Crikey

Monday, June 11, 2012

Newspoll: 54-46 to Coalition

by William Bowe
Federal Politics 2010-

GhostWhoVotes reports that Newspoll has the Coalition’s two-party lead at 54-46, unchanged from the previous poll, with the primary votes at 31% for Labor (down one), 44% for the Coalition (down two) and 14% for the Greens (up two). Julia Gillard’s net approval is 4% less bad than last time, her approval up two to 32% and disapproval down two to 58%, while Tony Abbott is respectively up one to 32% and down one to 59%. On preferred prime minister, Gillard is up two to 42% and Abbott is up one to 38%.

It should be noted that most of the polling period (Friday to Sunday) covered what in every state but WA was a long weekend, when an unusually large number of potential respondents would be away from home. Given that absent and postal votes tend to favour the Coalition, it might be anticipated that this would bias the result slightly in favour of Labor, although measures may have been taken to correct for this. As far as I can tell, Newspoll used to abstain from polling over the Queen’s Birthday weekend, but changed this policy last year.

UPDATE: Essential Research has two-party preferred unchanged on last week at 56-44, from primary votes of 49% for the Coalition (down one), 32% for Labor (down one) and 10% for the Greens (steady). The monthly personal ratings have Julia Gillard up a point on approval to 32% and down four on disapproval to 56%, with Tony Abbott down four on approval to a new low of 32% and up one on approval up one to 54%. Funnily enough, Newspoll and Essential concur that both leaders’ approval ratings are 32%. Gillard and Abbott are tied at 37% on preferred prime minister, compared with a 38-37 lead for Gillard last time.

Other questions gauge public trust in various institutions, recording a remarkable drop for the federal parliament from 55% to 22% since the question was last asked in September, and other sharp drops recorded for trade unions (from 39% to 22%), environmental groups (45% to 32%), business groups (38% to 22%) and, for some reason, the Reserve Bank (67% to 49%). The poll also finds 60% disapproving of bringing in overseas workers with only 16% approving, 32% believing labour costs and taxes might drive mining companies away against 49% who expect them to carry on regardless.

UPDATE 2: Roy Morgan makes it three polls in one day by reporting its face-to-face results, which it evidently does on Tuesdays now rather than Fridays. This result is Labor’s best since March, their primary vote up half a point to 33% with the Coalition down 2.5% to 42.5% and the Greens up two to 12.5%. On two-party preferred, the Coalition’s lead has narrowed from 55.5-44.5 to 52-48 on previous election preferences and from 58-42 to 55-45 on respondent-allocated.

Categories: Federal Politics 2010-

5107 Responses

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  1. Why do posters torment me with tidbits like this? From restaurants all around the country too that I most likely can never visit.

    Allan, if you dont like that one, i have more :evil:

    by The Finnigans on Jun 13, 2012 at 5:39 pm

  2. I have just used the Mega link provided earlier by LL and again noticed something that has always annoyed me about The Australian online ie when I back space to return here the page I was on reopens again and again…this does not happen on The Age. I was wondering whether this is a deliberate implant to increase recorded hits… (I remember reading last year that News Ltd were once in trouble for fibbing re circulation)… I might be being a conspiracy theorist … but does anybody else have the same problem? (I’m a mac if that makes any difference)

    by Gecko on Jun 13, 2012 at 5:42 pm

  3. Thanks, Finns! :)

    by Allan Moyes on Jun 13, 2012 at 5:42 pm

  4. david 1974
    thanks… i’ll check that out…

    by Lyne Lady on Jun 13, 2012 at 5:43 pm

  5. Is this for freakin real???

    Dr_Tad @Dr_Tad 7m
    OUTRAGEOUS! @ABCthedrum not only apologises to Morrison BUT TAKES ENTIRE DRUM EPISODE DOWN FROM WEBSITE. #auspol

    by victoria on Jun 13, 2012 at 5:44 pm

  6. “Ms Jackson is just articulating Coalition policy, obviously.”

    Alan Tudge,Coalition MP just now on Capital Hill.

