Newspoll: 54-46 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes reports that Newspoll has the Coalition’s two-party lead at 54-46, unchanged from the previous poll, with the primary votes at 31% for Labor (down one), 44% for the Coalition (down two) and 14% for the Greens (up two). Julia Gillard’s net approval is 4% less bad than last time, her approval up two to 32% and disapproval down two to 58%, while Tony Abbott is respectively up one to 32% and down one to 59%. On preferred prime minister, Gillard is up two to 42% and Abbott is up one to 38%.
It should be noted that most of the polling period (Friday to Sunday) covered what in every state but WA was a long weekend, when an unusually large number of potential respondents would be away from home. Given that absent and postal votes tend to favour the Coalition, it might be anticipated that this would bias the result slightly in favour of Labor, although measures may have been taken to correct for this. As far as I can tell, Newspoll used to abstain from polling over the Queen’s Birthday weekend, but changed this policy last year.
UPDATE: Essential Research has two-party preferred unchanged on last week at 56-44, from primary votes of 49% for the Coalition (down one), 32% for Labor (down one) and 10% for the Greens (steady). The monthly personal ratings have Julia Gillard up a point on approval to 32% and down four on disapproval to 56%, with Tony Abbott down four on approval to a new low of 32% and up one on approval up one to 54%. Funnily enough, Newspoll and Essential concur that both leaders’ approval ratings are 32%. Gillard and Abbott are tied at 37% on preferred prime minister, compared with a 38-37 lead for Gillard last time.
Other questions gauge public trust in various institutions, recording a remarkable drop for the federal parliament from 55% to 22% since the question was last asked in September, and other sharp drops recorded for trade unions (from 39% to 22%), environmental groups (45% to 32%), business groups (38% to 22%) and, for some reason, the Reserve Bank (67% to 49%). The poll also finds 60% disapproving of bringing in overseas workers with only 16% approving, 32% believing labour costs and taxes might drive mining companies away against 49% who expect them to carry on regardless.
UPDATE 2: Roy Morgan makes it three polls in one day by reporting its face-to-face results, which it evidently does on Tuesdays now rather than Fridays. This result is Labor’s best since March, their primary vote up half a point to 33% with the Coalition down 2.5% to 42.5% and the Greens up two to 12.5%. On two-party preferred, the Coalition’s lead has narrowed from 55.5-44.5 to 52-48 on previous election preferences and from 58-42 to 55-45 on respondent-allocated.
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Gus, Labor sniffing magic internal Polling eh!
by rummel on Jun 11, 2012 at 11:04 pm
Always prefer some movement your way in these polls but that’s not unexpected I’d have thought. All within MOE it seems.
by Burgey on Jun 11, 2012 at 11:04 pm
Hey william
where is your yokel put down of me
I iz waiting
☻
by gusface on Jun 11, 2012 at 11:05 pm
Gus,
Will fight tories but no truces – they don’t work and I’ve sworn off them. I’m a renegade. You’ll have to rein me in or I’ll shatter the fragile peace.
by Jake on Jun 11, 2012 at 11:05 pm
I think the interesting take out will be the sat/dis ratings for both leaders. A little movement to Gillard on the PPM is nice, but she needs to bring the dissatisfied number down. Otherwise not much to worry about in the poll for Labor. Consolidate at around the 54/46 we were at before the Slipper/Thommo blow ups in anticipation of converting some waverers in the months after July 1.
by ratsak on Jun 11, 2012 at 11:06 pm
heya rummy
deep throat was spot on again
U #fibs are fuacked
by gusface on Jun 11, 2012 at 11:06 pm
jake
u go to wAR
U WILL LOSE
by gusface on Jun 11, 2012 at 11:06 pm
Time to take Nauru off the table until stable government can be assured to hold our boat people. Time to sign up with Labor and face the whip.
by rummel on Jun 11, 2012 at 11:07 pm
Gusface, I will allow you one final opportunity to start behaving like a grown-up.
by William Bowe on Jun 11, 2012 at 11:08 pm
Gus, thats not very nice.
by rummel on Jun 11, 2012 at 11:08 pm
Confirms labor is coming back. Considering the crap over carbon pricing pretty good position to be in before introduction.
