Seat of the week: La Trobe
This week’s better-late-than-never installment of Seat of the Week brings us to La Trobe, one of two crucial gains for Labor in Victoria at the 2010 election which helped redressed losses in New South Wales and especially Queensland. The defeated Liberal member, Jason Wood, will attempt to recover the seat from Labor’s Laura Smyth at the next election after winning a preselection ballot earlier this week.
La Trobe has covered Melbourne’s eastern fringe since its creation with the enlargement of parliament in 1949, drifting south-eastwards over time from its starting point of Dandenong and Croydon. It now consists of two rapidly growing outer Melbourne areas separated by the Dandenong Ranges – Boronia and Ferntree Gully in the north, and the Berwick area in the south – and extends eastwards through Belgrave to Emerald, Cockatoo and Gembrook. Labor’s strength around Belgrave is countered by Liberal dominance around Berwick. The redistribution that will take effect at the next election has effected a swap of about 16,000 voters around Bayswater, who have been transferred to Aston, for a similar number in Narre Warren, who were previously in Holt. Another 3000 voters around Pakenham have been transferred to McMillan. Antony Green calculates that the changes have boosted Labor’s margin from 0.9% to 1.7%.
Along with other seats in Melbourne’s outer suburban “sandbelt”, La Trobe played a decisive role in the election of the Whitlam government in 1972, falling to Labor for the first time with a 10.2% swing. It swung almost as heavily the other way when the Liberals recovered it in 1975, but returned to the Labor fold in 1980 when Peter Milton defeated Liberal member Marshall Baillieu (part of the clan that includes the current Premier). An unfavourable redistribution in 1990 combined with the statewide anti-Labor tsunami at that year’s election to deliver a 1.4% victory to Liberal candidate Bob Charles. The seat had a remarkably stable time of it on Charles’s watch, staying with the Liberals by 2.4% in 1993, 1.4% in 1996, 1.0% in 1998 and 3.7% in 2001.
With Charles’s retirement at the 2004 election, La Trobe emerged as a contest between Liberal candidate Jason Wood, a police officer who had worked in counter-terrorism and organised crime units, and Labor’s Susan Davies, who held the since-abolished state seat of Gippsland West as an independent from 1997 to 2002. The result was an easy win for Wood, who overcame the loss of Charles’s personal vote to pick up a 2.1% swing that was concentrated in the heavily mortgaged suburbs nearer the city. Wood had won preselection with the backing of the Kennett faction after cutting his teeth as candidate for Holt in 2001. It was noted at the time he had “been a member of Greenpeace for longer than he has been a member of the Liberal Party”, and he went on to embarrass his party ahead of the 2007 election by issuing a brochure that failed to sing from its song sheet on nuclear power.
Wood went into the 2007 election with a 5.8% margin, of which only 0.5% was left after a swing that was most conspicuous in the areas that had moved to the Liberals in 2004. He was promoted to parliamentary secretary for justice and public security when Malcolm Turnbull assumed the Liberal leadership in September 2008, despite the embarrassment he had recently suffered after stammering his way through a parliamentary speech on genetically modified organisms (which repeatedly came out as “orgasms”). The 1.4% swing that unseated him at the 2010 election was fairly typical for Victoria, which collectively swung to Labor by 1.0%. The successful Labor candidate was Laura Smyth, a lawyer for Holding Redlich whom VexNews linked to the “Andrew Giles/Alan Griffin sub-faction of the Socialist Left”.
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Categories: Federal Election 2013, Federal Politics 2010-
*Is still trying to work out who and why internal labor polls would be leaked to Frank*
by WeWantPaul on Jun 11, 2012 at 7:30 pm
briefly – I’ve also felt disappointment that since 2007 the Govt. has praised Howard far too much. It has helped perpetuate the myth of Costello being a magical economic guru and Howard as an icon of a PM. Labor continues to do it to make a distinction between Abbott and Howard but I think it’s wrong. Howard did get quite a bit wrong but that is all forgotten. Howard never missed a chance to rant against Keating.
by BH on Jun 11, 2012 at 7:32 pm
guytaur
A big thank you.In the wild west the weather is so crap the digital signal where I am is a unavailable.
