Seat of the week: Robertson
Roy Morgan’s effort to pull the rug from under Newspoll on Tuesday, as noted in the update to the previous post, has deprived me of my usual Friday poll thread. It us thus left to Seat of the Week to fly the flag on its lonesome. The latest instalment looks at the NSW Central Coast seat of Robertson, held for Labor by what on present indications looks to be an undefendable margin of 1.0%.
One of the happier aspects of the 2010 election for Labor was an apparent tactical win in New South Wales, where a statewide swing of 4.8% yielded the Coalition a notional gain of only four seats – half of what would have been achieved on a uniform swing. Remarkably, the four marginals Labor retained against the trend – all of which were outside Sydney – were the only four in the state which swung in Labor’s favour: Eden-Monaro (2.0% swing), Page (1.8%), Dobell (1.1%) and, most fortuitiously, Robertson, where a winning margin of just 0.1% from 2007 became 1.0% in 2010. This was despite the unceremonious departure of Labor’s accident-prone sitting member, Belinda Neal.
Robertson covers the coast about 60 kilometres north of Sydney, with the Hawkesbury River marking its southern boundary with Berowra. All but a small share of its voters live at its coastal end, which includes Labor-leaning Woy Woy, Liberal-leaning Terrigal and marginal Gosford. The remainder of the electorate covers Popran National Park, McPherson State Forest and the Mangrove Creek dam. Although technically a federation seat, it was a different beast when it was created, covering the inland rural areas of Mudgee, Singleton and Scone.
As Robertson was drawn over time into the increasingly urbanised coast, the conservatives’ hold weakened to the point where Barry Cohen was able to gain it for Labor in 1969, and to withstand the party’s disasters of 1975 and 1977. The seat drifted back slightly in the Liberals’ favour thereafter, and was held by them throughout the Howard years by Jim Lloyd, who unseated Labor’s Frank Walker with a 9.2% swing in 1996.
Robertson returned to the Labor fold in 2007 when a 7.0% swing delivered a 184-vote winning margin to their candidate Belinda Neal, wife of Right faction powerbroker and then senior state minister John Della Bosca. Neal had earlier served in the Senate from 1994 until 1998, when she quit to make a first unsuccessful run in Robertson. Once elected Neal soon made a name for herself with a peculiar parliamentary attack on a pregnant Sophie Mirabella, and an episode in which she allegedly abused staff at Gosford restaurant-nightclub Iguana Joe’s. In 2009 her husband, who had been present during the Iguana Joe’s fracas, resigned as state Health Minister after it was revealed he was having an affair with a 26-year-old woman.
Suggestions that Neal’s preselection might be in danger emerged soon after the Iguana Joe’s incident. A challenger emerged in the shape of Deborah O’Neill, an education teacher at the University of Newcastle and narrowly unsuccessful state candidate for Gosford in 2003. O’Neill won the favour of local branches and, so Peter van Onselen of The Australian reported, “NSW Labor Right powerbrokers”. The national executive allowed the decision to be determined by a normal rank-and-file ballot, in which O’Neill defeated Neal 98 votes to 67. O’Neill went on to prevail at the election against Liberal candidate Darren Jameson, a local police sergeant.
The preselected Liberal candidate for the next election is Lucy Wicks, who has contentiously been imposed on the local branches by the fiat of the party’s state executive. Barclay Crawford of the Daily Telegraph reports this occurred at the insistence of Tony Abbott, who lacked confidence in the local party organisation owing to its poor performance at the 2010 election and the recent preselection of a problematic candidate in Dobell.
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Categories: Federal Election 2013, Federal Politics 2010-
LSL
You are right, but take my advice and don’t let the bullies get to you.
They lash out because they are afraid, and they do indeed have much to fear given where the ALP is and their current trajectory.
Just enjoy it and don’t let them get to you!
by Mod Lib on Jun 3, 2012 at 10:56 pm
mod fib
that alien really treated you bad
by gusface on Jun 3, 2012 at 10:57 pm
LSL
Seems you do not have an iPad,which is a bummer at correctional spelling,not as easy as a PC.
by Schnappi on Jun 3, 2012 at 10:57 pm
LSL
are you one of the 400 about to be “boned” by Kim Williams? Pink slips being printed as we speak.
by sprocket_ on Jun 3, 2012 at 11:00 pm
Those Thames boats have been tiddied up to within an inch of their gunnels.
by Boerwar on Jun 3, 2012 at 11:01 pm
The Irish Presidency shows it can be done. They elect them, but the role is constrained & ceremonial enough that the fact parties run candidates doesn’t matter in terms of conflicting with the govt of the day. The fact that a westminster style system can do this quite comfortably is a good demonstration of why most of the arguments against going to a republic, even with an elected President, don’t hold up.
