Seat of the week: La Trobe
This week’s better-late-than-never installment of Seat of the Week brings us to La Trobe, one of two crucial gains for Labor in Victoria at the 2010 election which helped redressed losses in New South Wales and especially Queensland. The defeated Liberal member, Jason Wood, will attempt to recover the seat from Labor’s Laura Smyth at the next election after winning a preselection ballot earlier this week.
La Trobe has covered Melbourne’s eastern fringe since its creation with the enlargement of parliament in 1949, drifting south-eastwards over time from its starting point of Dandenong and Croydon. It now consists of two rapidly growing outer Melbourne areas separated by the Dandenong Ranges – Boronia and Ferntree Gully in the north, and the Berwick area in the south – and extends eastwards through Belgrave to Emerald, Cockatoo and Gembrook. Labor’s strength around Belgrave is countered by Liberal dominance around Berwick. The redistribution that will take effect at the next election has effected a swap of about 16,000 voters around Bayswater, who have been transferred to Aston, for a similar number in Narre Warren, who were previously in Holt. Another 3000 voters around Pakenham have been transferred to McMillan. Antony Green calculates that the changes have boosted Labor’s margin from 0.9% to 1.7%.
Along with other seats in Melbourne’s outer suburban “sandbelt”, La Trobe played a decisive role in the election of the Whitlam government in 1972, falling to Labor for the first time with a 10.2% swing. It swung almost as heavily the other way when the Liberals recovered it in 1975, but returned to the Labor fold in 1980 when Peter Milton defeated Liberal member Marshall Baillieu (part of the clan that includes the current Premier). An unfavourable redistribution in 1990 combined with the statewide anti-Labor tsunami at that year’s election to deliver a 1.4% victory to Liberal candidate Bob Charles. The seat had a remarkably stable time of it on Charles’s watch, staying with the Liberals by 2.4% in 1993, 1.4% in 1996, 1.0% in 1998 and 3.7% in 2001.
With Charles’s retirement at the 2004 election, La Trobe emerged as a contest between Liberal candidate Jason Wood, a police officer who had worked in counter-terrorism and organised crime units, and Labor’s Susan Davies, who held the since-abolished state seat of Gippsland West as an independent from 1997 to 2002. The result was an easy win for Wood, who overcame the loss of Charles’s personal vote to pick up a 2.1% swing that was concentrated in the heavily mortgaged suburbs nearer the city. Wood had won preselection with the backing of the Kennett faction after cutting his teeth as candidate for Holt in 2001. It was noted at the time he had “been a member of Greenpeace for longer than he has been a member of the Liberal Party”, and he went on to embarrass his party ahead of the 2007 election by issuing a brochure that failed to sing from its song sheet on nuclear power.
Wood went into the 2007 election with a 5.8% margin, of which only 0.5% was left after a swing that was most conspicuous in the areas that had moved to the Liberals in 2004. He was promoted to parliamentary secretary for justice and public security when Malcolm Turnbull assumed the Liberal leadership in September 2008, despite the embarrassment he had recently suffered after stammering his way through a parliamentary speech on genetically modified organisms (which repeatedly came out as “orgasms”). The 1.4% swing that unseated him at the 2010 election was fairly typical for Victoria, which collectively swung to Labor by 1.0%. The successful Labor candidate was Laura Smyth, a lawyer for Holding Redlich whom VexNews linked to the “Andrew Giles/Alan Griffin sub-faction of the Socialist Left”.
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Categories: Federal Election 2013, Federal Politics 2010-
I keep hoping that any recapitalised bank will have as it’s first order of business the turfing out of the management team that got them into the mess in the first place. I haven’t noticed it much myself. Has anyone else got any examples?
If not, then it’s just another example of the kleptocrats getting away with it again.
by C@tmomma on Jun 10, 2012 at 8:27 am
If the history of the last few Decembers leading into election years is any guide, Abbott will be replaced in December this year.
by confessions on Jun 10, 2012 at 8:28 am
On the gay hate stuff, I note on my Facebook feed this morning that it is 23 years – nearly a quarter of a century – since the first gay couple legally wed in Denmark.
The next time someone wants to suggest that gay marriage leads to:
* polygamy
* people marrying children
* people marrying animals
* the destruction of the family
* dysfunctional children
* general breakdown of society
… just remind them none of these things have happened in nearly a quarter of a century in Denmark. In fact (I don’t know whether this is still the case, but I read this a couple of years ago) since full marriage equality was introduced, divorce rates have actually decreased. Less people might be marrying, but those who do are sticking with it for the long haul.
