Newspoll: 54-46 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes reports that Newspoll has the Coalition’s two-party lead at 54-46, unchanged from the previous poll, with the primary votes at 31% for Labor (down one), 44% for the Coalition (down two) and 14% for the Greens (up two). Julia Gillard’s net approval is 4% less bad than last time, her approval up two to 32% and disapproval down two to 58%, while Tony Abbott is respectively up one to 32% and down one to 59%. On preferred prime minister, Gillard is up two to 42% and Abbott is up one to 38%.
It should be noted that most of the polling period (Friday to Sunday) covered what in every state but WA was a long weekend, when an unusually large number of potential respondents would be away from home. Given that absent and postal votes tend to favour the Coalition, it might be anticipated that this would bias the result slightly in favour of Labor, although measures may have been taken to correct for this. As far as I can tell, Newspoll used to abstain from polling over the Queen’s Birthday weekend, but changed this policy last year.
UPDATE: Essential Research has two-party preferred unchanged on last week at 56-44, from primary votes of 49% for the Coalition (down one), 32% for Labor (down one) and 10% for the Greens (steady). The monthly personal ratings have Julia Gillard up a point on approval to 32% and down four on disapproval to 56%, with Tony Abbott down four on approval to a new low of 32% and up one on approval up one to 54%. Funnily enough, Newspoll and Essential concur that both leaders’ approval ratings are 32%. Gillard and Abbott are tied at 37% on preferred prime minister, compared with a 38-37 lead for Gillard last time.
Other questions gauge public trust in various institutions, recording a remarkable drop for the federal parliament from 55% to 22% since the question was last asked in September, and other sharp drops recorded for trade unions (from 39% to 22%), environmental groups (45% to 32%), business groups (38% to 22%) and, for some reason, the Reserve Bank (67% to 49%). The poll also finds 60% disapproving of bringing in overseas workers with only 16% approving, 32% believing labour costs and taxes might drive mining companies away against 49% who expect them to carry on regardless.
UPDATE 2: Roy Morgan makes it three polls in one day by reporting its face-to-face results, which it evidently does on Tuesdays now rather than Fridays. This result is Labor’s best since March, their primary vote up half a point to 33% with the Coalition down 2.5% to 42.5% and the Greens up two to 12.5%. On two-party preferred, the Coalition’s lead has narrowed from 55.5-44.5 to 52-48 on previous election preferences and from 58-42 to 55-45 on respondent-allocated.
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Psyclaw
He’s waiting for something don’t you think?
Independently wealthy with various interests and connections.
Why is he sitting in parliament twiddling his thumbs?
I think Howard convinced him to stay, just in case Rabbott ran true to historical form.
by Dee on Jun 13, 2012 at 2:17 pm
Dee
I honestly thought Talcum would have acted by now. There is Mr Porter from WA who is now going to go to Canberra wanting a piece of the action. What is Abbott to do?
by victoria on Jun 13, 2012 at 2:20 pm
Astrobleme @ 1711
What scientific community? Certainly in the confines of RC and it’s followers, it hasn’t.
You must be joking. Here for example we have Jean S picking up a serious error in the Gergis et al paper and the printed publication of this paper has been suspended. And you say you have “never seen it”.
You cite Grant Forster. Now this is the person who on this subject, in particular the subject of centred PCA, quoted Ian Jolliffe, one of the world’s foremost experts on PCA & author of a seminal book on the subject, as backing a claim of Forster’s. Only problem was Jolliffe repudiated this.
Ouch.
http://climateaudit.org/2008/09/08/ian-jolliffe-comments-at-tamino/
by Gauss on Jun 13, 2012 at 2:21 pm
O yes MT
by my say on Jun 13, 2012 at 2:23 pm
Leone
Gillespie is an interesting guy. He was best man at Abbott’s wedding and has a lot of similarities; intolerant, rude, short temper, misogynist and in particular a glass jaw for criticism – he is not really politician stuff. He has a very bad family history of cardiac disease and has already had by-pass surgery when he was 49.
I think he wants to get into parliament to relive the rugger-bugger days with tone. I understand that his wife strongly objects to him standing.
It will be interesting to see if he gets the nod. The only other declared candidate is an army officer who has never lived in the electorate. Jamie (where are my trousers?) Harrison is also considering apparently.
by Oakeshott Country on Jun 13, 2012 at 2:26 pm
Victoria
Cannot help thinking Porter is only part of a broader manoeuvre.
