Newspoll: 54-46 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes reports that Newspoll has the Coalition’s two-party lead at 54-46, unchanged from the previous poll, with the primary votes at 31% for Labor (down one), 44% for the Coalition (down two) and 14% for the Greens (up two). Julia Gillard’s net approval is 4% less bad than last time, her approval up two to 32% and disapproval down two to 58%, while Tony Abbott is respectively up one to 32% and down one to 59%. On preferred prime minister, Gillard is up two to 42% and Abbott is up one to 38%.
It should be noted that most of the polling period (Friday to Sunday) covered what in every state but WA was a long weekend, when an unusually large number of potential respondents would be away from home. Given that absent and postal votes tend to favour the Coalition, it might be anticipated that this would bias the result slightly in favour of Labor, although measures may have been taken to correct for this. As far as I can tell, Newspoll used to abstain from polling over the Queen’s Birthday weekend, but changed this policy last year.
UPDATE: Essential Research has two-party preferred unchanged on last week at 56-44, from primary votes of 49% for the Coalition (down one), 32% for Labor (down one) and 10% for the Greens (steady). The monthly personal ratings have Julia Gillard up a point on approval to 32% and down four on disapproval to 56%, with Tony Abbott down four on approval to a new low of 32% and up one on approval up one to 54%. Funnily enough, Newspoll and Essential concur that both leaders’ approval ratings are 32%. Gillard and Abbott are tied at 37% on preferred prime minister, compared with a 38-37 lead for Gillard last time.
Other questions gauge public trust in various institutions, recording a remarkable drop for the federal parliament from 55% to 22% since the question was last asked in September, and other sharp drops recorded for trade unions (from 39% to 22%), environmental groups (45% to 32%), business groups (38% to 22%) and, for some reason, the Reserve Bank (67% to 49%). The poll also finds 60% disapproving of bringing in overseas workers with only 16% approving, 32% believing labour costs and taxes might drive mining companies away against 49% who expect them to carry on regardless.
UPDATE 2: Roy Morgan makes it three polls in one day by reporting its face-to-face results, which it evidently does on Tuesdays now rather than Fridays. This result is Labor’s best since March, their primary vote up half a point to 33% with the Coalition down 2.5% to 42.5% and the Greens up two to 12.5%. On two-party preferred, the Coalition’s lead has narrowed from 55.5-44.5 to 52-48 on previous election preferences and from 58-42 to 55-45 on respondent-allocated.
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Mari we are also in Europe & saw an article on TV about the wealthy investing cash in London property (starting at 2 million pounds and going way up). They said that more than 50% of such sales are to non-UK residents and that the majority of those are EU residents and the majority of those were Greek.
it seems many very wealthy Greeks are shifting some of their funds from Greek banks to London bricks and mortar.
by CO on Jun 12, 2012 at 4:18 am
Well all I can say is kudos to for the PM for facing an unscripted public. Fail on the Marriage Act but at least her minders trust her unscripted. Look forward to Mr Abbott’s appearance for a bit of balance.
by Dr Phibes on Jun 12, 2012 at 5:33 am
newsltd predictability never fails
are those who run newspoll have intelligence of goldfish
by Meguire Bob on Jun 12, 2012 at 6:15 am
Any way the coalition primary is in danger of a majority government any lower then 44 % they will not win the election
by Meguire Bob on Jun 12, 2012 at 6:19 am
Willimam,
Re your comment that the holiday weekend favours the coalition, Bob Ellis in the Independent Australia has the opposite view.
“Much of the Labor vote will be away on the long weekend and no mobile phones will be rung. Those still home will be the old, the ill, the childless, the friendless, and the mad — and they, as always, will favour the Liberals, the Nationals, Family First, the DLP and the LNP.”
http://www.independentaustralia.net/2012/politics/the-coming-coalition-newspoll-miracle/
by smssiva on Jun 12, 2012 at 6:23 am
whoops forget the above post , didnt type it right
the coalition chances of getting a majority government is getting slimmer thier primary is on the border line 44% any lower
the election is lost
by Meguire Bob on Jun 12, 2012 at 6:24 am
Sadly, one develops an ability to read between the lines: I surmised that the Newspoll results was OK for the government since, unlike its usual breathless trumpeting, there was not a word of it at all on the ABC News Radio 6am news bulletin.
