Seat of the week: La Trobe
This week’s better-late-than-never installment of Seat of the Week brings us to La Trobe, one of two crucial gains for Labor in Victoria at the 2010 election which helped redressed losses in New South Wales and especially Queensland. The defeated Liberal member, Jason Wood, will attempt to recover the seat from Labor’s Laura Smyth at the next election after winning a preselection ballot earlier this week.
La Trobe has covered Melbourne’s eastern fringe since its creation with the enlargement of parliament in 1949, drifting south-eastwards over time from its starting point of Dandenong and Croydon. It now consists of two rapidly growing outer Melbourne areas separated by the Dandenong Ranges – Boronia and Ferntree Gully in the north, and the Berwick area in the south – and extends eastwards through Belgrave to Emerald, Cockatoo and Gembrook. Labor’s strength around Belgrave is countered by Liberal dominance around Berwick. The redistribution that will take effect at the next election has effected a swap of about 16,000 voters around Bayswater, who have been transferred to Aston, for a similar number in Narre Warren, who were previously in Holt. Another 3000 voters around Pakenham have been transferred to McMillan. Antony Green calculates that the changes have boosted Labor’s margin from 0.9% to 1.7%.
Along with other seats in Melbourne’s outer suburban “sandbelt”, La Trobe played a decisive role in the election of the Whitlam government in 1972, falling to Labor for the first time with a 10.2% swing. It swung almost as heavily the other way when the Liberals recovered it in 1975, but returned to the Labor fold in 1980 when Peter Milton defeated Liberal member Marshall Baillieu (part of the clan that includes the current Premier). An unfavourable redistribution in 1990 combined with the statewide anti-Labor tsunami at that year’s election to deliver a 1.4% victory to Liberal candidate Bob Charles. The seat had a remarkably stable time of it on Charles’s watch, staying with the Liberals by 2.4% in 1993, 1.4% in 1996, 1.0% in 1998 and 3.7% in 2001.
With Charles’s retirement at the 2004 election, La Trobe emerged as a contest between Liberal candidate Jason Wood, a police officer who had worked in counter-terrorism and organised crime units, and Labor’s Susan Davies, who held the since-abolished state seat of Gippsland West as an independent from 1997 to 2002. The result was an easy win for Wood, who overcame the loss of Charles’s personal vote to pick up a 2.1% swing that was concentrated in the heavily mortgaged suburbs nearer the city. Wood had won preselection with the backing of the Kennett faction after cutting his teeth as candidate for Holt in 2001. It was noted at the time he had “been a member of Greenpeace for longer than he has been a member of the Liberal Party”, and he went on to embarrass his party ahead of the 2007 election by issuing a brochure that failed to sing from its song sheet on nuclear power.
Wood went into the 2007 election with a 5.8% margin, of which only 0.5% was left after a swing that was most conspicuous in the areas that had moved to the Liberals in 2004. He was promoted to parliamentary secretary for justice and public security when Malcolm Turnbull assumed the Liberal leadership in September 2008, despite the embarrassment he had recently suffered after stammering his way through a parliamentary speech on genetically modified organisms (which repeatedly came out as “orgasms”). The 1.4% swing that unseated him at the 2010 election was fairly typical for Victoria, which collectively swung to Labor by 1.0%. The successful Labor candidate was Laura Smyth, a lawyer for Holding Redlich whom VexNews linked to the “Andrew Giles/Alan Griffin sub-faction of the Socialist Left”.
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Categories: Federal Election 2013, Federal Politics 2010-
Victoria, hear hear.
The men should stick to their game and the women to theirs
by Centre on Jun 11, 2012 at 5:21 pm
I some how dont think shows on cares
all what matters is putting grief on labor supporters
by Meguire Bob on Jun 11, 2012 at 5:21 pm
What a total wank. Many voters will just see Rudd as PM and feel that they are finally free to vote Labor again, and now Abbott’s personal characteristics would make HIM the big risk.
Voters KNOW that political parties go out of their way to win. How exactly is that a bad thing? Why would you vote for a party that was so lacking in self belief that it didn’t do all it could to win?
by ShowsOn on Jun 11, 2012 at 5:21 pm
Apart from the fact, that a “push in the back” is against AFL rules.