IMO Turnballs will be looking for a pre-election honeymoon period.
by Dee on Jun 13, 2012 at 2:31 pm
just love the kouk
Stephen Koukoulas @TheKouk
Credit rating agencies reaffirm AAA rating as Abbott says we have the worst govt ever. Either rating agencies or Abbott is wrong. Which one?
by Lyne Lady on Jun 13, 2012 at 2:32 pm
Labor has to act first Victoria or the polls have to improve for Labor much more than they have.
by davidwh on Jun 13, 2012 at 2:34 pm
Dee
JBishop most likely has drafted Porter from WA. There is definitely a strategy involved
by victoria on Jun 13, 2012 at 2:35 pm
They can both be correct Lyne Lady though I suspect Abbott is exaggerating a little.
by davidwh on Jun 13, 2012 at 2:36 pm
Labor has to act first Victoria or the pol DAVid posted
What with , and why
by my say on Jun 13, 2012 at 2:37 pm
Can I chose option 3?
by Laocoon on Jun 13, 2012 at 2:37 pm
Lyne lady
When since did credit rating agencies rate governments? Kouk you are a Couk.
by Gauss on Jun 13, 2012 at 2:38 pm
My say I just can’t see the Coalition moving on Abbott while they hold a poll lead and while the government hold onto a leader as unpopular as Abbott.
The two party leaders are simultaneously their party’s best assets and biggest weakness.
by davidwh on Jun 13, 2012 at 2:41 pm
I am not a supporter of Jackson, but have to say this kind of comment is just sexist and irrelevant. Whether she is or is not attractive is just beside the point and, obviously, does not go to the substance of the problems in the HSU.
by briefly on Jun 13, 2012 at 2:41 pm
But if the gov, of the day gets a bad rating
Woud you not say its the gov, fault
So the situation in greece spain, is not the fault of the gov. Then
Liberal reasoning again to suit the situation
by my say on Jun 13, 2012 at 2:42 pm
Oh look, Kathy Jackson gave a speech to the HR Nicholls Society last night.
How long do have to pretend she isn’t a LNP stooge with clear personal links to Abbott?
by lefty e on Jun 13, 2012 at 2:42 pm
Sorry the government holds onto a leader as unpopular as Gillard
by davidwh on Jun 13, 2012 at 2:43 pm
Mind you listening to the PM this morning was like listening to someone dragging their fingernails across a blackboard. DAVID
see my post re hearing it was my first symptom
Not joking
You may need a hearing test
by my say on Jun 13, 2012 at 2:44 pm
@latikambourke: Delimiter on Joe Hockey’s claim that 4G will be ‘far superior’ to the National Broadband Network: http://t.co/kungOY7m
by guytaur on Jun 13, 2012 at 2:44 pm
davidwh
Labor does not have to act first
by victoria on Jun 13, 2012 at 2:47 pm
Briefly I was directly responding to comments by others saying they don’t understand why Jackson is said to have sex appeal. In any case what does individual opinion about what they find gives sex appeal have to do with sexism? Different people are attracted to different qualities in others and it has nothing to do with sexism. It’s just being human.
by davidwh on Jun 13, 2012 at 2:47 pm
@guytaur/1769
Perhaps someone in the liberal fanfair that LTE is provided to the 4% on the NBN ?
by zoidlord on Jun 13, 2012 at 2:47 pm
David who says she is un popular and not listened to
Its a media myth
We keep telling u howard had similar poll numbers but you conveiently forget
by my say on Jun 13, 2012 at 2:48 pm
Lefty e re Jackson
_______
She got a standing ovation from the H R Nichols crowd and the Chairman said she had given them”ammunition” for their anti-union campaign “nuff said ??
by deblonay on Jun 13, 2012 at 2:49 pm
davidwh
its not abbott who is holding the lead its the media , any member of news ltd is more of an opposition leader then Abbott is
it shows how the liberal party is that incompetent or they have acknowledge the election is lost , why they may keep abbott
by Meguire Bob on Jun 13, 2012 at 2:49 pm
Victoria neither has to act first and we go to the election with the current leaders. Both leaders are unpopular but the team leading has less reason to act.
by davidwh on Jun 13, 2012 at 2:50 pm
I love the way Carbon Trolls call carbon pricing “the CO2 Tax”.
You usually get “It’s colourless and odourless too, and good for plants as well!” (This was recently put me by the idiot supplier who I refused to do business with).
Of course, whether it’s good for plants is immaterial to whether it is a greenhouse gas (although it IS poisonous in relatively small concentrations, just ask the Apollo 13 astronauts who were within 30 minutes of asphyxiation from high levels of CO2 before they jerry-rigged replacement CO2 scrubbers in the lunar lander).
The way it works, rummy, is this (slightly simplified):
1. High frequency light from the sun (UV and visible) passes through the CO2 blanket around the planet. CO2 is transparent to higher frequency light.
2. This light hits the ground and is converted into heat (low frequency light, “infra-red”)
3. This radiates upwards and is absorbed by CO2, which CAN absorb these LOWER frequencies.
4. At a random time later, the CO2 molecule re-radiates this heat in a random direction. Half goes upwards, half goes downwards, back to the lower atmosphere and the ground. In effect, CO2 is a “half-silvered mirror” to infra red radiation: it effectively reflects half of it and transmits the other half.
5. This is what heats up the atmosphere and the oceans.
Previous “climate warmings” are irrelevant to today’s climate warming, as:
1. They were less severe.
2. We didn’t have 7 billion people on the planet (as we do today) to fight wars over what’s left when the food chain is knocked off, or even disrupted.