Speaking of popularity contests, the Queen’s Birthday Holiday has probably saved share investors here a 3% volatility swing: after Asian markets were up 2% yesterday, NY has closed markedly lower, more than -1%
by Laocoon on Jun 12, 2012 at 6:41 am
Well, OK-ish
by Laocoon on Jun 12, 2012 at 6:45 am
Channel seven morning news (5.30am) was wtte of Gillard fails to make ground with carbon tax cash splash. Personally I was quite happy with the news poll results defecting a general view that the government is governing. If they simply keep governing (no bullshite Ruddstoration distractions) then come polling day next year the LNP landslide will have been a pipe dream of premature expectations
by Smaug on Jun 12, 2012 at 7:12 am
Defecting, bloody predictive text, should be reflective.
by Smaug on Jun 12, 2012 at 7:14 am
If Bob Ellis is reflecting the truth then this News Poll is devastating for the NLP. However I trend to go with Williams assessment above Bobs. More scientific.
by Smaug on Jun 12, 2012 at 7:19 am
Well, not a bad start to the week in the lead up to July1. Newspoll is not disastrous (we have had a long time in the doldrums, when we can be happy about that).
The PM was in good form on Q&A and handled everything bar gay marriage with ease. Maybe the tweets favoured our side, but they were very supportive. (SK got a run).
The cases against Thomson and Slipper are starting to look a lot less credible than their initial media storming.
The economic ship is steady despite uncertainty in Europe. It’s still a time thing, but the prospects for Labor improving among voter support are getting pretty good.
by Gorgeous Dunny on Jun 12, 2012 at 7:24 am
the coalition has lost 7 % off their primary vote in the last month wasnt it 51% at the beginning of may
by Meguire Bob on Jun 12, 2012 at 7:32 am
Those who think a week or two of good news (or rather, the absence of bad news, for a change) should send Labor’s poll numbers skyrocketing are thinking wishfully.
We’re talking about previous Labor voters letting go of two years of negativism in a fortnight? Not gonna happen.
Those who have muscle memory of putting a “1″ in a Labor check-box with the stubby pencil at voting time, but have succumbed to the Abbott rage machine, and who have parked their vote with the Coalition, are going to be harder to move than that.
However, fortnights like the last will soften them up somewhat. A few more phoney Abbott Nightmares biting the dust – the nation still standing after July 1, the compensation hitting, Jackson imploding, Slipper winning his case etc. – in the coming months, will see the real movement.
Every bit of ground Gillard claws back puts matching pressure on Abbott. The polling candle burns at both ends.
It’s the hysteresis effect. The more the polls settle down around today’s level, and with the odd better blip for Labor, the more tenuous is Abbott’s position. As things get better for Labor, they’ll get better, faster.
by Bushfire Bill on Jun 12, 2012 at 7:50 am
Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
The telling result from this Newspoll – as PvO pointed out – was the 44% Coalition vote, virtually unchanged from the election.
The gloves are coming off.
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/accc-rejects-claim-of-25-power-bill-rise-from-carbon-tax-20120611-20659.html
Grattan actually positive about Julia’s QandA effort. And puts a dig in at the gutless one.
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/cool-pm-fires-shots-at-abc-host-jones-20120611-206em.html
Hell! Even Gerard Henderson gives Julia a tick.
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/well-may-we-not-sing-god-save-the-queen-but-let-it-play-on-20120611-2060w.html
David Pope on the Euro woe.
http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/opinion/cartoons/david-pope-20120214-1t3j0.html
More from Ron Tandberg on the Whingeing Nation.
http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/opinion/cartoons/ron-tandberg-20090910-fixc.html
by BK on Jun 12, 2012 at 7:51 am
morning all
well… michelle has sort of admitted that there won’t be a challenge to JG in the near future but fran didn’t agree with michelle (who said the PM was strong on Q & A) – she said it’s just in the eye of the “beholder’? as fran was very narky on the PM for her stance against gay marriage. really fran? surely she is allowed to state her views which, by the way, she did very well.
by Lyne Lady on Jun 12, 2012 at 7:52 am
BB
Your hysteresis analogy is a good one.
by BK on Jun 12, 2012 at 7:53 am
On the subject of Christian Porter, is he in the moderate liberal faction?
It’s just that I heard about a year ago here that Judi Moylan was only behaving herself in this hard-right direction the Liberals were moving due to her understanding that another moderate would be preselected for Pearce when she retired.