by poroti on Jun 11, 2012 at 7:32 pm
“Biggest problem with the media today is the conflation of fact and opinion” Gordon Brown.
by BK on Jun 11, 2012 at 7:32 pm
bemused
glad you are paying attention
by Schnappi on Jun 11, 2012 at 7:32 pm
Gussie, we used to throw the prisoners a 12 course banquet, starting with Birdnest soup and finishing with shark finns soup
by The Finnigans on Jun 11, 2012 at 7:33 pm
wwp
paul
with respect frank aint a doughboy
and yes it is fed not state
btw why the interest in our frank?
by gusface on Jun 11, 2012 at 7:33 pm
BH 2332
Yes, thanks for reminding me. It was obviously a political necessity at the time. Point taken.
I’m sure other posters will now accuse me of bagging Swan, and not being a good Treasurer, which I’m not. I just felt Tanner would’ve been better.
I think I need a drink – of strong coffee!!!!
by feeney on Jun 11, 2012 at 7:33 pm
You meanz he has stopped farting
by The Finnigans on Jun 11, 2012 at 7:33 pm
@BBCNormanS: Gordon Brown says two key problems in press are 1.Conflation of fact and opinion 2. Defending families like Dowlers #leveson
by guytaur on Jun 11, 2012 at 7:33 pm
gus,
I’m sure Showsy’s dream are luminescent.
It helps him to find his little friend at the end of the day.
by Greensborough Growler on Jun 11, 2012 at 7:34 pm
Gussy
Lucid dunna mean wet
by daretotread on Jun 11, 2012 at 7:34 pm
finns
swmbo has scored a 10/10 with this book
mega refs and links
my heart is singing
and my brainbox zinging
by gusface on Jun 11, 2012 at 7:34 pm
Agreed. I make no judgments on Rudd as a person, only his capacity as a leader and the known flaws of his time as leader.
The anti Gillard mob OTOH…
by confessions on Jun 11, 2012 at 7:35 pm
GG, he was hoping it was wet, but unfortunately it was short circuited
by The Finnigans on Jun 11, 2012 at 7:35 pm
dare tot read
i am evil with the latins
by gusface on Jun 11, 2012 at 7:35 pm
gusface
My opinion of the poms went down immeasurably after I found out what happened after the Battle of Agincourt .
by poroti on Jun 11, 2012 at 7:37 pm
@BBCPeterHunt: Leveson: Gordon Brown — we’re moving from the ordinary web to the semantic web. #Leveson #hacking
by guytaur on Jun 11, 2012 at 7:38 pm
Just for bemused I tip 53-47
by Schnappi on Jun 11, 2012 at 7:38 pm
What time is Qanda tonight? 8.30?
by confessions on Jun 11, 2012 at 7:38 pm
Is this a fact or an opinion?
by ShowsOn on Jun 11, 2012 at 7:38 pm
confessions
9.35
by Schnappi on Jun 11, 2012 at 7:39 pm
G.G., you’re being a total hypocrite again!
Post about issues rather than people, else you will be banned until further notice.
by ShowsOn on Jun 11, 2012 at 7:39 pm
i do. he’s a megalomaniac
by The Finnigans on Jun 11, 2012 at 7:40 pm
ShowsOn
by poroti on Jun 11, 2012 at 7:40 pm
poroti, mine is after the 1st Opium War
by The Finnigans on Jun 11, 2012 at 7:41 pm
Schnappi:
Thank you. Plenty of time to cook dinner.
by confessions on Jun 11, 2012 at 7:42 pm
Shows
are you role playing for tonites
if so, add a slave on a horse
by gusface on Jun 11, 2012 at 7:43 pm
Showsy,
You’re Dreaming!
Here’s your theme song.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2PMQV7cymBU
by Greensborough Growler on Jun 11, 2012 at 7:47 pm
by guytaur on Jun 11, 2012 at 7:47 pm
finns
after julius stirred em up
who can blame em
by gusface on Jun 11, 2012 at 7:48 pm
In both Rugby’s you get points for falling over.