I’ve thought for ages we should just rip off bits of the Irish Constitution, and then sell it as a proven model.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/President_of_Ireland
by Leroy on Jun 3, 2012 at 11:01 pm
Poll 2 Party Preferred: ALP 43 (+1) L/NP 57 (-1) #auspol
by rummel on Jun 3, 2012 at 11:02 pm
sprock, schnappi
LSL is just jealous of my say
LSL wishes he had a heart
by gusface on Jun 3, 2012 at 11:02 pm
GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes
#Nielsen Poll Primary Votes: ALP 26 (-2) L/NP 48 (-1) #auspol
by rummel on Jun 3, 2012 at 11:02 pm
The British Navy has a surfeit of admirals – around one for each major surface ship.
by Boerwar on Jun 3, 2012 at 11:03 pm
GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes
#Nielsen Poll Preferred PM: Gillard 44 (+2) Abbott 46 (-4) #auspol
by rummel on Jun 3, 2012 at 11:03 pm
Hi gusface. You remind me of a bit by the late comedian Bill Hicks. Were you a fan? When I was a teenager I thought he was a god.
sprocket_ I am not a journalist, but if I was I can assure you that I would be indispensable to any organisation I worked for.
by Leisure Suit Larry on Jun 3, 2012 at 11:04 pm
lol
GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes
#Nielsen Poll Preferred PM (Rudd/Abbott): Rudd 59 Abbott 37 #auspol
by rummel on Jun 3, 2012 at 11:04 pm
HAHHAHAHAHAHH FUNNIEST SHIT EVER!
by ShowsOn on Jun 3, 2012 at 11:06 pm
WOW!
Now that is a shocking poll for caucus if ever I saw one.
by Mod Lib on Jun 3, 2012 at 11:06 pm
I vote that Leisure Suit Larry be banned for this stupid and ridiculous comparison.
by ShowsOn on Jun 3, 2012 at 11:07 pm
listen LSL
lay off my say
she is perhaps the most honest poster on PB
disagree with her, but dont disparage her
by gusface on Jun 3, 2012 at 11:07 pm
6 point turnaround on preferred PM
Libs must be really getting worried with Abbott’s standing
by sprocket_ on Jun 3, 2012 at 11:07 pm
There were similar polls before the Feb leadership ballot but that didn’t stop the caucus from ignoring them.
by ShowsOn on Jun 3, 2012 at 11:07 pm
Good decision in Feb guys!
If you hadnt done that we Libs might have actually been in some serious strife.
Judging by the conversation at the event I was at today, and the polling, this is going to be a very sweet time for us over the next few years.
Hehe
by Mod Lib on Jun 3, 2012 at 11:07 pm
your dealer came through?
by gusface on Jun 3, 2012 at 11:08 pm
Odd that the ALP Primary down when it was up for Newspoll & Essential. Seem to be in a state of flux at the moment. As I said last year though, can’t be much improvement in the ALP rating until late this year.
by Leroy on Jun 3, 2012 at 11:08 pm
Im shit scared of Keven coming back.
by rummel on Jun 3, 2012 at 11:08 pm
Every day when I wake up, I thank the ALP caucus for its attitude of being smarter than everyone else in the room!
Gillard exudes a patronising arrogant attitude every time she opens her mouth, and the public still despise her and the ALP is now snookered into a corner after its behaviour in Feb.
The gift that keeps on giving eh!
by Mod Lib on Jun 3, 2012 at 11:09 pm
I should make clear that I was referring to a specific routine (NSFW) by Bill Hicks .I was in no way comparing gusface’s comedic abilities to those of the late great Bill Hicks! Good grief no.
by Leisure Suit Larry on Jun 3, 2012 at 11:10 pm
Polls seem different enough at the moment seems worth revisiting this article.
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/2011/11/08/how-australian-pollsters-lean/
by Leroy on Jun 3, 2012 at 11:11 pm
r
If Labor primary and Coalition primary headed south, did the Greens pick up the difference or did Others get them?
by Boerwar on Jun 3, 2012 at 11:11 pm
So let me get this straight:
The voter prefers Rudd to Abbott getting up towards 2 to 1,
BUT
They prefer Abbott to Gillard even after his childish running around this week.
