Seat of the week: La Trobe
This week’s better-late-than-never installment of Seat of the Week brings us to La Trobe, one of two crucial gains for Labor in Victoria at the 2010 election which helped redressed losses in New South Wales and especially Queensland. The defeated Liberal member, Jason Wood, will attempt to recover the seat from Labor’s Laura Smyth at the next election after winning a preselection ballot earlier this week.
La Trobe has covered Melbourne’s eastern fringe since its creation with the enlargement of parliament in 1949, drifting south-eastwards over time from its starting point of Dandenong and Croydon. It now consists of two rapidly growing outer Melbourne areas separated by the Dandenong Ranges – Boronia and Ferntree Gully in the north, and the Berwick area in the south – and extends eastwards through Belgrave to Emerald, Cockatoo and Gembrook. Labor’s strength around Belgrave is countered by Liberal dominance around Berwick. The redistribution that will take effect at the next election has effected a swap of about 16,000 voters around Bayswater, who have been transferred to Aston, for a similar number in Narre Warren, who were previously in Holt. Another 3000 voters around Pakenham have been transferred to McMillan. Antony Green calculates that the changes have boosted Labor’s margin from 0.9% to 1.7%.
Along with other seats in Melbourne’s outer suburban “sandbelt”, La Trobe played a decisive role in the election of the Whitlam government in 1972, falling to Labor for the first time with a 10.2% swing. It swung almost as heavily the other way when the Liberals recovered it in 1975, but returned to the Labor fold in 1980 when Peter Milton defeated Liberal member Marshall Baillieu (part of the clan that includes the current Premier). An unfavourable redistribution in 1990 combined with the statewide anti-Labor tsunami at that year’s election to deliver a 1.4% victory to Liberal candidate Bob Charles. The seat had a remarkably stable time of it on Charles’s watch, staying with the Liberals by 2.4% in 1993, 1.4% in 1996, 1.0% in 1998 and 3.7% in 2001.
With Charles’s retirement at the 2004 election, La Trobe emerged as a contest between Liberal candidate Jason Wood, a police officer who had worked in counter-terrorism and organised crime units, and Labor’s Susan Davies, who held the since-abolished state seat of Gippsland West as an independent from 1997 to 2002. The result was an easy win for Wood, who overcame the loss of Charles’s personal vote to pick up a 2.1% swing that was concentrated in the heavily mortgaged suburbs nearer the city. Wood had won preselection with the backing of the Kennett faction after cutting his teeth as candidate for Holt in 2001. It was noted at the time he had “been a member of Greenpeace for longer than he has been a member of the Liberal Party”, and he went on to embarrass his party ahead of the 2007 election by issuing a brochure that failed to sing from its song sheet on nuclear power.
Wood went into the 2007 election with a 5.8% margin, of which only 0.5% was left after a swing that was most conspicuous in the areas that had moved to the Liberals in 2004. He was promoted to parliamentary secretary for justice and public security when Malcolm Turnbull assumed the Liberal leadership in September 2008, despite the embarrassment he had recently suffered after stammering his way through a parliamentary speech on genetically modified organisms (which repeatedly came out as “orgasms”). The 1.4% swing that unseated him at the 2010 election was fairly typical for Victoria, which collectively swung to Labor by 1.0%. The successful Labor candidate was Laura Smyth, a lawyer for Holding Redlich whom VexNews linked to the “Andrew Giles/Alan Griffin sub-faction of the Socialist Left”.
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Categories: Federal Election 2013, Federal Politics 2010-
bemused,
I get silly at this time of night, so please forgive meee…
by fiona on Jun 10, 2012 at 12:12 am
Oh FFS mate, as if the internal party polling is different from the public polling!
In fact that is the hilarious thing about Rudd’s demise. Apparently he had to go because of ONE bad internal Labor poll, even though he was still leading the public polls!
But for Gillard the standard has been reversed. She has been way behind in every public poll for the last 14 or so months, but apparently that is OK because Gusface seems to think there is some private polls that show everything going fine!
GUSFACE IS A CLOWN!
by ShowsOn on Jun 10, 2012 at 12:13 am
further
what measure
the 2pp
primary vote
ppm
by gusface on Jun 10, 2012 at 12:13 am
ShowsOff,
SpeedSillyness can take place anywhere it likes and EVEN without your imprimatur.
Solly
by fiona on Jun 10, 2012 at 12:13 am
Gillard being a team ‘player’ I think means doing as the factions and her bosses desire. We saw how quickly she went to water and hung Bowen out to appease her masters and the only things that put in and keep her in her seat warmer position.
Is where Rudd met strife, tried to have power in the hands of the elected representatives.
by Thomas Paine. on Jun 10, 2012 at 12:14 am
shows
rudd was deposed cos he was a farqwit
he said as much in therese’s mea culpa
by gusface on Jun 10, 2012 at 12:15 am
Well wouldn’t it be fucking brilliant if Gillard could get a poll where the 2pp was at least a statistical tie, rather than the last 14 months of polls that have had her behind, sometimes by huge margins?
