected Neal soon made a name for herself with a peculiar parliamentary attack on a pregnant Sophie Mirabella, and an episode in which she allegedly abused staff at Gosford restaurant-nightclub Iguana Joe’s. In 2009 her husband, who had been present during the Iguana Joe’s fracas, resigned as state Health Minister after it was revealed he was having an affair with a 26-year-old woman.
Suggestions that Neal’s preselection might be in danger emerged soon after the Iguana Joe’s incident. A challenger emerged in the shape of Deborah O’Neill, an education teacher at the University of Newcastle and narrowly unsuccessful state candidate for Gosford in 2003. O’Neill won the favour of local branches and, so Peter van Onselen of The Australian reported, “NSW Labor Right powerbrokers”. The national executive allowed the decision to be determined by a normal rank-and-file ballot, in which O’Neill defeated Neal 98 votes to 67. O’Neill went on to prevail at the election against Liberal candidate Darren Jameson, a local police sergeant.
The preselected Liberal candidate for the next election is Lucy Wicks, who has contentiously been imposed on the local branches by the fiat of the party’s state executive. Barclay Crawford of the Daily Telegraph reports this occurred at the insistence of Tony Abbott, who lacked confidence in the local party organisation owing to its poor performance at the 2010 election and the recent preselection of a problematic candidate in Dobell.
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Categories: Federal Election 2013, Federal Politics 2010-
BW,
Dare I ask – your first Sayers? If so, I strongly recommend reading them in order.
They are delightful, and although OzPol Tragic may frown, I’d venture to say that in some respects Dorothy L. Sayers was the first half of the 20th century’s equivalent of Jane Austen.
by fiona on Jun 3, 2012 at 8:36 pm
middle man @ 1892
I am sure there have been previous mentions. But never in a manner that attracts as much attention.
by bemused on Jun 3, 2012 at 8:37 pm
Good article
http://www.theglobalmail.org/feature/is-this-the-worlds-most-expensive-water/257/
by Leroy on Jun 3, 2012 at 8:43 pm
bemused. surely Abbott should be out there having a go at the AFP for letting these boats reach our waters if they already knew about them….
by middle man on Jun 3, 2012 at 8:44 pm
It demonstrates what a wank Senate Estimates are.
by CTar1 on Jun 3, 2012 at 8:47 pm
bemused and Boerwar
Im sorry, you can not ping this on Abbott or the lack of support for the malaysian solution as this happened before Gillards little off shore party with whips was even dreamed up.
These deaths fall directly on the feet of Labor who started the boats again.
by rummel on Jun 3, 2012 at 8:48 pm
Confessions you are such a lovley person
by my say on Jun 3, 2012 at 8:49 pm
thats a disgusting accusation.
by middle man on Jun 3, 2012 at 8:49 pm
So the only genuine conservatives are in public life?
Espousing a view hasn’t hampered the IPA who clearly aren’t afraid to foist their own odd interpretation of libertarianism on Australians, mostly via the ABC.
by confessions on Jun 3, 2012 at 8:51 pm
middle man @ 1903
IMHO the govt shouldn’t give him a chance. They should make their immense displeasure known and announce an inquiry.
by bemused on Jun 3, 2012 at 8:53 pm
MM:
Oh yes, the same way that Abbott and his ilk had a go at the AFP over Scott Rush’s arrest in Indonesia given their prior knowledge?
by fiona on Jun 3, 2012 at 8:54 pm
fiona
The Nine Tailors was the first. What a truly great novel.
by Boerwar on Jun 3, 2012 at 8:55 pm
not sure if my post was clear but I was being facetious. as Abbott does love to trash the credibility of federal dept’s on a regular basis.
by middle man on Jun 3, 2012 at 8:58 pm
BW,
“The Nine Tailors” is definitely up there in my canon of best evers.
If “Whose Body?” is the next, however, I reiterate my suggestion of reading in order: all sorts of characters float in and out of the books, and it helps to know where they have come from.
