Seat of the week: La Trobe
This week’s better-late-than-never installment of Seat of the Week brings us to La Trobe, one of two crucial gains for Labor in Victoria at the 2010 election which helped redressed losses in New South Wales and especially Queensland. The defeated Liberal member, Jason Wood, will attempt to recover the seat from Labor’s Laura Smyth at the next election after winning a preselection ballot earlier this week.
La Trobe has covered Melbourne’s eastern fringe since its creation with the enlargement of parliament in 1949, drifting south-eastwards over time from its starting point of Dandenong and Croydon. It now consists of two rapidly growing outer Melbourne areas separated by the Dandenong Ranges – Boronia and Ferntree Gully in the north, and the Berwick area in the south – and extends eastwards through Belgrave to Emerald, Cockatoo and Gembrook. Labor’s strength around Belgrave is countered by Liberal dominance around Berwick. The redistribution that will take effect at the next election has effected a swap of about 16,000 voters around Bayswater, who have been transferred to Aston, for a similar number in Narre Warren, who were previously in Holt. Another 3000 voters around Pakenham have been transferred to McMillan. Antony Green calculates that the changes have boosted Labor’s margin from 0.9% to 1.7%.
Along with other seats in Melbourne’s outer suburban “sandbelt”, La Trobe played a decisive role in the election of the Whitlam government in 1972, falling to Labor for the first time with a 10.2% swing. It swung almost as heavily the other way when the Liberals recovered it in 1975, but returned to the Labor fold in 1980 when Peter Milton defeated Liberal member Marshall Baillieu (part of the clan that includes the current Premier). An unfavourable redistribution in 1990 combined with the statewide anti-Labor tsunami at that year’s election to deliver a 1.4% victory to Liberal candidate Bob Charles. The seat had a remarkably stable time of it on Charles’s watch, staying with the Liberals by 2.4% in 1993, 1.4% in 1996, 1.0% in 1998 and 3.7% in 2001.
With Charles’s retirement at the 2004 election, La Trobe emerged as a contest between Liberal candidate Jason Wood, a police officer who had worked in counter-terrorism and organised crime units, and Labor’s Susan Davies, who held the since-abolished state seat of Gippsland West as an independent from 1997 to 2002. The result was an easy win for Wood, who overcame the loss of Charles’s personal vote to pick up a 2.1% swing that was concentrated in the heavily mortgaged suburbs nearer the city. Wood had won preselection with the backing of the Kennett faction after cutting his teeth as candidate for Holt in 2001. It was noted at the time he had “been a member of Greenpeace for longer than he has been a member of the Liberal Party”, and he went on to embarrass his party ahead of the 2007 election by issuing a brochure that failed to sing from its song sheet on nuclear power.
Wood went into the 2007 election with a 5.8% margin, of which only 0.5% was left after a swing that was most conspicuous in the areas that had moved to the Liberals in 2004. He was promoted to parliamentary secretary for justice and public security when Malcolm Turnbull assumed the Liberal leadership in September 2008, despite the embarrassment he had recently suffered after stammering his way through a parliamentary speech on genetically modified organisms (which repeatedly came out as “orgasms”). The 1.4% swing that unseated him at the 2010 election was fairly typical for Victoria, which collectively swung to Labor by 1.0%. The successful Labor candidate was Laura Smyth, a lawyer for Holding Redlich whom VexNews linked to the “Andrew Giles/Alan Griffin sub-faction of the Socialist Left”.
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Categories: Federal Election 2013, Federal Politics 2010-
Most amusing part of the article is this:
“I’m not spreading doom and gloom, I’m just saying that everything is going to be terrible.”
by Aguirre on Jun 11, 2012 at 1:51 pm
Spur @1720. Whatever gets you through the night. My view is that the mood is changing, the polls have always been soft and that JG is leading the team well, and will win the next election. You can have your cognitive dissonance and I will have mine. sooner or later we will know who has picked the lucky ticket.
The mood change is slow and it will take a while but the MSM has already started the subtle shift in the dance with public sentiment so that they can look like they knew all along that Julia was the best thing going.
Many posters here, including myself, have said these mid term polls are useless. And they are the ONLY indicator that the government is in trouble. EVERY other indicator contradicts them. Possum as only just started paying attention again since the election.
And this is all new territory in terms of minority government and the global conditions. No old system of picking leadership changes apply.
My view anyway.
by Gweneth on Jun 11, 2012 at 1:52 pm
My university (Ballarat) gets the same public holidays as the rest of the state, so all facilities and classes are closed on those days.
