Seat of the week: La Trobe
This week’s better-late-than-never installment of Seat of the Week brings us to La Trobe, one of two crucial gains for Labor in Victoria at the 2010 election which helped redressed losses in New South Wales and especially Queensland. The defeated Liberal member, Jason Wood, will attempt to recover the seat from Labor’s Laura Smyth at the next election after winning a preselection ballot earlier this week.
La Trobe has covered Melbourne’s eastern fringe since its creation with the enlargement of parliament in 1949, drifting south-eastwards over time from its starting point of Dandenong and Croydon. It now consists of two rapidly growing outer Melbourne areas separated by the Dandenong Ranges – Boronia and Ferntree Gully in the north, and the Berwick area in the south – and extends eastwards through Belgrave to Emerald, Cockatoo and Gembrook. Labor’s strength around Belgrave is countered by Liberal dominance around Berwick. The redistribution that will take effect at the next election has effected a swap of about 16,000 voters around Bayswater, who have been transferred to Aston, for a similar number in Narre Warren, who were previously in Holt. Another 3000 voters around Pakenham have been transferred to McMillan. Antony Green calculates that the changes have boosted Labor’s margin from 0.9% to 1.7%.
Along with other seats in Melbourne’s outer suburban “sandbelt”, La Trobe played a decisive role in the election of the Whitlam government in 1972, falling to Labor for the first time with a 10.2% swing. It swung almost as heavily the other way when the Liberals recovered it in 1975, but returned to the Labor fold in 1980 when Peter Milton defeated Liberal member Marshall Baillieu (part of the clan that includes the current Premier). An unfavourable redistribution in 1990 combined with the statewide anti-Labor tsunami at that year’s election to deliver a 1.4% victory to Liberal candidate Bob Charles. The seat had a remarkably stable time of it on Charles’s watch, staying with the Liberals by 2.4% in 1993, 1.4% in 1996, 1.0% in 1998 and 3.7% in 2001.
With Charles’s retirement at the 2004 election, La Trobe emerged as a contest between Liberal candidate Jason Wood, a police officer who had worked in counter-terrorism and organised crime units, and Labor’s Susan Davies, who held the since-abolished state seat of Gippsland West as an independent from 1997 to 2002. The result was an easy win for Wood, who overcame the loss of Charles’s personal vote to pick up a 2.1% swing that was concentrated in the heavily mortgaged suburbs nearer the city. Wood had won preselection with the backing of the Kennett faction after cutting his teeth as candidate for Holt in 2001. It was noted at the time he had “been a member of Greenpeace for longer than he has been a member of the Liberal Party”, and he went on to embarrass his party ahead of the 2007 election by issuing a brochure that failed to sing from its song sheet on nuclear power.
Wood went into the 2007 election with a 5.8% margin, of which only 0.5% was left after a swing that was most conspicuous in the areas that had moved to the Liberals in 2004. He was promoted to parliamentary secretary for justice and public security when Malcolm Turnbull assumed the Liberal leadership in September 2008, despite the embarrassment he had recently suffered after stammering his way through a parliamentary speech on genetically modified organisms (which repeatedly came out as “orgasms”). The 1.4% swing that unseated him at the 2010 election was fairly typical for Victoria, which collectively swung to Labor by 1.0%. The successful Labor candidate was Laura Smyth, a lawyer for Holding Redlich whom VexNews linked to the “Andrew Giles/Alan Griffin sub-faction of the Socialist Left”.
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Categories: Federal Election 2013, Federal Politics 2010-
BB:
You’ll be pleased to know that Matthew Franklin has a lot of faith in Shanahan. According to him:
He had lots more nice things to say about Shana, including that he was right about “Rudd ascendancy” and “Gillard coup”.
I didn’t think Shanahan was right about either of those, but maybe I’m mistaken…
by Aguirre on Jun 9, 2012 at 7:59 pm
@gusface
Of course I stay away from Young Liberal meetings.
Like they’d let me in without a pair of jackboots and a riding crop for whipping peasants.