Rather than damage marriage, it seems the Danish suddenly take marriage as an institution a lot more seriously than they did before …
by Danny Lewis on Jun 10, 2012 at 8:29 am
C@tmomma: bloody freezing here in the Barossa this morning.
by Danny Lewis on Jun 10, 2012 at 8:31 am
The Finnigans
While the snow in sheepens falls mainly on the trains. The whole front of the train starts disappearing @ about 0:50 sec
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6acPX_00M9Q
by poroti on Jun 10, 2012 at 8:32 am
I am hoping that today’s Insiders illustrates the old maxim about a week being a long time in politics.
by Bushfire Bill on Jun 10, 2012 at 8:34 am
C@tmomma
I’ve just been into the township to get the paper – it’s 1 degree outside.
by BK on Jun 10, 2012 at 8:35 am
spur212 @# 504
”The HSU scandal has taken out Shorten, Crean, Combet and (god forbid) Swan as leadership contenders.
The only two left are Rudd and Smith and Smith simply doesn’t have the authority or the style to turn things around. It would be a bit like making Swan PM.”
This seems a rather erroneous post.
No explanation for the “exclusion of Shorten et al so I must assume that it is just wishful hoping by spur to limit the listof possible leaders for the benefit of his hobby horse.
I would think that Rudd would be extremely lucky to make the list of the first 10 that Labor would pick to be leader because of his demonstrated short comings and lack of loyalty.
If Rudd somehow made it back to leader I believe that a rather large component if not the majority of the current cabinet would refuse to serve. This behavior would make it impossible for any party to retain or gain the Treasury Benches.
Over all I think that the argument to bring Rudd back to the leadership of the ALP has the sole aim of ensuring that the conservatives will win the next election.
by Ratsars on Jun 10, 2012 at 8:37 am
Combet on Agenda has just described Abbott as totally gutless for going around the country scaring the pants off workers and pensioners about the carbon tax.
by BK on Jun 10, 2012 at 8:38 am
Good morning all.
C@tmomma, it’s not wet here but cold enough to freeze the balls off a brass monkey. The sun is trying to get through the thick fog and when it does it will warm things up a bit.
by janice2 on Jun 10, 2012 at 8:41 am
Over at IA, it looks as if the Libs are abandoning Kathy Jackson in the same way that Abbott ultimately dumped that One Nation-Hanson complainant in that court case.
http://www.independentaustralia.net/2012/politics/mystification-at-jacksonville/
An interesting letter in the Comments mentions Kathy’s close connections to a few key Labor players, and how Labor would probably prefer Thomson to quietly go away.
I’m starting to think his statement to parliament is on the level.
by Gorgeous Dunny on Jun 10, 2012 at 8:43 am
Combet has just laid the gauntlet down to Abbott. “Come 1 July we’re coming after you to hold you to account for all your lies and deceit.” Combet said he can’t wait for the time to come.
by BK on Jun 10, 2012 at 8:44 am
As they should. Abbott and the coalition have led a dreadful campaign of deceit and fear.
by confessions on Jun 10, 2012 at 8:52 am
Combet was terrific this morning.
by BK on Jun 10, 2012 at 8:53 am
Onya, Greg! Totally gutless, unwilling to face the consequences of his words and deeds, picking on dying heroes and women who dare gainsay him, Abbott is and has been at least since his affair at age 19.
by OzPol Tragic on Jun 10, 2012 at 8:54 am
OPT
Combet really meant what he said this morning. He made it abundantly clear that they are going after him and his outlandish tactics.
by BK on Jun 10, 2012 at 8:56 am
Suddenly QandA is looking more interesting. Emerson and Combet doing very good attacks to get message across. I expect the PM will be the same where appropriate. Starting with the challenge where is Tone. Scared to face questions from the Australian public?
by guytaur on Jun 10, 2012 at 8:58 am
OK, so we can all agree that Winter has well and truly arrived.
Winter Fun Fact: My son loves chopping weood from fallen trees around the place. But we don’t have a log fire! We supply our friends and the family GP.
As far as Insiders goes this morning, it appears they’ve let Piers Akerman crawl back up out of the News Ltd cesspit to sit on the Right seat and obfuscate, prevaricate, bloviate, smear the government and probably downright lie. I Tweeted to Tony Bourke, who is on for the long interview, that he should follow Dr Emerson’s example and not put up with any BS from Barrie Cassidy.