LOL
Do the ALP bloggers here still think they are on a winner with Gillard?
by Mod Lib on Jun 3, 2012 at 11:11 pm
Well compared to saint Keven, Julia and Abbott are like two turds in a pot.
by rummel on Jun 3, 2012 at 11:12 pm
it had been polled to death before the Feb vote.
what do you do if Gillard keeps on improving and the ALP has two options that are more preferred than your top guy?
by middle man on Jun 3, 2012 at 11:12 pm
Well, not really mate. Labor still has between now and and a week or so before the election is called to correct its mistake.
If this, hopefully, occurs, then that would leave the Coalition stuck with Abbott as its leader who wouldn’t be able to win an election against Rudd.
by ShowsOn on Jun 3, 2012 at 11:13 pm
For a particular set of males, I suspect that that’s how they would see Prime Minister Gillard any time anywhere.
Their problem, and not one that the Prime Minister can fix.
by fiona on Jun 3, 2012 at 11:13 pm
LSL
thank god for that
hicks was an amateur
by gusface on Jun 3, 2012 at 11:13 pm
26 Primary Vote!
Please don’t say media conspiracy. It’s way too far gone and I suggest you look at the Rudd/Abbott preferred PM rating
by spur212 on Jun 3, 2012 at 11:13 pm
Boerwar – it would mean they’ve gone to “others”, which I suspect is some peoples way of not actually making a decision on the spot on the phone. Indies & small parties votes not likely to be that high in reality.
by Leroy on Jun 3, 2012 at 11:14 pm
It doesn’t matter who leads the ALP, they will still trounce Abbott, which is a very nice position for the Government.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jun 3, 2012 at 11:14 pm
If it looks like that we dump him and get an even bigger win.
Win win…..thats why I think this is so great.
We are setting the circumstances for absolute yonks in power, and the ALP are so stubborn they think they no better, they want to plough on ahead with the same loser!
It is just too good to be true sometimes.
by Mod Lib on Jun 3, 2012 at 11:14 pm
exactly shows on. it just means the ALP have a joker up their sleeve at all times. could pull a Hawkie.
by middle man on Jun 3, 2012 at 11:15 pm
Interesting that you assume it is men who think this. At the event I was at it was the females who were the most unforgiving of Gillard actually.
But I guess that is sexism as well and nothing to do with Gillard having the worst political instincts of any leader in living memory…
by Mod Lib on Jun 3, 2012 at 11:15 pm
sprock
bit too sonn too reach for the smelling salts
btw
do you really think the 26 is
a accurate
b immutable
by gusface on Jun 3, 2012 at 11:16 pm
Mod,
I don’t know why you’re getting all worked up. It’s actually a pretty good result for the Coalition.
by Jake on Jun 3, 2012 at 11:16 pm
Chinese economy…and falling growth rates
___________
A US site recently said that any fall in growth rates below 7% would signal trouble at home for the Chinese Govt…a rise in unemployment would have serious domestic results
So there will be stimulus spending in a big way by the Govt to avert internal troubles
Already they have made $300 billion Dollars worth of stimilus available..much on housing and infrastructure
Lacking any social welfare system…work is the only way people can survive
The Chinese Govt is mindful of the protest movement 20 years ago and the Tien Nn Minh protests..and the events that followed
Such events would be very bad for Oz too…
by deblonay on Jun 3, 2012 at 11:16 pm
Thankfully Labor caucus is more so bahaaaaaaaaa. Never happen thank god.
by rummel on Jun 3, 2012 at 11:17 pm
This is what I mean!
Like the knight with all his arms and legs cut off pretending to be in a strong position.
STEAM ON AHEAD, DONT CHANGE ANYTHING PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE!
Bring it on, baby, bring it on…
by Mod Lib on Jun 3, 2012 at 11:17 pm
By now the chances are Rudd’s name would have been shit. The MSM and the opposition would see to that.
by Gary on Jun 3, 2012 at 11:17 pm
ML:
If that’s what you really believe, then I hope for your own and your family’s sake that you are in the absolute top echelon, because if you’re not you will be as screwed as everyone else not in that top 1% will be under an Abbott-lead (delib spelling) coalition government.
by fiona on Jun 3, 2012 at 11:17 pm
MM
Could put him in the unused Chaff Bag.
by Schnappi on Jun 3, 2012 at 11:17 pm
cheering favourable polls is all you have when your team is in opposition… enjoy yourselves.
by middle man on Jun 3, 2012 at 11:18 pm
Interesting that both the two latest NewsPolls are out of step with all the other polling. Forget the preferred PM polling the really telling result from Nielsen is the Labor primary vote. It is honestly hard to believe.
by davidwh on Jun 3, 2012 at 11:18 pm
A change to Rudd could work igf Gillard walked away just before the election. Other than that it would fail IMHO.
by Gary on Jun 3, 2012 at 11:19 pm