3. Yes, we could possibly be set upon by a “natural” event such as those that caused past climate warmings, but it would wipe us out in the main. We’d have to start again. As this one is man made, we have a chance to man UN-make it.
4. It’s not just a “CO2″ tax. Other gases such as methane are equally involved.
Compared to the potential contained in today’s climate warming, the previous ones, as far as humanity and its civilization is concerned, were a doddle.
by Bushfire Bill on Jun 13, 2012 at 2:51 pm
The latest on possible El Nino from BOM site
________
It’s not certain …sort of 50/50 chance see info on site
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/index.shtml
by deblonay on Jun 13, 2012 at 2:53 pm
Kevin Rudd in my neck of the woods today – Chatswood High School on Sydney’s North Shore.
As Julia described all of us North Shore residents as being multi-millionaires and not in touch with working families, I doubt we’ll see her around here any time soon.
by Thornleigh Labor Man on Jun 13, 2012 at 2:53 pm
On the latest Newspoll Gillard is rated -26 and Abbott -27. They have both been around those numbers for over a year so what do people consider the position has to be for them both to be unpopular?
by davidwh on Jun 13, 2012 at 2:54 pm
davidwh
The party leading is in fact governing. Polls are not doing anything for anyone
by victoria on Jun 13, 2012 at 2:55 pm
TLM
Call the wambulance
by victoria on Jun 13, 2012 at 2:56 pm
davidwh
The movement in the the polls are from LNP to Green.
No other change really. OF course this is could be a sign of bad news for the Nats. If so a lot of seats could change previously safe
by guytaur on Jun 13, 2012 at 2:57 pm
Sorry Gauss but your hero McIntyre is a fraud (albeit a less inept one than the likes of Watts or Monckton) who smears eminent scientists, quote-mines their statements in order to misrepresent them and coordinated a vexatious campaign of FOI requests for data which the targets of the requests didn’t even legally own so as to disrupt their research.
The main seemingly credible supporter of his conclusions over the impact of short-centred PCA on Mann’s hockey-stick, Edward Wegman, was himself embroiled in an academic scandal of his own!
McIntyre’s blog is not known as ‘Climate Fraudit’ for nothing.
by Think Big on Jun 13, 2012 at 2:57 pm
Sorry Victoria I thought we were talking about leadership change.
by davidwh on Jun 13, 2012 at 3:00 pm
davidwh
I was. My latest post was in response to your post at 1776
by victoria on Jun 13, 2012 at 3:01 pm
I’ll say it again: for all of those salivating over the supposed imminent demise of Tony Abbott’s leadership, be careful what you wish for – the Liberals would undoubtably poll much better with a new leader – Turnball, or Hockey – and that’d make life harder for Ms Gillard.
Gillard supporters should actually be doing everything in their power to keep Mr Abbott in his current job.
by Thornleigh Labor Man on Jun 13, 2012 at 3:01 pm
Sky News bimbo asks such a stupid question of Lindy Chamberlain that she has to repeat it.
After repeating it, LC still has no answer.
A-bloody-mazing.
by Bushfire Bill on Jun 13, 2012 at 3:02 pm
gauss
Since governments started issuing bonds.
by Dan Gulberry on Jun 13, 2012 at 3:03 pm
TLM
Still trying to prop up Dr No. Does you no credit. Just as the Rabbott does the Liberal party no credit. The Liberal party is very close to falling into the same trap as the American GOP. Going so far right that you become unelectable.
by guytaur on Jun 13, 2012 at 3:04 pm
Victoria in that case your post doesn’t make sense. If a party is going to consider a change of leaders then voting intention today is a better guide than voting intentions two years ago.
by davidwh on Jun 13, 2012 at 3:05 pm
@tanya_plibersek: Great to announce $150k funding to @phmuseum for the Ultimo Science Festival – inspiring ‘geeks and non-geeks alike’! http://t.co/0Gfy4xvr
by guytaur on Jun 13, 2012 at 3:06 pm
TLM
You say the same things again, again, again and again.
With the same effect.
by CTar1 on Jun 13, 2012 at 3:07 pm
davidwh
You said that Labor has to act first re leadership change. I am saying no they dont
by victoria on Jun 13, 2012 at 3:08 pm
Oh my God, Ashley Gillam is embarrassing.
by Bushfire Bill on Jun 13, 2012 at 3:08 pm
Now talking over Lindy Chamberlain.
Gillam is NO INTERVIEWER.
Just switched Chamberlain off mid-sentence.
by Bushfire Bill on Jun 13, 2012 at 3:09 pm
Then she has improved immensely!
by BK on Jun 13, 2012 at 3:10 pm
DavidWH
IMO, Rabbott’s tactics are setting a possible future Coalition government up for an almost impossible task.
I’d say this, not polling, may bring about his downfall.
by Dee on Jun 13, 2012 at 3:10 pm
BB
Sounds like he is making TDT and ACA interviewers look professional by contrast
by guytaur on Jun 13, 2012 at 3:10 pm