Kudos to them for making falling over a skill.
by deflationite on Jun 11, 2012 at 7:48 pm
Finns,
And a leaker.
by Greensborough Growler on Jun 11, 2012 at 7:48 pm
feeney – I won’t be bagging you as I agree that Tanner would have been a better front man as Treasurer. We can’t take anything away from Swannie tho in the way that he’s handled the portfolio. He’s been fantastic and a Canberran friend who worked in Treasury (high up for years until retirement) told us that he is well regarded there and is a very hardworker. Swannie has also been a really hard worker within the Labor Party in Qld. Had Keating not preceded him as Labor Treasurer there would probably be no comments now. John Dawkins, John Kerin, and I can’t remember the one who was done in by that leaked letter in 1996, !!! Swannie beats all of them but without PJK’s flair.
Tanner had a clearer, cut through style but he’s not all clean skin as a few Vic members may be able to tell you. He had his days of backstabbing, etc. and his fights within the left but he would have made a terrific Treasurer.
by BH on Jun 11, 2012 at 7:48 pm
Gordon Brown is impressively lucid and passionate.
by BK on Jun 11, 2012 at 7:48 pm
Confessions
Have you ever actually MET Rudd?
I mean why do you hate him so?
by daretotread on Jun 11, 2012 at 7:49 pm
Stop talking about me, my wife Doris will get jealous and you’ll be banned!
by ShowsOn on Jun 11, 2012 at 7:50 pm
Brown Now speaking about privacy invasion regarding his family.
by guytaur on Jun 11, 2012 at 7:51 pm
I’m sure you didn’t mean it, but thanks for the punch in the solar plexus.
The only way I’m getting through losing my family year on year to cancer, is by telling myself it’s better that I have had an opportunity to say goodbye, rather than my family being blown to bits in Iraq or Afhganistan.
We seem to have bought first class tickets.
by kezza2 on Jun 11, 2012 at 7:51 pm
briefly, you are brilliant. You totally get it.
by deflationite on Jun 11, 2012 at 7:52 pm
This is harrowing stuff at Leveson.
by BK on Jun 11, 2012 at 7:53 pm
BH
In Qld I think Swan made a bit of a mistake very, very early in his time as Treasurer by being felt to talk down the economy. He rapidly learned not to do this but I suspect was a bit of a false move. Oddly enough it is exactly the same mistake Abbott and co are making
by daretotread on Jun 11, 2012 at 7:53 pm
Th eFinnigans
Another brick in the wall of shame. As a Sheepen this battle narrated by the worst ever pronounciation of Maori was a booo yeah for the “natives” .Oh and Australian colonies also sent forces to this battle.Cameron was a hero from the Crimean war.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zyeCbn8u0og
by poroti on Jun 11, 2012 at 7:54 pm
DTT
when you wish to make an emphasis, try this:
and at the end
with no spaces.
Your capital YELLING is too loud.
by kezza2 on Jun 11, 2012 at 7:55 pm
deflationite
Kudos to aerial ping pong giving points for missing the goal
by poroti on Jun 11, 2012 at 7:56 pm
Amazing that ABC24 isn’t covering Leveson – this is the most riveting session of all.
by Lyne Lady on Jun 11, 2012 at 7:56 pm
Well there was a big issue at that time, inflation was very high thanks to reckless Coalition spending, so interest rates had to be increased. But then the GFC hit which changed all that and interest rates had to come down to stimulate the economy.
If anything, the mistake was not pointing out how high spending and gone in the second half of the Howard years.
In the very first budget Labor should’ve cut spending and even increased some taxes, and said this was necessary because of the Coalition’s reckless economic policy.
For example, Labor has now means tested lots of things like the private health insurance rebate, family tax benefit. Why didn’t they just do that immediately in their very first budget and said the Coalition’s spending forced them to do it?
by ShowsOn on Jun 11, 2012 at 7:58 pm
Lyne Lady
Yes. Amazing!
by BK on Jun 11, 2012 at 7:58 pm
kezza
No, I didn’t mean any harm. I’m so sorry.
I wish I could send you more strength, but you said you’re a fighter, so perhaps my puny asistance wouldn’t help you anyway. :sympathy emoticon:
by lizzie on Jun 11, 2012 at 8:00 pm
bk and LL agree totally
by guytaur on Jun 11, 2012 at 8:01 pm