    Oh dear, Alan will be in trouble now for telling the truth. :)

    by C@tmomma on Jun 13, 2012 at 5:44 pm

  7. Jennifer Wilson @NoPlaceforSheep 4m
    So I'm guessing if #thedrum have removed episode & issuing apology there has likely been a defamation threat. #scottmorrisonracistpsychopath

    by victoria on Jun 13, 2012 at 5:45 pm

  8. Abbott would go on qanda if it was done in Western Sydney instead of inner city Sydney …

    spur212 Let’s see how long it takes Tony Jones to organise that – not long, I’d say, with the excuse that he took Q&A to Toowoomba so the place where Tony and his mob tell the most fibs (Western Sydney) could be on the cards.

    by BH on Jun 13, 2012 at 5:46 pm

  9. CTar1
    Leveson tomorrow will be amazing – still think ABC should have been televising every night – they really are hopeless – what is ABC24News for if not for this??

    by Lyne Lady on Jun 13, 2012 at 5:46 pm

  10. An Ashgrove Uniting Church minister has promised to perform Christian blessing services for same-sex civil unions.

    Earlier this afternoon Reverend Iris Carden took to Twitter to declare: “No ceremonies for civil unions? See me for a Christian blessing service. @theqldpremier has no authority over the church!”

    A subsequent tweet read: “Sooooo angry Can-Do is using the church to justify discrimination! Politicians should stay out of religion.”

    Will the member for Ashgrove rethink his stupid move?

    by ruawake on Jun 13, 2012 at 5:47 pm

  11. ABC News ‏@abcnews

    Baden-Clay to be charged with murder: lawyers http://bit.ly/Oxo6eI

    by Space Kidette on Jun 13, 2012 at 5:49 pm

  12. victoria @ 1992

    Ha ha. I stopped watching sky after Speers did his interview with AAlbanese re the Slipper case. Speers was hyperventilating regarding the cab charges. It was sickening quite frankly.

    No but you luxuriate on the garage throw around by: -

    http://www.independentaustralia.net/2012/business/media-2/thomson-truth-clouded-by-news-corp-slant-and-smear/

    &

    http://www.vexnews.com/

    :) :) :)

    by Gauss on Jun 13, 2012 at 5:53 pm

  13. Lyne Lady

    Doing Nick Clegg ‘live’ (??) possibly risky – Is he ??

    by CTar1 on Jun 13, 2012 at 5:53 pm

  14. Goos

    You sure sound like a News Ltd hack

    by victoria on Jun 13, 2012 at 5:54 pm

  15. So it’s official. Morrison has a glass jaw.

    by BK on Jun 13, 2012 at 5:55 pm

  16. BK

    The biggest bullies usually do

    by victoria on Jun 13, 2012 at 5:57 pm

  17. I tend to park my car in the garage. :P

    by ruawake on Jun 13, 2012 at 5:57 pm

  18. Lynne lady

    May be they dont enjoy it:-) :-)

    by my say on Jun 13, 2012 at 5:57 pm

  19. Scott Morrison doesn’t come over as a gentle christian soul. Nor does Abbott.
    Funny how the ones who shout the loudest about their ‘sympathy’ do the least.
    Please don’t let this lot take over.

    by lizzie on Jun 13, 2012 at 5:57 pm

  20. Séan‏@esseeeayeenn

    Great economic news – Australia’s AAA rating affirmed – so @ScottMorrisonMP has to push it off the front page with confected outrage

    by Schnappi on Jun 13, 2012 at 6:00 pm

  21. Scott Morrison doesn’t come over as a gentle christian soul. Nor does Abbott.
    Funny how the ones who shout the loudest about their ‘sympathy’ do the least.
    Please don’t let this lot take over.

    Hypocrites are easily seen by those who are not.

    by BK on Jun 13, 2012 at 6:00 pm

  22. BK: Morrison … and Abbott, and Pyne, and Mirabella, and Bishop, and Bishop, and Hockey, and … well, all of them, really.

    It’s the hallmark of a bully. They can dish it out but they can’t take it.

