Newspoll: 54-46 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes reports that Newspoll has the Coalition’s two-party lead at 54-46, unchanged from the previous poll, with the primary votes at 31% for Labor (down one), 44% for the Coalition (down two) and 14% for the Greens (up two). Julia Gillard’s net approval is 4% less bad than last time, her approval up two to 32% and disapproval down two to 58%, while Tony Abbott is respectively up one to 32% and down one to 59%. On preferred prime minister, Gillard is up two to 42% and Abbott is up one to 38%.
It should be noted that most of the polling period (Friday to Sunday) covered what in every state but WA was a long weekend, when an unusually large number of potential respondents would be away from home. Given that absent and postal votes tend to favour the Coalition, it might be anticipated that this would bias the result slightly in favour of Labor, although measures may have been taken to correct for this. As far as I can tell, Newspoll used to abstain from polling over the Queen’s Birthday weekend, but changed this policy last year.
UPDATE: Essential Research has two-party preferred unchanged on last week at 56-44, from primary votes of 49% for the Coalition (down one), 32% for Labor (down one) and 10% for the Greens (steady). The monthly personal ratings have Julia Gillard up a point on approval to 32% and down four on disapproval to 56%, with Tony Abbott down four on approval to a new low of 32% and up one on approval up one to 54%. Funnily enough, Newspoll and Essential concur that both leaders’ approval ratings are 32%. Gillard and Abbott are tied at 37% on preferred prime minister, compared with a 38-37 lead for Gillard last time.
Other questions gauge public trust in various institutions, recording a remarkable drop for the federal parliament from 55% to 22% since the question was last asked in September, and other sharp drops recorded for trade unions (from 39% to 22%), environmental groups (45% to 32%), business groups (38% to 22%) and, for some reason, the Reserve Bank (67% to 49%). The poll also finds 60% disapproving of bringing in overseas workers with only 16% approving, 32% believing labour costs and taxes might drive mining companies away against 49% who expect them to carry on regardless.
UPDATE 2: Roy Morgan makes it three polls in one day by reporting its face-to-face results, which it evidently does on Tuesdays now rather than Fridays. This result is Labor’s best since March, their primary vote up half a point to 33% with the Coalition down 2.5% to 42.5% and the Greens up two to 12.5%. On two-party preferred, the Coalition’s lead has narrowed from 55.5-44.5 to 52-48 on previous election preferences and from 58-42 to 55-45 on respondent-allocated.
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
You could almost hear the tear drops hitting the keys when PVO tweeted his disbelief, re: Newspoll
by Dee on Jun 13, 2012 at 9:50 am
@ABCNews24: Coming up just after 10am AEST.. @SwannyDPM delivering his speech to the Economic Forum on the patchwork economy and the high dollar.
by guytaur on Jun 13, 2012 at 9:50 am
Ozymandias
This is a brilliant graphic showing how little air and water there actually is. Against the globe there is a sphere equal to the total volume of water and air. Every person who thinks our emissions could not have an effect on the volume shown should look at the picture.
http://marinebio.org/i/E055330-Global_water_and_air_volume-SPL.jpg
by poroti on Jun 13, 2012 at 9:51 am
For a really excellent interview this morning on RN (despite Fran Kelly) …… James McKenzie, Chairman of Mirvac doing what the PM suggests ie talking the place up, not .
down.
http://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/breakfast/economic-forum-james-mackenzie/4067536
by psyclaw on Jun 13, 2012 at 9:52 am
@lyndalcurtis: RBA Gov says the list of things the prod Cmm has are difficult & politically hard. Also prod improvmts cld come in arena of fed/st relations
by guytaur on Jun 13, 2012 at 9:53 am
@lyndalcurtis: RBA Gov says the key is “make your best guess” and maintain adaptability. #economicforum
by guytaur on Jun 13, 2012 at 9:53 am
Meguire Bob
Sorry, I meant energising.