It not over though, on Q&A PM indicated they are going to take on private/public school funding, that should be a doozy. I would have thought they would have wanted to consolidate for the next election.
by fredn on Jun 11, 2012 at 11:08 pm
GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes
#Newspoll Gillard: Approve 32 (+2) Disapprove 58 (-2) #auspol
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by rummel on Jun 11, 2012 at 11:09 pm
Tomorrows news today…
http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/prime-minister-julia-gillard-and-six-ministers-in-brisbane-for-forum-on-australias-place-in-global-economy/story-e6freoof-1226391636669
by Leroy on Jun 11, 2012 at 11:10 pm
rummal
Was listening to a pommy reporter, said the boat people debate makes Australians look small and petty, you and your ilk have a lot to answer for.
by fredn on Jun 11, 2012 at 11:10 pm
2897
William Bowe
Posted Monday, June 11, 2012 at 11:01 pm | Permalink
New thread up for Newspoll. Working off an iPad so can’t be arsed with a link. Thank you for your understanding.
THANK YOU!!
I knew it weren’t me, babe!!!
iPad..sweet but silly.
by crikey whitey on Jun 11, 2012 at 11:10 pm
Thanks Rummel,
That’s what Julia needs, just get the movement going her way on approval.
Abbott’s?
by ratsak on Jun 11, 2012 at 11:11 pm
by rummel on Jun 11, 2012 at 11:11 pm
From previous thread (sort of) – crunching the figures:
ALP 31; LNP 44; Greens 14. That comes to 89% so there’s 11 ‘Other’.
I think the ‘Other’ splits about 50-50 and Greens splits somewhere around 75-25. Somebody might be able to correct me on that.
Anyway, that gives the ALP 31 + 5.5 + 10.5 = 47 exactly.
So the likelihood is that the figures have been rounded a bit and the raw numbers would give something between 46 and 46.5. So on the upper side of 46.
It’s a good result for the ALP. Once it hits 52-48 it’s a contest, as anything around there can be reeled in during an election campaign. They’ve got over a year to do that. I don’t think it’ll take that long.
by Aguirre on Jun 11, 2012 at 11:12 pm
freden
So…….
by rummel on Jun 11, 2012 at 11:13 pm
Back to the usual flatness
by spur212 on Jun 11, 2012 at 11:13 pm
Following the MSM logic of looking at primary votes in isolation, the Libs would struggle to win with a primary vote of only 44. (Tongue somewhat in cheek).
by Gorilla on Jun 11, 2012 at 11:14 pm
fredn,
Small and petty is fine by rummel.
by Jake on Jun 11, 2012 at 11:14 pm
There u go Bludgers – put that way means we are fighting Tories well
by BH on Jun 11, 2012 at 11:17 pm
This is a solid result for Labor, given that it’s still a landslide loss.
By that, I mean that it’s the 3rd Newspoll in a row at about this figure, after other polls showing 58% or more. I think there’s usually a lag time with these polls and I think it’s possible this is a confirmation that the polls are like a ship slowly turning.
The PM is improving now on satisfaction and improving head to head against Mr Abbott.
Reporting of the economy is also like that ship turning, it’s slowly, but surely recognising the reality and leaving behind the parallel universe of gloom.
Oh, Mr Morgan’s intervention is loking like the silliness it was, on these and his own figures.
by Swing Required on Jun 11, 2012 at 11:17 pm
Aguirre at 18,
About 80% of Greens voters preference the ALP as do about 40% of the ‘Others’ supporters.
by GhostWhoVotes on Jun 11, 2012 at 11:18 pm
I bet Kev wishes he had all this time and Team Labor support to fix the poll numbers like Gillard is receiving.
by rummel on Jun 11, 2012 at 11:18 pm
Given everything I think that’s a neutral result. Both majors primary vote down but within the MOE and 2PP about the same. The main interesting factor is that Newspoll is still slightly out of sync with the other polls.
Also both leaders showed a small improvement but once again within the MOE.
All up not much to get excited about except if Newspoll is closer to what people are thinking than the others then Labor is at least within striking distance.
by davidwh on Jun 11, 2012 at 11:19 pm
2010 was 80-20 for the Greens split and 40-60 for the Others split (to the ALP that is).
But you are right, that gives an ALP TPP of 46.6 so rounding has prevented a 47-53 which would have made some ripples!
by Mod Lib on Jun 11, 2012 at 11:19 pm
Would love to know how the Katter party is polling federally. We are all still in the dark on that….
by Scrutineer on Jun 11, 2012 at 11:19 pm
Perhaps taking on private/public school funding will be something that will energize the ALP voting base?
After all, as Tricot says, we need to get back that missing 8% that’s parked with the Tories. Taking on issues that are what Labor’s all about could be a way of doing this, and JG has said several times that education is the issue closest to her heart.
Besides, I just want to see those posh private school types squeal in dismay. That was hilarious stuff when Julia had a slap at Sydney’s North Shore and sure enough the Hate Media started interviewing North Shore residents snapping away. I wonder what they said?
“I had to sell off my third 4 wheel drive and I blame this Labor government!”
