Seat of the week: La Trobe
This week’s better-late-than-never installment of Seat of the Week brings us to La Trobe, one of two crucial gains for Labor in Victoria at the 2010 election which helped redressed losses in New South Wales and especially Queensland. The defeated Liberal member, Jason Wood, will attempt to recover the seat from Labor’s Laura Smyth at the next election after winning a preselection ballot earlier this week.
La Trobe has covered Melbourne’s eastern fringe since its creation with the enlargement of parliament in 1949, drifting south-eastwards over time from its starting point of Dandenong and Croydon. It now consists of two rapidly growing outer Melbourne areas separated by the Dandenong Ranges – Boronia and Ferntree Gully in the north, and the Berwick area in the south – and extends eastwards through Belgrave to Emerald, Cockatoo and Gembrook. Labor’s strength around Belgrave is countered by Liberal dominance around Berwick. The redistribution that will take effect at the next election has effected a swap of about 16,000 voters around Bayswater, who have been transferred to Aston, for a similar number in Narre Warren, who were previously in Holt. Another 3000 voters around Pakenham have been transferred to McMillan. Antony Green calculates that the changes have boosted Labor’s margin from 0.9% to 1.7%.
Along with other seats in Melbourne’s outer suburban “sandbelt”, La Trobe played a decisive role in the election of the Whitlam government in 1972, falling to Labor for the first time with a 10.2% swing. It swung almost as heavily the other way when the Liberals recovered it in 1975, but returned to the Labor fold in 1980 when Peter Milton defeated Liberal member Marshall Baillieu (part of the clan that includes the current Premier). An unfavourable redistribution in 1990 combined with the statewide anti-Labor tsunami at that year’s election to deliver a 1.4% victory to Liberal candidate Bob Charles. The seat had a remarkably stable time of it on Charles’s watch, staying with the Liberals by 2.4% in 1993, 1.4% in 1996, 1.0% in 1998 and 3.7% in 2001.
With Charles’s retirement at the 2004 election, La Trobe emerged as a contest between Liberal candidate Jason Wood, a police officer who had worked in counter-terrorism and organised crime units, and Labor’s Susan Davies, who held the since-abolished state seat of Gippsland West as an independent from 1997 to 2002. The result was an easy win for Wood, who overcame the loss of Charles’s personal vote to pick up a 2.1% swing that was concentrated in the heavily mortgaged suburbs nearer the city. Wood had won preselection with the backing of the Kennett faction after cutting his teeth as candidate for Holt in 2001. It was noted at the time he had “been a member of Greenpeace for longer than he has been a member of the Liberal Party”, and he went on to embarrass his party ahead of the 2007 election by issuing a brochure that failed to sing from its song sheet on nuclear power.
Wood went into the 2007 election with a 5.8% margin, of which only 0.5% was left after a swing that was most conspicuous in the areas that had moved to the Liberals in 2004. He was promoted to parliamentary secretary for justice and public security when Malcolm Turnbull assumed the Liberal leadership in September 2008, despite the embarrassment he had recently suffered after stammering his way through a parliamentary speech on genetically modified organisms (which repeatedly came out as “orgasms”). The 1.4% swing that unseated him at the 2010 election was fairly typical for Victoria, which collectively swung to Labor by 1.0%. The successful Labor candidate was Laura Smyth, a lawyer for Holding Redlich whom VexNews linked to the “Andrew Giles/Alan Griffin sub-faction of the Socialist Left”.
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Categories: Federal Election 2013, Federal Politics 2010-
My say,
I took part in an online poll long time ago, like dialup was about it for the net. Got a $50 book voucher for doing it. Did another long poll for them, got nothing for it, didn’t do anymore, so boring.
When I studied marketing I learned a questionaire can be up to 17 pages, longer and people stop filling them out. When I did a survey as part of that course the q’aire was 17 pages—I asked the questions and wrote down the answers. Got through all 17 pages with everyone tho quite a few were flagging. That is with me chatting with them etc but online I bet the limit is more like 7 pages, tops
by political animal on Jun 10, 2012 at 2:49 pm
Centre,
Not sure I agree completely. Macklin is a waste of perfectly good Dorothy Dixers in QT I reckon. She may be competent and well meaning (or not – I really have no idea), but I bet the Opposition feels much better every time she steps up to speak. Like being mauled by a sheep.