    Maybe if they hadn’t had an empathy bypass at birth …

    by Danny Lewis on Jun 13, 2012 at 6:00 pm

  23. lizzie

    Abbott and Morrison are so far removed to being Christlike so to speak. Christ was a rebel fighting against the establishment and sticking up for the weak and poor in his society.

    by victoria on Jun 13, 2012 at 6:00 pm

  24. Schnappi

    Good point.

    by victoria on Jun 13, 2012 at 6:01 pm

  25. Another classic by george re Scoot

    http://www.flickr.com/photos/64041833@N04/7368008398/in/photostream

    by victoria on Jun 13, 2012 at 6:02 pm

  26. There is a cou try town named thornleigh in nsw according to the map

    by my say on Jun 13, 2012 at 6:03 pm

  27. Danny @ 2021

    Your list of names is composed of individuals who collect people who have small prejudices.

    And the collectors cultivate them.

    by CTar1 on Jun 13, 2012 at 6:04 pm

  28. George is on the case: Morrison demands an apology http://flic.kr/p/ce5Ycy

    by Dan Gulberry on Jun 13, 2012 at 6:05 pm

  29. lizzies @2018

    This “research has shown” would concur.

    ScienceDaily (Apr. 30, 2012) — "Love thy neighbor" is preached from many a pulpit. But new research from the University of California, Berkeley, suggests that the highly religious are less motivated by compassion when helping a stranger than are atheists, agnostics and less religious people.
    Those who scored low on the religiosity scale......... were more inclined to share their winnings with strangers than other participants in the study.

    http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2012/04/120430140035.htm

    by poroti on Jun 13, 2012 at 6:05 pm

  30. Gauss
    Posted Wednesday, June 13, 2012 at 4:48 pm | Permalink

    The WA economy may be going gangbusters but here in NSW we had a negative MarQ with the possibility of a negative JunQ (both the business & consumer confidence forward indicators are negative).

    Two negative quarters = recession. I don’t think Swan’s recent crowing went over too well in Sydney.

    Very naughty if you are trying to call so called recessions on the basis the bureau’s quarterly figures for state final demand. State Final Demand is not GDP as Gittens pointed out recently

    The familiar refrain about the alleged two-speed economy is tailor-made for the media but, as last week’s figures make clear, an exaggeration of the truth. Consumer spending is reasonably strong in the non-mining states, as is employment growth this year.

    In the absence of anything better, economists and the media persist in setting too much weight on the bureau’s quarterly figures for state final demand, unaware they give an exaggerated picture of the differences in gross state product between the mining and non-mining states (because Western Australia and Queensland use much of their income to buy goods and services from NSW and Victoria).

    The risk is the more we repeat the two-speed story to ourselves the more it becomes a self-fulfilling prophesy. This may be part of the explanation for the weakness in non-mining business investment spending, but as yet it doesn’t seem to have affected consumer spending.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/economists-fail-the-reality-test-again-20120610-204bq.html#ixzz1xet2JjRu

    by dave on Jun 13, 2012 at 6:05 pm

  31. How come a redneck rascist like morrison gets an immediate apology,others have to join the que and wait months.

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/media/abc-apology-to-scott-morrison/story-e6frg996-1226394622721

    by Schnappi on Jun 13, 2012 at 6:08 pm

  32. Israel’s Laws of Hospitality

    In the great Leviticus 19 passage from which we get the love commandment we’re told quite concretely what it means: ‘when refugees settle in your land with you, you are not to harm them. Refugees who live with you must be treated just as if they were native-born like yourselves, and you are to love them as you love yourselves, for you were refugees in Egypt. I am the Lord your God (Lev 19:33-34)

    or 23:9 ‘you shall not oppress the refugee, you know what it feels like to be a refugee’. In Deut 10:17-19 God’s own example is also cited: ‘The Lord your God is God of gods and Lord of lords, the great God, mighty and awesome, he shows no partiality, . . . and loves the alien.’ For Jeremiah God’s blessing upon Israel, depended upon real and radical repentance, at least partly defined in terms of their treatment of refugees. ‘If you really change your ways and your actions, and deal with each other justly, if you do not oppress the refugee, the fatherless or the widow …then I will let you live in this place, in the land I gave to your forefathers for ever and ever (Jeremiah 7:6-7).

    http://jmm.aaa.net.au/articles/11867.htm

    Victoria when i read your post thought i would do a search

    by my say on Jun 13, 2012 at 6:09 pm

  33. I have just used the Mega link provided earlier by LL and again noticed something that has always annoyed me about The Australian online ie when I back space to return here the page I was on reopens again and again…this does not happen on The Age. I was wondering whether this is a deliberate implant to increase recorded hits… (I remember reading last year that News Ltd were once in trouble for fibbing re circulation)… I might be being a conspiracy theorist … but does anybody else have the same problem? (I’m a mac if that makes any difference)

    It’s like having herpes.

