Newspoll: 54-46 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes reports that Newspoll has the Coalition’s two-party lead at 54-46, unchanged from the previous poll, with the primary votes at 31% for Labor (down one), 44% for the Coalition (down two) and 14% for the Greens (up two). Julia Gillard’s net approval is 4% less bad than last time, her approval up two to 32% and disapproval down two to 58%, while Tony Abbott is respectively up one to 32% and down one to 59%. On preferred prime minister, Gillard is up two to 42% and Abbott is up one to 38%.
It should be noted that most of the polling period (Friday to Sunday) covered what in every state but WA was a long weekend, when an unusually large number of potential respondents would be away from home. Given that absent and postal votes tend to favour the Coalition, it might be anticipated that this would bias the result slightly in favour of Labor, although measures may have been taken to correct for this. As far as I can tell, Newspoll used to abstain from polling over the Queen’s Birthday weekend, but changed this policy last year.
UPDATE: Essential Research has two-party preferred unchanged on last week at 56-44, from primary votes of 49% for the Coalition (down one), 32% for Labor (down one) and 10% for the Greens (steady). The monthly personal ratings have Julia Gillard up a point on approval to 32% and down four on disapproval to 56%, with Tony Abbott down four on approval to a new low of 32% and up one on approval up one to 54%. Funnily enough, Newspoll and Essential concur that both leaders’ approval ratings are 32%. Gillard and Abbott are tied at 37% on preferred prime minister, compared with a 38-37 lead for Gillard last time.
Other questions gauge public trust in various institutions, recording a remarkable drop for the federal parliament from 55% to 22% since the question was last asked in September, and other sharp drops recorded for trade unions (from 39% to 22%), environmental groups (45% to 32%), business groups (38% to 22%) and, for some reason, the Reserve Bank (67% to 49%). The poll also finds 60% disapproving of bringing in overseas workers with only 16% approving, 32% believing labour costs and taxes might drive mining companies away against 49% who expect them to carry on regardless.
UPDATE 2: Roy Morgan makes it three polls in one day by reporting its face-to-face results, which it evidently does on Tuesdays now rather than Fridays. This result is Labor’s best since March, their primary vote up half a point to 33% with the Coalition down 2.5% to 42.5% and the Greens up two to 12.5%. On two-party preferred, the Coalition’s lead has narrowed from 55.5-44.5 to 52-48 on previous election preferences and from 58-42 to 55-45 on respondent-allocated.
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
And somewhere in this wide brown land a jurior, prosecutor, journalist,
judge lays/lies awake looking at the ceiling thinking.
My God what have I done.
by Pipe Fitter on Jun 12, 2012 at 9:03 pm
For those interested in the relationship between unions and the ALP….
Trevor Cook, a doctoral student and tutor in Australian politics at the University of Sydney. His thesis is on the (changing) relationship between the ALP and unions. Between 1982 and 2007, he worked in federal politics (as a Ministerial adviser in the Hawke Government), the Australian public service and public relations.
http://trevorcook.typepad.com/weblog/2012/03/does-the-alp-still-have-a-base.html
by Pegasus on Jun 12, 2012 at 9:04 pm
David – As I understand it he went 1/2 way. Allowing civil unions but no actual marriage ceremony to please the Churches in Qld.
by BH on Jun 12, 2012 at 9:04 pm
I’ve no expertise in traversing desert wilderness in the company of others. Yet is that relevant here? I’d say not.
That rather supports my objection, surely. Remains were left.
by Fran Barlow on Jun 12, 2012 at 9:06 pm
bemused,
If they were so desparate to have Turnbull back the shit fight would leak.
And as I said, don’t forget the lizard-brains. The pieces will fly everywhere.
by cud chewer on Jun 12, 2012 at 9:07 pm
cud chewer @ 1147
I share your hope re Abbott. He is currently the best thing the ALP has going for it.
by bemused on Jun 12, 2012 at 9:07 pm
The sort of stuff a good coroner might consider and no doubt did.
by Darn on Jun 12, 2012 at 9:08 pm
BH given the conservative ex-Nats Newman has to deal with that was a pretty good result.
by davidwh on Jun 12, 2012 at 9:08 pm
“Isn’t it great that Gillard is subjecting herself to so much scrutiny and pain while Abbott won’t subject himself to similar scrutiny” …
In sport, the term “character building” is often used to rationalise bad results
Also, subjecting yourself to unnecessary pain is masochistic. If someone repeatedly banging their head against the wall in order to elicit some sort of sympathy vote, I’d say that person doing that is in big trouble
by spur212 on Jun 12, 2012 at 9:09 pm
DanG – can we blow them raspberries!
by BH on Jun 12, 2012 at 9:10 pm
Fran Barlow
Your arrogance regarding Azaria Chamberlain is truly breath taking. You have zero first hand knowledge and yet parade your opinion as being the gold standard.
by poroti on Jun 12, 2012 at 9:12 pm
But we’re talking about politics, not sport.