Bradbury does very little for me either. He always looks like he’s going through well rehearsed lines. Leigh should have his job.
Emerson is good value now he’s taken the gloves off. Combet as I’ve mentioned, and Roxon are good. I think O’Connor has been a big plus in Small Business, Albo is great, Conroy also now he’s not talking about stupid filters, and Wong.
Others like Plibersek are hardly challenged as they have complete dolts like Dutton shadowing them, but aren’t really scoring big goals for the government either.
by ratsak on Jun 10, 2012 at 2:50 pm
I also liked the Combet interview, though I must say my respect for PvO has somewhat grown with his explicit spiking of the “Juliar” meme and recognition that the government is not introducing a carbon tax.
by Fran Barlow on Jun 10, 2012 at 2:50 pm
my say@996, I have decided to take up knitting again, in solidarity. I am hugely entertained by the thought of the PM calmly knitting while she runs the country.
by susan winstanley on Jun 10, 2012 at 2:52 pm
connie, yes, a Sunday before a long weekend – for a very late celebration of Queenies happy birthday.
When are we going to become a republic
by Centre on Jun 10, 2012 at 2:53 pm
Recession curtails the search for alien life. Tinfoil hatters outraged!
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/science/space/9321846/Search-for-alien-life-hit-by-the-recession.html
by Greensborough Growler on Jun 10, 2012 at 2:53 pm
GG @ 998
Rudd doesn’t need supporters.
If the polls continue as they are for another few months, he will be re-installed as leader.
Caucus may not like him, but he pulls votes and political parties need votes to win elections.
by bemused on Jun 10, 2012 at 2:53 pm
Ratsak, you are hard to please.
Name one with the exception of Turnbull from the opposition who could get on the Labor front bench?
by Centre on Jun 10, 2012 at 2:56 pm
susan,
Rummel earlier ridiculed the notion of Gillard knitting as being nothing more than a stunt. However, I actually believe it is a secret women’s way of communicating with other women. Men seem to have their sheds and the pub. Women have pearling and casting off.
My sixteen year old daughter recently took up knitting and was quite chuffed when she found out the PM does it too.
by Greensborough Growler on Jun 10, 2012 at 2:57 pm
I also enjoyed the Combet interview. He handled himself well as usual though my opinion of PvO likewise lifted somewhat when he spiked the “Juliar” meme by noting that she had promised a carbon price and that this was not a carbon tax.
That puts him ahead of pretty much every other MCBM talking head on this issue.
by Fran Barlow on Jun 10, 2012 at 2:58 pm
It’s looking less likely each year.
by confessions on Jun 10, 2012 at 3:02 pm
Care to make a bet on that Bemused?
Put your money where your mouth is I dare you – otherwise…ZIP…
by Centre on Jun 10, 2012 at 3:02 pm
Centre,
It’s going to be a truly awesome Ministry – with Bishop,Bishop,Pyne,Morrison,Robb,Truss ( as Deputy PM)Dutton,Mirrabella,Abetz. The list goes on. It will be of a quality previously unseen.
by al palster on Jun 10, 2012 at 3:03 pm
Do you know how the ALP is going to win this election?
“Layba valews maaaaate!”
…
Sums up most of the problem
by spur212 on Jun 10, 2012 at 3:05 pm
The point I’m trying to make here about G Combet is of very little significance when measured against his talents.