I remember when my AFL-playin, star centre-half-forward, built like a brick shithouse, BIL played Basketball for the first time and was bewildered when he copped a foul for riding another player into the hardcourt when going for a “mark”.
Fk, we laughed.
I’m interested, though, in why bemused calls AFL “girlie”.
by kezza2 on Jun 11, 2012 at 5:21 pm
For those who keep bringing up stability in order to defend Gillard, keep in mind she is blamed by most of the electorate for creating the instability and uncertainty of the current parliament.
by spur212 on Jun 11, 2012 at 5:22 pm
Showsoff@ 2137 in his usual arrogant and rather nasty way wrote (in his usual inane upper-case style)
OH YEAH, REALLY! WELL YOUR MOTHER IS REALLY FAT!
He really knows how to resort to invective when his arguments (as always) fall in a heap.
by Brian Mc on Jun 11, 2012 at 5:22 pm
victoria @ 2134
And you don’t think rugby players run a lot?
Rather than having a position on the ground, the team follows the ball up and down the ground with the exception of the full back.
So you find rugby boring? Fine, I find AFL about as exciting as watching grass grow. To each their own.
by bemused on Jun 11, 2012 at 5:22 pm
Painful Pavlovian Doggy, you meanz hypocrisy like this? but I think you know it already, still it’s good for a laugh to remind everyone:
by The Finnigans on Jun 11, 2012 at 5:23 pm
Some really surprising results in this from Poss.
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/2012/06/11/what-australians-believe/
by BH on Jun 11, 2012 at 5:23 pm
Feeney:
I heard Tanner, or at least the Victorian Left, were involved. I don’t know if that’s who you’re referring to.
by Aguirre on Jun 11, 2012 at 5:24 pm
Bout time, but i really want
there til november.
by imacca on Jun 11, 2012 at 5:24 pm
Wishful bloody thinking mate! The 59 was clearly an outlier, the 55 and 54 are statistically the same, Coalition in landslide win territory.
Well that’s setting the bar pretty low. Firstly, if Gillard can’t get some sort of bounce from another interest rate cut and announcement the economy is growing at its fastest pace since before the GFC then she will never get a bounce.
But secondly, 34 on the primary is 4% less than at the last election that Labor only just managed to ‘win’, so it would still more than likely result in an election loss.
This WOULD be something, but Gillard hasn’t managed a 52 Newspoll for over a year and a half.
by ShowsOn on Jun 11, 2012 at 5:24 pm
Brian Mc, dont worry about Showy. He is suffering from ADS, because he hasnt been quoted in Hansard lately, whereas my BISONs are discussed everyday and everywhere.
by The Finnigans on Jun 11, 2012 at 5:24 pm
In my Newspoll data base, there have been 9 federal elections (from 1987):
- the opposition has won (only) twice
- in both those instances, the LOTO net satisfaction (*) was positive: 96 and 07
* LOTO have always lost when net satisfaction was negative (4 times)
* LOTO have not won despite net satisfaction being positive 3 times
- the PM has won 3 times when their net satisfaction was negative, including:
* in 93 when it was a whopping -29%
* in 98 when the LOTO’s was positive
(*) Being the 4-survey-up-to-election average of (approval minus disapproval) of PM and LOTO
by Laocoon on Jun 11, 2012 at 5:26 pm
G’day Bemused,
Nope, but to me there is a whole new world out there who are detached from the ‘traditional’ MSM and seem to be beyond the farce we refer to as ‘polling’, as they have mobiles, and twitter, facebook, and the like. There are lots of them who will shape our future increasingly as time goes on, just as your g’daughter will, probably in the 2017 election. Their education seems a lot broader than what I experienced and they seem a lot more aware than we were.
Those I speak to refer to Rabbott disparagingly and seem to be roughly equally divided on Gillard although the assistance Mum & Dad are getting has had a positive effect.
Certainly they are the key to the immediate future, and how to reach them is vital.
by muttleymcgee on Jun 11, 2012 at 5:26 pm
Now, this i got to agree with the old Fart Bemused. See he does have some redeeming feature afterall
by The Finnigans on Jun 11, 2012 at 5:26 pm
The finns
Do you think QandA audience will ask JG about the bisons tonight?
by victoria on Jun 11, 2012 at 5:26 pm
Bemused I agree you cop a lot of abuse, much of it unwarranted. But you dish it out as well. You’d cop a lot less if you didn’t resort so often to gratuitous comments about posters’ drinking habits. As for Shows, I don’t think he is open to any sort of dialogue on this particular issue.
by Rossmore on Jun 11, 2012 at 5:27 pm
ShowsOn @ 2140
And he was a very respected Minister and someone who knew her a long time and was in a position to make an informed judgement.