Although the Queen’s Birthday usually occurs on Exam Week, so the only difference is that the exams start tomorrow.
by Von Kirsdarke on Jun 11, 2012 at 1:53 pm
Henry – looks more like a grevillea to me. Our Waratahs don’t get those squiggly things on them. Just big red petalled heads on top of a long stem with a few green leaves below the flower head.
by BH on Jun 11, 2012 at 1:53 pm
confessions
Thanks for that
by guytaur on Jun 11, 2012 at 1:55 pm
Joel Fitzgibbon could ask Jason Clare, as successor to Brendan O’Connor (who had privacy in his former portfolio), to release the Australian Law Reform Commission report on privacy which the government has had for > 3 years.
by shellbell on Jun 11, 2012 at 1:55 pm
Absolutely fantastic news. Very well deserved- congratulations Deb!
Deb Lehmann’s study was a before after study of a pool in Jigalong in the middle of WA. There was a reduction in draining ears and skin infections and more kids went to school, although it hasn’t been reproduced to my knowledge.
by Mod Lib on Jun 11, 2012 at 1:56 pm
VK:
That’s interesting. I’ve studied and worked at 3 universities, and only got the easter, xmas and NY public holidays – although the unis closed down for the break between xmas and NY anyway.
by confessions on Jun 11, 2012 at 1:59 pm
The artist who designed the lightbox may have taken some artistic license BH.
I just like it! Quite a feature of an evening when I turn it on. Very nice indeed.
by Henry on Jun 11, 2012 at 1:59 pm
Gweneth,
If only the moronic backbenchers who so easily go weak at the knees in trembling fear would realise this
by Rex Douglas on Jun 11, 2012 at 1:59 pm
If only
Saw your excellent post and tried to reply but now I have lost it
I assume that your figures suggest that AT THE 1.25 MARK (ie 15 MONTHS) there is an average swing of 2.5% (cannot check so memory only) with a SD of 3.5% (approx).
In in other words there is a 97.5% chance that at the next election the ALP will be less than 5% below whatever its current polling is. – in other words in Newspoll is at 44% then there is just a 2.5% chance that Labor will get more than 49%, with a 75% chance of being less than 46.5%.
Not very encouraging!!!!!!
by daretotread on Jun 11, 2012 at 2:00 pm
@Mod Lib/1806
I guess it works in certain area’s.
Not all area’s, however, this does show that Money is needed in Infrastructure in our Education System.
by zoidlord on Jun 11, 2012 at 2:00 pm
ML:
Deb will be interviewed soon, so she might give some indication.
by confessions on Jun 11, 2012 at 2:03 pm
Gweneth,
Nicely balanced post.
I totally agree that placing too much emphasis on inter election polls can lead to erroneous conclusions. The poor personal ratings for Abbott means the Opps support may be broad but not particularly deep. The Government has been implementing its agenda over the last eighteen months. It is now the time where the overblown rhetoric of the Opposition and vested interests in the media and industry will be exposed as nonsense.
The compensation paymetns already made have improved the mood of the voters and there is more to come.
In 18 months time when the next election is due, the LNP will be running on a platform of stripping benefits and turning back the clock. This is unlikely to be a successful strategy.
by Greensborough Growler on Jun 11, 2012 at 2:04 pm
This is hardly a surprise.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-06-11/japan-vows-to-restart-idle-nuclear-reactors/4064094
by BK on Jun 11, 2012 at 2:04 pm
Yep, but the polls are also mysteriously the only indicator the media pays attention to.
by rishane on Jun 11, 2012 at 2:04 pm
Gwenneth
Agree that there has been a slight mood upswing this last week/fortnight. Run Rabbit and the economic stuff have all helped. Should be worth a point or two in the public opinion tests.
by daretotread on Jun 11, 2012 at 2:07 pm
dtt,
As usual, you look for the cloud in the silver lining.
You seem to enjoy looking for reasons that Labor won’t or can’t succeed.
by Greensborough Growler on Jun 11, 2012 at 2:08 pm
ML:
Deb and her partner Mike Alpers do a lot of research in PNG as well.
by confessions on Jun 11, 2012 at 2:09 pm
Henry – I like it too. Really delicate. There is a golden waratah but it seems to be more compacted than that one or as you say the photographer took licence with it.
by BH on Jun 11, 2012 at 2:10 pm
I don’t question the accuracy of polls, I question the responses of the respondents.
How many would change their response if it were an actual election poll ?
by Rex Douglas on Jun 11, 2012 at 2:11 pm
That was the shortest interview I’ve seen! Gillan clearly out of her depth.
by confessions on Jun 11, 2012 at 2:12 pm
DDT – Every time we think there is good news for Labor it doesn’t necessarily translate into better polling but there is a slight change in sentiment doing the rounds. I heard it yesterday at our coffee mornings from the one neighbour who is anti Labor – it was grudging but it was there plus comments that Abbott is a deadset loser for the Libs. His verdict was that they will change him as soon as the election is over!
by BH on Jun 11, 2012 at 2:12 pm
http://www.google.com/search?q=tasmanian+waratah&hl=en&tbo=u&tbm=isch&source=univ&sa=X&ei=62_VT5ORDNCuiQe6o92YAw&ved=0CG8QsAQ&biw=1280&bih=800
Course henry i am no
Not familar with mainland waratah
We have a town named after the s tsmanian waratah and as you can se e
the have those wiggley thi gs
As bh puts it
Of
by my say on Jun 11, 2012 at 2:15 pm
GG
I look for scientific interpretations of facts. I am not into denial.