Besides, I don’t want to catch that particular disease that causes bitterness and roonism.
by Von Kirsdarke on Jun 9, 2012 at 8:01 pm
Scringler
I don’t see why you couldn’t do this, my neighbour has a solar panel that he uses for similar purposes on his caravan. Might pay to have a chat to a caravan supplier.
Cheers,
Terry
by HaveAchat on Jun 9, 2012 at 8:01 pm
MTBW given the situation that the government depended on Thomson not being bankrupted. I fully support the decision but it should have been revealed earlier. Thomson is a fool for starting proceedings that were likely to end like this
Puff i am sure that has been thought of – the union books are likely to be audited.
by Oakeshott Country on Jun 9, 2012 at 8:02 pm
The attack against labor and the unions is clearly being played to lay the platform for IR changes by the libs. Divide and conquer.
No way should labor be embarrased into cutting ties with the union movement.Labor and the unions should embrace each other and be united in the struggle for a fair go for all. For christ sake both labor and the unions exist to protect those less able to look after themselves. No reason to hang your head in shame but to hold it high. they need to unit and fight together.
It will need a bit of PR on the part of both labor and the unions but there are strong positives that need to be pushed.
Feed into the fair go theme and let it rip.
by Doyley on Jun 9, 2012 at 8:02 pm
IMO, Chris Padgham of Warrandyte nails it in today’s Letters to the Editor:
by fiona on Jun 9, 2012 at 8:02 pm
You should expect Newspoll to be bad for the govt. There is no point anticipating improving polls for the govt at this point.
This is a long game.
by confessions on Jun 9, 2012 at 8:05 pm
fiona
Definitely nails it!
by victoria on Jun 9, 2012 at 8:05 pm
confessions
I am not expecting the polls to improve in the short term. In any event, the education bonus will be paid to families by the end of this week. 410 per primary student and 820 for secondary student. Substantial funds going to families. It will create a mini stimulus in the economy. Together with lower interest rates and tax cuts to follow next month. Polls should start to improve
by victoria on Jun 9, 2012 at 8:09 pm
The Opposition’s new policy on asylum seekers is not receiving terribly positive coverage in the online Murdoch media at present.
news.com.au at 15:08 has an AAP story in the Telegraph “Abbott announces tougher asylum policy” which gives only the Abbott proposal http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/national/abbott-announces-tougher-asylum-policy/story-e6freuzr-1226389833978
Then at 15:08 it carries an AAP article in the Australian “Immigration Minister fights back as Coalition enhances refugee policy”
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/afp-captain-emad-source-unreliable/story-fn59niix-1226389839559
Then at 17:15 it carries a third article “Tony Abbott attacked over asylum seeker crackdown”
http://www.news.com.au/national/tony-abbott-announces-tougher-asylum-policy/story-e6frfkvr-1226389847274
The ABC meanwhile has not updated its story “Opposition toughens refugee policy” posted at 14:25.
The ABC’s lead story remains its self justification whinge “Four Corners defends Captain Emad whistleblower” against the story in the Australian that the whistleblower is unreliable (in a very similar manner to this week’s Channel 9 vs channel 7 stoush over the alleged escort). If the ABC believes this is the most important story in Australia at present, then they should not be surprised if people tend to sneer at their online slogan “Australia’s leading source of information and entertainment”.
by citizen on Jun 9, 2012 at 8:11 pm
Oakshott country
Also believe richardson was a big influence in thomson dropping the defamation,due to costs
by Schnappi on Jun 9, 2012 at 8:12 pm
fiona – top letter. It was reported on local radio here a few months ago that Baillieu only works until lunchtime on Friday and then goes to his weekend bolt hole til Monday. Is his electorate in the bolt hole location?
by BH on Jun 9, 2012 at 8:13 pm
So what if the books were auditted? Big biz shove money around all the time to save taxes, fees etc. Why can’t a union off-state its dosh if it wants to pay for stuff for the ALP, particularly when that law is an abomination?
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jun 9, 2012 at 8:13 pm
victoria:
The last time a Labor govt stimulated the economy its leader blocked ministers talking about it except in asinine ways. Let’s hope this time round is different.
by confessions on Jun 9, 2012 at 8:18 pm
Teachers other public service employees etc are also among the final bastions of unions (along with construction etc).