Just saying.
by bemused on Jun 11, 2012 at 5:27 pm
Centre:
What am I going to do with you?! They have women goal umpires in the AFL these days. It’s really no big deal for fans either.
by confessions on Jun 11, 2012 at 5:27 pm
Something might be working. Combet might have found the key to pricking the blowhard LOTO.
by BH on Jun 11, 2012 at 5:28 pm
Voters couldn’t give a shit about another leadership change if that change is to Rudd. They will just see it as Labor coming to its senses and fixing up what they did in 2010.
The Liberals could crap on about it all they like, but they know for a fact Rudd is a far more popular politician than Gillard AND EVEN THERE OWN LEADER!
Rudd has been attacked repeatedly by both Coalition and Labor MPs but he is still FARE MORE POPULAR than both Abbott and Gillard! If all the Coalition does is pursue a heap of personal attacks people will just interpret it as the Coalition’s fear that Rudd is a threat to their electoral prospects.
Rudd put up with a heap of personal attacks leading up to the 2007 election too, but it didn’t stop him picking up 20 seats at that election.
by ShowsOn on Jun 11, 2012 at 5:28 pm
The finns
Sorry but you are wRONg. rugby is as boring as watching grass grow.
by victoria on Jun 11, 2012 at 5:28 pm
The president of Nauru dismissed the country’s entire cabinet on Monday. – Including Tony Abbott and his 40 Thieves? – http://www.radioaustralia.net.au/international/2012-06-11/nauru-sacks-entire-cabinet/958686
by The Finnigans on Jun 11, 2012 at 5:29 pm
If Newspoll does show an improvement for Labor it will be interesting to see if Morgan brings out a poll the next day to counteract it as they did last fortnight.
by BH on Jun 11, 2012 at 5:30 pm
vic,i am just trying to be nice to the old fart
by The Finnigans on Jun 11, 2012 at 5:30 pm
Finnigans @ 2162
my BISONs are discussed everyday and everywhere.
BISONS forever.
Btw, I alerted our probable ALP candidate here in Macquarie to the BISONS. She was very impressed and intends to make use of them as she moves on to add to the ALP NSW tally.
by Brian Mc on Jun 11, 2012 at 5:30 pm
political animal @ 2146
Good! We are in agreement that Julia Gillard is not a man.
by bemused on Jun 11, 2012 at 5:31 pm
I don’t think the carbon tax will ultimately be good or bad for Labor, but it is VERY VERY bad personally for Gillard and is the major reason she is so unpopular.
I would say that more people have asked me about the carbon tax in the last month than in the year before, so I don’t agree that concern about it is dissipating at all. The GST didn’t acheive peak unpopularity until 6 months after it started.
Quoting Andrew Elder, Tone is the ultimate Hollow Man which Gillard definitely is not.
Oh great! So if you just call Tony Abbott enough names the Labor 2pp vote will increase? Good for you.
I am happy to keep steaming ahead with PM Gillard.
You may be steaming ahead, but you are up shit creek because Labor’s vote under Gillard is going nowhere.
by ShowsOn on Jun 11, 2012 at 5:31 pm
I fail to see how calling AFL ‘girlie’ is homophobic. It might be sexist in suggesting females tend to play less aggressive sports, which by our construction of society and its sports is true. If suggesting AFL is akin to less physically aggressive sports is a bit much for some, than I can only say, toughen up princess. Real football (soccer) is tougher than AFL, imo because the tolerances for mistakes is finer, and the consequences of good and bad decisions more drastic. I am not so conversant with rugby but I get the idea the situation is very similar.
I doubt AFL players would have the mental toughness to last long in football (soccer) and certainly not their followers.
Look at all the whinging when that player for Hawthorn (?) didn’t get that mark on the siren because he make the erroneous decision to play on rather than take the mark.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jun 11, 2012 at 5:31 pm
victoria
Even more boring is that strange start-stop American version. They seem to take all day.
by lizzie on Jun 11, 2012 at 5:31 pm
And therein lies the rub of your argument. Trouble is its not true. Never was, never will be. But hey the Opposition says it is so let’s change back to a deposed leader because we’re running scared of a few polls!