Fact is a pack of self seeking factional moron kicked out Rudd in 2010 and we a re still paying the price.
The issue for Labor is who will lead them in 2013 with three objective:
1. Winning government
2. Hanging on to a s many seats as possible
3. Survival as a political party.
I think that all talk of Ruddstoration is a waste of time but I am still not at all optimistic about the outcome. I am torn between a loathing for Abbott and the Liberals and a vengeful wish for justice to fall upon the traitorous, malicious, stupid, incompetent, venal perpetrators of the 2010 coup.
Hope this fully explains my position.
by daretotread on Jun 11, 2012 at 2:17 pm
No licence with it look like a spieces, grown here there are several
As the many pictures show
by my say on Jun 11, 2012 at 2:19 pm
BH
Agree
There is always a bit of a time lag. My sense is that it usually takes 2-3 bits of good (or bad news) to shift perceptions in any lasting way. Which is good for Labor this week because there have been 2/3 positives which should push people into having more faith in labor. Once started a perception shift starts to snow ball a bit too.
by daretotread on Jun 11, 2012 at 2:21 pm
BH,
Most people follow each other like sheep.
At the moment, I feel it is a collective bitchfest and FU to the govt – a sort of collective payback and sense of ‘get stuffed your gonna suffer for a while’ feeling in the community while ignoring the massive reform that’s being implemented.
When their votes count, I think the polls will be different.
by Rex Douglas on Jun 11, 2012 at 2:22 pm
confessions@1821,
Please explain?
by C@tmomma on Jun 11, 2012 at 2:22 pm
LOL @ Abbott’s flouro jacket stunts
by Meguire Bob on Jun 11, 2012 at 2:22 pm
The Kouk on Baby BISONs – Australia has gone 21 years without a recession. – http://www.marketeconomics.com.au/2073-economic-nirvana-long-may-it-reign-over-us
by The Finnigans on Jun 11, 2012 at 2:23 pm
GG
I’m not sure that it’s a matter of depth of support generally. The risk for them is that one serious stumble by Abbott can bring the Lib house tumbling down – serious divisions internally are being held in check by the wish to be back in Govt.
If he falters there is, I think, little doubt that Talcum would contest so there will be a fight that may scare the punters.
by CTar1 on Jun 11, 2012 at 2:23 pm
C@t:
Sky journo was interviewing someone I know who has been awarded a Queens birthday gong.
Interview went for all of 2mins, with hardly any information gleaned as the journo wasn’t across the subject.
by confessions on Jun 11, 2012 at 2:24 pm
All praise be to Paul.
Howard tried to wreck the place by neglecting it but it was strong built even Howard and Costello’s lazy ineptitude couldn’t bring it down.
by WeWantPaul on Jun 11, 2012 at 2:25 pm
daretoread 1824
Agree with everything you say, with one exception: Rudd is the only alternative. Forget any other contenders.
Re Howes from other posts. Howes is only interested in and motivated by what is best for him. He helped knife Rudd, and, given the circumstances that would also help him, he would help knife Gillard.
I just want Abbott defeated – dead, buried, cremated ie politically speaking!!
by feeney on Jun 11, 2012 at 2:25 pm
Sorry- distracted with other stuff!
Yes, I know. He was instrumental in the work on Kuru which won someone (who doesnt deserve any further mention) a Nobel Prize in fact!
by Mod Lib on Jun 11, 2012 at 2:27 pm
The results so far for Round 1 of the French Legislative election:
Left Coalition: 46.8%; 25 Seats, +24 from 2007
(Socialist Party: 29.4%; 22 Seats, +21 from 2007)
Right Coalition: 31.2%; 10 Seats, -99 from 2007
(Popular Movement Union: 27.1%; 9 Seats, -89 from 2007)
Front National: 13.6% – 0 Seats
Other: 8.48% – 1 Seat
There’s 577 seats in total, but they’re only won in the first round if the winning candidate gets a vote over 50%.
So that’s another 541 seats to be voted on next weekend.
by Von Kirsdarke on Jun 11, 2012 at 2:30 pm
Discovering Tassie Flora
From a wealth of wildflowers to unique orchids and soaring gums, Tasmania is a paradise of forest, fern and flower.