I have to go to a meeting now but will keep my fingers crossed for Moar ‘Direct Action’ from Tony wrt the ABC gossip trolls.
by C@tmomma on Jun 10, 2012 at 8:59 am
Danny Lewis
Similar to all the dire “end of civilisation as we know it” claims about the sort of drug laws the Portugese passed about a decade back. Post GFC they have confirmed that it was not the pot smoking ectsasy takers that would “end civilisation as we know it” but the cigar smoking Fonesca drinking “pinstripes”.
by poroti on Jun 10, 2012 at 8:59 am
And that would be ‘wood’. I’ma blaming cold fingers for that one.
by C@tmomma on Jun 10, 2012 at 8:59 am
Is there a link to Greg Combet on Agenda?
Thanks.
by psyclaw on Jun 10, 2012 at 9:00 am
janice2,
The rain probably won’t get to you because it’s coastal.
by C@tmomma on Jun 10, 2012 at 9:00 am
The first thing the ALP needs to do is to make being a member of a local branch more pertinent to policy. If local branches are simply a ready-to-go cheer squad for whatever movement the ruling group in the caucus are up to in government or opposition, it’s not hard to see why they would wither on the vine.
The second thing they need to do is to develop a clear set of principles around which about a third to 40% of the population overlapping with their tradtional supporters can strongly agree. If the entire policy of the party is a moveable feast, a mere adaptation to the latest meme being run by Murdoch or whoever replaces him and his family when the drop off the twig/fall into economic disrepute — in short, if they are not “about” something distinctive and worthy in the eyes of a substantial minority, then all they can be about is empty football team tribalism, whatever the more vocal members of the tribe think they are up to.
It’s that sense of connectedness with an idea set that allows a party to ride out vicissitudes with its leading personnel, to get people to give up a night each month to attend a meeting, to speak up in their workplaces, community organisations and family and friend circle for what the party is doing rather than stay silent. If there is no matter on which a party supporter can declare the aderence of the party to principle, what can a loyal supporter do but stay silent or at best bag the rivals as worse?
Having that loyal band of supporters who perceive themselves and the people they care about as having a personal stake in the standing of their party and the defence of its policies means that when the more flighty sections of the populace want something done and see the other mob as of doubtful value, they can come to you for negotiate because you can deliver policy. That keeps the base interested.
Now personally I don’t see “the union connection” as today being all that salient in an organisational sense. Once upon a time, when the ALP really was seen as part and parcel of the struggle of workers organisations to resist employer-regime attacks on their rights it had existential meaning. Today the union block votes are another plaything in factional politics and relate hardly at all to matters of concern amongst the base being reflected in public policy. It also ties the party strongly to the perception of the integrity of individual unions in the wider community. As we saw over HSU, no sooner did the leadership of one union fall into disrepute than it had to be disaffiliated from both the party and the ACTU. And of course, as we have seen, National Conference is not decisive in shaping government policy when the ALP is in office anyway.
If the party wants to preserve the 40% union block vote, then it should probably reserve that for people who have been financial members of affiliated unions for at least 3 years and can be elected by a direct vote of all party members who are also members of affiliated unions good standing in the state branch as a union delegate. But of course, the next step is to make National Conference key to what the party does in power rather than mere “input”.
by Fran Barlow on Jun 10, 2012 at 9:01 am
[Julia Gillard whipped out her knitting bag during a lunch with The Sunday Telegraph at Kirribilli. The knitting bag, a lime green affair with silver lining , has a travelling tag stamped "Prime Minister".
"I'm on a smock coat - for a two-year-old - with quite a complex pattern at the top which requires you to count stitches in eight-stitch lots," she explained.
Read more: http://www.news.com.au/national/home-knitting-with-julia-gillard-were-in-stitches/story-e6frfkvr-1226390180806#ixzz1xL9DLVF0
ha ha ha ha ha what a joke. What advisor thought this would be good lol
by rummel on Jun 10, 2012 at 9:01 am
guytaur@666,
Getting softballs from Andrew this morning.
by C@tmomma on Jun 10, 2012 at 9:02 am
BK
Goooo Greg Combat (sic.) .What program was he on,I’d love to see it ?
by poroti on Jun 10, 2012 at 9:04 am
Piers back on Insiders?
He never says anything worth hearing.
by confessions on Jun 10, 2012 at 9:05 am
poroti
Combet was interviewed by Peter van Onsolen on Sky Agenda this morning.
by BK on Jun 10, 2012 at 9:05 am
yay piers akerman is on insiders. balance somewhat established for the first time ion weeks.
by rummel on Jun 10, 2012 at 9:07 am
rummel@673,
What a nasty piece of work you can be at times. Pick on a Prime Ministerial slice of reality beyond the day to day appearance of her in general political life, and attempt to deride it and smear her with your derision.