Is this the best analogy you can conjure?
by confessions on Jun 12, 2012 at 9:13 pm
davidwh – Newman’s a bit of a flip flopper already tho. He seems to open his mouth before is brain gets into gear and then he has to backtrack. Abbott gets away with it so I suppose Newman thinks he can to. Labor can never get away with it.
by BH on Jun 12, 2012 at 9:14 pm
Socceroos ripped off yet again to a ridiculous refereeing decision
by Dario on Jun 12, 2012 at 9:14 pm
Why is there doubt about the coalition vote being somewhere in the mid 50s? That’s where it has been for over a year.
by ShowsOn on Jun 12, 2012 at 9:15 pm
Fran – read Chester Porter QC, the Royal Commissioner for the Chamberlain case.
by BH on Jun 12, 2012 at 9:16 pm
Something to scare foxtel
George Bludger@GeorgeBludger
Made for App: future of television http://j.mp/LPZxr9 A mini-series developed for iPad may have TV networks watching in horror
by Schnappi on Jun 12, 2012 at 9:16 pm
BH I heard a Brisbane radio person today question Newman’s performance last week so that’s at least a positive sign he will be put under some scrunity.
by davidwh on Jun 12, 2012 at 9:16 pm
Confessions
You are adding strength to my point
by spur212 on Jun 12, 2012 at 9:17 pm
I’ve got an early start tomorrow so time to move myself. Gnight all
by BH on Jun 12, 2012 at 9:17 pm
davidwh,
Any scrutiny Can-Do will be under will be pointless. He will carry on with whatever it is he wants to do regardless.
by Space Kidette on Jun 12, 2012 at 9:19 pm
I imagine it was along the lines of, “Vote for me, or I’ll send Marco around to your place to ‘gently persuade’ you of the error of your ways.”
by C@tmomma on Jun 12, 2012 at 9:20 pm
BH
Y’all come back now ya hear
by poroti on Jun 12, 2012 at 9:20 pm
spur212:
Your point is lost on me then.
by confessions on Jun 12, 2012 at 9:21 pm
Showy I didn’t say the polls were good just improving.
by davidwh on Jun 12, 2012 at 9:21 pm
“In sport, the term “character building” is often used to rationalise bad results ”
I’ll remember that when Warick Capper wants to be PM
by Augustus on Jun 12, 2012 at 9:22 pm
BH,
Sweet dreams!
by Space Kidette on Jun 12, 2012 at 9:22 pm
Spur
Unfortunately, it is not unnecessary pain!
This is politics & you have to get out of that bed in the morning & march forward.
You have to face the voters, those who are in disagreement with you, the hostility & the difficult and hard questions.
You need the steel to make the hard decisions and not melt under the narrative enmeshed around polling.
If you cannot do that, then you should not be in politics.
Good politicians are not cowards.
by Dee on Jun 12, 2012 at 9:27 pm
I obviously missed this at the time, but great to see Dr Emerson taking the ABC to task given its ongoing inability to provide intelligent news coverage in this country.
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/thestump/2012/06/09/craig-emerson-rips-into-the-abc/
The most telling omission from their ABC was this:
Enough said. Because “the papers are saying” is their ABC’s excuse to outsource its editorial direction to the whims of Fairfax and News Ltd management.
What an utter disgrace. Mr Geoghegan should be asked whether this is in line with the ABC charter and whether his producer directed him to follow this line of questioning because of “the papers” or whether there was a genuine journalistic interest developed by the ABC’s own research and thinking.
by Darren Laver on Jun 12, 2012 at 9:28 pm
Dee,
There was a comment made by Keating in an intrview, when he decided to “cool” the economy and it was “Why would I put myself into the political wilderness if it wasn’t good for the country”.
by Augustus on Jun 12, 2012 at 9:32 pm
“Vote for me! I’ve suffered more pain”
It’s a pity this is politics and not a meritocry
by spur212 on Jun 12, 2012 at 9:34 pm
Ugh meritocracy
by spur212 on Jun 12, 2012 at 9:34 pm
Here is the updated (14 day) poll average and trend graph for those seeking an overall state of play after today’s polls.
http://poliquant.com/australia/
by Scrutineer on Jun 12, 2012 at 9:34 pm
Latest from Andrew Elder
http://andrewelder.blogspot.com.au/2012/06/no-message-is-message.html
by Dee on Jun 12, 2012 at 9:44 pm
Darren Laver
And others. In the case of the ABC TV News finance report, quite literally, outsource it to Business Spectator.
Take today, for example, as a not especially extraordinary day. A not uninteresting ASX announcement today was yet another earnings downgrade from Fairfax. Not as interesting as the Spanish bank bailout. Probably not as Qantas either. But Bluesteel – quite possibly. DJs, who didn’t even make an ASX announcement today – maybe.
But Alan Kohler mentioned the latter 2, but not Fairfax. Quite possibly, because FXJ going down the toilet is not exactly news. But it is also a matter of public record (in the AFR) that FXJ has been in discussions to buy Business Spectator. Now I don’t know if those discussions are continuing or not. And nor am I insinuating that any such discussions are influencing Alan Kohler’s editorial judgement as to what he does or does not say on ABC TV.