If Porter is one of the hard-right Libs, I don’t think Moylan will be happy if he’s preselected.
by Von Kirsdarke on Jun 12, 2012 at 7:56 am
This is getting down and dirty in Florida.
http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/2012/06/11/breaking-gov-rick-scott-florida-will-sue-dept-of-homeland-security-over-voter-purge/
by BK on Jun 12, 2012 at 7:58 am
Morning
by victoria on Jun 12, 2012 at 8:03 am
VK
Perhaps WA bludgers have an idea as to whether Porter is a moderate
by victoria on Jun 12, 2012 at 8:04 am
BB
I did not expect the polling to improve. Agreed. Still a long way to go.
by victoria on Jun 12, 2012 at 8:05 am
Didn’t Julia say “WOULDN’T”?
by BK on Jun 12, 2012 at 8:06 am
Mr Carr has his hands full today
View details ·
View details ·
by victoria on Jun 12, 2012 at 8:06 am
BK
Abbott needs to keep the faith in shockjockland
by victoria on Jun 12, 2012 at 8:07 am
SEN radio 7 am news said that the Labor vote had gone down despite the compensation being paid and that both. JG and TA were tied on PPM at 32. This is 2gb sister station. They always make deliberate errors in their reportage of newspoll results. Sent them email telling them to rectify their error. The ppm is 42 to 38 in favour of the PM. The 32 number is approval rating.
by victoria on Jun 12, 2012 at 8:10 am
Morning All
PVO’s tweet last night got me thinking – i.e. this one
Peter van Onselen @vanOnselenP
Most interesting aspect of Newspoll is Coalition primary down to 44%, almost as low as election 43.8% which of course didn’t get them a win.
I decided to have a look at the primary vote figure from Newspoll prior to the last election and found this
Newspoll 17-19 August 2010 43.4 36.2 13.9 6.5
Coalition – Labor – Greens – Other
As we all know, a primary vote under 44 wasn’t enough to win the election – of course the key figure is that “other” is currently at 11% rather than 6.5% but the Labor faithful would need to take some heart from these figures.
The other key figure is Abbott’s dissatisfaction being worse than Julia’s now
People will say the poll is “same old same old” but there is something underlying in there imo
by womble on Jun 12, 2012 at 8:10 am
@CraigEmersonMP PM done good at #qanda last night. She didnt mention Tony Abbott once. Abbott would have mentioned PM at every sentence
by The Finnigans on Jun 12, 2012 at 8:10 am
How convenientment. @frankellyabc & @michellegrattan talked about #Leadershits but no mention of PM kiliing Abbott in PPM latest #Newspoll
by The Finnigans on Jun 12, 2012 at 8:11 am
Good morning, Bludgers.
About 15 months till the next election – even the MSM’s most hysterical Abbott supporters seem to have accepted that reality – current Newspoll figures are steady with the prime Minister slowing increasing her PPM figures and, as Howard & Keating could attest, not by any means a prophecy of doom this far out from an election – or even when election13 is called.
That our female PM is gutsy enough to volunteer for a Q&A solo gig with a compere who makes little effort to hide his aggressive disdain for her – most questioners likewise – and that she answers calmly, competently and with good-humour, while “he-man” Abbott refuses repeated invitations to appear, are increasingly points in her favour: there seemed an unusually high number of positive Twitter comments.
by OzPol Tragic on Jun 12, 2012 at 8:11 am
OPT
This tweet was by Latika Bourke last night during qanda
by victoria on Jun 12, 2012 at 8:15 am
Methinks a lot of pro-Julia PB regulars were busying tweeting Q&A last night.
And Julia was always going to do well in an environment favourable to her – left-leaning studio audience, fairly soft questions(on the whole) etc.
And to be fair, Gillard avoids the type of media that won’t be friendly towards her, in much the same way as Abbott only goes on 2GB/Today Show/Bolt Report.
by Thornleigh Labor Man on Jun 12, 2012 at 8:17 am
Can anybody seriously think Tony Abbott can last the whole #qanda, if he has the gut to appear, without mentioning PM Gillard once. PM did
by The Finnigans on Jun 12, 2012 at 8:17 am
Good question by the Kouk as to how Abbott would repeal the carbon price
by victoria on Jun 12, 2012 at 8:18 am
Victoria: A lot of the anti Gillard tweets didn’t make it to the bottom of the TV screen, which you’d notice if you’d watched the program online.
by Thornleigh Labor Man on Jun 12, 2012 at 8:18 am
Vic & BB… The polling did improve if you take into account an 80/20 preference split instead of 50/50 and the gap between PPM is wider. Small increments I know, but given William is probably right re the long weekend favouring the Coalition then it is an improvement.
by Gecko on Jun 12, 2012 at 8:18 am
The finns
Abbott would do really well if Grattan was the host
by victoria on Jun 12, 2012 at 8:19 am
And Julia is very embarrassed when Kevin Rudd is brought up, all this trying to laugh it off or make a joke about Tony Jones.