The facts:
1. The government has legislated a carbon trading system with a fixed price for the first three years… you cannot buy and sell a tax.
2. Ms Gillard said: “I don’t rule out the possibility of legislating a Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme, a market-based mechanism, I rule out a carbon tax.”
Labor people are not spineless and don’t run from a fight… we the TRUE BELIEVERS die standing and will NOT live on our knees because you and your kind haven’t got what it it takes when the enemy bark.
by Gecko on Jun 11, 2012 at 5:32 pm
@ABCNews24: On #CapitalHill with @LyndalCurtis now, Liberal @asouthcottmp and Labor Senator @Louise_Pratt http://t.co/AhggUgUN #auspol
by guytaur on Jun 11, 2012 at 5:32 pm
Great – a shining example of a contented and passive country in which to house displaced refugees … not!
by BH on Jun 11, 2012 at 5:32 pm
Henry @ 1725
I am told by those who have worked with him that the ‘matey matey’ persona masks the real Joe who is a nasty piece of work.
by CO on Jun 11, 2012 at 5:33 pm
Thank you for your idiotic analysis of my posting style, I give your analysis 2 out of 10, which is a Fail.
by ShowsOn on Jun 11, 2012 at 5:33 pm
Puff
It was Essendon
by victoria on Jun 11, 2012 at 5:34 pm
lizzie
Agreed. American football is much worse than Rugby
by victoria on Jun 11, 2012 at 5:34 pm
victoria
er-um
There was a comment on one of the weekend rugby games’ TV coverage (SA v England I think) that the referee ran the equivalent of 10km during a game…
by Laocoon on Jun 11, 2012 at 5:35 pm
Puuuufffyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy, did i see you on Telly the other day?
by The Finnigans on Jun 11, 2012 at 5:35 pm
Shows On
You make a lot of statements about who the voters do or don’t listen to and what they will think of a Leadership change.
Got any backing for any of your dogmatic statements or are you just echoing old MSM memes?
by political animal on Jun 11, 2012 at 5:35 pm
‘Many’ voters will be then be shown the reality of Kev-07 ‘rule’ via what the Press knows and it will not be pretty.
Death in one 24 hr news cycle.
by CTar1 on Jun 11, 2012 at 5:36 pm
BH
I could watch his performance on Sky again and again.Especially where he was talking about fighting the
by poroti on Jun 11, 2012 at 5:36 pm
CO
My cousin has worked up and close with both Lib and Labor pollies. He says that Abbott is two faced and Hockey plays nice guy. Wont say what he thinks of Rudd. The precious petals on this blog will cry
by victoria on Jun 11, 2012 at 5:36 pm
I see AFL as Cross country netball, and what is the go with the Men in White Coats who frantically wave their flags at each other each time there’s a point scored? Weird ….
It is surely entertaining, though, but the AFL description of tough isn’t close to Union or league. I admit I have trouble with League – they go to all that trouble to take the guy down, then let him get up!
Watching the sheepen shaggers sort the rest is always good, especially the shackle draggers who need some 21st century, alloy shackles the way they’re going ……
(Takes cover in well-stocked bunker, arms weapons, laffin’ …..)
by muttleymcgee on Jun 11, 2012 at 5:36 pm
I would say that more people have asked me about the carbon tax in the last month than in the year before
Well, duh, it comes into force in 20 days.
by political animal on Jun 11, 2012 at 5:37 pm
Laocoon
I am talking about NRL. Not rugby union
by victoria on Jun 11, 2012 at 5:38 pm
Laocoon,
Such statistical information that you have produced is far too complicated for some here to digest in their tiny little brains.
Don’t you know; LNP 55/ ALP 45 = Labor must change leader before it’s too late
by Centre on Jun 11, 2012 at 5:38 pm
I agree AFL players are super fit but I think a big hit from Artie and they would be limping off the field looking for their trainer.
by davidwh on Jun 11, 2012 at 5:38 pm
The Finnigans @ 2165
Now all we need is for you to learn some civility and we will get on fine.
by bemused on Jun 11, 2012 at 5:39 pm