How about that Gussy?
by ShowsOn on Jun 10, 2012 at 12:15 am
ShowsOn @ 449
That’s what started it.
by bemused on Jun 10, 2012 at 12:16 am
Oh shit! Sorry, that’s right it is more important for the Labor leader to be a polite person than actually have the ability to put Labor in an election winning position.
Sorry! My fault! I thought Labor was at its best when it actually was capable of winning an election, but clearly it is better having nice Opposition leaders.
by ShowsOn on Jun 10, 2012 at 12:17 am
aha
right
so jg is slowly pegging back the margins
against incredible anti media exposure and whiteanters
she has just finished some major social engineering
and shows wants to throw her out for rudd
using your logic shows
BRING BACK CHIFLEY
by gusface on Jun 10, 2012 at 12:19 am
ShowsOn @ 451
Just refresh my memory showy, isn’t gus the goose who forecast a Labor victory in NSW?
by bemused on Jun 10, 2012 at 12:19 am
SHOWS
YOU FORGET jg WON 2010
OR DOES THE PAIN STILL HURT?
by gusface on Jun 10, 2012 at 12:20 am
FANTASTIC FIONA AND BEMUSED I AM SO HAPPY FOR YOU BOTH!
PLEASE TELL ME WHERE TO SEND THE COMPLIMENTARY SPEED DATING FRIDAY PAVLOVA THAT YOU CAN EAT BEFORE CONSUMMATING YOUR DALLIANCE.
by ShowsOn on Jun 10, 2012 at 12:20 am
bemused
did you just call an WAAAAmbulance?
by gusface on Jun 10, 2012 at 12:21 am
Why does the age deliberately ignore the 274 not mentioned.
http://www.theage.com.au/national/afps-links-to-people-smugglers-queried-20120609-2030v.html
by Schnappi on Jun 10, 2012 at 12:22 am
2PP vs Satisfaction Ratings via Possum
Gillard:
http://desmond.yfrog.com/Himg876/scaled.php?server=876&filename=o4ze.png&res=iphone
Hawke and Keating:
http://desmond.yfrog.com/Himg858/scaled.php?server=858&filename=7kn.png&res=iphone
Howard Mk 1 and Mk 2
http://desmond.yfrog.com/Himg876/scaled.php?server=876&filename=klcr.png&res=iphone
In short: in order for Gillard to turn things around for the ALP, she has to dramatically improve her satisfaction rating. Very difficult to do when the electorate has many firm beliefs about her which refers to the publicly cited qualitative research in regards to knifing Rudd, causing the uncertainty associated with hung parliament via a poor election campaign, getting into an alliance with the Greens, lying about the carbon tax etc etc etc as well as more extrmely unfair personal judgements such as her voice, appearence, partner etc
by spur212 on Jun 10, 2012 at 12:22 am
Oh come off it! Labor losing 12 seats after 1 term was a horrendous result!
The fact Labor is in a minority government is what has created the impression that it has no authority or credibility.
I completely accept that things would be much easier for Gillard if she was in majority government, but her inability to win is what has made things so hard for her this term.
For you to equate Gillard forming a minority government with Rudd winning majority government on a 5% 2pp swing is hilarious!
by ShowsOn on Jun 10, 2012 at 12:23 am
stop the verbal
BTW
2007 was a drovers dog election
JG won a real one in 2010
by gusface on Jun 10, 2012 at 12:25 am
What a total wank! No first term government has lost their subsequent election in Australia for 81 years! They are the easiest re-election campaigns to win because most voters are still sceptical of the other side that was recently turfed out.
Yet Gillard led Labor to lose its parliamentary majority!!!
by ShowsOn on Jun 10, 2012 at 12:28 am
and that is what kills the ruddista’s
by gusface on Jun 10, 2012 at 12:28 am
shows
you and spur go for the false equivalence a lot
too bad
2012 aint kansas, toto
by gusface on Jun 10, 2012 at 12:29 am
Well yes I see that it isn’t completely fair to compare the 2010 campaign with other re-election campaigns. I mean the Liberals did go through THREE different leaders between the 2007 and 2010 elections, so really Labor should’ve INCREASED its majority to reflect the disarray on the opposition side.
So that just makes Gillard’s performance at the 2010 election even worse.
by ShowsOn on Jun 10, 2012 at 12:32 am
shows
stop regurgitating goats balls (tho admittedly, that may be hard)
give me an equivalent time in ozpolitics to match now
*crickets*
by gusface on Jun 10, 2012 at 12:36 am
gusface @ 463
Nope, just raised the issue of the credibility of your forecasting record.
Care to stand on your record?
by bemused on Jun 10, 2012 at 12:36 am
bemused
just my loyalty to labor
something you sadly lack
by gusface on Jun 10, 2012 at 12:38 am
WTF are you talking about? Labor was in minority government in 1942, it then won in 1943 on its biggest landslide of all time. It got something like 58% of the 2pp vote:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australian_federal_election,_1943
At the moment Labor is headed for a landslide LOSS of around 53 or 54% against it!