But just as justice must not only be done but also be manifestly and undoubtedly be seen to be done, I think it is outrageously poor judgement by the ABC management and/or directors to not use one if their own paid employees to do the finance report, rather than Alan Kohler, who is simply and necessarily in a conflicted position in communicating to ABC’s audience.
(And its not like he does a particularly superlative job at it anyway).
by Laocoon on Jun 12, 2012 at 9:49 pm
HORRENDOUS!
by ShowsOn on Jun 12, 2012 at 9:50 pm
” no, im not a Nazi or neo-nazi, we just use the good points” Ukraine football fan.
by rummel on Jun 12, 2012 at 9:53 pm
Tremendous WCQ Australia came back from 1 nil down and a red card to snatch an equalizer and almost won it but the bar saved Japan.
by Rossmore on Jun 12, 2012 at 9:55 pm
rummell @ 1186
Quoted with approval by you?
by bemused on Jun 12, 2012 at 9:55 pm
Bemused.
In no way what so ever. Im shocked at what go’s on within Poland and Ukraine football games. 3000+ people giving the Sieg Heil, the Jew hate, race hate ect. I really cant believe it.
by rummel on Jun 12, 2012 at 9:59 pm
bemused
I don’t think I’ve ever made a joke that you haven’t taken seriously!
by zoomster on Jun 12, 2012 at 10:00 pm
rummel @ 1189
And yet you support a party renowned for its racist dog whistling.
by bemused on Jun 12, 2012 at 10:01 pm
http://andrewelder.blogspot.com.au/
means a loss of revenue and ooh let’s convene a talk on digimedia).
Julia Gillard will lead Labor to victory at the next Federal election. The government has a message and she is starting to give her voice to it. People are wary, holding off for some consistency that will lead to a bigger picture, a picture in which their own role becomes clearer. Messaging professionals who turn away from Labor’s recently poor record and who admire Abbott’s “cut through” are themselves missing the point, and failing in their own role as communicators.
* This is crap. Abbott hasn’t thought this through, he couldn’t get it past a hostile Senate, and there would have to be about four elections over the next six years in order to get all the ducks in a row for Abbott, as outlined ??here – during which time voters would have to maintain both a burning hatred for Labor and abso
by my say on Jun 12, 2012 at 10:02 pm
Rossmore, the ref stuffed up big time sending our man off but then gave us a square up with the penalty to level it. Exciting game but ref got in the way of what could have been even better.
by Dario on Jun 12, 2012 at 10:03 pm
Major at Levenson:
I do think parts of his press, parts of his media empire have lowered the general quality of the British media. I think that is a loss.
I think it is evident which newspaper I am referring to. I think they have lowered the tone. I think the interaction that there has been with politicians has done no good either to the press or to the politicians.
I think the sheer scale of the influence he is believed to [have] whether he exercises it or not, is an unattractive facet in British national life, and it does seem to me an oddity that in a nation which prides itself on one man, one vote, we should have one man, who can’t vote, with a large collection of newspapers and a large share of the electronic media outlets.
I don’t think you could or should in a sort of diverse world in which we live, actually do anything about that, but it does strike me as slightly odd that that actually is the position.
by Rossmore on Jun 12, 2012 at 10:03 pm
zoomster @ 1190
Not your fault zoomster. There is so much stuff posted here in all seriousness that is just comedy gold.
It just gets hard to separate what’s meant to be taken seriously from the occasional intended joke.
by bemused on Jun 12, 2012 at 10:03 pm
Americans’ wealth plummeted 40%, The Fed says from $126,400 in 2007 to $77,300 in 2010 – http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/fed-americans-wealth-dropped-40-percent/2012/06/11/gJQAlIsCVV_story.html Aust’s $297,000 – A sure BISON
by The Finnigans on Jun 12, 2012 at 10:05 pm
I accidentally caught a bit of Paul Murray Live on Sky a liitle while ago. Murray and some slimey sleazeball were indulging in Boy Talk. Like this or wtte -
Murray – If the Prime Minister has an hour to sit around answering questions she’s welcome to come here.
Slimeball – (Smirk, smirk) Yes, we’ll ask the questions and we’ll tell her we want an election..
Murray – And it will be unscripted (smirk, nudge, wink, sleaze)
I couldn’t get out of there fast enough. It was like teenage boys (very dumb teenage boys) trying to sound funny and failing badly. If the PM did decide to take Murray up on his offer she’d eat these blokes alive and they wouldn’t even realise what was happening until it was all over.
The sleazeball was that bloke from Queensland who used to be a Lib politician. I think he now does something on radio. I can’t be bothered looking up the name. He’s not worth the trouble.
by leone on Jun 12, 2012 at 10:06 pm
It’s crap like that that make the Tories so useful to the rent seekers.
by swamprat on Jun 12, 2012 at 10:06 pm
I will take a Gillard Australia over a Obama America.
by rummel on Jun 12, 2012 at 10:08 pm