    You don’t want to talk about it, but YES… I have exactly the same problem.

    by Bushfire Bill on Jun 13, 2012 at 6:09 pm

  34. dave

    Very naughty if you are trying to call so called recessions on the basis the bureau’s quarterly figures for state final demand. State Final Demand is not GDP as Gittens pointed out recently

    He has a tool in Photoshop,Gaussian Blur. :)

    by poroti on Jun 13, 2012 at 6:10 pm

  35. I think some of the new type churches go by the old testement

    by my say on Jun 13, 2012 at 6:10 pm

  36. my say

    Good get. Abbott and Morrison certainly do not practice what they preach

    by victoria on Jun 13, 2012 at 6:10 pm

  37. One journo @StephenLongABC who dared to speak his mind & told the truth abt the Oppn’s AS policy. Now they want to shut him up. OUTRAGE

    by The Finnigans on Jun 13, 2012 at 6:11 pm

  38. mysay Thornleigh is not a country town. It is a suburb of Sydney and was down the road from where we lived in Normanhurst. If the locals want to be snobby they say they live on the Upper North Shore. If they are honest they live on the edge of North West Sydney in beautifully treed surroundings.

    by BH on Jun 13, 2012 at 6:12 pm

  39. Who can we trust to tell lies – Tony Abbott

    The NSW Independent Pricing and Regulatory Tribunal today gave the greenlight to an average 18.1 per cent electricity price rise, incorporating an average 8.9 per cent adjustment for the carbon tax.

    Climate Change Minister Greg Combet said this was below the anticipated carbon tax impact of 10 per cent or $3.30-a-week, as determined by Treasury.

    He said Tony Abbott had claimed the carbon tax would add 20-30 per cent to household power bills.

    “The facts are now coming in, demonstrating the dishonest claims of Mr Abbott,” Mr Combet said.

    I wonder if Abbott is thinking of buying a Greek Villa?

    by ruawake on Jun 13, 2012 at 6:12 pm

  40. This was my contribution at the time:

    http://i.picoodle.com/4b1i0ffj

    by Bushfire Bill on Jun 13, 2012 at 6:13 pm

  41. my say

    I think some of the new type churches go by the old testement

    Only when it can be used to justify appalling behaviour on their part. :(

    by poroti on Jun 13, 2012 at 6:14 pm

  42. http://jmm.aaa.net.au/articles/11867.htm

    by my say on Jun 13, 2012 at 6:14 pm

  43. George – fantastic. Well done
    http://www.flickr.com/photos/64041833@N04/7368008398/in/photostream

    by BH on Jun 13, 2012 at 6:15 pm

  44. Who is that silly man on the Drum?

    by Slav G on Jun 13, 2012 at 6:15 pm

  45. slav g

    Which one

    by guytaur on Jun 13, 2012 at 6:17 pm

  46. The obviously right wing one. Can’t see the his name yes. Very cynical so far

    by Slav G on Jun 13, 2012 at 6:18 pm

  47. @BreakingNews: Greece’s big banks see combined daily deposit outflows of 500-800 million euros in recent days, senior Greek bankers say – @Reuters

    by guytaur on Jun 13, 2012 at 6:18 pm

  48. According to an ABC spokeswoman, Mr Morrison made a formal complaint to ABC managing director Mark Scott, which was passed on to the audience and consumer affairs team as was normal practice.

    So normal practice is that in a months time he gets an email saying that the ABC code of practice was not breached and to go away and stop bothering us.

    by ruawake on Jun 13, 2012 at 6:19 pm

  49. Better version: http://img40.picoodle.com/i52f/aussiebob/14qg_434_u6ow7.jpg

    by Bushfire Bill on Jun 13, 2012 at 6:19 pm

  50. Like Kathy Willcox referring to Mega and Possum@crikey

    by guytaur on Jun 13, 2012 at 6:19 pm

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