Seat of the week: La Trobe
This week’s better-late-than-never installment of Seat of the Week brings us to La Trobe, one of two crucial gains for Labor in Victoria at the 2010 election which helped redressed losses in New South Wales and especially Queensland. The defeated Liberal member, Jason Wood, will attempt to recover the seat from Labor’s Laura Smyth at the next election after winning a preselection ballot earlier this week.
La Trobe has covered Melbourne’s eastern fringe since its creation with the enlargement of parliament in 1949, drifting south-eastwards over time from its starting point of Dandenong and Croydon. It now consists of two rapidly growing outer Melbourne areas separated by the Dandenong Ranges – Boronia and Ferntree Gully in the north, and the Berwick area in the south – and extends eastwards through Belgrave to Emerald, Cockatoo and Gembrook. Labor’s strength around Belgrave is countered by Liberal dominance around Berwick. The redistribution that will take effect at the next election has effected a swap of about 16,000 voters around Bayswater, who have been transferred to Aston, for a similar number in Narre Warren, who were previously in Holt. Another 3000 voters around Pakenham have been transferred to McMillan. Antony Green calculates that the changes have boosted Labor’s margin from 0.9% to 1.7%.
Along with other seats in Melbourne’s outer suburban “sandbelt”, La Trobe played a decisive role in the election of the Whitlam government in 1972, falling to Labor for the first time with a 10.2% swing. It swung almost as heavily the other way when the Liberals recovered it in 1975, but returned to the Labor fold in 1980 when Peter Milton defeated Liberal member Marshall Baillieu (part of the clan that includes the current Premier). An unfavourable redistribution in 1990 combined with the statewide anti-Labor tsunami at that year’s election to deliver a 1.4% victory to Liberal candidate Bob Charles. The seat had a remarkably stable time of it on Charles’s watch, staying with the Liberals by 2.4% in 1993, 1.4% in 1996, 1.0% in 1998 and 3.7% in 2001.
With Charles’s retirement at the 2004 election, La Trobe emerged as a contest between Liberal candidate Jason Wood, a police officer who had worked in counter-terrorism and organised crime units, and Labor’s Susan Davies, who held the since-abolished state seat of Gippsland West as an independent from 1997 to 2002. The result was an easy win for Wood, who overcame the loss of Charles’s personal vote to pick up a 2.1% swing that was concentrated in the heavily mortgaged suburbs nearer the city. Wood had won preselection with the backing of the Kennett faction after cutting his teeth as candidate for Holt in 2001. It was noted at the time he had “been a member of Greenpeace for longer than he has been a member of the Liberal Party”, and he went on to embarrass his party ahead of the 2007 election by issuing a brochure that failed to sing from its song sheet on nuclear power.
Wood went into the 2007 election with a 5.8% margin, of which only 0.5% was left after a swing that was most conspicuous in the areas that had moved to the Liberals in 2004. He was promoted to parliamentary secretary for justice and public security when Malcolm Turnbull assumed the Liberal leadership in September 2008, despite the embarrassment he had recently suffered after stammering his way through a parliamentary speech on genetically modified organisms (which repeatedly came out as “orgasms”). The 1.4% swing that unseated him at the 2010 election was fairly typical for Victoria, which collectively swung to Labor by 1.0%. The successful Labor candidate was Laura Smyth, a lawyer for Holding Redlich whom VexNews linked to the “Andrew Giles/Alan Griffin sub-faction of the Socialist Left”.
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Categories: Federal Election 2013, Federal Politics 2010-
Re Joe6pack….and “Thanks for the civilized discussion”
>>>>
GG must have gone off for the night !
“
by deblonay on Jun 10, 2012 at 11:29 pm
You know what the interesting thing is that happened wrt refugees today? Channel 7 produced a sympathetic piece on Weekend Sunrise about them and Adam Boland said he felt good about himself for doing so.
by C@tmomma on Jun 10, 2012 at 11:31 pm
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/frances-left-eyes-control-in-parliamentary-vote/article4245473/
by Leroy on Jun 10, 2012 at 11:32 pm
Gareth Evans made an A.C.
Gareth as GG!
Madness!
by CTar1 on Jun 10, 2012 at 11:32 pm
by confessions on Jun 10, 2012 at 11:33 pm
Nite joe
I will add that I don’t think that any cultural or racial group has a special exemption from having sociopaths who volunteer to do such work.
I know we need to guard against the mob mentality that can take hold and allow monstrous crimes to happen but it is also empowering to know that we have more good than bad amongst us-even in the worst of times.