No wonder libs always sack them first once they get back into power.
I’m sure a significant number of the 10,000 BOF is going to bone in NSW, actually voted for him.
by dave on Jun 9, 2012 at 8:22 pm
BH,
Baillieu’s electorate is Hawthorn, which is leafy green eastern (Melbourne) suburbs conservative heartland, though towards the northern, more intellectual part thereof (I live in Kew, immediately to the north of Hawthorn
)
He is a fan of the Geelong Cats, which might suggest that his bolthole is on the Bellerine Peninsula, but he’s also a member of the Sorrento Golf Club, on the Mornington Peninsula, and given that the Mornington Peninsula has more many more “upper class” enclaves than the Bellerine, I’d opt for somewhere down on the Mornington Peninsula … and his sister live down there too.
by fiona on Jun 9, 2012 at 8:24 pm
confessions
JG has already instructed her ministers to spruik the education bonus
by victoria on Jun 9, 2012 at 8:26 pm
dave
I was always amazed at public servants who voted Liberal, talk about the lobster voting for the pot.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jun 9, 2012 at 8:27 pm
I SAID SHAKE, RATTLE AND ROLL!
by ShowsOn on Jun 9, 2012 at 8:28 pm
Puff,
I’m always amazed at anyone on or below the mean income voting Liberal – but then, there’s always that weird aspirational thing to be factored in – the Alf Garnett effect.
by fiona on Jun 9, 2012 at 8:29 pm
Apparently Abbott will be the Bolt Report tomorrow morning. Obviously to spruik his stop the boats mantra
by victoria on Jun 9, 2012 at 8:29 pm
fiona – thanks. When I heard it I thought it was around the Portsea area but it may have been Mornington instead and I just got the areas mixed up.
by BH on Jun 9, 2012 at 8:29 pm
Schnappi
Wouldn’t surprise me either. The NSW Branch membership numbers has fallen off a cliff nowhere near the revenue they once received is being received today.
by MTBW on Jun 9, 2012 at 8:31 pm
BH
Portsea is on the Mornington peninsula
by victoria on Jun 9, 2012 at 8:31 pm
Puff
NSW Labor deserved to be voted out, but if I was a public servant I would have been a bit more careful.
Canberra public servants know what awaits them if abbott gets up – not just the senior executive public servants.
Mind you Labor has been cutting PS numbers as well, again making further cuts by abbott even harder should he get up.
I’m sure booby traps have been laid all over the place and lots more to come to frustrate any incoming lib government.
Not that I’m conceding defeat by any means this far out.
by dave on Jun 9, 2012 at 8:37 pm
by victoria on Jun 9, 2012 at 8:37 pm
Another tough, no holds barred interview!
by BK on Jun 9, 2012 at 8:40 pm
BH,
My apologies, I should have been more explicit. If I were to describe Portsea as the crème de la crème of the Mornington Peninsula (as some like to view it), I would risk putting some very elevated noses out of joint
by fiona on Jun 9, 2012 at 8:40 pm
Labor and the unions should just keep pointing out that weak unions = higher rates of deaths at work and lower pay. The USA is a prime example where unions have been weakened to their barest bones.
by Fiz on Jun 9, 2012 at 8:41 pm
I rest my case.
by confessions on Jun 9, 2012 at 8:41 pm
Fiona
Portsea is the Toorak of the coast
by victoria on Jun 9, 2012 at 8:42 pm
BK:
I’d like to
seeread others’ reports on that …by fiona on Jun 9, 2012 at 8:43 pm
Victoria,
Portsea residents think that they live in the Toorak of the coast.
Puir deluded wee things.
by fiona on Jun 9, 2012 at 8:44 pm
fiona
There’s no way I’ll be seeing it either!
by BK on Jun 9, 2012 at 8:45 pm
And lower wages means lower wages for most, not just those who are represented by unions. It has a flow-on effect to wages in general.