However, with regards to his swallowing difficulties causing a frequent need to apologise, maybe he should fix his teeth to begin with and then also have his breathing checked.
by gigi on Jun 10, 2012 at 3:06 pm
The Dragon & The Bear are warming up to each other again, with the Eagle’s wing clipped. What will the Elephant do? – http://www.worldcrunch.com/why-putin-betting-china/5594
by The Finnigans on Jun 10, 2012 at 3:06 pm
GG 1008
When I had my homebrew shop and was doing a course I tried to tell my students that they should be as good at their craft as their mothers were at knitting: they could watch TV, talk to Dad and have an eye on the kids and never drop a stitch or do wrong stitches. I told my students they should be on top of their craft, keeping an eye on volume, temperature and pH of mash liquor etc just like their Mums’ counted stitches. Not sure if I made my point.
by political animal on Jun 10, 2012 at 3:06 pm
centre @ 1011
If you want to bet there are some lovely sites such as CentreBet who will be happy to take your money.
I am here to comment and learn from others.
I was unaware William had appointed you as Site Censor.
by bemused on Jun 10, 2012 at 3:07 pm
GG@1008, yes, its what many women do to keep their hands occupied while the mind wanders free…
And contrary to rummel’s juvenile comment, Gillard is not pulling any stunt.
You cannot just pick up a couple of needles and start casting on and purling at will. It takes some years to learn how to knit complicated patterns. And if Gillard is knitting baby clothes, she knows all the moves and then some. I still cannot knit socks.
by susan winstanley on Jun 10, 2012 at 3:07 pm
What we do know about polls is that they can swing very quickly and by a substantial amount with any momentum.
I think the Gillar/Labor government is doing well, are getting on top with plenty of time in reserve and are on track to win in 2013.
by Centre on Jun 10, 2012 at 3:09 pm
I love to knit teddy bears for the grandkids.
by davidwh on Jun 10, 2012 at 3:11 pm
Greensborough Growler
Back in your box. The SETI project has nothing to do with tinfoilers. Check out what is really about.
by poroti on Jun 10, 2012 at 3:11 pm
bemused
Had the same thought myself!
by MTBW on Jun 10, 2012 at 3:12 pm
Centre,
There’s no question that the opposition front bench is horrendous, but that being the case the government should be putting many more hits on them. I think that people like Kelly and Leigh on the back bench offer more than some of the ministers. No doubt they’ll have to wait longer, but there’s room for improvement on the front bench.
by ratsak on Jun 10, 2012 at 3:12 pm
Bemused, I am not a site censor.
Don’t make comments with claims of certainty.
The only possible party Rudd will ever lead again is if he organises something on some special occassion
by Centre on Jun 10, 2012 at 3:12 pm
susan,
Howard had “dogwhistling”. Gillard can have “knitting patterns”.
by Greensborough Growler on Jun 10, 2012 at 3:13 pm
One more story about knitting—its funny so sorry for OT William.
On the ship coming here from Holland the Fremantle–Melbourne stretch had the ship in the trough of the waves. All the movable furniture was removed from the lounge and us kids (this was ’57!) had great fun sliding from one side of the lounge to the other. What really sticks in my mind was the fixed couches along the walls of the lounge full of women knitting. None of them dropped a single stitch! And the movement of the ship was lively, it wasn’t the QEII we were on!
by political animal on Jun 10, 2012 at 3:14 pm
The Finnigans
The SCO. Our future overlords.
by poroti on Jun 10, 2012 at 3:14 pm
Centre
You mean like your comment above?
by MTBW on Jun 10, 2012 at 3:15 pm
Greensborough Growler
I know which I’d prefer a PM to have.
by poroti on Jun 10, 2012 at 3:16 pm
poroti:
Are you able to tell me how windy it is in Perth at the moment?
by confessions on Jun 10, 2012 at 3:16 pm
poroti,
What a scam. 50 years and the only intelligent life they find is us humans.
by Greensborough Growler on Jun 10, 2012 at 3:17 pm
It’s kind of wet, cold and miserable in paradise today.
Can’t really get a feel for the polling. Labor have had a good run although a couple of issues offsets this including the Four Corners program and the confirmation of how much Thomson was subsidized by NSW Labor. The Coalition response to better than expected economic news was hopeless. Not sure where people will put their emphasis assuming they were paying much attention.
Labor are due for another bounce however polls often don’t do what’s expected.
by davidwh on Jun 10, 2012 at 3:17 pm
I was chuffed when I learnt that the PM loves knitting. It’s not a stunt, it takes skill to master complicated patterns.