I deplore the way we are raising our young to think that we are naturally murderous beasts. It is no accident that they use video games to teach soldiers how to kill with no compassion. Interesting that those same soldiers still suffer severe psychological trauma just the same. The hard wiring to protect and nurture is part of our survival.
by Gweneth on Jun 10, 2012 at 11:38 pm
I suspect Newspoll will reflect the status quo, the REAL status quo, something like 56-44.
by Thornleigh Labor Man on Jun 10, 2012 at 11:39 pm
Puff,
I think I watched the same program. Domestically the fear of the Gestapo kept people in check, there was only around 1 Gestapo agent for every 1000 people (it may have been less, perhaps one for every 5/10k Germans). The Gestapo relied on Germans telling on other Germans. It seems at the end of the day humans can be very pretty. A lot of people were locked up for listening to the BBC or some other infraction on the basis of pretty revenge. The was a scene in the program where they hassled this old lady because during the war she dobbed in another girl who was competing with her over some Guy.
by Smaug on Jun 10, 2012 at 11:39 pm
Where is that wretched Newspoll, before I put my tinfoil hat on?
by Fulvio Sammut on Jun 10, 2012 at 11:41 pm
Shows On @1390
The airforce ones are in Nevada. No-one knows where the CIA ones are. There are six or more separate “fleets” of drones, eg army drones, navy drones etc
by psyclaw on Jun 10, 2012 at 11:41 pm
Newspoll will be out tomorrow night.
by confessions on Jun 10, 2012 at 11:42 pm
Fulvio – what makes you think its tonight? They’re usually Tuesday these days.
by Leroy on Jun 10, 2012 at 11:42 pm
Wonder if this was for services to politics, ie getting defeated by Rob Oakeshott and letting the best man win?
by C@tmomma on Jun 10, 2012 at 11:43 pm
Know nothing of polls,but tipping only 6 points different,could be 4 points only.
by Schnappi on Jun 10, 2012 at 11:43 pm
CTar2….Read Prof Chalmers Johnson re Blowback
_______
Re Blowback and the USA
There is a trilogy of books from a great US historian Chalmers Johnson loking at the rise of the the USA empire and it’s slow demise
Johnson was actually an advisor to Reagan…but became a rather prophetic voice in the last years of his life with these remarkable works
The first”BlowbacK” was amazing in it’s view that some great attack would take place on the US as a result of it’s many wars in the islamic world’This was 9/!!
In his second book he wrote of “The Sorrows of Empire” and in the final book he looked at the coming demise of the US through financial collapse and the endless demands of the war machine in the Pentagon
The third volume is called “Nemesis. ,The End of the American republic”
He sees an exhausted and impoverished US Govt replaced in the end by military regime to try and hold the US together
Fanciful??
but who would have believed that the Soviet Union would collapse in our lifetime
”
You can get his three books(there are many others by him) in any good book store or library
He came here a few years ago and I heard him in Sydney
He died last year I think… from memory
by deblonay on Jun 10, 2012 at 11:43 pm
Are we having one here and if so please please don’t tell me Rabbot will be in it.
http://www.london24.com/news/london_world_naked_bike_ride_nude_cyclists_to_ride_city_s_streets_in_protest_1_1404619
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jun 10, 2012 at 11:44 pm
Yep, more politicians getting Queens Birthday Honours – where’s the recognition for tireless ordinary people who do great things in our local communities?
by Thornleigh Labor Man on Jun 10, 2012 at 11:44 pm
Fulvio – Do tinfoil’s help with TLM?
by CTar1 on Jun 10, 2012 at 11:45 pm
2 weeks ago when everyone was expecting a bad Newspoll for Labor, the reverse occured(if you call 54-46 a positive result).
This week, everyone, even the Liberals, are anticipating a good Newspoll for Labor, but could the reverse instead occur?
by Thornleigh Labor Man on Jun 10, 2012 at 11:46 pm
I hope mari is OK, I wonder if she felt this:
by C@tmomma on Jun 10, 2012 at 11:46 pm
Politicians get the most coverage in papers Honours lists, you’d have to ask the journos why, but there will be long lists of all kinds of people.
by Leroy on Jun 10, 2012 at 11:47 pm
deblonay
I’m aware of the origin of the term ‘blowback’ in this context.
by CTar1 on Jun 10, 2012 at 11:49 pm
No matter what the Newspoll actually comes out with, TLM, we can count on you to spin it as badly as possible for the PM.
by C@tmomma on Jun 10, 2012 at 11:51 pm
http://www.smh.com.au/national/emotionally-different-to-a-writing-prize-says-carey-20120610-204e9.html
http://www.smh.com.au/national/festivals-pioneer-shows-how-20120610-204eb.html
There’s more in http://www.smh.com.au/national
by Leroy on Jun 10, 2012 at 11:53 pm
Is the froggy open only on foxtel?
by Last name red wombat on Jun 10, 2012 at 11:53 pm
OK, tinfoil time.
When Newspoll is excessively bad for Labor, it is released early, when it is particularly good for Labor it is released as late as they can get away with, that’s the theory.
I’ve only seen it materialise on two occasions, one each way, and that some time ago, so it’s probably coincidence.
Anyway, William cries BS on it, so it must be BS.
He’s always right in these things, isn’t he?
by Fulvio Sammut on Jun 10, 2012 at 11:54 pm
CTar1, only when an entire roll is scrunched into a ball and rammed down his throat.
by Fulvio Sammut on Jun 10, 2012 at 11:57 pm
Bilbo was right on the long weekend effect for polls.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jun 10, 2012 at 11:59 pm
Blimey, no wonder the Perth based PBérs have been quiet this evening. Most are probably off-line.