by Lynchpin on Jun 13, 2012 at 9:54 am
@lyndalcurtis: The PM says coffee is important to productivity. (or at least the coffee break). #economicforum
I have to agree with this.
by guytaur on Jun 13, 2012 at 9:55 am
Looks like Jackson’s fifteen minutes of fame just ended.
by Darn on Jun 13, 2012 at 9:55 am
#TheDrum (News 24) (6pm) — 59,000 @abcmarkscott @SteveCannane – not good. we need more of the dynamic duo Peter Reith & Kathy Jackson
by The Finnigans on Jun 13, 2012 at 9:55 am
Vexnews laid bare to Kathy Jackson and her dance of 7 veils with HR Nicholls, not to mention Peter Reith http://www.vexnews.com/2012/06/fatal-attraction-hr-nicholls-society-risks-its-brand-by-spending-night-with-kathy-jackson/
by The Finnigans on Jun 13, 2012 at 9:56 am
@lyndalcurtis: Wayne Swan say Glenn Stevens is “the Mal Meninga” of central bankers. #economicforum”
@lyndalcurtis: (presumably referring to Mal’s football rather than his political career ..) #economicforum
That will get cut through with the voters in NSW and QLD.
by guytaur on Jun 13, 2012 at 9:57 am
Lynchpin @1498
I dont believe the claims that the public isnt listening to Gillard.Labor , and
with the coalition free falling primary is showing that the public are listening and waiting
after july 1, like many on here have stated it wil likely exposed abbott/news ltd coalition more
by Meguire Bob on Jun 13, 2012 at 9:57 am
Earlier in the year The Australian engaged in a major piece of global warming science self-scensorship.
It did so by not publishing an article, or commentary on the biggest piece of climate science published by Australian scientists for the past couple of years. It was a report on temperatures in the Australasian region for the last millenium.
I can only imagine it failed to do so because the record was more or less consistent with the consensus that the planet is warming because of increases in atmospheric CO2 concentrations. ‘The Australian’ had other axes to grind, including trying to undermine the Government that was trying to respond to this science by promoting the series of big lies being told by Mr Abbott about the impact of the carbon price.
This sort of war on science by ‘The Australian’ is standard for the journal of record, and is extremely well-documented on the Deltoid Blog. So, in a way, nothing really new. Just a confirmation of a documented pattern.
Now, someone has checked part of the statistical methodology and found it to be wanting. The authors have accepted the criticism and will redo that part of the paper. IMHO, this is an excellent example of science in action.
In charges ‘The Australian’ : ‘Climate Paper Flawed’.
Who wants to pay for lies of ommission, for jesuistical mental reservation, for intellectual bastardry?
I wonder if they reflect why the public has so little faith in journalists, editors, and newspapers that they are disappearing from our culture?
by Boerwar on Jun 13, 2012 at 9:59 am
The brilliance of the Government praising Glenn Stevens is that the opposition cannot attack the Independent Banker. This adds to government credibility undermines Abbott’s and there can be no return fire from the LNP.
by guytaur on Jun 13, 2012 at 9:59 am
Meguire Bob
I think you are right. I have always thought that was too easy to say.
by Lynchpin on Jun 13, 2012 at 10:00 am
Obama said Romney’s POTUS campaign theme could fit on a tweet with letters to spare ‘it’s Obama’s fault’ Ditto Abbott “It’s Gillard’s fault”
by The Finnigans on Jun 13, 2012 at 10:02 am
Interesting fact on viewer habits in the US
@mashable: 11% of TV watchers only watch network programming digitally, says new study – http://t.co/IbUo4Jur
by guytaur on Jun 13, 2012 at 10:03 am
guytaur
Does Glenn say ‘black dot’ to himself?
by CTar1 on Jun 13, 2012 at 10:04 am
DWH
The pearls?
Speciousness aside, it is interesting that Ms Jackson is receiving the same sort of commentary that Ms Mata Hari did. In other words, elements of Ms Jackson’s body/gender/sexuality are conflated with Ms Jackson’s deeds/misdeeds.