Just on an education note: when public education unions strike, private school teachers (especially in the Catholic CEO and many independent schools) also benefit as their awards ultimately change when public school teachers’ wages increase..
by Fiz on Jun 9, 2012 at 8:46 pm
fiona
So true! I much prefer Dromana!
by victoria on Jun 9, 2012 at 8:47 pm
fiona and victoria – I remember having to go around the other side to get the ferry over to Portsea or Sorrento so I thought the Geelong area was on the side where we caught the ferry. Is the ferry at Queenstown or something similar.
Haven’t been down that way for about 10 years so a bit hazy now. We had friends at Portsea and the noses were extremely elevated – in fact, so high they had flippin’ snow on them!!
by BH on Jun 9, 2012 at 8:47 pm
BH
The ferry is from Queenscliff to Sorrento
by victoria on Jun 9, 2012 at 8:49 pm
Puff
I seem to recall somewhere data that showed that whilst Coalition govts talk tough and sack a certain number of public servants when they first get in, they actually increase the size of the public service to a much greater extent over the life of their govt than Labor ever does. Maybe public servants are well aware of the difference between Coalition rhetoric and the reality.
by Fiz on Jun 9, 2012 at 8:50 pm
BH,
The ferry runs between Queenscliff and Sorrento. There are lots of fantastic places on both peninsulas – and both are under threat (of course) with over-development.
Queenscliff is still a total charmer, and the Borough of Queenscliff was the only local government area to hold out against Kennett’s amalgamations – largely (I suspect) because there were enough high-powered residents (even if only holiday residents) who jacked up.
by fiona on Jun 9, 2012 at 8:52 pm
Right, so not so much an interview as a rim job then?
by grantplant on Jun 9, 2012 at 8:52 pm
OT, but fascinated to see Joyce trying to defend his failure at Qantas whose Board along with Joyce is in need of immediate replacement. In the meantime Borghetti at Virgin continues to thrive. PJK’s comments were instructive when he said that, were he PM during Joyce’s little stunt, would have ‘let Joyce swing’. After a few weeks of huge expense and no income the moribund Board would have had to remove the problem and get Qantas working again.
The Qantas Board has a lot to answer for.
by muttleymcgee on Jun 9, 2012 at 8:54 pm
Half time: Wallabies 10 – Wales 3.
by grantplant on Jun 9, 2012 at 8:54 pm
As newly weds, we bought a run down old cottage (which had a demolition order slapped on it a year after we purchased it) on the ‘wrong’ side of the Peninsula.
After we’d been there for a few months, we bought the block next door as well.
My sister likes to remind me of the time we went to look at a recently opened estate, and when the saleswoman looked down her nose at me, I said that I already owned two properties down here and was thinking of buying another!
All true, of course, and the level of interest on her part increased dramatically.
by zoomster on Jun 9, 2012 at 8:56 pm
Fiz,
The usual pattern is to sack public servants, then employ consultants (usually former public servants) at much greater expense, then start PS recruitment again …
Like, real savvy management of corporate memory, experience, expenditure.
by fiona on Jun 9, 2012 at 8:57 pm
muttleymcgee @ 241
I am wondering to what extent Joyce is influenced by Leigh Clifford, the Chairman and a particularly nasty piece of work.
by bemused on Jun 9, 2012 at 8:59 pm
Compared with AllBlacks 23, Ireland 3 at half time.
It could be a Bloody Slow year for the Wobblies this year.
by muttleymcgee on Jun 9, 2012 at 8:59 pm
We noticed it, even 10 years ago. Dromana seemed to be suburbs compared with our trip down there 15 years before that.
Absolutely loved Queenscliff and the buildings so we took heaps of photos and my OH did a lot of pencil drawings of them and won a couple of prizes at Art Shows with them.
Spent a week in Geelong in 1980 with hundreds of Apexians for a big celebration. Prince Charles attended over the weekend and we managed a few photos out of it. (My nose should have been elevated!) We even went to see Geelong playing footy against Carlton I think.
by BH on Jun 9, 2012 at 9:00 pm
My recent recherche period may have gone awry.
Is bemused actually agreeing with me?
Is there anything I can take for it ….?
Should I?
by muttleymcgee on Jun 9, 2012 at 9:02 pm
This was a comment on the IA site re KJackson
by victoria on Jun 9, 2012 at 9:06 pm