Hope they are all ok?
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/national/widespread-damage-across-perth-and-the-south-west-as-winds-tops-120kmh/story-e6freuzr-1226390409005
by scorpio on Jun 11, 2012 at 12:00 am
http://www.smh.com.au/national/queens-birthday-honours-20120610-2049o.html
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jun 11, 2012 at 12:00 am
Fulvio – I don’t think there is any link whatsoever. It goes in cycles. Used to be Mondays usually, then they switched to Tuesdays, sometimes releasing supp questions or individual seats on the Monday for maximum beat up potentential. This has been discussed before here. It’s been consistantly Tuesday for ages now.
Anyway here’s the full list…
http://www.smh.com.au/national/queens-birthday-honours-20120610-2049o.html
by Leroy on Jun 11, 2012 at 12:00 am
Weather’s rotten in Sydney, but nowhere near as bad as in Perth – all to best to everyone in WA.
by Thornleigh Labor Man on Jun 11, 2012 at 12:01 am
Recorded MABO to watch tomorrow – watched DOWNTOWN ABBEY instead.
by Thornleigh Labor Man on Jun 11, 2012 at 12:02 am
Wow! My cousin by marriage, Phillip Toyne received an AO!
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/national/queens-birthday-honours-20120610-2049o.html#ixzz1xOoWlVrq
by C@tmomma on Jun 11, 2012 at 12:08 am
He’s also Peter Garrett’s best friend. They started the Australian Conservation Foundation together.
by C@tmomma on Jun 11, 2012 at 12:09 am
Thornleigh LM …re Downton bbey
_________
I think the ads ruin it’s drama and continuity
We hava a tape of thewhole series two
I could put it up here
I don’t know whether it will take
I’ll have a go
We enjoy the whole series
by deblonay on Jun 11, 2012 at 12:11 am
Fulvio – Just enough tin foil for TLM to do one full on rant a day would be OK – with him possibly considering some other discussion points for the rest of the day might work a bit better.
We’ve got his main point!
by CTar1 on Jun 11, 2012 at 12:12 am
Oh yes, far too many ads on commercial TV these days.
The ABC seems to have bought the British version of Wallander off Channel 7 – that’ll be great without the ads.
by Thornleigh Labor Man on Jun 11, 2012 at 12:14 am
I am fine but I am in a big hospital so probably immune from power outs…
There are still a few Perthites posting though, I think…
by Gweneth on Jun 11, 2012 at 12:14 am
deblonay/TLM
I enjoy as well but correct about the ads. I record, wait half an hour, then play and ff through them.
by CTar1 on Jun 11, 2012 at 12:17 am
Anyway time for sleep.
Ciao
by Gweneth on Jun 11, 2012 at 12:18 am
Yes, Leroy, you’re quite right, tinfoil hat stuff.
Scorpio, I’m in Perth.
Very powerful winds for a couple of hours in the afternoon, 1.30 to 3.30 pm, then it died down somewhat. Unfortunately the weather remained extremely unpleasant with wind and rain, and with it being dark by 5.15 pm, it made it difficult to manage, as the damage was spread out over the entire southwest, an area as big as Tasmania.
No serious injuries that I’m aware of though, and no severe flooding.
I could blame the electricity blackouts on our incompetent and unprepared state government, but that might be tinfoil stuff too.
by Fulvio Sammut on Jun 11, 2012 at 12:18 am
Gittins’ article today is another good one: http://www.smh.com.au/business/economists-fail-the-reality-test-again-20120610-204bq.html
by rishane on Jun 11, 2012 at 12:20 am
Thinking of all the problems that could be solved by hitting Ctrl + Alt + Del on the formal alliance with the Greens political party …
To be fair to Gillard, I think this is in her head. She’s made some good decisions politically over the last couple of days. Big tick for holding this two day economic forum in Brisbane
by spur212 on Jun 11, 2012 at 12:20 am
TLM – See there are other things to talk about.
Branagh – Yes I’ve seen him live doing Shakespear at the Barbican a couple of times as well the TV stuff he does.
I saw that they have the new Wallander and have it on my short list of things to watch – classic selection for Sunday night ABC broadcast.
by CTar1 on Jun 11, 2012 at 12:24 am
spur212 – looks like some people are just too important for that forum…
http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/premier-too-busy-to-attend-talkfest/story-e6freoof-1226390608480
by Leroy on Jun 11, 2012 at 12:27 am
Will he be missed?
Doubt it.
by confessions on Jun 11, 2012 at 12:30 am
Leroy
I watched Queensland QT on A-PAC today. It was eariee. I reckon the LNP will get bored and tear themselves apart within the term in the state parliament.
by spur212 on Jun 11, 2012 at 12:31 am
They probably couldn’t fit Clive in as well.
by CTar1 on Jun 11, 2012 at 12:32 am
I skimmed through the list. I am happy to see a lot of scientists and medical researchers on it. It makes a change from a list mainly of people who just make money.
There seems to be a lot of SA scientists on the list.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jun 11, 2012 at 12:33 am