Guilty conscience perhaps?
by Thornleigh Labor Man on Jun 12, 2012 at 8:19 am
Gecko
I would be content for the polling to improve incrementally.
by victoria on Jun 12, 2012 at 8:21 am
Story on Radio National now – 1% of tweeters on #auspol generate 60% of tweets – you lot are busy lol
by womble on Jun 12, 2012 at 8:21 am
Bollocks.
by Gecko on Jun 12, 2012 at 8:22 am
I find it more than a little ironic that some of those who argue the most for a Ruddreturn are also the most fervent when it comes to arguing for gay marriage.
Of course, they’ve painted themselves into this corner by their reflexive adoption of “anything Julia does must be bad”.
Rudd was opposed to gay marriage. Out of deference to him, the National Conference – ignoring the fact that a number of State conferences had voted in support – refused to alter the party platform. Everyone who went to National Conference at the time (and I spoke to numerous delegates) knew that the party wanted to support gay marriage and knew that it wasn’t going to because Rudd would object.
Gillard, on the other hand, has a personal belief about gay marriage which she has neither imposed on the party as a whole – as Rudd did – or on her fellow MPs – as Rudd did.
Yet one is portrayed as standing for a more open and inclusive party and the other for factional control.
Remember – actions are more important than words.
On Gillard’s stance: her argument last night confirmed what I had already suggested here – that her personal belief is just that, a personal belief.
Most human beings have personal beliefs they can’t justify and which are contradicted by their life experience. That doesn’t mean the belief is any the less real.
My mother, for example, argued vehemently against women’s liberation, and speaking scathingly about ‘latchkey kids’ but she spent all of her life working – when she didn’t have to – and the three of us came home to an empty house.
We would often point out the contradiction between what she said and what she did, but she was always able to rationalise her actions (someone once said that rationalisation is more important to human beings than sex….because you can’t go for a day without a rationalisation…)
Finally, a word on ‘internal party polls’. (I hasten to stress I’m not privvy to any).
There’s been a bit of argument here that internal party polls must reflect general polling.
This is incorrect. Again, it’s the difference between general swings and results in individual seats.
Parties don’t pay for information they can get for free. So their polling does not look at general trends.
Instead, each party polls the seats they need to retain and the seats they stand a chance of winning, rather than the broader spectrum. (If you remember, the poll that rolled Rudd was not a general poll. It was a party poll, which concentrated on – from memory – about 30 seats).
Some of these seats are polled on an almost constant basis.
So it is quite consistent for ‘party polling’ to say something different from ‘general polling’ and not be wrong.
by zoomster on Jun 12, 2012 at 8:22 am
zoomster
Gus mentioned last night that internal polling showed better numbers for the govt
by victoria on Jun 12, 2012 at 8:24 am
Posted Tuesday, June 12, 2012 at 7:32 am | Permalink
the coalition has lost 7 % off their primary vote in the last month wasnt it 51% at the beginninhh ofmay,MAQUIRE BOB posted
No one should lose sight of this 7 % above
Also remember what gus said
by my say on Jun 12, 2012 at 8:25 am
my say
Gus was willing William to ban him last night. Not sure how that turned out.
by victoria on Jun 12, 2012 at 8:26 am
Good morning all.
Porter is one of the more intelligent Liberals in WA, and his presence in Cabinet, where he is a clear standout among a string of duds, will be sorely missed.
If he wants to move in federal politics, he should stand for preselection in Tangney. For the last two elections now Tangney members have ditched the hopeless Jensen only to be over-ridden by Lib HQ. Plus, IIRC Porter’s state seat overlaps part of Tangney.
by confessions on Jun 12, 2012 at 8:27 am
VanK (though I haven’t cross-checked Google) CP’s father, is, from memory, Q high-jump Olympian medalist (?silver/ bronze) Charles (Chilla) Porter, whose father Charles Porter was the leader of the Qld Liberal “Ginger Group” during Nicklin’s premiership’
by OzPol Tragic on Jun 12, 2012 at 8:27 am
OMG who wrote this piece of rubbish?
The PM does all kinds of media, including long form interviews on Labor-hostile networks like Sky, as well as the ABC.
I think you are confusing the PM with Abbott, who sticks to his fanboy media outlets such as hate radio and Ch9′s Karl.
by confessions on Jun 12, 2012 at 8:28 am
confessions
No prizes for guessing who said that?
by victoria on Jun 12, 2012 at 8:31 am
Leadership rumblings in Victoria according to today’s Herald Sun.
by Darn on Jun 12, 2012 at 8:31 am