I know you probably feel pleased with your little self for that one. I think you have just diminished yourself further in my eyes.
What’s next, a Madam deFarge allusion?
Typical Liberals. As deep as the pond scum they are.
by C@tmomma on Jun 10, 2012 at 9:07 am
With cmments re spurr
Must be a liberal
What have i missed see, no connection to any thingmentioned
Re those members of gov. In any way thst would stop them fom being in the future
Pm.’
Lol thats quitr funny
by my say on Jun 10, 2012 at 9:08 am
‘I Knit and I Vote Labor’.
Sounds much better to me than ‘I Shoot and I Vote’.
by C@tmomma on Jun 10, 2012 at 9:09 am
What a surprise Akerman doing fear and loathing on refugees
by guytaur on Jun 10, 2012 at 9:10 am
Pies has not lost any of his grubbiness!
by BK on Jun 10, 2012 at 9:11 am
BK
Thanks muchly.
by poroti on Jun 10, 2012 at 9:11 am
What’s wrong with the PM knitting?
Sorry, can’t see what the outrage is all about.
by confessions on Jun 10, 2012 at 9:11 am
Rummell is a tru liberal.
To brighton up what would oherwise be a beautiful sunny 9 degrees here.
I have a friend who cuts ackerman out of the paper what ever day it is put hi m
His writings in an envelope puts a stamp on it and posts if back to news ltd
Hes been doi g that for about 3 years i kid u not.
Perhaps rummel could actually post over at peirs blogg
by my say on Jun 10, 2012 at 9:12 am
get over it. Someone thought it would be a great move getting the PM knitting for the paper. Its not, its funny as and gets very close to at home with Julia lol.
by rummel on Jun 10, 2012 at 9:13 am
Wow Burke actually getting policy questions.
by guytaur on Jun 10, 2012 at 9:14 am
Yes knitting is a creative beautiful thing to , i read some where , that , some royals knit
Garments, kyleigh menoque, ,
by my say on Jun 10, 2012 at 9:15 am
Only someone who has never knat (knitted?) could think that you can take it up just as a stunt.
It’s too complicated for that!
Knitting during meetings is an excellent idea; if you’re a good knitter, you can give your full attention to what’s going on and it keeps your hands busy. Multi tasking at its finest.
I once took up knitting for that very reason – lots of women at staff meetings were doing it, and it seemed an excellent idea – but my incompetence at all things knittery undid me (I can never get my plain to stay plain, it turns into purl when I’m not looking….)
by zoomster on Jun 10, 2012 at 9:16 am
rummel
You have obviously not heard of the Knit In. Thousands of knitters getting together to knit blankets for the less well off around the world.
The PM is doing the same thing for a two year old. Nothing funny about that. Especially when the media gets an interview with the two year olds family and their appreciation for the PM’s efforts.
by guytaur on Jun 10, 2012 at 9:17 am
Yes girls lets join in,
I love all animals i would swdrve my car to miss a wal,aby,
While some people shoot them
I vote labour
Now if we had a blogg as modern as franks we could post our pictures up
I just bought the new rowan book 50 its divine
Love the kaffe fasset designs
Now rummell would not have a clue who that was
by my say on Jun 10, 2012 at 9:19 am
Rummell so your wife cannot knit
Amazing
by my say on Jun 10, 2012 at 9:20 am
I agree with Gillard lol.
by rummel on Jun 10, 2012 at 9:21 am
Actually Samantha Maiden’s verision of the story for the Courier Mail is about Madame Defage. St Kevin was guillotined rather than stabbed in the back apparently. Link to follow.
by Oakeshott Country on Jun 10, 2012 at 9:22 am
Akerman doing AS is he? Good. There’s no political mileage in that one. But it looks as if that’s all they’ve got for the moment.
Wonder what else they’ll find in their barrel scrapings.
by Aguirre on Jun 10, 2012 at 9:23 am
http://www.couriermail.com.au/ipad/gillard-still-watching-her-knitting/story-fn6ck620-1226389939601
by Oakeshott Country on Jun 10, 2012 at 9:25 am
Now the ABC view of Tabloid television interviewing a prostitute.
by guytaur on Jun 10, 2012 at 9:26 am
only someone who is desperate and poll less would put knitting skills front and centre. So gillard is trying to stich up the senior knitting vote with a cheep tricks. Or is she trying to demonstrate some motherly instincts by knitting for a two year old infront of the papers. Its cheep not matter the answer.
by rummel on Jun 10, 2012 at 9:26 am