As usual you have no point.
by ShowsOn on Jun 10, 2012 at 12:39 am
Gus
I honestly don’t care who the ALP leader is. All I care about is making sure the maniac who is leading the Coalition (and that’s exactly what he is) doesn’t become PM
by spur212 on Jun 10, 2012 at 12:40 am
oh thats right
we iz in the middle of a world war
FMD
showy u iz drawing the long bow now
1/10
by gusface on Jun 10, 2012 at 12:41 am
No, you aren’t right about anything.
You have no point, so you are left to hide behind your inability to type proper sentences.
The hilarious thing is that when Gillard accepts she can’t win and resigns and is replaced, hopefully by Rudd, you’ll just support whoever the new leader is and you will finally agree that Gillard couldn’t win.
So really we aren’t arguing about anything because you’ll just support whoever is leader. You are basically the same as Frank, but Frank is a better typist.
by ShowsOn on Jun 10, 2012 at 12:47 am
hmmm
resort to ad hom
#winning
by gusface on Jun 10, 2012 at 12:48 am
I like the backhanded slap to Wilkie, but I think it’s telling that the PM didn’t anticipate his reaction. She normally is very aware of when there is an incentive for someone to make such a political move.
by spur212 on Jun 10, 2012 at 12:51 am
spur
sorry for late reply
I think the political landscape has changed quite markedly
JG will win the next election- just
rudd was a great pm
for those times
its a whole new ballgame
by gusface on Jun 10, 2012 at 12:54 am
gusface @ 474
You fling false accusations around like confetti.
by bemused on Jun 10, 2012 at 12:56 am
So when you say “just”, do you mean another minority government?
When should we expect Labor’s poll numbers to start improving?
Or are you crazy enough to think that Labor will go in to the election campaign with a primary vote in the low 30s and still win?
by ShowsOn on Jun 10, 2012 at 12:58 am
gusface @ 479
Nope, you got in first on those.
I don’t know why you bother, you aren’t even good at it.
by bemused on Jun 10, 2012 at 12:58 am
Thanks, Doyley @ 204. Needs to be said often. Unions are the life blood of Labor.
Working people need both. And yes, both need to adapt so that small business people and professionals who need them too will join more freely.
by PatriciaWA on Jun 10, 2012 at 12:58 am
ShowsOn & spur212
I am off to bed now.
I will leave the defence of sanity to you.
by bemused on Jun 10, 2012 at 1:00 am
It would be interesting if it did end up another minority gov
3 katterites
2 greenies
plus oakey +windsor
what a vibrant democracy
by gusface on Jun 10, 2012 at 1:01 am
you love verballing
is it a prerequisite for goat castrators?
by gusface on Jun 10, 2012 at 1:03 am
I think anyone who is calling the result of the next election now is very brave.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jun 10, 2012 at 1:06 am
OK, it’s only Gussy, I can handle it.
by ShowsOn on Jun 10, 2012 at 1:06 am
FFS! How can a QUESTION count as verballing?
See these things: ??????????????????????????????????
They are QUESTION MARKS. If you write a question and put a “?” at the end, it means you are asking a QUESTION.
If you can’t answer the question that is fine.
by ShowsOn on Jun 10, 2012 at 1:08 am
Of course it is impossible to predict exactly what will happen, but it is crazy to say that Labor is in a better position than the Coalition at this stage.
It isn’t like voters are going to wake up on the morning of the election and completely discount how they have been feeling for the last few years. And we know over the last 18 months or so that most voters have been very annoyed with the minority Labor government, which it seems reasonable to predict will result in the Coalition getting a higher vote than they did last time.
by ShowsOn on Jun 10, 2012 at 1:10 am
shows
your only comback was a gvt during ww2
see the world has changed since 2007
once you make that leap
then you will understand your false equivalence
I await that moment….
by gusface on Jun 10, 2012 at 1:12 am
Paywalled to me
@peterrolfe@rolfep
Sunday Herald Sun exclusive #springsthttp://m.heraldsun.com.au/news/more-news/exclusive-secret-ryan-tape-emerges/story-fn7x8me2-1226390070731
by Schnappi on Jun 10, 2012 at 1:13 am
gawd
paul kelly or shannas couldnt have said it better
by gusface on Jun 10, 2012 at 1:13 am
It would be very interesting if Labor decided to change leaders before the next election, Mr Rudd may not get even get a look-in. Unless of course the ALP decide to put him in place for the election due to his good polls, and they go on to win, then once again replace him shortly afterwards for Gillard so they can achieve their legislative goals. :lol;
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jun 10, 2012 at 1:14 am
Bullshit. I first compared and contrasted 2010 and 2007.
Well yeah Gussy, including Labor being FAR LESS POPULAR!
Well it would be good if you made a leap to having an argument.
What makes you so confident Gillard can turn it around when her polls have gone nowhere for over a year?
How much longer does Gillard have to prove herself? If Labor is still stuck in the mid 40s by December, would that be time to get rid of her?
Surely Labor won’t do what the Coalition did in 2007 when they let Howard walk straight into an election loss?
by ShowsOn on Jun 10, 2012 at 1:15 am
I have
A JG win
whether its a minority Gvt is the Q
by gusface on Jun 10, 2012 at 1:15 am
another false equivalence
by gusface on Jun 10, 2012 at 1:16 am