“Because Gillard took away my upper-middle class tax benefits, my family can only go yachting twice a year!”
“It’s a disaster! My son’s school was supposed to have its 4th Polo Field put in and they put a BER hall on the site instead!”
by Von Kirsdarke on Jun 11, 2012 at 11:20 pm
I’ll argue that this is a bad poll for Labor, after a week in which the economic statistics greatly favoured the government.
I was expecting something better than 54-46(which would still result in a handy win for the Coalition).
by Thornleigh Labor Man on Jun 11, 2012 at 11:21 pm
If he hadn’t stuffed up he would have the time and the support.
But he hasn’t. For him it’s over.
by muttleymcgee on Jun 11, 2012 at 11:21 pm
Evan,
Yes. You will.
by Jake on Jun 11, 2012 at 11:22 pm
The best thing going for Gillard is the absolute ineptness of Abbott/Hockey/Robb, but if there’s a negative reaction to the introduction of the carbon tax(higher electricity bills that aren’t compensated for), her leadership is in trouble again.
by Thornleigh Labor Man on Jun 11, 2012 at 11:23 pm
I support your argument
naturally.
by rummel on Jun 11, 2012 at 11:23 pm
A good time to remind people about Bob Browns comments on polling for Greens at the National Press Club. At that time he said the Greens were polling 14%. Now Newspoll confirms that figure.
by guytaur on Jun 11, 2012 at 11:24 pm
Very magnanimous Mod.
Speaking of rounding… The Lib-Nats got 43.6 in the 2010 election…
by Tobe on Jun 11, 2012 at 11:24 pm
Thanks to ModLib and GhostWhoVotes.
MOE and all that… but it does confirm the trend of previous polls.
ModLib – the bikini is taking shape!
by Aguirre on Jun 11, 2012 at 11:24 pm
The good thing about the gonski recommendations for Labor is that it can be argued from both sides.
IIRC the recommendation is a basically a situation where state schools will be better off and private shools will not be worse off (in absolute terms, not relative terms).
I would expect Labor to be all over it, the most difficult part will be funding, I’m sure that a way will be found though.
by deflationite on Jun 11, 2012 at 11:24 pm
thats a bit harsh. They have done well given the ineptness of Abbott/Hockey/Robb and it have only been posible because of Gillard.
by rummel on Jun 11, 2012 at 11:26 pm
Did someone say that 43.8% put Rabbott where he is? And his own incompetence and lack of ability, of course!
Now he’s a runaway!
And a sook.
by muttleymcgee on Jun 11, 2012 at 11:29 pm
Here are the primary vote ranges in the polls taken this weekend and last weekend (Newspoll, Nielsen & Essential)
ALP (26-33)
LNP (44-50)
Grn (10-14)
Oth (7-12)
We live in fluid times.
by Scrutineer on Jun 11, 2012 at 11:29 pm
When the Libs (PvO) are noting that current polling levels for their party are close to 2010 election result you can guarantee that there’s a lot of Coalition MPs sitting on small margins getting very nervous.
by Rossmore on Jun 11, 2012 at 11:29 pm
Rummel: Tony Abbott is obviously a drain on the Liberal primary vote – I think I’d agree with the pro Gillard faction here on that point.
by Thornleigh Labor Man on Jun 11, 2012 at 11:30 pm
This is a good poll at this point of the cycle IMO. These numbers were perfectly common in the Howard years (and years). As others have pointed out the primaries look more 57-43… And in a few weeks quite a few people will be surprised to see the carbon price has reduced their tax (there was another one of those on Q&A tonight).
by Tobe on Jun 11, 2012 at 11:32 pm
I dont disagree. If this trend continues Abbott will have to be removed as he has a one trick pony and he has flogged negativity to death.
by rummel on Jun 11, 2012 at 11:33 pm
George Osborne on Leveson.
by guytaur on Jun 11, 2012 at 11:34 pm
The next lot of electricity bills after July are critical for Gillard – if people feel they’ve been adequately compensated, she’s clear until the next election………if not and Labor MPs in marginal seats start getting negative feedback, the leadership is revisited.
by Thornleigh Labor Man on Jun 11, 2012 at 11:35 pm
So who will replace Rabbott?
Talcum Turnbull? PMJG will probably supply him with a Commonwealth Ute ..
Or ……..
by muttleymcgee on Jun 11, 2012 at 11:35 pm
But who succeeds Abbott, if they dumped him?
Scott Morrison would get the gig, I think – they’re not smart enough to go back to Turnball(who would trash Julia).
by Thornleigh Labor Man on Jun 11, 2012 at 11:37 pm