Not that such an analysis would have helped ms Mata Hari.
by Boerwar on Jun 13, 2012 at 10:04 am
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/more-news/tony-abbotts-twitter-question-and-answer-session-backfires/story-fn7x8me2-1226393407460
by Leroy on Jun 13, 2012 at 10:05 am
BW
I assume you will be watching the NPC address by the Nato Secretary General.
by guytaur on Jun 13, 2012 at 10:08 am
Leroy, I couldn’t get onto that link – what were some of the “ridiculous topics”?
If Abbott is becoming a figure of derision, it is bad news for him and the Tories.
by Lynchpin on Jun 13, 2012 at 10:09 am
Norway’s oil and gas industry is in public ownership – a very large, world-class, well-defined, long-lived and valuable resource has been developed and managed by a wholly State-owned corporation – in a system that was debated, accepted and legislated at the time the resource was discovered.
This bears no resemblance to the Australian mining industry, which consists of many hundreds of projects of diverse size, value, longevity, ownership, risk and profitability. There are just two minerals that have become really very valuable, very quickly – iron and coal – and even then, there are plenty of iron and coal deposits that are still not worth developing.
The extraction of most other minerals is not highly profitable at all, remains very risky, produces volatile returns and sometime spectacular losses. It would make very little sense to try to nationalize such businesses, even if there were a lawful way in which this could be done.
It is just misleading to suggest that the Norwegian model could be applied to the Australian mining industry. The Henry concept was an ill-understood attempt to use tax measures to appropriate a quasi-equitable interest in all mines and quarries in Australia, regardless of their quality, location, ownership, funding, expected life or even likely profitability.
To say this was “elegant” is like accusing Barnaby Joyce of being suave and sophisticated. Really, you should stop defending the indefensible.
by briefly on Jun 13, 2012 at 10:09 am
DWH
You need to get your ears checked!.
by 1934pc on Jun 13, 2012 at 10:10 am
Lynchpin – the link works fine for me (as pasted), its not paywalled or anything.
Try Googling the title.
by Leroy on Jun 13, 2012 at 10:10 am
Bangladesh turns away BOATS carrying Muslims fleeing Myanmar conflict – TURN THE BOATS, Abbott on its way – http://www.straitstimes.com/BreakingNews/Asia/Story/STIStory_810076.html
by The Finnigans on Jun 13, 2012 at 10:11 am
briefly
The Australian Mining Tax as proposed by Ken Henry is indeed elegant. It addresses the issues you raise by one very simple expedient. It is a tax on profits. More elegant than royalties and other taxes on inputs.
by guytaur on Jun 13, 2012 at 10:12 am
Guytuar
Two points:
1. Wayne Swan can’t cut through anything
2. People could care less about a politician praising the Govener of the RBA. If anything it looks like he’s kissing his behind (not that there’s anything wrong with that as he’s an exceptional central bank Govener)
by spur212 on Jun 13, 2012 at 10:12 am
I felt the same way about John Howard. I couldn’t stand listening to him.
by confessions on Jun 13, 2012 at 10:13 am
I have one thing to say about all those bashing Rudd and advocators of Rudd’s return on here:
#fairgo
by spur212 on Jun 13, 2012 at 10:14 am
s212
Wow are you wrong. We know Swan can cut through. He has done it at least one already with his attacks on Palmer, Rinehart and Forrest.
You show your blinkered thinking,
by guytaur on Jun 13, 2012 at 10:14 am
Boarwar @ 1513
Rubbish, see here an article on this paper on May 17 by Leigh Dayton, Science writer for The Australian
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/health-science/climate-at-its-warmest-for-the-past-1000-years/story-e6frg8y6-1226358250606
by Gauss on Jun 13, 2012 at 10:14 am
g
Not sure if I will be free. But it would be interesting to see whether he addresses the issue that one of the reasons Europe is bust is huge overspending on the military.
All NATO members, including the US, are going to have to cut military spending significantly.
In fact I believe that the US has already decided on over $100 billion in cuts.