There are at least 2000 species of native flowering plants. Some 20, including the dainty Tasmanian Waratah, grow only in the island state. Sixty species of ground orchid are found in Freycinet National Park alone. The tallest flowering plant in the world, the Swamp Gum (Eucalyptus regnans) grows to 100 m high and is found only in Tasmania’s forests. Another eucalypt, the Tasmanian Blue Gum (Eucalyptus globulus), is the state’s floral emblem. This beautiful hardwood is cultivated as a source of timber in Tasmanian plantations as well as many places overseas.
http://www.steveparish.com.au/blog/index.php?p=3478
by my say on Jun 11, 2012 at 2:30 pm
Mmm shows you how little mainlanders know about tasmania
by my say on Jun 11, 2012 at 2:31 pm
The Finnigans
At 21 it is a full grown adult BISON. Do any other OECD countries have a 21 year old recession free BISON running around their back paddock ?
by poroti on Jun 11, 2012 at 2:31 pm
Is this finally the conclusion after all these years?
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/business/breaking-news/lindy-chamberlain-creighton-heading-to-darwin-for-azaria-result/story-e6freuz0-1226391195954
by guytaur on Jun 11, 2012 at 2:34 pm
Cuppa hasn’t posted for a while. Is it known if all is well?
by PoK on Jun 11, 2012 at 2:34 pm
I’m sure they know, but it suits their purposes to take them seriously
by Dario on Jun 11, 2012 at 2:35 pm
confessions – Unless it is the he said/she said stuff or running the Lib talking points and media releases they have absolutely no idea how to dissect policy or ask good questions about it. Their producers should be read the riot act as well because it’s the front people who look more inane than they probably are – well, I hope so cos if they are really not clued up there’s not much hope for decent media at all.
by BH on Jun 11, 2012 at 2:35 pm
Feeney
I sort of agree logically but somehow the opposition to Rudd (expressed here on this blog for example) seems just too strong to overcome.
There of course some additional horses in the race, with seemingly Crean and Swan now scratched. I see Emerson and now Burke saddling up. Neither of them has a chance of course.
While I know it may be unfair and based on nothing rational but I personally cannot warm to Burke – have done for years. Emerson is very smart but he is economically so far to the right I would have trouble supporting him (Turnbull and Hockey and probably even Abbott would be to the left of Emerson economically).
PS for those of you unable to see the difference, I have a strong personal respect for Emerson but not his economic free market philosophy.
by daretotread on Jun 11, 2012 at 2:36 pm
dtt,
My recommendation is you build a bridge and get over yourself.
The things you point to are irrelevant in the greater scheme of things because they will take care of themselves provided the Government and its supporters hold their nerve. As anyone who truly understands Labor knows, we are a Movement and individuals come and go as the tide of time sweeps on by. Sure people are disappointed with outcomes from time to time. So, what?
The true test of the value of a Labor Government is the reform agenda that it seeks to implement so as to provide better lives and services for working people and their families. What I see with this Gillard Labor Government is major reform in a broad area of our social and economic areas such as Carbon pricing, Mining Tax, Aged care and so on.
To me being in Government for the sake of it is a pathetic cop out. At the end of the day, if you don’t support the reform agenda then you may as well vote for the Libs. They always promise nothing and make sure you get it.
by Greensborough Growler on Jun 11, 2012 at 2:37 pm
Feney there are very many talented people in tne labor party, as said greg combet.
Mark butler . Andrew leigh. Bill shorten very smart articulate people
One thing tnat stood out for me was when kr was gone
I rea.ised who the ministers where
I thought kr had many many portfolios
Mr k r
he decided not to be fm, why on earth would you do that, whenhe did not have the numbers,
Please stop concerntrolling
Greg combet , would run rings arou d your boy.
by my say on Jun 11, 2012 at 2:39 pm
Feney there are very many talented people in tne labor party, as said greg combet.
Mark butler . Andrew leigh. Bill shorten very smart articulate people
One thing tnat stood out for me was when kr was gone
I rea.ised who the ministers where
I thought kr had many many portfolios
Mr k r
he decided not to be fm, why on earth would you do that, whenhe did not have the numbers,
Please stop concerntrolling
Greg combet , would run rings arou d your boy.
by my say on Jun 11, 2012 at 2:39 pm
Gweneth
If you are still around, hope you are doing okay. Appreciate your sensible observations.
by victoria on Jun 11, 2012 at 2:41 pm
Dario and others
For crying out load it is fairly obvious who the most worried MPs will be
The third ALP senator in each state, since they will almost certainly be out of a job in July 2014
All MPs on margins less than 8%.
Hardly rocket science. On current polling they will mostly be unemployed in 12 months.
Of course they are worried. Who would NOT be.
by daretotread on Jun 11, 2012 at 2:41 pm