If you want to see stunt knitting take a look at any movie that features someone allegedly ‘knitting’. Usually the actress involved has no idea. They shove a whopping great needle into a random space, put the stuff down to wind the yarn around the needle and then pray that the camera will move away before they are supposed to finish a stitch. Very few ‘stars’ have the ability to even pretend to knit.
by leone on Jun 10, 2012 at 3:20 pm
Re Waverers
________
I actually think the tem “waverers ” is a good descriptions of waverers.!!
..as for calling them bed-wetters I don’t quite get the point !
I can undertand that the term will appeal to those with a taste for the scatalogical phrase like GG and some others…but it still seems like poor use of English to me
………..
by deblonay on Jun 10, 2012 at 3:21 pm
Have the Liberals revealled how much they stumped up for Mary-Jo’s court appearance yet?
by confessions on Jun 10, 2012 at 3:21 pm
My mum is an excellent knitter and passed on her skill to me. Mind you lots of people think males who knit are missing some of those male hormones.
by davidwh on Jun 10, 2012 at 3:23 pm
Again, for those wondering, Newspoll is now released fortnightly on Mondays at 11pm AEST on Sky News via Troy Bramston in order to counter the impact of GhostWhoVotes.
It also appears that Peter van Onselen will be wearing a chicken suit being a complete moron on twitter about a couple of hours before the result is revealed …
In short, forget Sunday’s for Newspoll
by spur212 on Jun 10, 2012 at 3:23 pm
Greensborough Growler
As Ponty Mython’s song said.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TvD4N70V5mE
by poroti on Jun 10, 2012 at 3:23 pm
Confessions I’m don’t think people get as excited about someone caught shoplifting as they do about politicians involved in sex scandals.
by davidwh on Jun 10, 2012 at 3:25 pm
spur212:
I don’t get the chicken suit reference, however completely understand the bit about being a moron on twitter.
by confessions on Jun 10, 2012 at 3:25 pm
deblonay,
Scatologically speaking, when it comes to your pathetic jottings, calling bullshit is the most appropriate terminology.
by Greensborough Growler on Jun 10, 2012 at 3:25 pm
poroti,
Ponty was very wise.
by Greensborough Growler on Jun 10, 2012 at 3:27 pm
http://www.smh.com.au/business/stocks-to-jump-on-spanish-banks-bailout-20120610-203sp.html
by MTBW on Jun 10, 2012 at 3:28 pm
davidwh:
If the issue is a party providing assistance to one of its MPs, then the only thing that really matters is whether the individual is guilty or not.
If it’s fair enough for Labor to reveal how much it assisted Thomson, then the Liberals need to show the same transparency in relation to Fisher.
by confessions on Jun 10, 2012 at 3:28 pm
I hope Mr Jay has lots of fun with Mr Cameron at Leveson on Thursday.
It appears that Mr Cameron has won the toss and will be batting on a sticky wicket.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/leveson-inquiry/9320887/David-Cameron-faces-his-moment-of-truth-at-the-Leveson-Inquiry.html
by Gaffhook on Jun 10, 2012 at 3:28 pm
Greensborough Growler
He was.Also you can sign up to get chunks of radio telescope transmissions to analyse. Set up as a screen saver or a background program. The host University is Berkley.
http://setiathome.berkeley.edu/
by poroti on Jun 10, 2012 at 3:30 pm
I think Labor’s polling may improve over the coming summer months if El Nino can get a move on and actually start this global warming.
Any of the Greenies here have any idea on how El Nino is tracking and if he can bring some scorching hot weather with him by then
by Centre on Jun 10, 2012 at 3:31 pm
poroti,
Do you get a custom designed tin foil hat if you sign up?
by Greensborough Growler on Jun 10, 2012 at 3:32 pm
Confessions I wasn’t referring to reality or fairness just how issues are perceived in the wider community. I doubt too many people see equity between what Mary Jo was charged with and the allegations in relation to Thomson.
by davidwh on Jun 10, 2012 at 3:32 pm