Greece, Spain, Italy, with horrendous and unsustainable debts, all have substantial inventories of war planes and war ships.
by Boerwar on Jun 13, 2012 at 10:15 am
briefly – I read your comments last night against the RSPT and you may have answers it but if you had been designing the system in short how would you have gone about developing it or would you have left the previously situation in place?
by mexicanbeemer on Jun 13, 2012 at 10:15 am
Gauss
Whoops. Thanks for the correction. I read The Australian carefully and looked for articles but missed that one. My bad.
by Boerwar on Jun 13, 2012 at 10:16 am
Criticism of Rudd and Rudd’s white-anting behaviour is not “bashing Rudd”.
by confessions on Jun 13, 2012 at 10:16 am
The #asktony fun. That creep gets more than a free kick in the press.
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/purepoison/2012/06/13/asktony-in-which-mr-abbott-tries-to-make-up-for-avoiding-lateline-or-qa-by-pretending-to-be-available-to-answer-questions-on-twitter-for-twenty-minutes-and-it-backfires/
I’ll miss the pure poison lads – they read the tabloids so I don’t have to – like BB listening to Hadley so I don’t have to – it’s good to know what bullshit is out there.
by David McRae on Jun 13, 2012 at 10:16 am
bw
I agree. It will be interesting to see if economic reality will bring increased peace to the world.
by guytaur on Jun 13, 2012 at 10:16 am
Boerwar – I think there is a strong argument for America to close its European bases and reduce its Asian bases to maybe just one or two
by mexicanbeemer on Jun 13, 2012 at 10:17 am
Thanks Leroy:
Some of the arskeTony questions:
by Lynchpin on Jun 13, 2012 at 10:17 am
All politicians get hoards of ridiculous and sometimes very nasty questions and comments on twitter.
It’s par for the course!
Rabbott is a precious petal!
by Dee on Jun 13, 2012 at 10:20 am
Psyclaw @ 1503
Just another confirmation of the extraordinary anti-governmnet bias of the media, especially Fran Kelly who James Mackenzie very politely corrected.
No wonder Labor has trouble cutting through
by billie on Jun 13, 2012 at 10:20 am
by guytaur on Jun 13, 2012 at 10:21 am
I like “enervating” Lynch… much better than other word mangle’s like “incentivise”…
Spur, you are just talking the ALP down. I know you like to think you are being constructive, but you are just being repetitive, and boring. Be careful of becoming a grumbling sad sack. Think of all the sad sacks you have met in your life, do you really want to spend more time with them?
by Tobe on Jun 13, 2012 at 10:22 am
A heavy dose of irony…
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2012/jun/12/in-praise-of-ray-dolin
by poroti on Jun 13, 2012 at 10:23 am
Boarwar @ 1513
Again on the Gergis et al paper.
Flawed is probably too kind a word. And also a case of extreme embarrassment for the authors. Here’s what one of the authors, David Karoly, emailed blogger Steve McIntyre, when one of his followers, Jean S, found the glaring error.
And the notice.
by Gauss on Jun 13, 2012 at 10:24 am
AFR has Jackson speaking at HR Nicholls as front page story under the headline
No irony detected.
Then there is a bold box underneath
Again, no irony detected
Page 55 is yet another large op-ed piece, an extract from her speech.
And on page 6 (yes, the AFR coverage is quite extensive):
(1) That is the only reference I have seen in the extensive AFR coverage to the Jackson legal action and
(2) Was he not sacked last week?
by Laocoon on Jun 13, 2012 at 10:25 am
I noticed in the Herald Sun link posted by Leroy that Abbott was defended by one Alan Kohler. Not sure if it is authentic, though.
by Lynchpin on Jun 13, 2012 at 10:25 am
Thanks for that – a great graphic indeed.
My own analogy is that from any point on the Earth’s surface you only have to travel 8km straight upwards for there to no longer be enough air to breathe.
Most of us travel further to work each day.
by Think Big on Jun 13, 2012 at 10:26 am