In any event, just enjoy: beautiful writing coupled with astute social observation (I await with interest your reaction to “Murder Must Advertise”) is a joy not to be missed.
by fiona on Jun 3, 2012 at 8:59 pm
my say:
Thank you. I feel likewise.
by confessions on Jun 3, 2012 at 8:59 pm
rummel @ 1906
Delusional and offensive crap.
The only party with a serious plan to stop the boats is the ALP. The Libs and the Greens have conspired to prevent this coming about.
I don’t care which party is in government, this should be inquired into fully and accountability established.
by bemused on Jun 3, 2012 at 8:59 pm
am starting a new poll soon
What is the most common insult thrown around PB?
by gusface on Jun 3, 2012 at 9:00 pm
MM @ 1914,
I was trying to pile my irony onto your irony
by fiona on Jun 3, 2012 at 9:00 pm
The ‘who is playing who’ aspect would be interesting.
by CTar1 on Jun 3, 2012 at 9:01 pm
fiona
I should point out that I often listen to talking books and I do so at in between sleeps at night. The result is that I sometimes listen to some parts of a book half a dozen times and other parts not at all.
Talk about characters floating in and out…
by Boerwar on Jun 3, 2012 at 9:03 pm
BW,
I get the same effect listening to BBC World Service!
by fiona on Jun 3, 2012 at 9:04 pm
oh yes i see now Fiona. its late.. i have young children… sleep where are you????
by middle man on Jun 3, 2012 at 9:04 pm
When did the Libs and Greens first communicate with each other to bring this about?
by shellbell on Jun 3, 2012 at 9:04 pm
f
*laughs*
by Boerwar on Jun 3, 2012 at 9:05 pm
MM,
Melbourne.
by fiona on Jun 3, 2012 at 9:05 pm
BW,
If you want the emoticon, it’s lol with a colon on each side – no spaces, and use preview to check!
by fiona on Jun 3, 2012 at 9:07 pm
Something about cults
by shellbell on Jun 3, 2012 at 9:07 pm
fiona. i meant where is “sleep”… as in “i need it!”… hence why i missed your irony piled on top of mine.
its late i should go..
by middle man on Jun 3, 2012 at 9:08 pm
MM,
I’m v embarrassed – misread your question completely!
Young children grow up, and then the problem is to get them out of bed…
by fiona on Jun 3, 2012 at 9:08 pm
fiona
In an effort to keep pace with modern world I make various new rules for myself as I go along. Sometimes I change the rules.
One rule is not to use emoticons. They are so old-fashioned.
by Boerwar on Jun 3, 2012 at 9:11 pm
shellbell @ 1922
I haven’t a clue. Were you privy to it.
Perhaps it is a bit like the way petrol companies don’t conspire to all raise prices at the same time?
by bemused on Jun 3, 2012 at 9:11 pm
As a Kev man you should not be in a position to have forgotten the lengths the PM went to remove the Howard governments boat people policys. and low and behold the boats came flooding back again.
Now once again your going to claim the high ground and cry into sea because that nasty Abbott and the Greens refuse to help Labor fix there stuff up.
The only delusional people are Labor supporters who supported the removal of JWH policys that led to a amanda of boats, some 1 in 5 people who make the trip have died as a result. Now delusional Labor cry about having the best People plan which is great since you need it after removing the Howard Governments…. This would be funny if you guys did not truly believe you are better then JWH. I have news for you, Labor is worse than JWH as the number of men, woman and children who have been locked up since Labor took office speek for them self.
by rummel on Jun 3, 2012 at 9:13 pm
6.95 for thommo + ALP
21 for Thommo only
7 For Thommo + Indies
1 for I WANT MY MUMMY
1 for Aliens abducted me
2 for 6.5 stars bisons
1 for machiavelli
********************************************
a few conclusions
if anything there are only a few labor hacks on here
the majority believe thommo acted alone
a significant % felt there may have been other indies involved
the #fib identified posters (with the honourable exception of davidwh) couldnt deal with the idea
Someone is way lateral
All up a ringing endorsement for thommo being seen as a man alone
Nb NOT ONE POSTER EVEN DARED TO TRY THE THOMMO+ MEDIA meme (even the #fibs didnt swallow it)
I thank you for your input
1 for machiavelli
by gusface on Jun 3, 2012 at 9:14 pm
shellbell
In the year or so I spent on Bludger trying to persuade the Labortariat that Mr Rudd was deliberately destabilising a Labor Government with a view to retaking the prime ministership, I earned quite a few fulsome rebukes.
But I have forgotten the wording of them all.
by Boerwar on Jun 3, 2012 at 9:14 pm
Sky news are full on QEII jubilee stuff.
Republic Now.
by confessions on Jun 3, 2012 at 9:14 pm
shell
sometimes you can be one
by gusface on Jun 3, 2012 at 9:14 pm
rummel @ 1931
Howard’s policy involved shipping them off to Nauru AFTER they had made the voyage.
Arrivals at CI tend to track refugee movements elsewhere, a strong indication of push factors at work.
by bemused on Jun 3, 2012 at 9:17 pm
i fail to understand how anyone purporting to believe in democracy can stomach a monarchy. they are diametrically opposed.
australians again prove they lack the courage to go out on their own whether it be on personal level or social level… better the hid behind history and continue to be subjugated… its no wonder we don’t think it odd that the original occupants of this land were subjugated. its so normal for us!
by middle man on Jun 3, 2012 at 9:22 pm
“better to hide” i meant
by middle man on Jun 3, 2012 at 9:23 pm
Shouldn’t someone ask Gillard what would happen to a gay couple of refugees if she swapped them to Malaysia?
by Compact Crank on Jun 3, 2012 at 9:23 pm
It is no point trying to disabuse Rummel of his favourite Lib meme.
It is his old blankey which he clings to all the time. It is grubby, full of holes and been vomited on more than a few times but Rummey clutches the smelly old thing to his breast and resists all attempts by the grown-ups to take it from him. Without it, the real world is just way too scary.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jun 3, 2012 at 9:24 pm
WITH THE SUPPORT OF THE OPPOSITION!!!!
The Coalition is now criticising reforms that it didn’t even vote against in the parliament! They are complete hypocrites on this issue.
by ShowsOn on Jun 3, 2012 at 9:24 pm
cc
r is a much better fisher than you are. His lures are more sophisticated.
by Boerwar on Jun 3, 2012 at 9:24 pm
Gus,
I nominate “twiddlepoop”.
It probably hasn’t been used on PB, but that’s discrimination for you.
by fiona on Jun 3, 2012 at 9:25 pm
hi compact crank
why so knickersinaknottish?
by gusface on Jun 3, 2012 at 9:25 pm
Middle Man,
I am watching some vessels go past. I like watching boats. Why they are going past is of lesser importance to me.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jun 3, 2012 at 9:26 pm
Boerwar, from ages back,
First, it must be smoked in a suitable container using wood chips for about three days, along with some aged carp heads. It never hurts to throw in a couple of eels, adds to flavour. Drain. Retain liquor. Could be useful.
If you require a cheffie touch, add two sprigs of flat-leaf parsley. Enjoy.
+++
Goodnight, Bludgers.
It’s my expectation that the sun will arise tomorrow. And PB will not be toxic.
by Scringler on Jun 3, 2012 at 9:26 pm
@1937 middleman – your comment would suggest that you believe Constitutional monarchy is not an effective form of democracy. I suggest that the evidence is against you on that front.
by Compact Crank on Jun 3, 2012 at 9:27 pm
MM
But the Sky commentary is damn appalling.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jun 3, 2012 at 9:28 pm
gusface
Is that Machiavelli as in Machiavelli and the Four Seasons ?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JSxiECdnXq0
by poroti on Jun 3, 2012 at 9:28 pm